February 29, 2020 local time，The U.S. government officially signed a peace agreement with the Afghan Taliban (hereinafter referred to as the "Taliban") in Doha, the capital of Qatar。The United States promises to do so within 135 days after the signing bet365 horse racing odds agreement，Evacuate 5,000 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan first and close 5 military bases in Afghanistan，Finally withdrawn all NATO military forces in Afghanistan within 14 months。In return，The Taliban pledge to ban its members、Al Qaeda and other similar organizations or individuals，Using Afghanistan as a safe haven to threaten the United States and its allies。The agreement also stipulates that domestic political negotiations between all Afghan forces, including the Taliban, will begin on March 10，And before that, the Afghan government and the Taliban will each release 5,000 Taliban and 1,000 Afghan government prisoners。 The Trump administration has high hopes for a complete solution to the Afghan issue through this agreement，The White House issued a statement that day: "This is a historic opportunity to establish lasting peace in Afghanistan。”

But，The signing bet365 horse racing odds US-Taliban peace agreement failed to prevent the continued deterioration bet365 horse racing odds security situation in Afghanistan。April 27, 2020，The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan released a report，After entering March，Afghanistan’s domestic conflict intensifies，The violent activities bet365 horse racing odds Taliban and other organizations have not stopped，On the contrary, it is increasing。Observed from the dynamics of various forces in Afghanistan and other related situations in the past three months，The implementation bet365 horse racing odds agreement has encountered many severe challenges。

First，The authority bet365 horse racing odds Afghan government has been weakened，Internal divisions intensify。After the start of direct peace talks between the United States and Tajikistan，The Afghan government has long been in the awkward position of being marginalized，Even at the signing ceremony bet365 horse racing odds peace agreement, no Afghan government officials were present。The relevant contents bet365 horse racing odds agreement further damage the status bet365 horse racing odds Afghan government，Mainly manifested in: first，The United States has not promised to complete the withdrawal after the agreement is finalized，This means that the United States may withdraw all military forces at any time and "dump" various Afghan affairs to the Afghan government。Secondly，Demand to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners before internal negotiations begin，It will cause the Afghan government to lose important bargaining chips。Again，The agreement only states that the Afghan government should negotiate with the Taliban，But it is not clear what its specific role is。Last，The agreement only protects the United States and its allies from threats from armed forces such as the Taliban and Al Qaeda，But not the people of Afghanistan、Government or security forces。The above measures have caused a huge impact on the authority bet365 horse racing odds Afghan government，As a result, the implementation bet365 horse racing odds terms bet365 horse racing odds agreement regarding prisoner exchange and opening of internal negotiations has been delayed。

At the same time，The divisions within the Afghan government continue to intensify。The Afghan government formed a cabinet in 2014，Ghani, who represents the interests of southern Afghanistan, takes office as president，Abdallah, who represents northern interests, takes office as chief executive，Political structure arrangements between the two parties、Distribution of economic benefits and even foreign policy formulation and many other aspects，There are various contradictions，Leading the Afghan government into a long-term dualistic opposition，The United States has never been able to integrate it into a force。The internal conflicts in the Afghan government reached a peak due to the 2019 presidential election。Abdallah does not recognize the result announced by the Independent Electoral Commission in February 2020 that Ghani won，And held their respective presidential inauguration ceremonies at the same time as Ghani on March 9。Under pressure from the United States，The two sides reached a compromise on May 17，Remove Abdullah’s title of Chief Consul，But gives him the power to appoint half bet365 horse racing odds government cabinet，And appointed him to be responsible for negotiations with the Taliban。However, this approach still fails to fundamentally solve the problem of divisions within the Afghan government，At the same time，It may increase the differences between the two sides in their attitudes toward the Taliban，Even lead to the breakdown of subsequent negotiations。

