The behavioral bet365 refer a friend code journal "Economic Behavior and Organization" published in October "Can relief measures "boost" compliance during a public health crisis?》Article,Raised academic attention to behavioral bet365 refer a friend code。In recent years,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code has not only become an important part of the bet365 refer a friend code discipline,Their research methods and results are also widely used in law and other disciplines。With the publication of some best-selling books,Ordinary people are also interested in behavioral bet365 refer a friend code。To explore the core ideas and methods of behavioral bet365 refer a friend code,Understand the current development status and future trends of behavioral bet365 refer a friend code,Our reporter interviewed relevant researchers。
Progress: Substantial progress over the past thirty years
Neoclassical bet365 refer a friend code builds its own analytical framework based on the premise of "rational man",And has long dominated bet365 refer a friend code。Until the past 30 years,More and more behavioral economists have broken this situation with a series of “irrational” behavioral research results。
As an emerging discipline,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code has been recognized by the Nobel Prize in bet365 refer a friend code many times,Its historical origins can be traced back to Adam Smith's "The Theory of Moral Sentiments" in 1759。Starting with the psychological analysis of economic behavior from George Katona in the 1950s,To Herbert Simon for his hypothesis of bounded rationality,In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Daniel Kahneman and Amose Tversky proposed prospect theory and Richard Thaler proposed The concept of “mental accounting”,Until the past 30 years, a large number of experimental studies have revealed social preferences,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code, which studies micro-level individual decision-making, has been widely used in society,Involving finance、Policy Design、Enterprise Management、Health and other fields。
Cagri Kumru, associate professor of bet365 refer a friend code at the Australian National University, said,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code is interested in deviations from the concept of typical human behavior as defined by economists。These deviations can be divided into three categories: Non-standard preferences、Non-standard beliefs and non-standard decisions。Over the past 30 years,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code has made substantial progress,Provides answers to deviations from typical human behavior,In particular, laboratory experiments and field experiments have helped people understand the strength and extent of these deviations。All economic models are fundamentally based on the decisions made by economic agents such as consumers and companies,Therefore,Understanding the economic decision-making process is critical。Theoretical and experimental research on non-standard preferences and non-standard decisions has been a hot topic for some time,It is expected to be the same in the future。
Evan Calford, senior lecturer in bet365 refer a friend code at the Australian National University, believes,There are two main research directions in behavioral bet365 refer a friend code in the academic field。The first is to try to understand people’s preferences for randomization,The second is the measurement of belief。Talking about the impact of the information age on the field,Kumuru said in the interview,In the era of big data,Rapid advances in the amount of data and the speed with which it can be collected are leading to a better understanding of human behavior。However,Many theories in behavioral bet365 refer a friend code need to be verified through laboratory experiments or field experiments。Therefore,Compared to other fields of bet365 refer a friend code such as macroeconomics and public bet365 refer a friend code,Big data plays a relatively small role in the field of behavioral bet365 refer a friend code。Kumuru thinks,The convenience brought by digital technology makes people succumb to temptation more,Consumption more,The issue of self-control has become one of the important research topics in behavioral bet365 refer a friend code。
"Nudge" is a concept advocated by Thaler in his book of the same name。Kumuru said,Nudge policy design is an amazing achievement,Mainly based on the development of the field of behavioral bet365 refer a friend code in the past few decades。“Nudge” is defined as a tool that affects human behavior without directly changing prices。A very successful application of nudge policy design is,In many countries,Home energy report and electricity bill are pushed together。Many studies show,Information boost about energy consumption can save energy,Companies also use nudges to change consumer and employer behavior。For example,Prospect theory explains the importance of choice arrangements。When only small and large cups are available,Consumers usually choose small drinks。When there is a small cup、Medium cup and large cup,They will choose medium drinks。Many fast food chains and coffee shops use this strategy,Prompting consumers to give up choosing small cups。
Methods: from laboratory experiments to field experiments
