The prevention and resolution of systemic risks is one of the major strategies of the current party and the country。Systemic risks are often associated with financial crisis and stability of financial，Is an extreme macro financial risk。This type of risk refers to the risk of infection within the financial sector，The risk of infectious infection will erupt to a certain extent，and therefore cause negative externality to the real economy。

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Systemic risk contains two dimensions: time dimension and spatial dimension。

The systemic risk of time dimension refers to the evolution trend of the overall risk of the financial sector over time，Essentially reflects the periodicity of the financial sector as shown in the real economy fluctuations。The policy of preventing and resolving the time dimension systemic risk is the time dimension macro -prudential policy，The focus is on counter -financial cycle regulation。Generally speaking，Time dimension Macro -prudential policy tools often use tools in other fields，For example, micro -prudential policy (such as capital adequacy ratio requirements)、Real estate regulation policy (housing down payment comparison、Limit purchase、Limited loan, etc.)、Capital account management policy (such as currency mismatch management、Capital inflow outflow management), etc.。So，The characteristics of macro -prudential policy tools are its perspective，is to adjust the inverse financial cycle。

The systemic risk of spatial dimension refers to the overall risk of the financial sector in financial institutions、Financial Market、Allocation of financial tools，Essentially reflects the cross -institutions inside the financial sector、Cross -market、Cross -tool bet365 live casino games infectivity。The policy of preventing and resolving the systemic risk of space dimension is the macro -prudential policy of space dimension，The focus is on cutting the infection path。Generally speaking，Space dimension cautious tools also use tools in other fields，Especially the tools in the prudent field，For example, capital adequacy ratio requirements。but，When formulating a policy，The focus of the space dimension is the following two points。First, those institutions with higher risk contribution of the entire system、Market、Tools。Because these institutions、Market、Once there is a problem with the tool，It will cause huge risk infectiousness through the entire financial system network。So，These institutions、Market、Tools，Usually called a system importance agency、System importance market、System importance tool。Second, institutions that are affected by the risk infection of the entire financial system、Market、Tools。Because in the entire financial system network，Once the risk of infection occurs，These institutions、Market、Tools are the most likely to cause problems due to the infection of the network system，Therefore, it is the most vulnerable in the entire system network、The most prone to problems with problems。These nodes are easily detonated，So big problems。

　　Time dimension and dynamic random general equilibrium model

Current，The idea of ​​systemic risks and macro -prudential policies in the academic research time dimension，Models in the field of macroeconomics。This model is mainly a dynamic random general equilibrium model (DSGE)。Generally speaking，Dynamic random general equilibrium model is to divide the economy into several departments，Generally includes the residential department (introducing consumption and labor)、Enterprise Department (Introducing Investment and Production)、Government departments (introduced bet365 best casino games fiscal policy and monetary policy)。The financial department has not received enough attention in macroeconomics。Even through BGG's "Financial Accelerator" and KM's "Credit Mortgage constraint" mechanism embedded in borrowing，But the financial department has not been directly introduced into the model。The reason is，These models mainly pay attention to financial friction on credit demand.。

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis，Scholars believe that the financial department is not only affected by the macroeconomic impact，And the financial department is also an important reason for macroeconomic fluctuations。For this，Many studies introduce the financial sector through various channels，The core is to pay attention to the friction of the credit supply side。The first way，Mainly restrict the leverage of the financial sector by introducing exogenous regulatory requirements。The introduction of regulatory requirements generally uses Rotemberg second -order adjustment cost introduction。This path is an exogenous leverage model。The second way，Mainly build a financial contract to study the asymmetry of information between banks and deposits。The common feature of this model is that banks exist in moral risk，And moral risk limits the leverage of commercial banks，Then the leverage and capital of commercial banks are very critical for commercial bank loans。

Introduction to the financial sector in the macroeconomic sector，Make research macro -prudential policies possible。The introduction of macro -prudential policies is mainly during the lending process，Change the cost of obtaining loan funds for financial institutions or borrowers or changes to the number of lending funds to achieve。A core feature is that these policy tools are adjusted counter -cyclical，The corresponding cycle indicators are often credit volume、House prices and other financial variables。

