March 2018，The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced that it is intended to impose tariffs on China export goods，officially provoked Sino -US trade friction，It has been a year and a half now。During this period，Sino -US economic and trade negotiation process is three folds，The amount of tariffs on Chinese goods increased on Chinese goods gradually expanded，and try to use a variety of means to "pressure on the limit" of China; when China ’s understanding of the United States is increasingly clearer，I took some powerful countermeasures，Showing firm determination to safeguard its rights and interests。The twists and turns of Sino -US trade friction convey some important information，helps us to better understand the future development of Sino -US trade friction and the trend of Sino -US relations。

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The United States has continuously issued a threat to China's export of tariffs on American goods，But the implementation process of improving tariffs on special large export products is often not as decisive as it is proclaimed。

The more typical is，On September 18, 2018, the US government announced that it will start from September 24，A 10%import tariffs are levied to US $ 200 billion in goods native to China，and will increase the tariff rate to 25% on January 1, 2019。but December 14, 2018，The Office of the US Trade Representative announced that it will postpone the time to increase the tariff rate until March 2, 2019。March 5, 2019，The Office of the US Trade Representative announced again to postpone this implementation period。Last，The implementation date of this policy is May 10, 2019，It is implemented in the case of severe frustration in the eleventh round of economic and trade consultations in China bet365 best casino games and the United States，and delayed about 5 months from the original date。Date delay process display，The United States has always used the raising of US $ 200 billion in commodity tariff rates as a bargaining chip for trade negotiations，and its method is relatively simple and rude，There is greater randomness。

bet365 best casino games In order to put pressure on the subsequent Sino -US economic and trade consultation，Trump issued Twitter on August 1 this year that it is intended to impose 10%tariffs on the US $ 300 billion in China to enter the United States from September 1。No important incidents occur in Sino -US relations、Sino -US economic and trade consultation is in the empty window period，The Office of the US Trade Representative issued a statement on August 13，Decision to postpone a 10%tariff on some categories of Chinese goods，postponed its time to December 15。other，Based on health、Security、Considering the national security and other factors，Some Chinese products will be removed from the tariff list。This policy change in the United States obviously does not come from China's pressure，It is not due to new progress in the Sino -US economic and trade negotiations。It is mainly due to economic pressure within the United States，and the impact of the impact of tariffs on the US election。

Several changes to the implementation date of the trade threat，For the United States，Tariffs imposing tariffs on the threatened goods are not their policy goals，Its goal is to promote the results that favors it in trade negotiations through threats。But the United States uses the same routine repeatedly，Its effect will gradually decrease，Because China will gradually form a expectation for such behavior，and generate certain adaptability。

　The US expects to gradually adjust

A basic strategy of the United States in the Sino -US trade relations is: first improving tariffs on Chinese goods to form pressure on Chinese，Then obtain the concession of the Chinese side at the condition that delay or cancel tariffs on additional tariffs。This，The United States can not suffer without suffering how much loss，Obtain results that are beneficial to it。Comparison of comparison，If China -US economic and trade negotiations are broken，The two countries really played a long and large -scale trade war，It does not conform to the interests of the United States，It is not the result that the United States wants。Because if this is the purpose of the United States，The United States can directly enter this state through large -scale improving tariffs to entered this state quickly，instead of expanding bet365 Play online games the scope and level of tax increases level，and delay the implementation time。

August 23, 2019，China announced that about $ 75 billion of goods native to the United States，Add 5%-10%tariffs，and implement them on September 1st and December 15th。This obviously surprised the United States，The Trump administration quickly decided to increase the tariff rate of Chinese products exported to China。This counter -behavior adopted by China，Its significance is obviously not only a limited tariff on the limited extension of 75 billion US dollars，For the economic volume of China bet365 best casino games and the United States,，The economics of this behavior is very limited。From the United States,，It is more important to reflect China's change in the mentality of China -US economic and trade negotiations，Especially China is trying to turn passiveness in the process of economic and trade negotiations.，and take a certain amount of、A limited reverse pressure，The psychological expectation of some people think that "China is unlicensed", "China will not counterattack", "China can only wait for the United States"。

In May 2019, the Sino -US economic and trade consultation suffered serious frustration itself also affected the expectations of the United States。Because the United States gave high expectations for negotiations at the time，Theoretically，The United States will be very disappointed with frustration of negotiations，It will even make Trump angry，Therefore, it may cause serious consequences in Sino -US economic and trade relations。But the fact is，Although in this case，The United States has increased the tariff rate of US $ 200 billion in China from 10%to 25%(this is the policy that the United States announced a few months ago)，But there was no new important tariff measures at that time。From May to July, China bet365 best casino games and the United States' economic and trade negotiations are still in a relatively stable state。

So，Sino -US economic and trade negotiations are full of drums and rapid advancement，It may make some American people have a wrong understanding that China is anxious to concession，The frustration of China -US negotiations before helping the United States recognize China's patience and persistence，To a certain extent, it plays the role of US expectations，The gap between China bet365 best casino games and the United States in terms of trade negotiations can be reduced，Therefore, there is another positive significance。

