"Financial Work,Economic Work; Financial Stability,Economic Stability。"The realization of the" double goal "of stable economy and stable finance,Coordination and coordination of monetary policy and macro -prudential policy。The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly proposes the "improvement of monetary policy and macro -prudential policy 'dual pillar' regulation framework",But two types of policies based on different goals often have superposition and conflict。Different types of financial intermediaries are in risk preferences、Behavior mode、Differences in monetary policy transmission,Determined the "dual pillar" regulation of its development should also take differentiated strategies。
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When monetary policy is "stretched" when the monetary policy realizes stable price and stable financial stability,Macro -prudential policy came into being。In 2008, the financial crisis broke out when inflation was well controlled,This fact breaks the understanding of "price stability is equivalent to financial stability",In the case of stable price, the financial crisis may still happen。For the increasingly important financial cycle issues,Original limitations of the traditional monetary policy framework with stability of currency value as policy anchor are prominent,Macro -prudential supervision represented by the Basel Agreement III can effectively prevent cross -mechanism from a macro -cycle perspective、Financial risks caused by cross -market communication,It forms an important supplement to the regulation of traditional monetary policy。The international community has gradually strengthened the emphasis on macro -prudential policies,countries around the world have explored closely integrated monetary policy with macro -prudential bet365 Play online games policies,Multi -country central banks all undertake the functions of formulating macro -prudential policies。
my country also started the exploration and practice of "dual pillar" regulation earlier,and achieved obvious results。The early window guidance adopted by the People's Bank of China、Credit policy and other operations all contain macro -prudential concepts,Especially in 2003, the People's Bank of China began to introduce loan value ratio requirements,It has a strong forward -looking forward in regulating real estate finance。During the 2008 financial crisis reconstruction supervision framework,,According to the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council,Continuously strengthen and improve the macro -prudential policy framework。officially introduced differential reserve dynamic adjustment mechanisms in 2011,From 2016, the dynamic reserve adjustment mechanism will be "upgraded" to the macro -prudential assessment system (MPA),Incorporate cross -border capital flows into the field of macro -prudential management,Incorporating off -balance sheet in 2017 into the range of MPA broader credit indicators,In 2019, the manufacturing industry medium- and long -term loans and credit loans include indicators such as credit loans into the assessment,The "People's Bank of China Law (Draft for the Draft Consultation of the Draft)" released in 2020 established the basic framework for the implementation of the "dual pillar" policy in my country,The "Macro Protection Policy Guidelines (Trial)" released by 2021 clarifies the elements of the establishment and improvement of my country's macro -prudential policy framework。To effectively strengthen financial supervision,my country's financial regulatory organization structure has also changed with this,formed the State Council's Financial Stability Development Committee、People's Bank of China、The "one committee, one, one, two sessions" financial supervision system led by the China Banking Regulatory bet365 Play online games Commission and the Securities Regulatory Commission,It provides a strong organizational guarantee for the effect of strongly promoting the "dual pillar" regulation policy.。
Differentiated "Double Pillar" regulatory theoretical logic
Differential "dual pillar" regulation is necessary。The 2008 financial crisis caused scholars to question the mainstream macroeconomic model framework,More and more studies have confirmed that financial agencies are far away from "veil",Instead, play a key role in impacting and promoting risk fluctuations。Differences of different types of financial intermediaries in behavioral models and monetary policy transmission,often leads to a large difference in impact on macroeconomic and systemic risks。The use of homogeneous "dual pillars" regulation not only weakens policy effectiveness,It may even be counterproductive。For example,Different incentive assessment mechanisms for different ownership banks,Different from the credit behavior of different types of banks。Compared to non -state -owned banks,State -owned banks have a low level of spillover of systemic risks,The role of financial "stabilizer"。At the same time,State -owned banks' implementation and conduction effect on monetary policy is better than non -state -owned banks,Therefore, the stimulus effect on the macro economy is more obvious。Another example,Different leverage is heterogeneous in risk appetite,Different lever rates under different monetary policy are different from bank behavior。Under a loose monetary policy environment,High leverage banks will increase leverage more than low leverage banks,Therefore, continuous implementation of low interest rate policies can effectively stimulate economic growth,But it may lead to low -leverage banks that can take lower leverage banks to gradually withdraw from leverage,Volleyball to high leverage banks,Then bring financial instability。other,Different supervision strength,It can divide the bank into bet365 live casino games a traditional bank that can obtain the liquidity of the central bank and is strictly regulated and the shadow bank that is not limited by the loan -deposit ratio or capital adequacy ratio。When the supervision of traditional banks is strengthened,Dual pressure incentives to inspire traditional banking business in the dual pressure incentives of bank operating costs and decreased interest spreads,Display of shadow banking activities under regulatory arbitrage,Increasing banking risk of banks。The goal of the "dual pillar" regulation framework is to achieve economic stability and financial stability at the same time,and different types of banks have differences in the impact on economy and finance under different impacts,This is necessary to explore differentiated monetary policy and macro -prudential policy for different banks,Policy effect of strengthening the adverse period adjustment。