Second，The binding force bet365 horse racing odds agreement on the Taliban remains to be tested。First，The Taliban is more determined in its goal of establishing a political power。Despite being hit hard at the beginning bet365 horse racing odds war in Afghanistan，But the Taliban was not completely eliminated，By establishing strongholds and launching guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan’s vast rural areas，Gradually evolved into the largest anti-government armed force in Afghanistan。The highest political goal of this organization has always been to overthrow the current government、Restore its rule over Afghanistan。Since 2018, the US government has taken the initiative to negotiate directly with the Taliban and the final signing bet365 horse racing odds US-Taliban peace agreement，Greatly enhances the political legitimacy and international influence bet365 horse racing odds Taliban，It further strengthened his confidence in pursuing nation-building。Therefore，Western scholars generally believe that，The Taliban regard the agreement as an "end of occupation" agreement，Instead bet365 horse racing odds peace agreement with the Afghan government。Just one week after the agreement was signed，The Taliban means，The organization will continue to carry out armed activities，Until we take power。May 20, 2020，The Taliban leader issued a statement on the organization’s official website，Reaffirmed Taliban’s demand to rule Afghanistan。Secondly，Echoing political demands，The Taliban’s violent activities against the Afghan government are also escalating。America’s National Security Council said，Since the signing bet365 horse racing odds US-Tajikistan agreement，The Taliban’s attacks against Afghan government forces are increasingly escalating，Causing serious casualties to Afghan government troops。Again，Vague attitude toward Al Qaeda。May 19, 2020，The U.S. Department of Defense released news，Although the Taliban made anti-terrorism guarantees in the agreement，But its leaders “are unwilling to openly break with Al Qaeda”。Although Al Qaeda is "worried about the US-Taliban peace talks"，But stated that "it will continue to maintain close relations with the Taliban"。Currently，No evidence of a split between the Taliban and Al Qaeda。The United Nations also clearly pointed out in the research report released at the end of January 2020，In view bet365 horse racing odds close "mutually beneficial" relationship between the Taliban and Al Qaeda for decades，It is unrealistic to expect the two to part ways。

　Third，The COVID-19 epidemic has further worsened the environment for the implementation bet365 horse racing odds agreement。The first patient with new coronavirus pneumonia was found in Afghanistan on February 24, 2020， Until May 23, 2020，The number of confirmed cases has soared to 9216，205 people died。Ongoing civil conflict、People are massively displaced and malnourished、The health care system is fragile、Border control is full of loopholes、Various factors including proximity to Iran, which is severely affected by the epidemic，Resulting in Afghanistan’s serious lack of self-rescue capabilities in response to the epidemic。The current international assistance is still relatively limited，The needs bet365 horse racing odds sick people in Afghanistan cannot be met in the short term，And in the acquisition and distribution of aid supplies，Corruption still exists at all levels of government in Afghanistan。The U.S. Department of Defense assesses that，The epidemic will seriously affect Afghanistan’s medical system and economy，Potentially infecting millions，Pushing millions of people deeper into poverty，And caused approximately 110,000 deaths。

The spread bet365 horse racing odds epidemic is exacerbating Afghanistan’s domestic security risks，It also brings unfavorable conditions to the execution bet365 horse racing odds agreement。First，Face-to-face contact between the two parties in the peace talks is more difficult。For example，The first "technical" talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban on the release of prisoners can only be held through video conference。Secondly，The epidemic is testing prison systems on both sides。If a prisoner on either side is infected or dies from the virus while in captivity，Negotiations may be seriously hindered。Again，Isolated by personnel、Road blockade，And the US military in Afghanistan suspended training of Afghan government troops、Influence of factors such as advice and assistance， The combat effectiveness bet365 horse racing odds Afghan government forces has been greatly weakened，The risk of violent terrorist attacks has increased significantly。Data display，March 1 to April 15, 2020，The Taliban’s attacks on Afghan government forces increased by more than 70% compared with the same period last year。So that on May 2nd，Colonel Sonny Leggett, spokesman for the US forces in Afghanistan, publicly appealed to the Taliban，Ask them to "restrain" and "reduce violence" to jointly respond to the new coronavirus epidemic。

The authority bet365 horse racing odds Afghan government has weakened and internal disputes remain unresolved、The Taliban’s obvious intention to violently seize power、The spread bet365 horse racing odds new coronavirus epidemic is accelerating，The above factors have led to repeated delays in the implementation bet365 horse racing odds US-Tajikistan peace agreement，The actual execution effect is also greatly reduced。The security situation in Afghanistan since the signing bet365 horse racing odds agreement shows that，The prospect of an agreement for peace in the short term expected by the Trump administration in the United States has failed to materialize，The current political reconciliation process in Afghanistan still faces many uncertainties。How to achieve order in NATO troops、While withdrawing in a responsible manner，Ensuring a smooth transition bet365 horse racing odds situation in Afghanistan， Still a difficult problem plaguing the U.S. government。

　　(This article is a phased result bet365 horse racing odds 2019 Jiangsu Province Social Science Applied Research Excellent Engineering Project "Research on Geopolitical Risks and Related Countermeasures that Jiangsu Enterprises May Encounter in Participating in the Construction bet365 horse racing odds China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" (19SYA-050))

(Author’s unit: Pakistan bet365 horse racing odds Center of Jiangsu Normal University)