Since the new crown epidemic，The asset -side impact caused by the downside and the performance of the stock market in the real estate market，Repair and adjust the balance sheet of various departments of China's real economy，To a certain extent, the total demand is expanded，Drag the economic recovery process。From this，It has triggered a heated discussion on whether China has occurred in the decline in balance sheets。There are even views on the current China and Japan in the 1990s.，It is believed that China may repeat the mistakes of "Japanese -style balance sheet decline"，Falling in a long -term stagnation situation。

The decline of the balance sheet is the economic recession caused by Japanese scholar Gu Chaoming in the 1990s when studying Japanese asset bubbles。Although academic perspective，This concept is not very rigorous，But there are three features very obvious，That is asset shrinkage、Debt contraction and economic recession。where，The balance sheet is the most critical conduction channel，The debt shrinkage formed by the maximum profit to liabilities (or cost) is the most important mechanism for the debt shrinkage。

Given that there is no real contraction in the asset liabilities of various departments in China (that is, negative debt growth)，Add asset shrinkage is still within the normal range, the economic maintenance is resilient, and the recovery growth is achieved，We think，There is no balance sheet in China。

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First，From the perspective of assets，Asset price declines are still within normal range。

In the process of economic recovery after the epidemic，my country's asset prices show a downward trend，But the overall decline is limited。From the perspective of house prices，The sales price of 70 large and medium -sized cities in 70 large and medium -sized cities entered the negative growth range from the second quarter of 2022，The cumulative decrease in the end of 2023 was 8.3%。where，The first -tier cities are relatively stable，Second and third -tier cities declined a lot，Cumulative declines 6.6%and 10.8%, respectively。From the perspective of changes in the stock price，From 2022 to the present，The Shanghai Composite Index fell from more than 3600 points，once below 2700 points，Now I have returned to above 2900 points。Overall，my country's asset price decline is still normal，Far from the point where asset prices plummeted or collapsed。

Comparison of comparison，Japan is much more serious。Since the 1990s，Japan's excessive tightening currency and real estate policy leads to the rupture of the asset bubble，Stocks bet365 Play online games and real estate markets have entered a significant adjustment stage。From the perspective of the stock market，Nikkei 225 Index was close to 39,000 points in early 1990，In 1992, it has fallen to 14,000 points.，Cumulative decrease of 63.0%，Subsequently fell below 8000 points in April 2003，Creating a new low in history。The total market value of listed companies in Japan was US $ 4.3 trillion in 1989，shrinking to $ 2.9 trillion in 1990，decreased by 31.3%year -on -year。From the perspective of the real estate market，Tokyo Housing Price Index from a high point at 248.3 at the end of 1990，Falling 24.7%，2003 or even fell to less than 100 points，Wandering around at 100 o'clock since then。Japanese land prices have continued to decline since 1991，Until the first recovery of positive growth in 2006，1991-2005 The average land price decreased by 49.8%。

Next，From the perspective of the debt,，The debt of each department is growing，Fore far to the degree of contraction。

One of the important features of the decline of the balance sheet，It is the private sector from the pursuit of profit maximum to the minimum liability，This triggers debt contraction。After the Japanese bubble economy was crushed in 1990，The asset -liability statement of the private sector severely shrinks: first, the debt expansion speed slows sharply，In 1998, debt continued to shrink (negative growth)，time is 15 years，It did not turn to positive growth until 2013。Looking at it specifically，The growth rate of debt in the Japanese residential department fell from 10.5%in 1990 to 1.2%in 1997。1998-2022，The debt of the residential department has always been in a negative growth range，The annual average debt growth rate is -1.35%。The growth rate of the debt of the Japanese corporate sector declined from 11.3%in 1990 to zero growth in 1997;，It continued until 2013 to be positive; during this period, it was only a positive value in 2005 and 2008，The average debt growth rate of 1998-2022 was -2.6%。

The strong contrast to it is，The expansion of the debt expansion of Chinese residents and enterprise departments, although a large slowdown，But there is no debt contraction (negative growth)。As of the end of 2023，The debt of our residential departments and enterprise departments increased by 6.9%and 9.1%year -on -year，Although only half of the average growth rate in the past 20 years，But the distance is still far away。Specifically，The growth of debt in the residential department has declined.，Some sub -items (such as housing loans) have also experienced negative growth in individual quarters，But thanks to the rapid growth of personal business loans，The overall level of the residential debt has been in a state of expansion，There is no negative growth。Since the 2015 Central Economic Bet365 app download Work Conference proposed "deleveraging"，The expansion of debt expansion of corporate departments decreases sharply，From 20.1%in the first quarter of 2016 to 6.3%in the fourth quarter of 2018，Subsequently rose slightly to about 10%，But there is no real debt contraction。From the perspective of debt structure，The debt of the corporate department in China (including local financing platforms) debt accounts for about 70 %，instead of only about 30 % of the debt of state -owned enterprise。Although the risk of recession at non -state -owned enterprise balance sheets is greater，But in view of the stabilizer of state -owned enterprises in the economic downturn，Especially the financing platform company benefits from the hidden guarantee of the local government and the support of the central government's "True Gold and Silver"，No absolute contraction of stock debts in the corporate department。This is also essentially different from Japan。other，The expansion of government departments is relatively obvious，Since the first quarter of 2020，The average growth rate of the debt of government departments reached 16.1%，Almost two times the debt growth rate of private sector，Effectively alleviated the risk of recession of the balance sheet faced by the private sector。