The effectiveness of the regulation of differentiated "dual pillars" for development,Three different scenarios need to be considered: (1) A single economic negative imbalance (decline),Financial activities are within the normal target range; (2) a single financial positive imbalance (risk rising),Economic activities are within the normal target range; (3) the negative imbalance of the economy and the positive imbalance of finance,Corresponding to the decline in the real economy and rising with systemic risk。Under the scene (1),Monetary policy implemented with homogenization and tightening of banks in response to economic negative imbalances,May further push high leverage bank leverage,Not only is it not conducive to the optimization and leverage efficiency of bank leverage structure,It will also bring financial imbalance。At this time,Implement differentiated monetary policy for different leverage banks,It can effectively solve the "binary goal" difficulties of economic and financial stability。Under the scene (2),The macro -prudential policy of the tightening Bet365 app download of homogenization of homogeneity to the bank to cope with the rise in financial risks,But it may lead to stricter control of credit quality and mortgage rate under the strong supervision of strong supervision,More high -risk companies cannot obtain credit support from traditional banking channels and then turn to shadow banks,Shadow bank expansion under supervision arbitrage,Bank systemic risk rises。At this time,Differentiated macro -prudential policies should be implemented for traditional banks and shadow banks。Under the scene (3),The traditional "dual pillar" regulation should cooperate with the use of expansion monetary policy and tightening macro -prudential policy,But under the regulation of homogeneous tightening macro -prudential policy, it may lead to further reduction of risk bearing by state -owned banks、Tighten the scale of credit,In fact, the level of spillover of state -owned banks for systemic risks is not high,Instead, it will weaken the implementation effect of the expansion monetary policy。At this time,Differentiated regulation for all heterogeneous banks for ownership can effectively solve this problem。
Differential regulation achieves "dual target"
The public health crisis caused by the epidemic of new crown pneumonia caused a serious impact on global economic activities,Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core,my country's persistence in steady progress,Do a solid "six stability" and "six guarantee" work,In the normalized epidemic prevention and control,my country's economic and social operations gradually tend to be normal,The economy shows huge toughness,But the international and financial development situation facing the international and domestic economic and financial development is still severe,Stimulating economic and preventing financial risks still needs to be weighing。Current,my country should combine the behavior model of different banks with a suitable macro -prudential policy,Actively prevent and resolve financial bet365 live casino games risks,Ensure the realization of the "double goal" of stability and stability of finance。
First,State -owned banks' conduction efficiency of monetary policy is higher than other joint -stock banks,Loose monetary policy has a greater promotion effect on the production of state -owned banks。At the same time,National Holdings can guide the flow of funds through the government's "tangible hand" to the country's key encouragement to the development of industries or fields,Loan risk is relatively low,And state -owned banks do not use economic profits as the first development goals,Pay more attention to loan security,The overflowing effect of systemic financial risks is low。So,Under the requirements of "double target",A moderate macro -prudential policy can be cooperated with state -owned banks,Adopt a tight regulation policy for other joint -stock banks,Agreement of its excessive financial risks to bear behavior。
2,Highly leveraged bank's spilling effect on systemic financial risks is higher than low leverage banks,Especially under the loose monetary policy, form a crowding effect on low lever banks。So,Bank "deleveraging" should pay attention to "structural deleveraging",Introduction to elastic leverage supervision,Especially pay attention to high leverage banks,Especially under loose monetary policy,It is necessary to implement a tight macro -prudential supervision of it,Reduce high leverage bank leverage level and financial risk overflow effect,Promoting the optimization of leverage structure and leverage efficiency of the banking industry。
third,Shadow Bank is a "double -edged sword",On the one hand, it has a positive significance for economic growth,Shadow Bank formed a magnifying effect on the output of macroeconomic output,On the other hand, the expansion of Shadow Bank will also bring financial risk problems。So,Under the requirements of "double target",The governance of the shadow business shall adopt a macro -prudential policy based on the scale of credit as the target or Bet365 lotto review the special capital and allocation of the shadow business,Adhere to "leadership" to resolve financial risks,Strictly prevent financial risks infected with each other、Interweater。
(This article is the general project of the National Social Science Fund "sound systemic financial risk early warning、Research on the Mechanism of Prevention and Control and Emergency Treatment "(18bjy231) phased results)
(Author Unit: College of Finance, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics)
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