Since the 1990s，With the implementation of trade liberalization policy in China and ASEAN countries，Global Value Chain further extend and develop in East Asia。Under the East Asia International Division of Work，Japan、Core components of production cores such as South Korea and other developed economies，Emerging economies such as China and ASEAN countries are processed and assembled，The final product exports to the market of developed countries such as Europe and the United States。By the mid -to -late 1990s，East Asia has formed a regional production network with foreign direct investment and intermediate product trade as the link。

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　　As an important node as an East Asian production network，The bilateral trade between China and most ASEAN countries is mainly intermediate products。1997 After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis erupted until 2008, the global financial crisis broke out，The proportion of semi -finished products and parts trade in China -ASEAN bilateral trade remains at about 60%。Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008，The proportion of trade between semi -finished products and components continues to recover from 52.5%in 2009，reached 58.8%in 2018，Closer to the level before the crisis。Under the pull of the intermediate product trade，The scale of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries has remained rapid growth。According to the United Nations Commodity Trade Database Statistics，1995-2019，China -ASEAN bilateral cargo trade annual growth rate of 15.5%，3 percentage points higher than the average annual growth rate of China's foreign cargo trade。

Post -crisis era，Adjustment and evolution of the global value chain has an important impact on the economic and trade relations between China and ASEAN。In terms of product structure，Due to the upgrading of China's industrial structure and the adjustment of international division of labor in the product，2009-2018，In China -ASEAN cargo trade，The proportion of parts of the parts of the parts decreased from 27.6%to 15.6%，The proportion of semi -finished products increased from 24.9%to 43.2%。In the country，Since 2014，Due to South Korea Samsung、Modern、LG bet365 live casino games Group、SK Group and other multinational companies through the establishment of a production line in Vietnam，Adjust the regional supply chain，The scale of intermediate products between China and Vietnam has expanded rapidly。Since 2016，Vietnam surpass Malaysia，Become China's largest trading partner in ASEAN。

Regional trade liberalization is a necessary condition for strengthening the economic and trade relations between China and ASEAN countries。The triangular trading model under the global value chain division of the work system makes the East Asian economy seriously rely on the European and American markets。Since the 21st century，To achieve diversification of growth power，East Asian economies by signing bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements，Promote regional economic integration。November 2002，China and ASEAN countries launched the China -ASEAN Free Trade Zone negotiation，and officially completed the China -ASEAN Free Trade Zone in January 2010。November 2015，The two parties signed the "China -ASEAN Free Trade Zone Upgrade Protocol"，This agreement will take effect in October 2019。

With the establishment and upgrade of China -ASEAN Free Trade Zone，Liberalization and convenience of bilateral trade investment accelerates，The intensity of bilateral economic and trade relations is significantly improved。2002-2010，China -ASEAN bilateral cargo trade accounts for the proportion of China's total foreign cargo trade.，This indicator increases from 10%to 14%。other，China's position in the ASEAN export market has increased significantly。2010-2018，In the exit of ASEAN primary products，China's market share has increased from 23%to 29%; in the export of ASEAN consumer goods，China's market share has doubled from 5%to 10%。An important model of as a regional economic integration practice，The construction and upgrade of China -ASEAN Free Trade Zone has an incentive and demonstration effect on promoting the economic integration of East Asia。In the foreseeable future，The signing of the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) will provide new opportunities and kinetic energy for strengthening China -ASEAN economic and trade relations。

International capacity cooperation is an important driving force for deepening China's economic and trade relations with ASEAN countries。The "Belt and Road" initiative has been proposed，International production capacity cooperation has become an important Bet365 lotto review direction for China and ASEAN countries to develop economic and trade cooperation。September 2016，The two parties issued the "China -ASEAN Capacity Cooperation Statement"，Clarified the integration point and concept of the interests of both parties，Laipan the foundation for promoting international capacity cooperation。The production capacity cooperation between China and ASEAN countries covers infrastructure construction、Traditional Manufacturing、Cross -border e -commerce、Information technology and financial services and many areas。

