Local time February 29, 2020，The U.S. government officially signs the peace agreement with the Taliban of Afghanistan (hereinafter referred to as "Taliban")。The United States promises to be within 135 days after the agreement is signed，Eliminates 5,000 American Army and close 5 military bases，Finally withdrawn from NATO within 14 months, all of NATO's military force。Acting，Taliban guarantees that its members are prohibited、Similar other organizations or individuals such as base organizations，Use Afghanistan as a security shelter threatening the United States and its allies。Agreement also stipulates that on March 10th, domestic political negotiations with the forces, including Taliban,，Before that, the government and Taliban each released 5,000 Taliban and 1,000 African prisoners。 The Trump administration has given high hopes for the thorough solution of Afghanistan through this agreement，The White House issued a statement on the same day saying: "This is a historic opportunity to establish long -lasting peace in Afghanistan。”

but，The signing of the Merita Peace Agreement did not prevent the continuous deterioration of the security situation in Afghanistan。April 27, 2020，The United Nations Assistance Group in Africa issued a report，After entering March，The conflict of Akucho has intensified，Taliban and other organizations such as violent activities not only stopped，Instead, there is an increasing increase。Observe from the dynamics of all parties bet365 best casino games in Afghanistan in the past three months and other related conditions，The performance of the agreement encountered many severe challenges。

First，Afghan government authority is weakened，Internal division intensify。After the Tower is directly discussed，The government has been in an embarrassing situation of marginalized for a long time，Even at the signature ceremony of the peace agreement, no government officials were attended。The relevant content of the agreement further damages the status of the Afghan government，Main manifestations: First of all，The United States does not promise to complete the withdrawal after the agreement is finalized，This means that the United States may withdraw all military forces at any time and "throw" Afghanistan issues to the Afghan government。Second，Requirement of 5,000 Taliban prisoners before the internal negotiations start，It will lose an important negotiation chip that will lose the AFC。again，The agreement only shows that the Afghan government should negotiate with the Taliban，But what is not clear what its specific role is。Last，The agreement stipulates that only the threat of armed forces such as Taliban and base organizations only protects the United States and its allies，but excluding the Afghan people、Government or Security Forces。The above measures have caused a huge impact on the authority of the Afghan government，As a result, the implementation of the clauses in the agreement and the opening of the internal negotiations cannot be in place。

At the same time，The internal division of the government is constantly intensified。2014 Afghanistan's cabinet，Gani, who represents the interests of southern bet365 live casino games Afghanistan as president，Abdullah, who represents the interests of the north, is the CEO，Arrangement of the two parties in the political architecture、Economic interest distribution and even the formulation of foreign policies，Various contradictions，As a result, the AFC is in a long -term dual -oppositional structure，The United States has never been able to integrate it into a force。The internal contradictions of the government reached the peak of the presidential election in 2019。Abdullah does not acknowledge the results announced by the Gani victory announced by the Independent Election Commission in February 2020，and held their respective presidential inaugurations with Guni on March 9。Under the pressure of the United States，On May 17th, the two sides reached a compromise，cancel Abdullah's chief ruling official title，But granted him to appoint half of the government's cabinet members，and appointed it responsible for negotiation with Taliban。But this approach has not fundamentally solved the problem of internal division of the Afghan government，At the same time，It may increase the differences between the two parties in Taliban's attitude，Even the rupture of subsequent negotiations。

