Since February 2020，U.S. stock market、The bond market and commodity market continued to plummet for many days，Especially since the stock market experienced four meltdowns in March，Falling into a technical bear market。The Federal Reserve has announced the implementation of “uncapped” quantitative easing policy and other stimulus measures，But based on economic structure、Judgment of long-term comprehensive factors such as industrial structure and income distribution system，The U.S. bet with bet365 is likely to have entered a new round of decline。The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the government’s weak control may become the last “straw” that crushes the U.S. bet with bet365。

As everyone knows，Since the 1980s，The United States has implemented a financial liberalization policy，Promote its bet with bet365 to gradually shift from reality to virtuality。1998，The United States enacted the Financial Services Modernization Act，Completely liberalize financial regulation，The financial capital leverage mechanism is rapidly expanding；The Federal Reserve has implemented a long-term loose monetary policy with the goal of maintaining financial stability since the 1990s；The U.S. government issues foreign debt without restraint。These three factors are intertwined，Together promoted the expansion of virtual capital and flooding of liquidity in the United States。Therefore，Over the course of decades，The U.S. bet with bet365 no longer relies primarily on the real bet with bet365 for actual capital accumulation，But mainly rely on the government、Financial institutions and financial markets create a large amount of virtual capital，To control national and global economic resources。

More than 10 years after the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis，The industrial structure and economic structure of the United States have not undergone fundamental changes，Still based on virtual economic operation as the core，Highly dependent on the issuance of its base currency、The accumulation of leverage and debt，This economic development model is inherently fragile。current，The intensifying spread of the new coronavirus epidemic has made the already fragile U.S. economy even worse。We can do this bet with bet365 following aspects，Make basic judgments on the current status and trend of the U.S. economy。

First，bet with bet365 fundamentals of economic structure，The shrinking situation of the U.S. real economy has not changed。The proportion of GDP created by the U.S. real economy has dropped from about 60% in the 1950s to the 1970s to about 33% in 2019；The proportion of manufacturing GDP dropped from 22% to 11%；The proportion of GDP created by the virtual economy increased from 15% to 34%，The proportion of GDP created by the financial and real estate services industry increased from 12% to 21%。Since 1982，The U.S. economy no longer relies on the real economy with manufacturing as its core，But focus on finance、A virtual economy with insurance and real estate as its core。This trend has not fundamentally changed after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007。

Second，bet with bet365 perspective of international balance of payments，Economic virtualization has caused the United States to change from an exporter of actual products to an exporter of financial assets，The cycle pattern of current account deficit and financial account surplus formed。Since 1982，The United States’ current account balance of international support continues to be in deficit，The international balance of financial items continues to be in surplus，This situation lasted for nearly 37 years (except for 1991 only)。The United States is no longer a net exporter of a large number of products and technical equipment to the world，It is a net exporter of various financial assets to the world，What follows is the transformation from a world creditor country to a world debtor country。Actually，The boom in the U.S. stock and bond markets in recent years，Highly dependent on the Federal Reserve to inject capital into the financial industry (due to the implementation of four rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy，The Fed’s balance sheet expanded three times)，And wealthy people from emerging market countries have injected capital into the U.S. real estate industry (the total number of foreign home purchases in the U.S. from 2013 to 2014 alone reached 92.2 billion U.S. dollars)。

It must be pointed out，In the past three years, the United States has provoked trade disputes and other methods，Inducing global safe-haven funds to continue to increase their holdings of U.S. financial assets in the short term，Created the “recovery and prosperity” of the American bet with bet365，The essence behind this "prosperity" is the continued increase in US debt。The Federal Reserve injects large amounts of cash into the domestic market by purchasing long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds，Seemingly resolving the financial crisis，But in fact, it further stimulates the high degree of virtualization of the bet with bet365。Therefore，The essence of the prosperity of the US stock market is monetary policy、Short-term boom fueled by leverage and debt。The “deleveraging” after the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis only reduced its debt stock from 54% in 2008.95 trillion dropped to about 54 in 2009.3110 trillion US dollars，The debt stock has continued to rise since then。The Fed’s unprecedented quantitative easing monetary policy has caused the scale of narrow money (M1) to increase from 1 in 2008.23 trillion increased to 4 in 2019.0427 trillion US dollars，Added 1.47 times。This fully reflects that the U.S. economic recovery stems from its high reliance on debt leverage and additional currency issuance。When it is necessary to "deleverage" and revive the virtual bet with bet365，The total amount of debt cannot continue to fall，And this can only reduce debt risks and restore and maintain virtual economic growth through faster growth of cash。

