2023,The overall prospect of the world economy is still unclear、In the context of the continuous increase in the risk of economic recession in the West,China's economic development "Scenery is good",It has brought strong confidence and motivation to the global economic recovery。Especially for the proposal of new productivity,great response in the international academic circles。How to interpret new productivity from the perspective of the world and China,How to view the new kinetic energy of China's economic development、New trend? Take these questions,The reporter of this newspaper interviewed the director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore、Berthofman, former director of the World Bank China Bureau。
Hao Fuman thinks,The Chinese economy "singing and declining theory" in the current Western media and politicians,It is a Western country trying to transfer the focus of contradictions、Create discourse trap,Results of maintaining its declining national strength and declining global status。China's economic development model not only brings a steady stream of new motivation to the country、New opportunities,It also brings new enlightenment to the world、New Welfare。Now,The economic concept of new productive productivity proposed by President Xi Jinping,It can be regarded as an important part of China's movement to the upper reaches of the global industrial chain。As an advanced productive forces that conform to the new development concept,New quality productivity will become a new driving force for China to achieve 5%of the domestic GDP's growth goals in 2024,It will also become a new engine that promotes the recovery of global economy。
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"China Social Sciences": For the long -term development trajectory of the Chinese economy,How do you evaluate it? Compared with the Western economic development model,What do you think of the uniqueness of China's economic development model?
Hao Fuman:For decades,The Chinese economy has created a miracle that admires the world。Reform and opening up allows China to shift from a closed plan economy to an open market economy,This has promoted the substantial growth of productivity and the profound transformation of the economic structure。For more than 40 years,Under the guidance of good economic policy,China has achieved rapid economic growth in the short term,These policies are proven to be effective today。
I think,The strong leadership of the Communist Party of China and China's stable political system,The key to ensuring China's economic bet365 best casino games growth stability。Facing China's new social conditions and economic issues,The Communist Party of China can always take a very pragmatic attitude。At the same time,Chinese government officials have the ability to deal with increasingly complex economic challenges,and formulate a targeted and stable policy。other,China's long -term population dividends are changing to human bonus,This is of great significance to China's economic and social development。The tradition of savings formed by the Chinese people for a long time means,Once the correct economic policy is implemented,The economic growth model based on high investment and human capital accumulation can be maintained。
I think,Compared with most countries in the world, especially Western economies,,The Chinese government has greater guidance for economic development。This makes some key economic fields,If the field of technology innovation can become the government's priority,and get high -quality market resources tilt。To maintain sustainable economic growth,While configured market resources reasonably,It should also play the natural advantage of market competition,Give the market subject with sufficient autonomy -the Chinese government has a very wise judgment on this。
Compared with the economic policy of Western countries,China has the ability to use the macroeconomic development goals as a powerful and powerful national tool,and coordinate the action of government agencies at all levels,to satisfy the diverse interests of different groups in society,enable each citizen to share the results brought by economic growth。The advantage of China's economic policy is enough flexible、Enough tolerance,It can accommodate different types of diversified policies。As long as these policies meet the ultimate goals of national development,At the same time is enough、Enough precise,Avoid taking the economic stimulus scheme of "large water permeability",It can effectively coordinate the expectations of each interest subject。
Release the potential of the mid -to -long -term productivity growth potential
"China Social Sciences": in recent months,Some Western media questioned the sound of China's economic development achievements.。Some Western scholars say,China is on the edge of the economic crisis,and will be decoupled with the world economy。What do you think of this?