The United States seeks China concession instead of keeping high tariffs

Only as far as the Sino -US trade field is concerned，For China，The worst result is that the United States exports the US -exported commodities high (such as 25%or 30%) tariffs。From a rational perspective，China should not make a biggest concession than this result in trade negotiations。That is to say，China's overall concession should not be greater than more than 500 billion US dollars of goods.。This is like we should not pay twice the price to eliminate a threat to double the damage。Considering that American consumers need to bear some burdens that increase tariffs，and some trade transfer effects caused by tariffs，The marginal impact on the new round of threats in the United States should not have an estimate of too high。

Due to many intermediate products produced in China, it is difficult to find effective alternatives in a certain period of time，Tariffs imposed on China in the United States，and Japan、In the case where Europe does not take the same practice，The US policy means that American companies need to purchase parts from China at a relatively high price，And their European -Japanese peers can buy parts from China at a lower price。This will adversely affect the competitiveness of some American companies，In particular, it will affect those profit margins that are not high、Enterprises with little advantage。

If the United States really implements a policy of imposing tariffs on all Chinese export goods，It will promote China to work hard to find other alternative markets and solutions。When all the goods exported to the United States have been imposed on tariffs，China's urgency will disappear in a short period of time.。Because the tariff itself is not a US policy goal，To obtain long -term value on the negotiating table is the purpose of the United States，So，Targets exporting to China to export American products are not in line with US policy needs。In this case，A firm background that China will inevitably make will also give the United States a lot of price。

Since the Sino -US trade friction entered a high -intensity state in March 2018，The development process bet365 Play online games of about one and a half years，It also changed Europe to a certain extent、Japan and other international behaviors such as the long -term trend of Sino -US trade friction。At the beginning of the start of high -intensity trade friction，Many people internationally believe that the result of the "trade war" has no suspense，If the United States is determined，You can get speed wins，And the attitude of the third party has not affects the results。For more than a year，China shows the determination and ability that many people will bear the pressure of the United States to be applied by many people，And China's countermeasures have always been rational and festivals。Facing the unreasonable pressure in the United States，China is trying to counterattack within the scope of maintaining existing international economic order and compliance with the existing international economic rules，Show strong strategic fixed force and strategic patience。These all affect the cognition of other countries for China。

　China stands on the pressure of most national interests

In such a competition，If the United States gets a decisive victory，This will promote Trump’s adventure，Significant increasing uncertainty of international economic order，Also made Europe、Japan、India becomes more vulnerable in the face of Trump's trade threat，Make it in a more unfavorable position in the future economic order。From this angle，Europe、Japan、India does not want to see that China has a large frustration in China bet365 best casino games and the United States in the Sino -US trade friction。Although the United States has certain advantages，But China and the United States form a more stable stalemate situation，More in line with its interests。

From an international perspective，China's stress on the United States，China bet365 best casino games and the United States have reached a trade agreement that looks basic and reasonable from the perspective of a third party，Insurance to the interests of most countries outside the United States。After a period of time, the Sino -US game，Many important international behaviors have basically formed a clearer judgment。So we can see，Since 2019，When the Sino -US trade friction is in a fierce state，Europe、Japan basically does not adopt the practice bet365 Play online games of falling down in China。If they do this，Obviously it can have a more important impact on this process。

Because it occurs in the background of the power transfer of the international system，The process and trend of Sino -US trade friction will directly affect the direction of the future international order and the position of China in it，It will also affect the way the United States deal with the United States and China in the next 5-10 years or even longer，Its indirect effect cannot be underestimated。If China can indeed adopt reasonable countermeasures against the United States，Effectively practicing and interpreting the general understanding of the economics of "no winner" in the trade war，It is also an important contribution made by China to the international economic order。

Multiple threats issued by the United States in trade friction，The United States is trying to take some extreme practices that the United States is trying to decide in the field of technology，It is both a means to pressure China，It is also the United States' strategic ability to China、A strategic test of the ability to deal with。The effect obtained by the last round of tentative will affect the next action in the United States，This is a process of dynamic evolution of policy。In this process，The firmness of China's performance，and this kind of stability in a long period of time，With important signal value。The goal of the United States in trade friction is not only to reduce the deficit，I also hope that by pressure to China，Promoting major changes in China's economic structure: allowing China to pay the price and fundamentally benefit the United States，Of course, this is the unacceptable of China。

China must not only consider the current difficulties and costs，And more from how to make your own rise stand the angle of different international impact，Opportunities from how to use Sino -US trade friction to better shape the international community's knowledge and expectations of China，Come and think about the response to Sino -US trade friction。During the trade friction process，China should better show the determination and patience，After the economy with the United States、A certain degree of game in the trade field，Promoting Sino -US economic and bet365 Play online games trade relations to form a certain stable situation，further shaping the toughness of China's domestic economy and society in this process，Strengthen the willingness of other countries to cooperate with China，Make up for the shortcomings of strength、The angle of showing strategic ability and promotion of strategic reputation，The adverse factors of trade frictions are converted into as many factors that are beneficial to China。

(The author is the dean of the School of International Relations of Guangdong University of Foreign Trade、Professor)