2，The binding power of the protocol for Taliban needs to be tested。First，Taliban is more determined to establish a political goal。Although he was hit hard at the beginning of the Afghanistan war，But Taliban has not been completely eliminated，By establishing a stronghold in the rural areas of A Guangtong and launching guerrilla warfare，Gradually evolved into the largest anti -government armed forces in Aju。The highest political goal of the organization has always bet365 best casino games overturned the ASEAC government、Restore its rule of Afghanistan。Since 2018, the US government has taken the initiative to negotiate directly with the Taliban and the final signing of the Mita Peace Agreement，greatly improved the political legitimacy and international influence of Taliban，It also encouraged its foundation to pursue the founding of the country。So，Western scholars generally think，Taliban regards the agreement as the "End of the Occupation" protocol，instead of the peace talk agreement with the Afghan government。Just one week after the agreement is signed，Taliban expressed，The organization will continue to carry out armed activities，until you master the regime。May 20, 2020，The leader of the Taliban issued a statement on the official website of the organization，Relax the requirements of Taliban ruled Afghanistan。Second，Echo with political appeal，Taliban's violent activities against the Afghan government are also continuously upgraded。The Ah National Security Council said，Since the signing of the Meita Agreement，Taliban's attack on Afghan government forces has become increasingly upgraded，Causes serious casualties of the Afghan government forces。again，Vague attitude towards the base organization。May 19, 2020，The US Department of Defense released a message，Although Taliban made counter -terrorism guarantee in the agreement，But its leader "is unwilling to break publicly with the base organization"。And although the base organization is "worry about the peace talks of the Tower"，But it means "it will continue to be closely related to the Taliban"。Current，No evidence shows that there is split between Taliban and base bet365 best casino games organizations。The United Nations also clearly pointed out in the research report released by the United Nations at the end of January 2020，In view of the close "mutual benefit" relationship between Taliban and the base organization for decades，It is not realistic to expect the two to part ways。

third，The epidemic of the new crown pneumonia further deteriorated the environment of the protocol execution。February 24, 2020 Afghanistan found the first patient with new crown pneumonia， until May 23, 2020，The number of diagnosis has soared to 9216 people，Death 205 people。Continuous domestic conflict、A large number of people who are displaced and generally malnourished、The medical care system is fragile、Border management and control vulnerability hundreds、Iran adjacent to Iran, which is seriously epidemic，As a result, Afghanistan has a serious insufficient ability to save self -rescue when dealing with the epidemic。The current international assistance is still relatively limited，Can't meet the needs of people bet365 best casino games in Afghanistan in the short term，In terms of the acquisition and distribution of assistance materials，The Aya -level government still has corruption。The U.S. Department of Defense Evaluation Consid by，The epidemic will seriously affect the Afghan medical system and economy，It may infect millions of people，Mills of millions of people into deeper poverty，and cause about 110,000 people to die。

The epidemic spreads while intensifying the domestic security risks of Afghanistan，It also brings unfavorable conditions to the execution of the agreement。First，The contact between the face of the peace between the peace talks is even more difficult。For example，The first bet365 Play online games "technology" talks about the release of prisoners on the government and Taliban can only be held through video conferences。Second，The epidemic tests the prison system of both sides。If the prisoners of any party are infected or died in the virus during the imprisonment，Negotiations may be seriously hindered。again，isolated by personnel、Road blockade，and the U.S. Army stationed in Afghanistan suspended training against the Afghan government、Suggestions and assistance effects such as factors， The combat effectiveness of the government army is greatly weakened，The risk of suffering from terrorist attacks is significantly increased。Data display，March 1st to April 15th, 2020，Taliban's attack on the Afghan government has increased by more than 70%compared with the same period last year。So on May 2，Spokesperson of the U.S. forces in Arabia, Colonel Sonny Ledt, publicly appealed to Taliban，Requires it "restraint" and "reduce violence" to commonly respond to the new crown pneumonia.。

African government is weakened and internal disputes are suspended and unreasonable、Taliban's violent seizure of power is obvious、New crown pneumonia epidemic is accelerated and spreads，The above factors have caused the implementation of the Meita Peace Agreement to repeatedly delay，The actual execution effect is also greatly reduced。Since the signing of the agreement, the security situation in A country is expressed，The Trump administration is expected to change the picture of peace in the short term without being able to be fulfilled，The current political reconciliation process of Afghanistan still faces many uncertainty。How to achieve orderly in order to achieve the Bet365 app download NATO army、At the same time of withdrawing the responsible method，Ensure that the situation is smooth transition， It is still a problem that plagues the US government。

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(Author Unit: Pakistan Research Center of Jiangsu Normal University)