Since February 2020，US stock market、The bond market and the commodity market continued to fall for many days，Especially the stock market appeared four fuses in March，Falling into a technical bear market。The Fed has announced the implementation of stimulus measures such as "unlimited" quantitative easing policies，But based on economic structure、Long -term comprehensive factors such as industrial structure and income distribution system，The US economy is likely to enter a new round of decline。The impact of the new crown pneumonia and the weak government management and control may become the last "one straw" that crushes the US economy。

Wish to know，Starting in the 1980s，The United States has implemented financial liberalization policy orientation，Promoting its economy gradually get rid of reality。1998，The United States promulgated the "Financial Services Modernization Law"，Let go of financial supervision thoroughly，Financial capital borrowing the leverage mechanism quickly expands; the Federal Reserve implemented a loose monetary policy that aims to maintain financial stability after the 1990s;。These three factors are intertwined with each other，jointly promoted the expansion of virtual capital and flooding of virtual capital。Therefore，In decades，The US economy no longer depends on the real economy to accumulate actual capital，but mainly depend on the government、Financial institutions and financial markets create a large amount of virtual capital，To control the country and global economic resources。

For more than 10 years after the 2007 subprime crisis，There is no fundamental change in the industrial structure and economic structure of the United States，It is still operating bet365 live casino games with the virtual economy as the core，High dependence on its basic currency issuance、Accumulation of leverage and debt，And this economic development model has internal vulnerability。Current，New crown pneumonia epidemic that has spread has worsened the fragile American economy.。We can from the following aspects，Basic judgment on the current status and trend of the US economy。

First，From the fundamentals of the economic structure，The situation of the shrinking of the real economy in the United States has not changed。GDP created by the real economy in the United States has decreased from approximately 60%in the 1950s and 1970s to about 33%in 2019; manufacturing GDP accounted for from 22%to 11%; and the GDP created by the virtual economy created The proportion increases from 15%to 34%，Among them, the GDP created by the financial and real estate service industry has increased from 12%to 21%。Starting in 1982，The American economy no longer relies on the real economy with manufacturing as the core，Instead, focusing on finance、Virtual economy with insurance and real estate as the core。This trend has not changed fundamentally after the 2007 subprime crisis。

Second，From the perspective of international revenue and expenditure，Economic virtualization has caused the United States to change from actual product export countries to financial asset exporters，A circular mode formed a frequent project account deficit and financial account surplus。Starting in 1982，Continuity of the international revenue and expenditure of U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S.，The continuous surplus of the international revenue and expenditure of financial projects，This situation lasted nearly 37 years (except 1991)。Now the United States is no longer a net exporter with a large number of products and technical equipment for the world，Instead, it is a net exporter of a large number of financial assets to the world，Following Bet365 lotto review the transition from the world's debt country to the world debt country。Actually，The prosperity of the US stock market and bond market in recent years，High dependence on the Fed injects capital to the financial industry (due to the implementation of four -wheeled quantitative easing monetary policy，The Fed's balance sheet has expanded 3 times)，and the wealthy people in emerging market countries injected capital to the US real estate industry (only 2013-2014 that foreigners purchased a total of 92.2 billion U.S. dollars in the United States)。

What must be pointed out is，In the past three years, the United States has provoked trade disputes and other methods in the past 3 years，Trend global hedging funds in the short term continues to increase holding holdings of US financial assets，Created the "recovery and prosperity" of the US economy，And this "prosperity" is essentially the continuous rise of US debt。The Fed injects a lot of cash into the domestic market by purchasing long -term government bonds and mortgage bonds，On the surface, it seems to resolve the financial crisis，But it actually stimulates the high virtualization of the economy。Therefore，The essence of the prosperity of the US stock market is monetary policy、Short -term prosperity of leverage and debt stimulus。The "deleveraging" after the US subprime mortgage crisis only reduced its debt stock from US $ 5.45295 trillion in 2008 to approximately US $ 5.4.31 million，The debt stocks have continued to rise since then。and the unprecedented quantitative and loose monetary policy of the Fed, the scale of narrow currency (M1) increased from US $ 163233 in 2008 to US $ 40427 trillion，increased by 1.47 times。This fully reflects the high dependence of the US economy recovery from the debt leverage and the addition of currencies。In the case of both "deleveraging" and saving the virtual economy，The total debt cannot continue to fall，And this can only reduce bet365 live casino games debt risk through the faster growth of cash, restore and maintain virtual economic growth。

