Current，Speed ​​evolution without a large change in the world's 100 years，The world enters a new turbulent change period。Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine，Global trade is impacted，Some opinions believe that "global economic integration is stopping"，It has exacerbated the head of the trend of globalization。What is the actual situation around economic globalization、What are the development prospects of economic globalization，This reporter interviewed relevant foreign scholars。Scholars think，"Super Globalization" era is over，Some media reports allow the people to produce the illusion of "de -globalization"，But the economic and trade data of various countries proves that "de -globalization" does not happen。

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Uri Dadush, a guest researcher at the Belgian Think Tank Buluzer International Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with this reporter，From the definition,，"Deepening Globalization" means that most countries are in cargo trade、Service Trade、Capital flow、Location in the aspects of personnel flow and technical transfer gradually decreases。Globalization in the past 150 has been the main theme of global economic development，Only being interrupted by the World War and Economic Depression。The world trade continued to slow after the financial crisis in 2008，The first evidence bet365 live casino games of becoming a "de -globalization" hypothesis。

Professor Peter Williamson, a professor at the University of Cambridge University, said in an interview with this reporter，Since 2008，The proportion of world cargo and service trade value accounted for GDP.。Since its peak in 2007,，Global foreign direct investment inflows fell by 48%。So，"Super Globalization" era has undoubtedly ended，But this does not mean that we are experiencing "de -globalization"。

"Although after the global financial crisis，Globalization has obviously slowed down in some ways，but there is no ‘de -globalization’ phenomenon。"Dadush said。Globalization is still continuing in most international exchange channels，Most large economies' trade accounting for GDP continues to maintain stability or rise。Although there are obvious protection examples，But the trade trade is still growing，The transaction value even exceeds before the financial crisis。In recent years，Uncertainty of trade policy leads to the global barriers to service trade are still high，But it is not higher than before。Under the promotion of technological progress，Continue to grow service trade，At the same time, the technical flow speed is also faster than before the financial crisis。Although the "de -globalization" phenomenon appears in international capital flow，But this is the global financial crisis，Not protectionism。

Analysis of Dadush，1985-2008 Global experience globalization of super fast development，The increase in trade volume of the world's goods and service is advancing at a rate of 6%per year。This is due to the two epoch -making development: Bet365 lotto review First, the sharp decrease in trade costs，Second, an introverted economy that accounts for about 40%of the world's population enters the world market。Where，The decline in trade cost benefits from technology progress，Use a container in a large scale、Information and communication technology progress, etc.。On the other hand，Slowing globalization can be attributed to multiple factors，Including trade costs slowly at a slow down rate at the lower limit，For example，International phone costs drop to zero、Many tariffs have also dropped to zero.，There are some structural changes，For example, the increase in service trade proportion increases, etc.。

　Return to normal and "slow globalization" era

Daddus thinks，Several performances of the current slowdown of global trade can fully illustrate that the saying "de -globalization" is exaggerated。First，1985-2008 This stage is often compared with 1870-1914。The trade growth rate of 1985-2008 was almost 2 times of 1870-1914，In 2000, trade accounted for the world's GDP.。At this stage, trade has slowed significantly to a certain extent.，It is the result of optimizing development under the new conditions。

Second，Slowing trade is not a global phenomenon。In most countries that are not seriously dependent on oil exports，After the global financial crisis，Trade accounting for GDP ratio is actually rising。

Third，Global value chain still shows strong toughness under the impact of a variety of factors。Data released by the US Department of Commerce on February 7，The total trade trade between the United States and China in 2022 increased to US $ 690.6 billion，Bet365 lotto review Creating a new record。

Williamson thinks，For the current world products、The changes in the flow of funds and personnel，We can call it "slow globalization"，instead of "de -globalization"。Part of the global supply chain may be possible，But "de -globalization" on all activities on the chain is almost impossible，Because the various elements on the chain are spontaneous in the market，Dress the whole body。At the same time，Localized production does not significantly improve the elasticity of the supply chain，will reduce the elasticity of the industrial chain，Production "return" is also unlikely to occur on a large scale。

Professor at the Department of Economics, Datmouth College, USA、Douglas Irwin Researcher Douglas Irwin recently wrote an article，Globalization is not zero sum game，The development of some countries is at the expense of the interests of other countries。To be clear is，The development of developing countries in the past few decades has not at the cost of harming the interests of developed economies。In the past few decades，That is the era we said，In fact, I have witnessed the huge progress of the global economy。In the past 40 years，World Poverty significantly reduced，This huge progress does not endanger rich countries in North America and Western Europe。

　　Correctly understand globalization

Dadush said，The simplest understanding of globalization is to use goods、Service、Production Factors、Capital、Opportunities for the labor and technology market to develop the economy。Differences of products and production factors of various countries，reflected bet365 Play online games in the price of goods，Different commodity prices have triggered goods、The flow of service and production factors。Globalization is the flow of this flow。

Daddus thinks，The academic debate interpreting globalization as arbitrage is not sufficient。Globalization is a spontaneous phenomenon，It is the result of economic rational choices for consumers and enterprises to make economic rational choices。Unless all arbitrage has been completed，or to some extent hindered，Otherwise, globalization will continue。Globalization that lasts decades is only in the economic structure、The evolution of technical and policies generates a new price gap，It is possible to occur when there is a chance of arbitrage。Considering that the power that affects globalization may evolve，and the complexity of their interaction，Globalization cannot keep moving steadily，For details,，We can't expect that trade will increase at the speed of twice the GDP as before the global financial crisis。

Globalization does not go back on a large scale due to the increase in the obstacles of commodity trade。Dadush discovered，World cargo trade has slowed significantly，But still keeps basically synchronized with the World GDP growth。The popularity of the Internet makes the cross -border flow of technology more free and fast，and the capital flow is not affected by it。Since the global financial crisis，Capital flow fell，This mainly reflects the vulnerability of macro financial。The "de -globalization" of capital flow is a problem with special attention in developing countries，Bet365 lotto review Because these countries and regions are places that need capital investment most，and the return after risk adjustment may also be the highest。

Daddus thinks，In terms of cargo trade，The biggest challenge is to ensure that you do not go back，This highlights the necessity of the Effective dispute resolution mechanism in the WTO。The main regional agreement reached recently shows，People understand the necessity of further trade liberalization，And the momentum of trade reform is far from exhaustive。

So far，Protectiveism has not defeated the powerful technology and market forces that promote globalization。Protectionism is not the main reason for the slowdown in trade since the financial crisis，Cargo trade is still relatively free。Dadush said，The main thing that hinders international capital flow is not protectionism，but the weakness of the macroeconomic and system。

Of course，We can't blindly optimistic。Daddus thinks，Nationalism and the situation of geopolitical tensions in recent years，It is likely to lead to the general retribution of open trade and foreign investment，Technical transfer will face greater obstacles。in the 20th century，Globalization has been due to two world wars and economic depression and Cold War，Long -term interrupt state。Although globalization is ultimately recovered，The process is even faster than before，But the economic loss caused by trade interruptions has never been restored。

Williamson said，For most data、Information and knowledge flow，Globalization will continue。But for sensitive bet365 Play online games technologies such as semiconductors，Geographic politics will hinder the flow of these technologies，Form the trend of "de -globalization"。