The advantage of this Bet365 app download type of research is to see the generation of financial risks from the perspective of the macroeconomic impact，It is a systemic risk study under a large macro financial perspective。The attention of this type of research lies in the time dimension of systemic risks and macro -prudential time。Although the research perspective is magnificent，But this type of research is essentially studying macroeconomic fluctuations，Pay less attention to systemic risks，The reason is the following four aspects。First，The inherent gene of a dynamic random general equilibrium model lies in depicting macroeconomic fluctuations rather than financial risks。Its large number of model components are placed in the macroeconomic department，instead of the financial sector。Model is mainly to portray the fluctuations of macroeconomic -related variables，instead of financial risk variables。2，Dynamic random general equilibrium model is based on representative agent agent，It is difficult to portray the risks of infection through various connections。The essence of systemic risk is the risk brought by heterogeneous financial institutions through financial association。Although a type of dynamic random general equilibrium model is now concerned about heterogeneity。But this heterogeneity is often a simple classification，The heterogeneity of the real institution is far away。other，Dynamic random general equilibrium model is difficult to handle the correlation between institutions，However, association is the core of systemic risk。third，Dynamic random general equilibrium model is mainly linear models，It is difficult to portray the systemic risk that is essentially a non -linear nature。In fact，Systemic risk corresponds to extreme risks，Is a kind of tail risk。This tail risk is a non -linear relationship to some extent。But，At present, most of the dynamic random general equilibrium models can be simulated，Only linear expansion can only be Bet365 lotto review carried out near the model steady state，This obviously deviates from the original meaning of systemic risk。Although some models start to pay attention to the global solution of the model，instead of unfolding near steady -state。but，These models often only contain less variables and it is difficult to consider the problem of heterogeneous financial institutions。These research on systemic risks is obviously not enough。Fourth，Dynamic random general equilibrium model Rarely contains systemic risk variables，Instead of credit、House prices and other variables related to systemic risks are replaced。

　　Space dimension and financial association model

Current，The idea of ​​systemic risks and macro -prudential policies in the academic field of academia，Relying on the financial connection model, including financial network models and tail dependencies。These models are based on capturing the connection between financial institutions。

But，Whether it is the financial network model and the rear dependency model，The most energetic correlation is placed on the interior of the financial sector，insufficient attention on external impact。other，These models often impact the default shock from within the financial department。For example，The impact of the financial network model often falls at asset prices、Credit assets suffer from bad impact、A shock of direct bankruptcy of financial institutions，Tail dependency model often uses the decline in stock yield as impact。

From this we know，The impact and association of financial association models，All use the internal perspective of the financial department。This perspective makes the research systemic risk relatively narrow，and the understanding of systemic risks is not deep。In fact，The financial department as a service provider in the real economy，There are various contacts with credit as the core。A complete systemic risk generation chain should be: impact from the real economy，It has a adverse effect on the financial Bet365 app download sector; it should be enlarged by the rejuvenation of the financial sector and then enlarged，Finally, it causes negative externality to the real economy through systemic risk costs。Patting inside the financial department，Both cut off the impact source of systemic risks，It also lacks the impact export of systemic risks，Is incomplete、Not deep systemic risk research。

Therefore，Research experience in systemic risks combined with time dimension，Research on systemic risks of space dimensions can be improved，Systemic risk prevention and resolution of systemic risk in the perspective of macro financial。

　　Build an effective and reasonable systemic risk measurement index

The premise of systemic risk prevention and resolution is to build effective and reasonable systemic risk measurement indicators。According to the aforementioned analysis，The premise of building such a systemic risk measurement index is to analyze the macroeconomic and financial sector as a whole。

Specific speaking，When considering the association of the financial department，Basically follow the method of financial association model method to quantify network correlation。Financial association is the core of systemic risk，So，This core part needs to learn from the previous spatial dimension systemic risk construction ideas。

In order to introduce systemic risks, the source of impact and impact export，Macroeconomic indicators can be introduced into a financial association model。As for how to introduce，You need to improve the financial association model，Incorporate macroeconomic indicators。These are the research directions of future systemic risks。For network model，Macroeconomic indicators can be introduced through the macro pressure test;，You can introduce macroeconomic indicators through the hybrid frequency MF method。

　(This article is the National Natural Science Foundation Emergency Topic "exchange rate market change、Cross -border capital flow and financial risk prevention "(71850005)、National Natural Science Foundation Youth Project "Monetary Policy、Real estate prices and financial stability "(71503290) phased results)

(Author Unit: School of Finance at Central University of Finance and Economics)