third，Look at the requirements of the international trade and industry chain，US trade protectionism departs from global trend。The economic and financial liberalization policy implemented in the past 30 years，promoted the development of domestic economic virtualization，At the same time, the current international industrial chain and currency financial chain have been shaped，The United States and countries have formed a highly dependent relationship。Therefore，The macro policy used to realize its real economy revival and maintain the advantages of international monetary finance is contradictory，The former needs to make finance a long -term policy that serves the real economy; while the latter relies on the short -term Financial Keynesist policy，It is precisely to further stimulate the development of virtual economy。This new crown pneumonia epidemic has exploded one after another，It is a huge stress test for the global trade and industrial chain，The current results have been displayed，Technology in many links、Production cannot be separated from Chinese companies and Chinese markets。and China has gradually formed a relatively stable position in the high -tech field。Therefore，The epidemic has spawned some new formats、New production model and consumption model，also stimulated the demand for new technologies and various applications in China。This further reduces the attractiveness of similar high -tech in the United States to the Chinese market，This may have long -term affecting the recovery of the American real economy，and deteriorate US stocks、U.S. debt and US dollar prospects。

Fourth，From the perspective of macroeconomic policy，Monetary policy and fiscal policy has been unable to promote the return of the US manufacturing industry and the real economy recovery。The de bet365 Play online games -industrialization process in the past 40 years has led to a large number of outflows in the US manufacturing industry，Policy dividends are not enough to offset production costs that are pushed up in domestic socio -economic problems，Instead, the flow of liquidity and the expansion of the virtual economy。March 3, 2020，The Federal Reserve reduced the US benchmark interest rate to 50 basis points，Relomed 100 basis points again on the 15th，The traditional American interest rate policy space is exhausted。Fiscal policy，The tax reduction policy launched by the Trump administration and the continuously growing government expenditure，It will promote the sharp rise in US fiscal deficits。Data released by the US Ministry of Finance，2019 U.S. Federal Government fiscal deficit reached 1.02 trillion US dollars，increased 17.1%from 2018。

Fifth，From the perspective of employment structure and income distribution，Economic virtualization causes unreasonable employment structures in the United States，Differential diversion is becoming more serious。After loan crisis to 2019，After ten years of continuous capital injection，The financial real estate service industry can slowly recover，The growth of the industry has driven accounts including accounting、Lawyers and other vocational service employment recovery，The contribution rate of employment creation of occupational service industry is more than 12 %; at the same time，The contribution rate of employment in the manufacturing industry is only 9 %。Generally speaking，80%of the employment population in the United States is concentrated in the virtual economy and general service industry，Due to the high dependence of the virtual economy，This employment structure is quite fragile。and，Differential differentiation in the United States is getting worse，The actual income of the middle class gradually decreases，Most people Bet365 app download rely on credit to achieve consumption。Affected by the spread of new crown pneumonia，The number of people applying for unemployment relief in the United States for the first time has reached a record high，The unemployment rate will continue to rise，The phenomenon of polarization of the rich and poor further intensified。

Sixth，From the perspective of the US dollar hegemony，The United States is becoming more and more difficult to sell bonds to other countries，Maintaining its hegemony in the international financial system。The United States has the world's largest financial market，After the 1971 USD is decoupled from gold，The United States dominated the US dollar and oil、US debt、The cycle mechanism of the stock。The key to this cycle mechanism is，Central banks and investors in other countries continue to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks with their international trade US dollar income。The impact brought by the epidemic，The US Senate passed a $ 2 trillion economic assistance plan on March 25, 2020，The Fed will also provide 4 trillion US dollars to stabilize the financial market，And this currency -bond self -cycle creation，The value of US dollar assets held by other countries will be severely diluted，It will exacerbate the centrifugal tendency of the US dollar system。

Seventh，From the perspective of the governance ability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic，A series of prevention and control measures adopted by the US government fully exposed the shortcomings of their governance capabilities。The U.S. government not only lags seriously in governance measures，and in the way of governance、Lack of professionalism and effectiveness in governance means，Fully exposed the capitalist system under the capitalist system、instead of the people -centered governance concept。If this epidemic continues to deteriorate in the United States and the world，It will further shake the investor to the US stock、Confidence bet365 live casino games of US debt and US dollar，Then accelerate the decline of the US economy and the collapse of the US dollar system。

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