September 14, 2018，Two oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, Saudi Arabia were violently attacked，The situation in the bet365 bonus bets region becomes tense again。The "anti-Iran group" led by the United States and Saudi Arabia after the attack broke out，Point the finger behind the scenes to Iran。To this，Iran says this is a habitual “slander policy” of the United States。In fact，This attack can be seen as the result of the historical logical evolution of the geopolitical game between foreign powers and regional countries around the bet365 bonus bets over the years。

　　bet365 bonus bets international relations under the leadership of “security dilemma”

The bet365 bonus bets region has always been regarded as the area with the most prominent security dilemma，The formation of the regional security system began in 1971，British forces withdrew from the area at that time，Bahrain、Qatar、Oman and the United Arab Emirates became independent one after another，Kuwait had become independent 10 years ago，This has greatly shaped the geopolitical landscape of the bet365 bonus bets region。This "security" is epitomized by the bet365 bonus bets monarchies' concerns about domestic threats。

　1971，The United States replaced the United Kingdom as the leading external power in the region。At this time, both Iran and Saudi Arabia are allies of the United States in the region，The bet365 bonus bets region maintains a rare state of "peace"。1979 was an important turning point in the history of the development of bet365 bonus bets international relations，Five major historical events have shaped the pattern of international relations in the region: First, the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran；Second, Saddam came to power；The third is the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan；Fourth, Islamic fundamentalists opposed to the Saudi Arabian regime attacked and occupied the Grand Mosque in Mecca；Fifth, Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty。Without a doubt，On the one hand, these events challenge the strategic interests of the United States in the region，On the other hand, it threatens the political security of the bet365 bonus bets countries。

After the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran，Broken relations between the United States and Iran，The end of the war in Afghanistan has not brought peace to the region，On the contrary, Islamic extremism that grew during the war quickly spread to the bet365 bonus bets and even the entire West Asia and North Africa region。In the Iran-Iraq War，On the one hand, the bet365 bonus bets monarchies must guard against the infiltration of radical ideas，On the other hand, they are unwilling to directly confront Iran，Choose to support Saddam’s Iraq。1981，bet365 bonus bets monarchies establish bet365 bonus bets Cooperation Council (GCC) to counter Iranian threat。But，1990，Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait changed the pattern of the bet365 bonus bets region。At this time, the bet365 bonus bets monarchies and the United States simultaneously pointed their fingers at Iran's Islamic revolutionary regime and Saddam Hussein's regional expansionism。

The outbreak of the "9·11" incident continues to shape the pattern of the bet365 bonus bets region。As the George W. Bush administration launches the “Global War on Terrorism” and the “Greater Middle East Democracy Plan”，The United States began to seek to overthrow Saddam’s regime。The excessive involvement of the United States and the weak economic development of the bet365 bonus bets countries，A large-scale anti-American trend has emerged within the bet365 bonus bets monarchies，Especially the emergence of Islamic extremism。

From a historical perspective，The bet365 bonus bets region is an area extremely prone to conflict。Since 1980，Three large-scale international wars have broken out in the region，The Iran-Iraq War、bet365 bonus bets War and Iraq War。In fact，In order to prevent the outbreak of war and respond to various domestic and foreign threats，bet365 bonus bets countries increase military investment，But instead of strengthening their respective security，On the contrary, it has caused a situation of distrust between countries。

　After 2003，The “security dilemma” of bet365 bonus bets countries becomes increasingly apparent。Main performance: first，Whether to vigorously increase the country’s defense capabilities，Because this move may cause other countries to take the same move，Ultimately causing a large-scale arms race in the region；Second，The dilemma between developing one’s own armed forces and “subcontracting” to major powers；Third，The contradiction between maintaining the region’s destiny of being independent of major powers and attracting external forces to intervene to provide security。In essence，These three sets of "security dilemmas" all stem from the concerns of bet365 bonus bets country leaders about the vulnerability of the regime。Therefore，In formulating foreign policy，Their primary political consideration is to predict whether the implementation of this policy will endanger their own regime security，Policies formulated based on this logic are often contrary to national interests。

　　The deepening of differences within the bet365 bonus bets

　The “Arab Spring” that broke out in 2011 was a battle between secular forces and Islamist forces，The latter is also one of the important influences shaping the pattern of the bet365 bonus bets region in recent years。Transnational Islamist thought has always been regarded as one of the important threats by the bet365 bonus bets monarchies。The Islamist trend since 2011 has divided the Middle East into an anti-transnational ideological camp dominated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and a pro-transnational ideological camp dominated by Turkey and Qatar。