　Third，bet with bet365 perspective of the inherent requirements of international trade and industrial chain，U.S. trade protectionism goes against the trend of globalization。The economic and financial liberalization policies implemented by the United States over the past 30 years，Promoted the development of domestic economic virtualization，At the same time, it shapes the current international industrial chain and monetary and financial chain，The United States has a highly dependent relationship with other countries economically。Therefore，The macroeconomic policies used to revive its real economy and maintain its dominant position in international currency and finance are contradictory，The former requires long-term policies to make finance serve the real economy；The latter relies on short-term financial Keynesian policies，It is precisely necessary to further stimulate the development of the virtual economy。The outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia in various countries around the world，A huge stress test for global trade and industrial chains，The current results are displayed，Technology in many aspects、Production cannot be separated from Chinese enterprises and the Chinese market。China has gradually formed a relatively stable position in the high-tech field。Therefore，The epidemic has given rise to some new business formats、New production model and consumption model，It also stimulates China’s domestic market demand for new technologies and their various applications。This further reduces the attractiveness of similar high-tech technologies in the United States to the Chinese market，This may have a long-term impact on the recovery of the U.S. real economy，And worsen the US stock market、U.S. Treasury and Dollar Outlook。

　Fourth，bet with bet365 perspective of macroeconomic policy，Monetary policy and fiscal policy are no longer able to promote the return of the U.S. manufacturing industry and the recovery of the real economy。The deindustrialization process over the past 40 years has resulted in a large number of U.S. manufacturing industries moving overseas，Policy dividends are not enough to offset the production costs driven up by domestic socio-economic problems，On the contrary, it caused flooding of liquidity and expansion of the virtual economy。March 3, 2020，The Federal Reserve lowers the U.S. benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points，Another 100 basis points reduction on the 15th，The traditional interest rate policy space in the United States is exhausted。Fiscal policy，The tax cuts introduced by the Trump administration and the continued increase in government spending，Will push the U.S. fiscal deficit to rise sharply。Data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury，The U.S. federal government’s fiscal deficit reached 1 in 2019.02 trillion US dollars，An increase of 17 compared with 2018.1%。

　Fifth，bet with bet365 perspective of employment structure and income distribution，Economic virtualization has caused the U.S. employment structure to be unreasonable，Growing polarization。After the subprime mortgage crisis to 2019，After ten years of continuous capital injection bet with bet365 United States，Financial real estate service industry recovers slowly，Growth in the industry including accounting、Resumption of employment in professional service industries such as lawyers，The contribution rate of job creation in the professional services industry exceeds 12%；Meanwhile，Manufacturing employment contribution rate is only 9%。Overall，80% of the US employment population is concentrated in the virtual economy and general service industry，Due to high reliance on virtual economy，This employment structure is quite fragile。And，The polarization in the United States is becoming increasingly serious，The real income of the middle class is gradually declining，Most people rely on credit for consumption。Affected by the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic，The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States has reached a record high，The unemployment rate will continue to rise，The polarization between rich and poor has further intensified。

　Sixth，bet with bet365 perspective of US dollar hegemony，It has become increasingly difficult for the United States to sell bonds to other countries，Maintain its hegemony in the international financial system。The United States has the largest financial market in the world，After the US dollar was decoupled from gold in 1971，The United States led the construction of the dollar and oil、U.S. Debt、The circulation mechanism of stocks。The key to this cycle mechanism is，Other countries’ central banks and investors use their international trade dollar revenues to continue to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks。To alleviate the impact of the epidemic，The U.S. Senate passed a trillion economic relief plan on March 25, 2020，The Fed will also provide trillion to stabilize financial markets，And this currency-bond self-circulation creation，Will seriously dilute the value of U.S. dollar assets held by other countries，It will intensify the centrifugal tendency of countries to break away bet with bet365 US dollar system。

　Seventh，bet with bet365 perspective of governance capabilities in response to the new coronavirus epidemic，The series of prevention and control measures adopted by the US government have fully exposed the shortcomings of its governance capabilities。The U.S. government is not only seriously lagging behind in governance measures，And in the way of governance、Lack of professionalism and effectiveness in governance methods，Fully exposed the capital-centered nature of the capitalist system、Rather than a people-centered governing philosophy。If the epidemic continues to worsen in the United States and around the world，It will definitely further shake investors’ interest in US stocks、Confidence in U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar，Thus accelerating the recession of the US economy and the collapse of the dollar system。

　　(Author’s affiliation: bet with bet365 Economics, Nankai University；bet with bet365 Marxism, Nankai University)