With China -ASEAN international capacity cooperation steadily advance，China becomes one of the important sources of foreign direct investment (FDI) of ASEAN countries。According to the statistics of the ASEAN Secretariat，2014-2018 China ’s FDI output to ASEAN countries cumulative is 46.6 billion U.S. dollars，7%of ASEAN FDI inflows during the same period。Although this number is the same as the European Union、The proportion of the United States and Japan still has a large gap，But it has reflected the vigorous trend of China and ASEAN countries to develop international capacity cooperation。

Under the background of the slowdown of the global economy and even decline，Developed economies guides international capital backflow，The international capital gap of the emerging economy is constantly expanding。2018，The FDI inflow of the United States shows a cliff -like decline in the FDI inflow of ASEAN countries，The proportion of FDI inflows in ASEAN FDI has dropped sharply from 16.9%in 2017 to 5.5%。According to the CEIC database，2019，FDI inflow of the Philippines decreased by more than 20%，FDI inflows in Thailand and Laos decreased by more than 50%。The post -epidemic period，China's status as a source of FDI as the ASEAN country will rise further，Strengthening international capacity cooperation will become an important driving force for deepening China's economic and trade relations with China。

　Regional production chain strengthening economic and trade relations

　　Look at it in the short term，China -ASEAN economic and trade relations are expected to be further strengthened。The post -epidemic period，Under the bilateral economic and trade cooperation guided by economic recovery，China -ASEAN economic and trade relations are expected to be further strengthened。Looking horizontally，China -ASEAN economic and trade relations are full of toughness。Under the impact of the new crown pneumonia，The scale of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN maintains a growth trend。According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs，January to May 2020，in the same United States、EU、Japan and other trade partners such as bilateral trade declined significantly year -on -year，The bilateral trade volume of China and ASEAN (pricing at RMB) increased by 4.2%year -on -year。Where，China's export trade amount to ASEAN increases by 2.8%year -on -year，The import trade amount to ASEAN increases by 6%year -on -year。Four months before 2020，ASEAN not only becomes China's largest trading partner，It has also become China's largest source of imports and the third largest export market。

Looking at it vertically，Although under the impact of the epidemic，China's growth rate of exports to ASEAN has decreased significantly，The growth rate of import and export is generally slowed，But the proportion of China -ASEAN bilateral trade in China's foreign trade has maintained an upward trend。January to May 2020，Although the growth rate of bilateral trade between China -ASEAN decreases from 14.1%in 2019 to 4.2%，But China -ASEAN bilateral trade accounts for China's total foreign trade rose from 14.0%in 2019 to 14.7%。other，Although China's export growth rate of ASEAN decreased from 17.8%in 2019 to 2.8%，But the ASEAN market accounts for 15.1%of China's total exports，The gap with the EU and the US market is only 0.5 percentage points。

From the perspective of the composition of the country，China -ASEAN bilateral trade structure is basically stable，But showing a trend of differentiation of trade growth。January to May 2020，The proportion of bilateral trade volume in China and the six ASEAN countries accounted for China -ASEAN bilateral trade value is close to 95%，According to the proportion of Vietnam from high to low、Malaysia、Thailand、Singapore、Indonesia、Philippines。Where，The growth rates of bilateral trade with Vietnam and Thailand were 16.7%and 8.1%，The bilateral trade with the Philippines decreased by 12.9%year -on -year，The growth rate of bilateral trade with the other three countries is between 0.3%and 0.9%。

In the short term，Although the domestic economic growth rate、Exit drop、Extinations of debt burden may promote ASEAN countries to take trade protection measures，But the possibility of trade protection measures to China in China is not high。First，Implementation of trade protection measures is not of great significance to promote the recovery of the domestic economic recovery。In view of the high trade dependence between China and ASEAN，The cost of trade friction is huge，The implementation of trade protection measures Bet365 lotto review will not lose money。2，Under the background of the comprehensive upgrade of the China -ASEAN Free Trade Zone，China and ASEAN countries are more inclined to maintain the momentum of free trade cooperation。May 29, 2020，Minister of Economic and Trade, China and ASEAN National Economic and Trade issued a joint statement，Fully affirmed the important role of the China -ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on promoting the development of trade and investment in both parties，Promise to keep the market open，Eliminate unnecessary trade restrictions，Create a good investment business environment。