Last，From the perspective of economic growth，The economy maintains strong toughness and achieves recoverable growth。

The decline of the balance sheet does not just refer to the contraction of the balance sheet itself，More importantly，This contraction may lead to economic recession。For example，Affected by the decline of the balance sheet，Japan has fallen into a 30 -year economic stagnation。Since 1990，With the rupture of the asset bubble, the asset liability statement declines，Japan's economic growth has long been maintained at about 1%for a long time，This has led to the decline in Japan year by year in Japan，from the peak value of 17.9%in 1994 to 3.5%in 2023。

Comparison of comparison，my country's economic growth is significantly faster than the main developed economies in the world，It provides important support for the global economic recovery。2023，my country's GDP exceeds 126 trillion yuan，increased by 5.2%year -on -year，The growth rate accelerates 2.2 percentage points compared to 2022，Back to the good trend further consolidation。China's contribution rate to global economic growth for many years has exceeded 30%，is the biggest engine of global economic growth。

Analysis of the above indicates，shrinks with assets、The main characteristics of debt contraction and economic recession are the main characteristics of the so -called balance sheet decline in China.。The decline in asset prices causes the asset to shrink.，But the most important mechanism of which is the debt shrinkage caused by economic recession，There is no at all -in Bet365 app download fact，The debt of various departments in China is still expanding，The economy remains rapidly。

　　Three major door asset -liability tables are initial vitality

Further speaking，my country's three major asset liabilities not only have no decline，It also presents new vitality。Developed consumption、residents supported by private investment and local governments、The asset -liability table of the enterprise and the government department is expanded at the beginning of expansion。

First, the accumulation of resident deposits is reduced，Developed consumption heating。my country's residents' balance sheet begins to repair，The main manifestation is the decrease in deposit accumulation，Savings gradually transform to consumption。The fourth quarter of 2023，Cumulative deposits of Chinese residents increased by 2.4 trillion yuan year -on -year，Preventive savings demand begins to weaken。The promotion of consumer policy is effective、Per capita disposable income increases smoothly and the "double festival" holiday cultural tourism demand is booming，Preventive savings supported by residents' early accumulation support consumption recovery，In 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods in my country exceeded 47 trillion yuan，increased by 7.2%year -on -year。Development consumption recovery has become a highlight of consumption recovery。In recent years，The growth rate of survival consumption of clothing, food, and residential behavior shows a stable and slowing trend，Consumption growth is more healthcare、Education, culture and entertainment services and other development consumer pull。The scar effect brought by the three -year epidemic caused the development of development consumption obviously，But the recovery growth has been achieved since 2023。The fourth quarter of 2023，The per capita development consumption expenditure of urban residents increased by 16.4%year -on -year，The growth rate is almost 10 percentage points in survival consumption。

Second, the vitality of private investment has increased。A big highlight of the restoration of the asset liabilities of our country，The vitality of private investment has increased。2023，my country's folk fixed asset investment decreased by 0.4%year -on -year，After deducting real estate development investment, a year -on -year increase of 9.2%，The growth of private investment remain tough。Branch industry to see，Maintenance of private investment in the manufacturing industry，2023 increased by 9.4%year -on -year，higher than the overall investment of the manufacturing industry 2.9 percentage points，The growth rate has risen for 6 consecutive months。Electric machinery and equipment manufacturing，Auto manufacturing，Electricity、Heat、Gas and water production Bet365 lotto review and supply industries are more active，The year -on -year growth rate was 30.1%、18.0%and 19.6%，It mainly benefits from lithium battery manufacturing、New Energy Vehicle、The rapid development of solar power generation。The enhancement of private investment vitality is reflected in the improvement of the private economic prosperity。Compared with the official procurement manager index (PMI) published by the National Bureau，Caixin Manufacturing PMI statistical sample is mainly for small and medium -sized private enterprises export -oriented in the coastal area，Can better reflect the level of private economic prosperity。2023，Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to an expansion range of more than 50%，and higher than the official manufacturing PMI most months，Show private manufacturing production and operation recovery is relatively fast。

