Although the Brexit has been settled，But the future of the European Union does not seem to become more clear because of this。According to the latest public opinion survey results based on the "European Radio"，The public proportion of the public holding an active position on the European Union decreased from 45%in July 2019 to 40%in July 2020，The crowd who holds a negative attitude towards the EU within the same period has increased from 17%to 19%。The polls conducted by the European Foreign Relations Committee in 14 members of the European Union reflect similar results。Except Spain，More than half of the domestic respondents in China think，The existing EU may disintegrate in the next 10-20 years，Among them, France holds the highest proportion of people holding this position，reached 58%。

The election results of the ninth European Parliament also reflect the approximate negative trend。Except Portugal、Luxembourg、Lithuania、Malta、Cyprus、Romania and Latvia，Other 21 countries including the UK have suspected European populist parties in this parliamentary election。In 751 seats，33 political parties with populist colors have obtained 224 seats，44 seats from 180 seats in 2014。Although such political parties have joined or set up different party groups for different political demands，But the European People's Party (EPP) and Social Democratic Party (S&d) The seats of the mainstream and right mainstream party groups in the middle and right bet365 Play online games and right mainstream parties such as，decreased from 221 seats in 2014 and 191 seats to 182 and 154 seats。The European Foreign Policy Expert Susi Dennison, the European Foreign Policy Commission, is so exclaimed，There is not much time left for the European Union，Must take strong measures to resist the spread of suspicion。

The negative cognition and performance of the EU above belong to the category of suspicion of Europeanism，But it is not a substantial threat to the European Union that is not the "European Suspecter" in the general sense，Instead of the "anti -European"。According to Paul Taggart's research conclusion，All "anti -European" will inevitably hold doubt European orientation，But the suspect that the European person does not necessarily be "anti -European"。So，Suspected Europeanism, on the one hand, reflected as an incoming attitude that is incorrectly limited by specific conditions，On the other hand, it also includes the concept of thorough unconditional opposition to integration。Based on this，Tagut further divides suspicion of Europeanism into two categories: rigid and flexible。The former is a complete rejection of European politics and economic integration，Opposition to the status of the members of the country's joining or retaining the EU;。

How much is a firm "anti -European" in the European Union? What should I look at the results of the above polls and the results of the European parliament election?

Almost all poll results before the Brexit referendum indicate the results of the Brexit.，More than half of the respondents tend to stay in the United Kingdom to stay in the European Union，But the final referendum has a Bet365 lotto review "small probability" result。If the "secondary election" theory of the "secondary election" theory of the European Parliament is based on the European Parliament according to Karlheinz Reif，You can get an approximate inference，That is, the results of the European Parliament election of the "second -class" do not necessarily reproduce the domestic elections in the "first -class election" category。

Laifu actually proposed a three -dimensional election explanation paradigm。First of all, "first -class election"，mainly refers to the domestic election of the government or the presidential candidate。This type of election not only determines the establishment of the new government at the national level，At the same time, it also directly affects political politics in a specific stage、The direction of economic and social development。Followed by "Second Election"，It mainly includes various local elections and European parliamentary elections。Last "third -class election"，That is, the government and non -governmental organizations and the media have carried out various public opinion tests and surveys to understand public opinion。

The results of the research results of Lafv and Simon Hix are all stated，"Second Election" not only is obviously not as good as "first -class elections"，And the small party、Emerging political parties and the votes with extreme political orientation parties are relatively higher than the mainstream party。The main reasons include two points: one is that the importance of the "second -class election" is obviously less than that of the "first -class election";，The transition from "non -sincere selection" bet365 live casino games to "sincere selection" and changes in the orientation of the voter party。Due to the importance of the "first -class election" related to the problem，Voters are more "voting with the brain"，Select related political parties and candidates from a strategic perspective。But in the "secondary election", including the European Parliament election，Voters are more inclined to "vote attentively"，That is, from the perspective of personal preferences, choose political parties and candidates。

Laifu and others did not demonstrate the relationship between "third -class elections" and "first -class elections" in detail，But one thing is clear，That is, the results of the polls in the general sense of polls in the general sense and the correlation between the final voting selection of voters in the "first -class election"，Obviously lower than the "secondary election"，The significant differences between the results of various polls and the final referendum in the Brexit process in the previous Brexit further prove this。

Continuing the analysis logic of Laifu and others，Only data that is more certain based on investigation than ordinary public opinion，It is possible to make a more closer to facts of the EU's future。Academic representatives of many European countries in 2001 launched the "European Social Survey" (ESS) project at the University of London City College。ESS The political attitude and other information of the respondents participated in more than 30 European countries through face -to -face surveys，A total of 8 rounds of surveys have been conducted to date，The result of the questionnaire has been widely recognized and widely used in the academic world。

The data released by ESS also belongs to the category of soft data bet365 Play online games such as public opinion testing and questionnaire interviews，But the voting party of the voter's party is an objective statistics performed after the election，A certain extent has the determination of hard data such as close official statistics。I found that ESS was found after the screening results of ESS's voting results in 2016 and 2018.，Vote to support left in the national parliamentary election、Middle、8269 samples of the right -wing populist party，Agree with the Brexit of its party is 2156，26.1%of this type of sample。Even the radical right -wing party voters with the strongest anti -European orientation that are generally recognized by academia，Samples that support their party Brexit account for only 30.4%of the total number of this type of sample。The proportion of mainstream political parties agreed with Brexit is relatively lower，Only 11%of the sample amount。Looking at it overall，In 26940 total samples，4210 voters who support their party Brexit，Only 15.6%of the total amount of all samples。This can be seen，The suspicion of Europeanism under the EU's rule reflects the trend of continuous spread，But the proportion of "anti -European" in the field of hard doubt is not high。

Strong Europeanist is worried that Brexit may promote the Domino brand -type Brexit，But the above statistical results of ESS indicate that most voters do not advocate Brexit。But，The EU undoubtedly needs to take Brexit as an opportunity to make profound reflection and reform，Otherwise, the continued spread of suspicion of Europeanism will eventually endanger its existence。Examine from the perspective of a relative long cycle，Bet365 app download Integrated and dewraded、Strong Europeanism and Suspected Europeanism、Enter the European and Brexit, etc.，It is always the political force and value appeal that complement each other in the European Unification process。Brexit is basically a temporary imbalance of this dynamic balance mechanism，Its root is multiple rounds of high -density since the early 1990s、Large -scale deepening and expanding process。

From the perspective of the diverse values ​​of the foundation of the EU，European integration is not based on the suppression of suspicious Europeanism and its forces or even eradication，This is under the relatively open and diverse political and social conditions in Europe，Not feasibility，It is not necessarily necessary。EU's 70 years of success and performance，In fact, the dynamic balance of moderate control of suspicious Europeanism is basically laid，This is also the fundamental of continuous integration and repeated success。In this sense,，A new round of reforms promoted by the European Union by Brexit，It does not necessarily deviate from the political goals established by the Roman Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty，Its theme should be concentrated in the dynamic balance mechanism that restores this temporary imbalance。Is it necessary to point out，A new round of reform process that EU has to start，It will face unprecedented resistance and difficulties，Among them, the biggest challenge is the general flow of populism and suspicion discovered by Tagut et al.，That is, the formation of the power of "populist suspicion"。

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