Look at it from medium and long term，Both parties need to properly respond to challenges facing international capacity cooperation。New crown pneumonia's epidemic makes the diversified demand for multinational companies' supply chain highlight。Japan launched in April 2020 in the anti -epidemic economic assistance plan，Proposed the "Reform Supply Chain" project，Set special funds to support Japanese companies to transfer some high value -added production lines back to Japan，and layout some commodity lines to Southeast Asian countries，Help Japanese companies to achieve diversified supply chain。From the middle and long term，The transfer and reorganization of the regional production chain and the value chain may affect the trade relationship between China and ASEAN countries。To cope with the localization and diversification trend of the global value chain adjustment，It should be encouraged to build a regional production chain in Southeast Asia，Incorporate local enterprises into the regional production network，Lay the micro foundation for the deepening development of China -ASEAN economic and trade relations during the post -epidemic period。

From the middle and long term，International capacity cooperation for Industry 4.0 will become the core motivation for strengthening China -ASEAN economic and trade relations，But you need to properly respond to the risks and challenges faced in international capacity cooperation。To welcome a new round of technology and industrial revolution，China and most ASEAN countries have launched their respective versions of the "Industry 4.0" plan。For example，Made in China 2025、Thailand 4.0、Indonesian "Industry 4.0" roadmap, etc.。The key development areas of these planning settings are expected to become a growth point for production capacity cooperation between China and ASEAN countries。What needs attention is，Domestic political and economic dynamics of the host country、Disputes bet365 Play online games of bilateral territorial disputes、Intervention and other factors of major country countries may have an impact on foreign economic policies in ASEAN countries，So as to bring pressure and challenges to the production capacity cooperation between China and ASEAN countries。

other，International production capacity cooperation in the field of infrastructure construction may face the competition of large powers。Except the "High -quality Infrastructure Partner" proposed by Japan，November 2019，The United States proposed the "Blue Dot Network" plan，The right to formulate the standard of competition infrastructure construction，Breeding the development of the "Belt and Road" initiative with this。In the context of the strategic competition in the country，Most ASEAN countries tend to adopt a large country balance strategy，Betting risks through bets on both sides，Selecting the camera for specific issues。ASEAN countries may use competition between different initiatives，Improve your bargaining ability in project negotiations。

　　Consolidate and deepen political mutual trust

First，Build a higher level of strategic partnership。Take the 30th anniversary of establishing a dialogue relationship in China -ASEAN in 2021 as an opportunity，China and ASEAN countries should consolidate and deepen political mutual trust，Actively promote the "South China Sea Conduct" consultation，To promote the development of China and ASEAN countries、Multi -layered、Creation of economic and trade cooperation in the wide field。

Second，Promote the signing and effectiveness of RCEP。According to the joint statement of the third leader meeting of the RCEP in November 2019，15 RCEP members have ended all 20 chapters of text negotiations，But India has important problems and has not been resolved。As of now, India has not made a decision to return to negotiations，RCEP all members to sign an agreement within the year are reduced。The relationship between members of RCEP members may become a risk factor that hinders the signing of the agreement。China should actively communicate with ASEAN countries，Promoting 15 RCEP members signed the RCEP phase protocol。

third，Gradually establish and improve the "Belt and Road" infrastructure construction standard system。The post -epidemic period，"Belt and Road" enters the new stage of "High -quality Construction"。It is recommended to carry out third -party market cooperation，Principles of the actual needs of developing countries and the principles of co -business bet365 Play online games and co -construction and sharing，Design and improve the "Belt and Road" infrastructure construction standard system，Do long -term plan，Make it gradually in line with international standards。

　　(This article is the State Social Science Fund Youth Project "Institutional Game and Chinese Countermeasure Research in the Asia -Pacific Regional Economic Governance in the TPP era" (19CGJ044) phased results)

(Author Unit: Institute of International Issues of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)