In recent years，Modern Monetary theory，referred to as MMT) caused fierce political and economic debate in the United States，As the US election approach the US election in 2020，It has become a buzzword in Washington, DC。The reason why modern currency theory is heatedly discussed，It is mainly because it claims that "the fiscal deficit is unrelated to those countries that can borrow with their domestic currency"，That is to say，Since the United States can use its own currency borrowing，When the US government needs to repay debt，It can be easily solved by printing more dollars; if it causes inflation，By increasing the tax scale, you can stabilize the price。

The policy of modern currency theory advocates that it can meet the Trump administration's budget demand for expanding infrastructure investment and tax cuts，It can also satisfy the Democratic Party Green New Deal、FCO proposals for the national medical insurance and other huge financial expenditures，It is generally welcome by the American politics。But at the same time，Fed Chairman Powell said to the US Congress，"Complete error" theory of modern currency theory。Some mainstream economists also oppose the point of view of modern currency theory，I think its theoretical logic is vague，Policy claims are very dangerous。This article is from the perspective of coordination and coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy，The rise of modern currency theory、Perspective and its influence starts discussions。

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The meaning of "modern currency" is the legal currency (Fiat Money)，Relying on the government's laws to become legal currency，Different metal currencies from the period of the golden version，It is not exchanged for gold and silver banknotes，Its purchasing power depends on the government's authority and reputation。Modern currency theory is not a new theory，but produced in the 1990s，The theory of monetary currency、endogenous currency theory、Keynesism, etc.，Proposal fiscal Bet365 lotto review deficit monetization、Government as the last employer through debt financing to ensure full employment and other government intervention policies。The theory has attracted much attention in the past and has attracted much attention in recent years.，It is closely related to the economic growth model of debt -driven types of debt -driven in the United States and other developed countries since 2008。

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008，To prevent the domestic economy from decline，The United States, Japan and Europe, etc., chose a debt -driven economic growth model。On the one hand，By issuing huge national debt，Expand government expenditure，Support financial institutions or enterprises that are trapped in difficulties，to stimulate economic growth; on the other hand，Open the quantitative easing policy (QE) for nearly 10 years (QE)，The interest rates of various countries are generally lower，Some are even lower than zero，Provide cheap funds for government debt and expand expenditure。Under the strong stimulus of the dual loose policy combination，The developed economy barely returned to the orbit of normal economic growth around 2016，But the price paid is also very high -government debt quickly expands，The proportion of GDP is rising rapidly。The proportion of US government debt accounted for its GDP between 1988 and 2007, around 60%，and 2007-2015，The proportion rose from 64%to 105%，The level is close to the level of World War II。2007-2015 The proportion of debt in Japan and the euro zone government has increased significantly，Japan has increased from 183%to 248%，The euro area has increased from 65%to 92%，As a result, multiple EU member states are in a government debt crisis。

Looking at it for a long time，This debt -driven economic growth model is not stable，The road of economic recovery in the United States, Japan and Europe is mostly twists and turns。Take the United States as an example，After 8 years of policy stimulation，2016-2018 The United States has achieved strong economic growth，But since 2018，Enterprise fixed asset investment has slowed down obviously，Exit year bet365 best casino games by year，Manufacturing activity indicators are also weakening，The growth rate of GDP in the second and third quarters of 2019 fell to about 2%。

Uncertainty in the face of economic growth prospects，The Federal Reserve returns to loose monetary policy again，The process of the normalization of monetary policy in advance，and continuously cut interest rates from August to October 2019，The market's expectations for restarting QE are continuously enhanced。In terms of fiscal policy，Government debt upper limit is constantly raising，The Trump administration's tax reduction policy has increased the federal government's income growth，Government financing depends more on debt issuance。Since 2008，US Congress has raised more than 10 upper limit of federal government debt，To meet the needs of the federal government borrowing。According to the US federal government budget，2020 Federal government debt scale at the end of the fiscal year will continue to innovate high，reaches $ 24 trillion。For this，U.S. media comments believe，U.S. government debt limit constraints have become a joke。

In the next few years，Developed economies will continue the debt -driven economic growth model，But the economic growth effect of expansion fiscal policy is constantly decreasing，It needs stronger stimuli，Therefore, people are generally worried，This model will eventually bring the unsustainable government debt，Causes inflation or debt crisis。Modern currency theory is a different path，I believe that government debt is not a burden on economic growth，but a necessity for economic prosperity，Giant fiscal deficit and government debt will not cause inflation。This view has elaborated to a certain extent that it stimulates the contradiction between stimulating economic growth and the unsustainable government debt，Provides theoretical defense for debt -driven economic growth model。This is also the reason why modern currency theory comes from obscurity to stand out。

　Try to exchange the role of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank

In terms of the choice of macro policy，Modern currency theory attaches great importance to fiscal policy，I believe that Bet365 lotto review the government should not rely on the central bank to manage the economy through interest rates，On the contrary，It should be managed through government expenditure and tax management economy; at the same time，No taxes are required to "pay" government expenditures，You only need to ensure that people accept the legal currency，and control inflation when necessary。As far as the United States is concerned，The US Department of Finance should control inflation，The Fed should provide funds for government spending。