Kumuru thinks,The development of behavioral bet365 refer a friend code affects other fields of bet365 refer a friend code,such as public bet365 refer a friend code、Development bet365 refer a friend code、Health bet365 refer a friend code and Macroeconomics。Although behavioral bet365 refer a friend code essentially expands our understanding of human behavior,But due to the complexity of the theory,Insights gained in behavioral bet365 refer a friend code are difficult to use to extend the standard model。For example,Incorporating immediate tendencies into standard macroeconomic models is not a simple task,We need to further improve relevant theories。Calford said,Historically,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code has a solid theoretical foundation。Compared with behavioral bet365 refer a friend code and experimental bet365 refer a friend code,A key reason for the “replication crisis” in psychology is that psychology lacks such a theoretical foundation。
Currently,Behavioral economists mainly rely on laboratory experiments and field experiments to obtain decision-making data。1960s and 1970s,With the vigorous promotion of economists such as Kahneman and Vernon Smith,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code begins to be closely integrated with experimental bet365 refer a friend code。At the same time,Due to some limitations of laboratory experiments,Scholars also turn their attention to field experiments。
From Kumulu’s point of view,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code is the future of bet365 refer a friend code。To develop meaningful models,We need to better understand human behavior,And behavioral bet365 refer a friend code provides us with the necessary tools。No matter which branch of bet365 refer a friend code a scholar studies,There is no way to avoid the perspectives provided by behavioral bet365 refer a friend code,Therefore it is necessary to master this subject。It needs to be pointed out,Field experiments are expensive,And young scholars may not easily obtain sufficient funds。However,The research methods of behavioral bet365 refer a friend code not only include field experiments,Researchers can start with theoretical research and laboratory experiments early in their careers,Turn to field experiments later。Culford also thinks so,Field experiments are only part of the work,Much basic empirical knowledge comes from laboratory experiments,This kind of experiment is much smaller than the field experiment,Easy to do too。
The future: complementary to traditional bet365 refer a friend code
Neoclassical bet365 refer a friend code was started by the "marginal revolution" and Marshall's economic thought system in the late 19th century,Based on the assumption of rational people,The basic method is dedicated to the mathematical analysis and axiomatization of economic activities。20th century,The rapid development of neoclassical bet365 refer a friend code。Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code deviates from the rational person assumption,Having been on the margins for a long time since its birth。
However,Traditional economic theory tends to analyze problems abstractly,Limited ability to explain some real economic issues。At the same time,As more and more evidence shows that there are irrational factors in people’s behavioral decisions,For example, inconsistency in intertemporal selection、Instant tendencies、Error in probability judgment, etc.,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code is gradually receiving more attention,Attracted a large number of new generation scholars to conduct related research。
For the relationship between the two,There are two voices in academia。Some scholars believe,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code is a great challenge to neoclassical bet365 refer a friend code,Represents the future development direction,The current effort should be to refine a more general theoretical model。Quite a few scholars believe that,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code is a useful supplement to traditional bet365 refer a friend code。To this,Kumuru said in the interview,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code extends the neoclassical bet365 refer a friend code model,Provides content that other models cannot capture。Although the neoclassical model is not as rich as the research results of behavioral bet365 refer a friend code,But they are easier to handle,And can answer important questions,The two complement each other。Given that human behavior is one of the greatest mysteries we need to decipher,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code will undoubtedly be an important research field in future bet365 refer a friend code。
Carlford said,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code and neoclassical bet365 refer a friend code are complementary,instead of substitution relationship。Traditional economic models predict behavior well in a very wide range of settings,Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code can focus on areas that traditional economic theory cannot predict well。If you don’t understand the traditional economic model first,We cannot fully understand the circumstances and reasons why traditional economic theory fails。Behavioral bet365 refer a friend code can promote the development of traditional bet365 refer a friend code framework,But it should never abandon the traditional framework。