This structural contradiction has had a profound impact on the internal relations of the GCC。As in the first Qatar crisis that broke out in 2014，Saudi Arabia、The UAE and Bahrain accuse Qatar of interfering in other countries’ internal affairs by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood，Recalled the Ambassador to Qatar。The Reaching of the Iran Nuclear Agreement in 2015、The outbreak of the conflict in Yemen has further deepened the differences within the GCC。2017，Trump’s first visit to the bet365 bonus bets Area，His clear stance against Iran and support for Saudi Arabia，Causing criticism from some people within the GCC，Triggered an unprecedented diplomatic crisis within the alliance。The outbreak of a series of events finally promoted the outbreak of the second Qatar crisis in 2017，It also marks the first time that internal differences within the GCC have been made public。

Due to the bet365 bonus bets countries’ concerns about their respective security interests，The bet365 bonus bets security system is no longer a whole，And there is great vulnerability，Any regional incident will have a devastating impact on the entire situation。May 8, 2018，Trump announced his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement，Subsequent implementation of sanctions against Iran，Not only pushes US-Iran relations to the commanding heights of conflict，And it also makes the GCC face the dilemma of its policy towards Iran。October of the same year，The Khashoggi incident broke out，The national image of Saudi Arabia has been greatly damaged，Some of Saudi Arabia’s allies，For example, the United Arab Emirates has even begun to consider keeping a certain distance from it。

The deepening of differences within the GCC，In fact, it provides opportunities for Iran to pursue strategic interests in the region。Long time，Successive leaders of Iran have positioned the country as a regional power，The various local armed organizations it has established in the Middle East form a "strategic depth"，Formed a strict behind-the-scenes support strategy。Even after years of US sanctions，Iran has also developed strong self-defense capabilities，And form a de facto alliance with Türkiye and Russia。In comparison，Saudi Arabia’s self-defense capability is extremely fragile—it is extremely dependent on the protection of the United States，The regional network it established is also in danger of collapse，The UAE’s withdrawal of troops and support for the southern separatist groups in Yemen is an example。It is in this case，Iran has increased its squeeze on Saudi Arabia’s strategic space，Meanwhile，This move also conflicts with the interests of the United States，This has led to continued tension in the bet365 bonus bets region。

　　Competition and confrontation will remain the main theme of the situation in the bet365 bonus bets

Judging from the future development of the situation in the bet365 bonus bets，First，The conflict between the United States and Iran will remain the core contradiction，And it is difficult to solve it in a short period of time。Since the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement，The war of words and military threats between the United States and Iran have not subsided，There is no sign of trying to resolve the conflict。As an international factor in the bet365 bonus bets security system，US-Iran relations will seriously restrict the development of the situation in a good direction。

Secondly，The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be the main conflict。As a typical representative of structural contradictions in the region，Under the constraints bet365 bonus bets existing domestic system and regional environment，Both parties will continue to cooperate in various fields，Especially the game and confrontation on the Yemen issue。

AGAIN，The internal conflicts in the GCC will be secondary conflicts。Because for the bet365 bonus bets Monarchies，The interests of establishing a "holy alliance" that can safeguard the survival of the monarchy far outweigh geopolitical interests，In fact, there have been signs of contact between Saudi Arabia and Qatar recently。

Finally，The attack on the oil plant facilities is one of the important manifestations of the damage to Saudi Arabia’s strategy in the bet365 bonus bets region。Due to double setbacks in domestic affairs and diplomacy，Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman tries to continue to find new strategic space，To reverse the unfavorable situation of Saudi Arabia’s leadership at home。Earlier，Salman says he has lost patience with Türkiye，The reason is that the way Türkiye handled the Khashoggi incident last October greatly embarrassed Saudi Arabia。September 12，Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Ibrahim Abdulaziz Al-Assaf said，Saudi Arabia supports Greek Cypriot opposition to Turkish oil and gas exploration in the Mediterranean。

In summary，The situation of bet365 bonus bets international relations constrained by the "security dilemma" has become more complicated due to the intervention of the United States on the one hand；On the other hand，bet365 bonus bets countries’ concerns about security issues，Especially sensitive to the security of the regime，Leading to continued competition and confrontation among regional powers。This not only makes the future pattern of the bet365 bonus bets more complicated，It also makes the situation in the Middle East more complicated and confusing。

　　(The author is a postdoctoral fellow at bet365 bonus bets Institute of Northwestern University；Director, Institute of Middle East Studies, Northwestern University、Professor)