Modern currency theory advocates fiscal deficit currency，Defense for government debt。The argument is mainly expanded from two aspects。First, the surplus of the non -governmental department corresponds to the fiscal deficit，helps promote economic prosperity。Modern currency theory thinks，Government deficit will increase the net financial assets of the private sector。The financial assets generated between the parties of the private sector are completely offset by financial liabilities，No net effect on public financial assets，and the fiscal deficit increased the total financial wealth，to increase income and stimulate expenditure，Bring greater actual investment，Then promote economic prosperity。Critics think，This theory emphasizes the wealth hallucinations of government bonds，I did not realize that the expectations of future tax increase may affect people's views on wealth。Second, the government can control the level of inflation。Modern currency theory thinks，As long as one of the three conditions is met，Financial deficit monetization will not cause inflation，Severe unemployment occurs; the government uses tax to control inflation; the endogenous supply of the bank system currency can offset currency expansion。These claims also have its inference basis，But critics analyze the central bank's balance sheet，and the capital exchanges between the Fanba Political Department and the central bank，I believe that the theory of modern currency is too simplified，The effect of constraining inflation in the above three conditions is too optimistic，or ignore the limitations of the condition Bet365 app download itself，or I don’t know how to implement it in detail，Financial deficit may push interest rates to unsustainable levels，Long -term deficit will weaken the market's confidence in the US dollar。

Lei Dario, the founder of Bridge Water Fund, is a firm supporter of modern currency theory，He calls the theory of modern currency the third generation monetary policy。The first generation of monetary policy is traditional monetary policy，By reducing interest rates to stimulate economic growth; second -generation monetary policy is quantitative easing monetary policy，Economic growth stimulated through the expansion of the central bank's balance sheet。Dario thinks，The capitalist system is inefficient in solving the problem of U.S. income inequality，The income inequality of most developed countries in the world has been steadily intensified。The first generation of monetary policy and the second -generation monetary policy are conducive to high -income groups。In the next economic recession，The stimulus effect of quantitative easing and interest rate cuts will be reduced，The direction of the evolution of the future monetary policy should be the theory of modern currency。So it seems，Coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy will enter version 3.0，This is not only related to stimulating economic growth，Adjustment of the distribution of social wealth。

　The road of American budget deficit is unprecedented

So，modern currency theory is an inevitable choice in the future，Is it a dangerous idea that causes inflation and financial collapse? There is no unified conclusion at present。

In practice，Some scholars regard Japan as a successful model to promote modern currency theory。After the Japanese bubble economy in the 1990s was burst，Always using expansion fiscal policy to stimulate economic recovery，As early as the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, quantitative easing monetary policy。Current，Japanese government debt is about 2 times its GDP，and rely on the Bank of Japan to undertake nearly half of government debt。but but，Japan's inflation level has long fluctuated at zero level，The interest rate of its government bonds is about the lowest in the world，From February bet365 live casino games 2019 to the present，10 -year Treasury yields have been hovering below zero，The lowest reached -0.294%。but，Kuroda Noshiya, president of the Bank of Japan, denied that Japan relied on modern currency theory，and indicate，Once the price is close to the target，The Bank of Japan will discuss the withdrawal of the loose policy，The Japanese government has promised to return fiscal policy to normal track。

Regardless of whether the United States adopts the policy of modern currency theory，It is an indisputable fact that its budget deficit is getting higher and higher。According to the prediction of the US Congress Budget Office，The annual budget deficit of the United States will increase from 3.8%of GDP in 2018 to 7.1%in 2028 and 10.5%in 2038，In these 20 years，The proportion of federal debt held by the public accounted for GDP from 78%to 148%。History，None of the great powers like the United States are when the economic strength is strong，willful and unlimited expansion of deficit expenditure。Thus there may be three consequences: First, rising national debt interest rates and mortgage loans，Debt bubbles are crushed; second, Japanese -style economic trap，The Fed becomes the main debt holder of the United States，The economy is increasingly declining; the third is that the United States relies on "universal dollar"，Provide funds for the rising U.S. Treasury bonds，Strong economic growth，solved the pension expenditure of the "baby tide" population，But in the end we still weaken the US dollar reputation，As a result, the interest rate of its government bonds suddenly soared and the economic crisis。

Needless to say，Modern currency theory has a lot of vagueness in theoretical logic，Similar; from the actual situation and the developed economy government's preference for expanding the budget deficit，Modern currency theory has a place，And the expansion of income distribution gaps and other social problems，It has a certain depth。American politicians are also calling on the US Congress to hold a special hearing for modern currency theory，Can't underestimate the impact of the theory on future policy。Visible，Research on macro policies for developed economies in bet365 live casino games the future not only needs to pay attention to its fiscal policy、Monetary policy itself，Pay attention to the coordination and cooperation between fiscal policy and monetary policy，Pay attention to the internal logic and external overflow effects of fiscal deficitization of developed countries in developed countries。

　　(The author is the party secretary of the Party Committee of the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher; Researcher in the Institute of Private Cooperation and Development of Zhongcai Gong)