Third, the central government strongly supports debt，Local economic vitality has increased。Considering that local governments are generally trapped in debt，tired of dealing with debt repayment pressure and no time to develop the economy，The central government takes out "True Gold and Silver" to support the local government to repair the balance sheet，"loosen" to the local area，greatly inspired the enthusiasm of the local government to develop the economy。On the one hand，Restart the issuance of special recycling bonds，Relieve short -term debt repayment pressure。The fourth quarter of 2023，Local governments issued a total of 1.4 trillion yuan of special recycling bonds，It is used to replace the hidden debt of the stock and repay the government's arrears of corporate accounts。On the other hand，New special government bonds at the end of 2023 and adjusting the budget deficit are important。Special government bonds have a flexible issuance mechanism、Effective approval process、Dedicated funds and other advantages，Generally not included in the fiscal deficit。This special national debt is fully included in the central fiscal deficit，Release a more positive fiscal policy signal，It is conducive to the economy to accelerate recovery。And，This additional issuance of special government bonds repay the principal and interest payment will be borne by the central government，No local debt repayment pressure。Local governments have obtained funds for post -disaster recovery and rebuilding and increasing infrastructure investment，helps to alleviate local hidden debt risks。strongly supports debt in the central government、Optimize the role of the debt structure of the central and local governments，Local governments can "loosen"，The enthusiasm and vitality of the development of the local economy have increased。

　Policy collaboration to ensure that the economy is steadily moving forward

To consolidate and enhance my country's economic bet365 live casino games recovery to a good situation，Macro policy should continue the expansion tone，Strengthen the coordination of fiscal and financial policies。On the one hand，Expansion of the central government's balance sheet，Especially to increase debt issuance; on the other hand，Maintain a large rate of interest rate cuts，Reduction of interest payment of stock debt，Support for asset prices。At the same time，Formulate and introduce more conducive to stable expectations、Policy of strong confidence，Help the micro -subject strong asset -liability form，Ensure that the economy is steadily moving forward。

First，Active fiscal policy moderate forces，Take into account stable growth and risk prevention。First, maintain the necessary financial deficit rate level，Mainly increase leverage by the central government，Arrange it to place to use it by transfer payment method，Reduce local debt repayment pressure。Second, fiscal should be strongly supporting affordable housing construction、"Pingshu and Two -purpose" public infrastructure construction、Three major projects of the reconstruction of Chengzhong Village，Make up for real estate investment gaps and increase infrastructure investment，helps coordinate the risk of resolving real estate and local debt。Third, government investment can not "see things and don't see people"，Pay more attention to human capital investment，Expand high -quality education、Supply of Medical Resources Services，Accelerate the cultivation and development of development -oriented consumption。

Second，Stable monetary policy is precise and effective，Use enough to reduce interest rate reduction space。First, the total currency has maintained a reasonable growth，Timely reduction in time to supplement the bank system for medium -term liquidity，Relieve the narrowing pressure of the net interest margin of the bank。Second, maintain a large rate of interest rate cuts，It is important for the strong asset liability sheet。interest rate cuts help reduce interest expenditure and debt burden，Cooperate with positive fiscal policies for further effort。Estimated Digital，A reduction of interest burdens reduced by 1 percentage point，The scale of debt expansion formed by the fiscal deficit rate increases 3 percentage points。other，Rest reduction will also support asset prices，Avoid the loss of the balance sheet into recession。

third，Relying on reform and opening up to enhance the development of the internal vitality，Stir and enhance social vitality。First, we will take the acceleration of the national unified market construction as the starting point，Unblocked Domestic Cycle。Improve the market -oriented configuration system and mechanism，Promoting the unified market system、Bet365 app download Facilities Unicom、Consistent supervision，Break local protection and market division。The second is to expand the high level of opening to the public，Improve international circulation quality and level。Steady expansion of rules、Regulations、Management、Standard and other institutions open，Give full play to my country's industrial supporting capabilities、The international leading advantage of some industries，Actively participate in the optimization layout of the global industrial chain supply chain。Three is to continuously improve the "two unshakable" institutional mechanisms，Enhance the transparency of macro policies、Stability and predictability，Fully stimulates the endogenous dynamic and innovative vitality of various business entities。Fourth is to actively and steadily plan to promote the reform of a new round of fiscal and taxation system，Implement the reform of the financial system。Stimulate the financial relations of the central land，Reduce the government's intervention of financial resources allocation and risk pricing，Establish a long -term mechanism for preventing and resolving local debt risks。

　(The author is the director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Director of the National Financial and Development Lab、Researcher)