Hao Fuman:Regardless of what adverse expectations of the future of the Chinese economy for the Chinese economy,I always believe that the Chinese economy is not "unbearable" as described by Western countries。On the contrary,China's economy still has great growth potential and development space。Under the background of many Western economies at present,China has made great contributions to the realization of the global economic recovery。
Since the new crown epidemic occurs,Difficulties in debt repayment in some bet365 best casino games developing countries,China takes the initiative and the international community,Help these countries solve debt problems,shows a due responsibility for a responsible country。China can help other countries to further get rid of the impact of the epidemic,Restore normal social order。A series of international data indicates,Other Asian countries are more difficult to achieve the rapid growth of the per capita income level comparable to China。Current,Many Asian countries stay at the middle income level,Because they fail to properly handle national macroeconomic problems。
For decades,China's economy has successfully survived the Asian financial crisis、Global Financial Crisis、New crown epidemic and other tests。China ’s response to the 2008 global financial crisis is a model。China has the advantages of strict management of capital accounts,Therefore, it is not directly affected by the consequences of the US subprime mortgage crisis。Although China at that time was indirectly affected by the decline in internal demand,But these influences have been taken by the strong economic stimulus measures taken by the Chinese government,Especially measures in infrastructure and real estate expenses offset,Therefore, there is no serious consequences。
2023,China's total economic volume steadily rising,GDP achieves a growth rate of 5.2%,Beyond the expected goal of about 5%of the original setting of the Chinese government。Considering the haze of the epidemic,This result is undoubtedly satisfactory。In the past year,Facing Western "decoupling" sanctions、International high debt level、The pressure brought by the external environment such as turbulence in the international financial situation,The Chinese government launched a series of timely time、Effective economic stimulus measures,Showing overcome difficulties、The courage and determination of sharp reform。International Monetary Fund Organization believes,The steady growth of China's economy in 2023 becomes the biggest positive factor in the world economy。
Despite the double difficulties in the domestic and foreign situations,China's economy still achieves much higher growth rate than the Western economy in 2023。Current,Some unique factors that play the potential role in China's economic growth,For example, financial capital advantage and human capital accumulation,No longer exist in many developed countries。The Chinese government is very soberly realized,2024 to achieve "steady progress" through the stable macroeconomics is still the top priority。At the same time,It also needs to solve the risks brought by the current real estate industry and local government finances,and further implement structural reforms,The potential to release the growth of medium and long -term productivity growth to the greatest extent。
Maintain national security and economic benefits
"China Social Sciences": in recent years,The United States is keen on "economic containment" for China,Including technical war、Export control、Trade barriers, etc.,How to look at these measures from an academic perspective?
Hao Fuman:President Biden once "promised",It is declared that the United States is unwilling to implement economic curb strategies for China。But,In fact,The United States has repeatedly carried out technical export controls in China,Therefore, the purpose of economic pressure through the launch of the trade war。Analysis of the intentions behind the behavior of the United States,First, because of concerns about their national security,The United States tries to prevent China from transferring cutting -edge technologies to the major power of major powers to other potential opponents; the second is for the consideration of "U.S. Priority",The United States tries to crack down on China's economy through trade protectionist policies,to protect the domestic industry in the United States。But,In fact, this move in the United States is counterproductive,It has caused a huge negative effect on the local economy and employment of the United States。
Current,Under the background of the intertwined national security and economic development,China has taken corresponding measures to maintain national security and economic interests。In fact,The World Trade Organization allows countries to take measures to protect their national security and economic benefits within a certain range,Therefore,China's approach fully meets the provisions of international law regulations。But,The United States does not accept legal restrictions from the WTO,This is why the United States has repeatedly obstructed the World Trade Organization Appeals to appoint new judges in recent years。According to the intention of the United States,So here,The World Trade Organization cannot make effective rulings,The US government can strengthen trade barriers as you want,Dajie unilateralism。
These behaviors in the United States have appeared during the Trump administration,Bayeng continued to implement measures such as additional tariffs。Recent,Trump announced,If you are elected to the President of the United States again this year,He will increase the intensity of tariffs on Chinese export products。other,Some European countries show concerns about the export of Chinese products, especially electric vehicles and renewable energy equipment exports,Think that these products are eroding the industrial center of Europe,Therefore, these European countries cannot adopt the possibility of trade restrictions on China in the future。
"China Social Sciences": 2023,The Chinese government has released the guidelines including "28 Article 28 of the Private Economic Development",To encourage the development of the private economy。How do you view the significance of the private economy to the national economic system?
Hao Fuman:I appreciate the many efforts made by the Chinese government to promote the development of the private economy。The private economy as an important part of the Chinese economic system,In technical innovation、The role of productivity improvement is important,It is also a key factor in promoting the high -quality development of China's economy。From the perspective of the Chinese government,The market should play the decisive role of resource allocation,The powerful of the private economy is conducive to the realization of this role。Therefore,The Chinese government insists on adhering to the state -owned economy as the main body,Incorporate the private economy as an inseparable component into the national economic system。At the same time,The Chinese government believes that it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of private sector,to ensure that the operation of the private economy meets the interests of the entire society。
In the process of strengthening the supervision of the private sector,Some Western analysts believe that the Chinese government is too severe and too sudden in implementing the new rules。Some Western scholars wondered whether China's vast market really has a place in the private economy,or whether the Chinese government is more inclined to rely on state -owned enterprises。But,The Chinese government's measures to "promote the development of private economy 28" measures、Encourage private sector to invest and participate in the formulation of new policies for enterprises -related enterprises,enough to prove the importance of the Chinese national economic system to the private economy。
High -quality development is of world significance
"China Social Sciences": from the perspective of the world and China,How to view China's new development pattern and high -quality development?
