September 14, 2018，Petroleum facilities, located in Saudi Arabia, Arabia, and Husius were violently attacked，The situation in the Gulf area is again nervous。The "Anti -Iranian Group" led by the United States and Saudi Arabia is after the attack broke out，Push back behind the scenes to Iran。For this，Iran said that this is the "slanderous policy" used by the United States。Dested，This attack can be regarded as the result of the historical logic evolution of the geopolitical game of the Gulf of the Gulf for many years。

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The Gulf area has always been regarded as the most prominent area of ​​security predicament，The formation of the safety system of the region began in 1971，The British forces were withdrawn from the area at that time，Barin、Qatar、Oman and the UAE have been independent one after another，and Kuwait has been independent in the previous 10 years，This greatly shaped the geopolitical pattern of the Gulf area。This "security" concentration is reflected in the concern of the Gulf monarch of the monarch of the Gulf。

1971，The United States replaces Britain to become the primary external forces in the region。At this time, Iran and Saudi Arabia are all allys in the United States in the region，The Gulf area has maintained a rare "peace" state。1979 is an important turning point in the history of the development of international relations in Gulf，Five historical events have shaped the international relations of the region: First, the Islamic Revolution broke out in Iran; the bet365 best casino games other is Saddam came to power; third, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan; the fourth was the attack and occupation of Islamic religious actors against the Saudi Arabian regime. Melizer's Mosque; Fifth, Egypt and Israel signed a Peace Treaty。No doubt，These incidents challenged the strategic interests of the United States in the region，On the other hand, it threatened the security of the regime of the Gulf countries。

After the outbreak of the Iranian Islamic Revolution，Meiyi relations rupture，The end of the Afghan war has not brought peace to the area，On the contrary, Islamic extremism, which has grown in the war, has spread rapidly to the Bay and even the entire West Asian North Africa region。In the Iraqi War，Gulf monarch country on the one hand should beware of penetration of radical thoughts，On the other hand, I don’t want to fight against Iran on the other hand，Then choose to support Saddam's Iraq。1981，The Gulf Monarch has established the Bay Cooperation Committee (GCC) to cope with Iran's threat。but，1990，Iraq's invasion of Kuwait changed the pattern of the Gulf area。At this time, the Gulf monarch and the United States also pointed their spear heads to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary regime and Saddam's regional expansionism。

The outbreak of the "9 · 11" incident continues to shape the pattern of the Gulf area。As the Bush government launched the "Global Anti -terrorism War" and "Greater Middle East Democratic Plan"，The United States began to seek overthrowing the Saddam regime。Over -intervention in the United States plus the economic development of the Gulf country is weak，Bay monarchs have a large -scale anti -American thought tide，Especially the emergence of Islamic extremism。

From a historical point of view，The Gulf area is a area where conflict Bet365 app download is easily erupted。Since 1980，Three large -scale international wars have erupted in this area，That is the Iraqi War、Gulf War and Iraq War。Dested，To prevent the outbreak of the war and respond to various domestic and foreign threats，Gulf countries increase military investment，But not only failed to strengthen their respective safety，Instead, it has caused a situation that is not trusted between the country。

After 2003，The "security dilemma" of the Gulf country becomes more and more appearing。Main manifestations: First，Whether to vigorously increase the defense ability of the country，Because this move may cause the same measures in other countries，In the end, the large -scale arms competition in the region; second，Develop the dilemma between its own armed forces and the "subcontracting" to the main powers; the third，Maintain the fate of the region from the dominance of the country and attract external forces to intervene in the conflict between providing security protection。In essence，These three groups of "security dilemma" are derived from the concerns of the gulp leaders' concerns about the fragility of power。So，When formulating a foreign policy，Their primary political considerations are to predict whether the implementation of this policy endangers its own regime security，Policies based on this logic are often contrary to national interests。

　　Different from the internal differences of the sea of ​​sea

The "Arab Spring" broke out in 2011 is a battle between secular power and Islamic forces，The latter is also one of the important influences of the bay area in recent years。The trend of transnational Islamic ideas has always been regarded by the Gulf monarch country as one of the important threats。The Islamist thought tide Bet365 app download since 2011 has divided the Middle East into the anti -transnational trendy camps dominated by Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the support of the transnational trendy camps dominated by Turkey and Qatar。

