Global development dilemma and prospects of the post -epidemic era
June 13, 2022 09:24 Source: "Chinese Social Sciences" June 13, 2022 Issue 2425 Author: Bai Lebi

US "Foreign Policy" magazine recently published "Go to the Tide of Globalization and its danger".,Now,A new "de -globalization" consensus formed in the Western world。Some people think,Globalization is moving towards a bad ending。With the continuous spread of the epidemic of new crown pneumonia at the global level,Globalization process has been the biggest impact since World War II。In fact,The crisis in globalization has been revealed before the epidemic,The epidemic can be regarded as the "catalyst" of this crisis。Long -rooted global problems for a long time、Current unpredictable international situation、"Adverse Globalization" from dark flow to great raging,All bring unprecedented resistance and obstacles to the current globalization process。So,What kind of development dilemma is facing the current globalization process? What kind of social contradictions in Western countries are reflected behind "against globalization"?,This article sorts out the academic perspective and interviewed relevant scholars。

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Associate Professor Thomas Hale, an associate professor of Public Policy of the Blavanik Government College of Oxford University, and David Held, a professor of politics and international relations at Duoren University, pointed out in a joint article,The order after World War II benefited from a basic and benign international system cycle。In this cycle,The deepening globalization makes deeper international cooperation inevitable。The number of international institutions and their branches has increased from hundreds of in 1950 to more than 7,000 today。

As the proposal of the concept of "embedded liberalism" John Ruggie said,It is in a system that "embeds" the global economy in a system that complements domestic regulations and global governance,Industrialized countries can maintain economic miracles。But,Heier and Held pointed out,To some extent,This system runs well。With more and more countries with diversified demand, they join the global economic system,Reaching consensus becomes more difficult than ever。Global issues began to complicate,Mutual dependence between the country needs to make in -depth adjustments。The ending with it is,Many international institutions are in stagnation and fragmentation,Global governance is in trouble。

American Political News Website "POLITICO" publication,The vigorous development of globalization over the years is now ushered in a new reality that has suffered huge setbacks。The epidemic in the new bet365 best casino games crown pneumonia has achieved things that the protectionism in the United States cannot do,It has also achieved things that anti -global advocates have not been able to do over decades。The impact of the epidemic popularity on globalization has prompted the politics of various countries to urgently seek new solutions。a few years ago,Reconstruction of the political efforts of global trade,Follow the interests of exporters and workers again and again、Call for a "better global agreement"、Strengthen environmental and labor protection、Persevere in the political slogan of fair trade。But,From the White House to the Congress to the major business schools,The theme of the debate is no longer the extent globalization promotes "trade fairness" or how multinational companies benefit from "operating profit",Instead of the raging of the epidemic, what risks and uncertainty have been added to globalization。

Article comment,Facing personal protection equipment in all countries around the world、Dives from the sudden shortage of various materials such as drugs to laptops,This epidemic shows the world's basic products of imports naked,Especially dependence on products from China。The interruption of the global supply chain is no longer the content of the economics textbook,Instead, a question that is in front of it。

In the new season focusing on the special interview of the new season of "Politico","Vulnerability" instead of "efficiency" has become the keywords in the mouth of business leaders and economists。Adegoke Oke, deputy professor of Kerry Business School of Arizona State University in the United States, compares the global supply chain to a tug of war: If a participant poured down,Others in the team may also fall down -the weak link actually determines the strength of the chain。"In the past,We have been teaching students how to optimize the supply chain,Reduce cost,To maximize the efficiency of the supply chain to the greatest extent。Over the years,Many companies in the world have a good experience in reducing the cost of reducing costs。But,The consequences of doing this are,When encountering sudden pressure,The supply chain will become very fragile。”

Tom Dusterberg, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute in the United States, believes: "The new crown pneumonia's epidemic is done like lasers to pay attention to this problem,70%of the global port entering port is affected by it。Prove to the facts,Global supply chain is very fragile,It must make it more flexible。Effective ways of rejuvenating 'recovery power',is to transfer the multinational production of key products back to the country,But this is undoubtedly not conducive to the globalization process。”

Heier and Held pointed out with sharp writing: bet365 Play online games "Now,The ability to manage globalization is constantly shrinking。This consequences are serious。We are unable to control the financial crisis of 2008-2009,As a result, the world has lost millions of family wealth and millions of jobs; we have not yet established adequate protection measures to prevent the outbreak of the next crisis; our fragile international refugee system has not reduced the conflict of conflicts due to conflicts. And the pain of millions of people who are out of discharge。Although the international community has made some progress in slowing the global climate change,But serious droughts that are still frequent worldwide、flood、Storm and fire highlights that we still have a long way to go。”

