There are downward risks in the world economy
World Bank "Global Economic Outlook Report 2020" release
January 10, 2020 08:05 Source: "China Social Sciences" January 1020, January 10, No. 1855 Author: This reporter Zhao Yuan Wang Junmei Wang Xiaozhen

January 8,The World Bank released the "Global Economic Outlook Report 2020"。Report prediction,With the gradual recovery of trade investment,Global economic growth in 2020 will be 2.5%,slightly increased slightly from 2.4%in 2019,But the risk of economic downward still exists。How to resolve the crisis、Promoting economic stable growth,The reporter interviewed relevant experts and scholars on the above issues。

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Report proposed,The downward risk of global economic prospects still exists,These risks may slow down economic growth。Global economic risks include the situation of trade tensions and the uncertainty of trade policies.、The decline of the major economies exceeds expectations,and the financial turmoil of emerging markets and developing economies。Report estimation,Negative effects due to the increase in previous tariffs and increasing uncertainty,The US economic growth rate in 2020 will slow to 1.8%。Due to weak industrial activities,Bet365 app download The economic growth rate of the euro zone in 2020 will drop to 1%。

Reporter,On the one hand,In the past 50 years,Four waves of debt accumulation in the world。The latest wave of debt growth since 2010,The largest growth scale、The fastest speed、The widest range。Although the current low interest rate has reduced some risks related to high debt,But the previous wave of basic debt accumulation ended with a universal financial crisis。On the other hand,Slowing productivity increase。Productivity growth is the main source of income growth and driving force for poverty reduction,Since the global financial crisis,Its growth rate has slowed significantly than at any time in 40 years。In emerging markets and development economies,The economic slowdown is reflected as weak investment、Slowing efficiency growth and re -configuration of resources between departments。

David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, said,The current growth rate and scope of the scale of debt are worrying。Policy makers should pay attention to debt management,Improve transparency,So as to increase investment and promote economic growth,Make sure the debt it bear can promote sustainable development。

Report analysis,The inflation rate of low -income countries has fallen from 25%in Bet365 lotto review 1994 to 3%in 2019。More flexible exchange rate system、More independent central bank、Lower government debt and a more benign external environment support the decline in the inflation rate of low -income countries。Report Suggestion,Under the circumstance where the risk of fiscal pressure and exchange rate impact is increasing,Policy makers need to strengthen monetary policy framework and the central bank's ability to maintain low inflation,Use more effective policy to replace price control。

Zhang Guihong, director of the United Nations and International Organization Research Center of Fudan University, said in an interview with this reporter,Global political and security risks is also worthy of attention。2020,The international situation will generally be in an unstable situation,Some areas may even be trapped in turbulence and conflict。The scale and sustainable development of the conflict will affect the international trade and investment environment of some countries and regions,Remove the price of commodity prices,Then deepen the uncertainty of the world economy。

 China provides economic growth stability strength

Report estimation,Bet365 app download The economic growth rate of developed economies will fall to 1.4%in 2020,Part of the reason is that the manufacturing industry Bet365 app download continues to weak。2020,The growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies will reach 4.1%,But because the export and investment are lower than expected,About 33%of emerging markets and developing economies will also slow。

Report predict that China's economic growth in 2020 will be 5.9%。For this,Zhang Guihong said,China's economic growth rate is slightly lowered,But still higher than most emerging economies。China is already the second largest economy in the world,The steady growth of China's economy will continue to provide the greatest stability force for the growth of the world economy。

Professor Feng Yongqi, a professor at the Department of Finance of the School of Finance of Jilin University, said in an interview with this reporter,GDP increased by 6.2%year -on -year in the first three quarters of China。Looking at the quarter,China's year -on -year growth rate of GDP in the first three quarters of China was 6.4%、6.2%、6.0%。According to the industry,,The year -on -year growth rate of the first industry is 2.9%、The second industry is 5.6%、The tertiary industry is 7.0%。These data indicate,Although China's economy still has downward pressure,But the downward speed slows down,Economic operation is generally stable,Constantly Bet365 lotto review optimize the structure。Outlook 2020,China will further deepen reform,Accelerate and improve the level of open opening,Especially in the financial industry。Internationalization of RMB、"Belt and Road" construction and financial openness will further cooperate with each other,Promote the development of China's economy in depth。

 Multiple measures to promote stable economic growth

Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank Group Development Forecast Bureau, said,The current global low interest rate only provides unstable protection for preventing the financial crisis。In the fragile global economic environment,It is important to reduce debt risks by improving policies。

Fair growth of the World Bank Group Group、Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, deputy governor of finance and system, thinks,Decision makers should seize the opportunity for structural reforms,To promote a wide range of economic growth,This is very important for poverty reduction to。Improve the business environment、rule of law、Policies for debt management and productivity,will help to achieve continuous growth。

World Bank economist Franziska Ohnsorge said in an interview with this reporter,Emerging economy market plays an important role in world economic growth,Global economic expectations are slightly bet365 best casino games improved from large extent from the emerging economy economy recovery,But the economic growth of emerging economies in the future still faces downward risks。If the situation of trade tensions is relieved in 2020,will be conducive to the development of manufacturing,Global economic growth may have an upward trend。

Yang Zhimin, director of the Regional Cooperation Research Office of the Latin American Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with this reporter,The only certainty in the global economy in 2020 is the "uncertainty", the "gray rhino" is still on the way to attack。Face Challenge,countries around the world, especially major economies,It is necessary to combine the responsibility of responding to its own economic reform and development with the responsibility of working together to create a good external environment。Only this,Only to boost the growth of world economic growth、Promote the sustainable development of the economy of various countries and create a new opportunity、Inject new power。

Editor in charge: Changchang
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