This structural contradiction has a profound impact on the internal relationship of the sea -federation。If the first Qatar crisis broke out in 2014，Saudi Arabia、The UAE and Barin accusing Qatar accusing Qatarta accusing Qatarta through supporting Mu Brothers to interfere with other domestic politics，Then call back to the Ambassador to the Card。2015 Iran nuclear agreement to reach、The outbreak of the conflict of Yemen has further deepened the differences within the sea of ​​sea。2017，Trump first visited the Gulf area，Its anti -Iranian and a distinctive position for Saudi Arabia，Criticism caused by some people inside the sea of ​​sea，It has caused an unprecedented diplomatic crisis within the league。The outbreak of a series of events finally promoted the outbreak of the Second Cartars in 2017，It also marks the first publicization of the internal differences of the sea in the sea。

Due to the concern of the Gulf countries on their respective security interests，The security system of the Bay is not a whole，There is a large vulnerability，Any regional incident will have a destructive effect on the entire situation。May 8, 2018，Trump announced his withdrawal from the Iraqi Nuclear Agreement，Follow -up sanctions on Iraqi，Not only pushing the US -II relationship to the commanding height of contradictions，and also allows the internal predicament of the Iranian policy。October of the same year，Card Schuji Incident，The image of Saudi Arabian Arabian country has been greatly damaged，Some allies in Saudi Arabia，As the UAE Bet365 app download and even start considering maintaining a certain distance with them。

3312_3324，In fact, it provides opportunities for Iran's pursuit of strategic interests in the region。For a long time，Iran's previous leaders have positioned the country as a major regional country，Various local armed organizations established in the Middle East formed a "strategic depth"，Forms a strict behind -the -scenes support strategy。Even after experiencing many years of sanctions in the United States，Iran has also developed a strong self -defense ability，and formed a factual alliance with Türkiye and Russia。Comparison of comparison，Saudi Arabia's self -defense ability is abnormally fragile -extremely depends on the protection of the United States，The regional network it established is also in danger of collapse，The UAE withdraw troops and supports the separationism organization of Yemen South is exactly a case。It is in this case，Iran has increased the squeezing of Saudi Arabia's strategic space，At the same time，This move also conflict with the interests of the United States，Then the situation in the Gulf area continues to be tense。

　　Competition and confrontation will still be the main theme of the situation of the Bay

From the perspective of the future development of the Bay situation，First，Meiyi conflict will still be the core contradiction，It is difficult to solve it in a short period of time。From the United States to withdraw from the Iraqi Nuclear Agreement，The saliva and military threats of both sides of the United States have not disappeared，No signs of trying to resolve contradictions。International factors as a Bay security system，Mei and Ai Relations will seriously restrict the development of the situation in the direction of the situation。

bet365 live casino games Next，Iran and Saudi conflict will be the main contradiction。As a typical structural contradiction representative in the region，Under the restriction of the existing domestic system and regional environment，The two parties will continue in various fields，Especially on the issue of Yemen, games and confrontation。

again，The internal conflict of the sea in the sea will be a secondary contradiction。Because for the Gulf monarch kingdom，The benefit of the "sacred alliance" that can maintain the survival of the monarchy is far greater than the geopolitical interests，In fact, in fact, Saudi Arabia recently has signs of contact with Qatar。

Last，This time the oil plant facility is attacked as one of the important performances of Saudi Arabia's strategic damage in the Gulf area。Double frustration due to internal affairs and diplomacy，Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman tried to continue to find new strategic space，to reverse the unfavorable situation of Saudi Arabia's leadership in China。Earlier，Saleman said he had lost patience with Türkiye，The reason is that the way Türkiye dealt with the Kashuji incident last October made Saudi Arabia's great embarrassment。September 12，Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Ibrahim Abdul Azizza Saf said，Saudi Arabia supports the Greek Cyprus to oppose Türkiye's oil and natural gas exploration in the Mediterranean。

To sum up，"Security Dilemma" restricted by the Gulf International Relations situation on the one hand becomes more complicated due to the United States intervention; on the other hand,，Gulf countries concerned about security issues，Especially sensitive to the security of the regime，Learn continuous competition and confrontation between regional powers。This not only makes the future bet365 live casino games bay pattern more complicated，It also makes the situation in the Middle East more confusing。

　　(The author is a doctorate in the Middle East Institute of Northwest University; Director of the Institute of Middle East Institute of Northwest University、Professor)