  Decoration of globalization leads to economic recession

Heier and Held pointed out,Due to a series of global problems, it failed to deal with it in time,Treating one after another "de -globalization" wave and protest movement。The domestic foundation that the world order depends on survival is attacked,The international system is further weakened -this is a self -enhancement deadlock,The deadlock in turn has reduced the ability to manage globalization and dealt with global problems in human beings。A large part of the population in the world has been affected。

Kerry Brown, Director of the Chinese Research Institute of the King Institute of London, England, said in an interview with this reporter,In recent years,Some global resistance believes,Globalization has led to the decentralization of national power。To participate in the globalization system,All countries have to give up some sovereignty。In their opinion,Globalization has a general erosion and restrictions on sovereignty in various countries,This is especially true for western powers that dominate international affairs。

Analysis of the "Foreign Policy" magazine in the United States to,With the chaos and crisis at the global level, the crisis follows,A new voice formed in the developed economy in the world: it is time to go global。These countries advocate stricter to control border、Create the so -called elastic closed supply chain、Pursue self -sufficiency in key technical、Regardless of global trade rules, trade sanctions are imposed on opponents ... but,De -globalization also has its own cost and danger,leading to rising from inflation to labor shortage,From the beginning of protectionist to the pressure on the global financial system, many consequences。The world needs strong measures to curb this momentum,and help the governments of some countries return to the right track from the tendency of extreme division。

For the past 40 years,Globalization has played an important role in controlling inflation。multinational enterprises through a more detailed supply chain、bet365 Play online games Buy from cheap places、Use awareness production to reduce inventory and other methods to reduce costs,This makes the price of most consumer products still maintain a downward trend when the global demand is soaring。Free trade also forced domestic companies to lower the price,Competition with imported products。From 1980-2010,China、The opening of the local market in India and other countries to the global economy has doubled the global labor scale,The resulting competition limits the wage growth of the developed economy。Although in the United States or Europe,Stagnation of wages is not worth celebrating,But it objectively suppress inflation pressure。

Analysis of the "Foreign Policy" magazine,But,The current trend of de -globalization has exacerbated inflation,Especially in the United States。a few years ago,The Trump administration's trade tariff policy has pushed up the local wood、Iron、Price of solar panels, etc.。Subsequent,New Crown Pneumonia's epidemic caused the factory to close、Strict border limit、The service economy is almost paralyzed ... All these have increased inflation pressure。other,It is also necessary to carefully review and criticize the Western trade and financial sanctions on Russia。Western banks frozen Russian central bank foreign exchange assets、Russia is also prohibited from importing most Western products,These actions will force some countries in the global network to develop to the introverted economic model,The benign governance rules that "allow most parts of the world to benefit from global trade" will be further weakened。Strict economic sanctions on Russia disrupted global energy and food supply,Accelerated the rise in fuel and food prices around the world。The consumer price index in March 2022 increased by 8.5%compared with the same period of 2021,The highest since 1981。In view of the uncertainty of Russian oil and natural gas supply,The inflation rate in Europe is almost the same as that of the United States,It may rise rapidly in the short term。Central banks of European countries are considering increasing interest rates to suppress price increases,This may lead to a new round of economic recession。Many Asian countries urgently hope that the United States will take new measures in trade to deal with the globalization crisis,However, the American government is advocating industrial return。

 Averse globalization reflects the capitalist crisis

With the sound of globalization, one after another,The upgraded version of "Adverse Globalization" swept comes。In recent years,"Averse Globalization" in Europe and the United States is cooked,Discussion on its roots and essence has also become a major research focus in the academic community。Scholars bet365 Play online games generally think,"Adverse Globalization" reflects the conflict between the economic interests between the contradictions of the western developed countries,Some so -called "global losers" blame the cause of the failure as the uneven distribution of global dividends。

According to the World Bank Report,Globalization of more than 40 years has caused transnational corporate executives、Global wealth such as Wall Street Bank Giants accounted for the top 1%of the wealthy wealth increased sharply。This trend allows the upper class of developed countries on the one hand to continuously seize huge profits in the process of globalization,On the other hand, the abandoned worker class and other white conservatives have become more and more resistant to globalization。