Hao Fuman:In some Western political circles,Some views mistakenly believe that China's economic model is incompatible with the market -based economic system established by the WTO。These error views believe,Some major economic strategic plans in China,If China supports the industrial field under the framework of "dual cycle",,and related industrial policies introduced,Basically incompatible with the open market economy。
I think,"Dual Cycle" is a development strategy that conforms to the laws of China's economic operation。When the economy becomes rich,The relative price of non -trading products (such as services) will rise relative to trading products,and the share of international trade in the total amount of GDP will naturally decrease。This also means,Expressing over time,Domestic demand should play a greater role,To avoid insufficient demand。But,This regulation is difficult to automatically achieve,It needs to rely on changing the revenue bet365 Play online games distribution structure and promoting savings -investment balance to achieve。In this regard,For the current China,Re -assign fiscal policy、Population dividend policy、Social Security Policy and other economic policies,It can help a new development pattern based on the "dual cycle"。
High -quality development is more efficient for achieving、More innovative、More shared、Sustainable economic growth of environmental friendly type is important。As the Chinese government realized,China's past economic growth is rapid,Can make hundreds of millions of people get rid of poverty,But at the same time it is also unbalanced、Unlimited、Not coordinated。Therefore,As the increasingly complicated external environment in China、Strategic goals proposed in the background of domestic development entering the new stage,High -quality development is not only in line with China's actual needs,It is also worthy of the eager welcome of countries around the world。
New quality productivity will play a global effect
"China Social Sciences": New productive productivity is a keyword as a "government work report" this year,Wide attention from the international community。How do you think of the era background and strategic significance of the new productive productivity?
Hao Fuman:Today's world economy still faces many risks。Although some national central banks currently use the "data -driven" method to regulate monetary policy,A certain results have been achieved in confrontation,But the momentum of high inflation in most areas in the world is still continuing。other,Developing countries still carry heavy debt burden,The geopolitical situation in some regions continues to be tight。It is worth sure is,Solution of some global risks,Including debt solutions in developing countries have made some progress,And China plays a pivotal role in it,For example, China has played a constructive role in the solution of debt problems in Zambia。
Forecast according to the International Monetary Fund,The global economic growth rate in 2024 is only 3.1%,It is still far below the average level of the past ten years。This requires economic structural reforms globally,Economic production efficiency、Innovation to achieve potential higher economic growth rates。
New productive productivity proposed by China,Another major concept of Xi Jinping's economic thought,It can be regarded as the Chinese government under the guidance of President Xi Jinping to promote economic growth through innovation drive,Therefore, the economic recovery is further stimulated after the epidemic、The embodiment of boosting economic confidence。Today,China is becoming an innovative economy,Independent innovation in the high -tech industry is increasingly becoming a context of promoting the national economic growth engine,New quality productivity is a economic concept characterized by the innovative configuration bet365 live casino games of production factor,It formally proposed that it coincides with time。
From an international perspective,New productive productivity can be regarded as an important part of China's progress in the global industrial chain,It will undoubtedly have positive significance for the development of China and even the world economy。New productivity can help China's manufacturing industry to achieve modernization、Automation,will also open up new economic industries,Shape new economic model。This will not only help China's own modern industrial system construction,It will also benefit the modernization process of trading partners in developing countries。
For bet365 best casino games developing countries,China's status as the main engine as a world economic growth is very critical。The global effect played by this position can bring many benefits to developing countries,Especially some commodity export countries can really benefit from China's economic growth。In recent years,China continues to expand overseas investment,Investment in infrastructure and business fields,Bring many cooperation opportunities for the domestic economic development of these countries。Believe in the future,New productivity will be further promoted at the international level,Injecting new kinetic energy into the global economic recovery。
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