In the best -selling book "The Sad Song of the Rural People",J. D. Vance (J. D. Vance) referred to the white American workers as "the most pessimistic group in the United States"。The author grows up under the background of the increasing decline of the US "Rust Rust Zone" manufacturing industry under the impact of economic globalization,He revealed the despair and weakness of the workers in the area in the face of the salary of the wages in the area。Book pointed out,The living conditions of the group of "Rust Rust Zone" are no different from the underlying black group。"What is more terrible than poverty is loss of hope",The author describes this way。Under the more imbalanced wealth differentiation,The dissatisfaction of the white civilians in the southern United States gradually accumulate and explode,Social cracks that are difficult to facilitate have caused "political polarization"。

"If the workers in the rust zone 'have not lost their jobs or they have not arrears mortgage,What will happen to President Trump's election prospects of that year? If the refugee crisis has not erupted in Europe,What is the possibility of Brexit? "Heier and Held asked in the text。

Two people point out,Faced with frustrated globalization,Some extreme nationalists will naturally respond,Try to re -seek control from national sovereignty。Such a political ecology allows nationalist politicians and populist leaders to succeed。Global Expert Dani Rodrik once said,The wise government can use this opportunity to monitor globalization more effectively。However, the fact is,These "successful" leaders often completely reject global cooperation and openness,Nothing to explore effective solutions。This often exacerbates the political illness that originally allowed them to be organic and help them to board the power "altar"。

Javiel Vadell, a professor of international relations at the Monasklas, Brazil, explained to reporters from the perspective of global expansion of capitalist production methods,"Adverse bet365 live casino games Globalization" is the adverse consequences of capitalism for self -regulation globally。Globalization formed in the past for a long time,Essentially led by developed capitalist countries in Europe and the United States、New liberal globalization based on financial freedom,The governance of financial freedom is subject to Western hegemony、USD、Given and rule of international private capital。Current,The "pole differentiation effect" of capitalism is creating more suffering and inequality in western developed society。The epidemic is at the same time as the global level "inverse globalization".,It also exposed serious social problems in Western society,Amblyr can come to power in power, it reflects the institutional crisis and social contradictions in the capitalist society。With the era of the monocular world, it becomes the past,Global Capitalism is in the process of decline and depletion。At the end of the 20th century、In the 21st century, imperialism (also known as "monopoly capitalism" or "modern capitalism") in the United States is the final stage of capitalism development,It has evolved from a subtle "hybrid war" to direct war represented by the Afghan war from the subtle "hybrid war"。The overall rise of emerging countries marks deep changes in the international system,But it does not mean that unilateralism and imperialist tendencies have completely ended。

 Improve the global governance party as the right way

Although facing heavy barriers,People must admit that globalization is the general trend。In the global system that is highly blended and connected,No country or region can be alone。

"In the current human beings face an increase in epidemic disease、Disasters such as frequent challenges and other challenges,If there is no in -depth cooperation between countries and commitment to globalization,Many issues shared by humans cannot be solved。Although there are many regions in the world that emphasize local autonomy、The right to go globalized institutions and organizations for autonomous expression,I think the global trend is for most people,Is it impossible or not to escape。Britain after leaving the European Union is an example,Now it still depends on allies and global networks as before。"Brown said。

Her and Herd said,Reinstalling global governance is important,will be a challenge for several years。The spread of global governance falling into the ride and the spread of globalization,We cannot understand this trend in isolation from a single country。In an interdependent world,To truly "strengthen the national sovereignty of one country",You need to better manage globalization at the international level。The joyful thing is,We have seen the path of change -whether it is bet365 Play online games a large city that holds multinational activities to cope with climate change,Still welcome immigrants and refugees' local communities,Different actors are designing a new method for solving global challenges,and political declarations such as the Paris Agreement and the UN sustainable development goals make humans focus on long -term projects。If you can find a more novel way on the basis of these positive trends to unite global consensus,and realize real interest sharing,The foundation against globalization will be weakened。But if this attempt failed,The vicious cycle of the rebound of "adverse globalization" will continue to rise in spiral。

As Engels said,"No huge historical disaster,Not compensated by historical progress "。Professor of Globalization and Development of Oxford University Ian Goldin summarizes,Human beings should see opportunities in the current chaos and uncertainty,and the new crown pneumonia epidemic creates a critical moment。Although the future is dark and unknown,but grab this historic moment,can reverse the trend,Rebumed the destiny of individual and collective。We need to move forward along the road to a better world。

Editor in charge: Cui Cen
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