Use comprehensive and integrated methodology to break through the cognitive limitations of bet365 Play online games science
December 10, 2019 09:32 Source: "Chinese bet365 Play online games Sciences Journal" Issue 1833, December 10, 2019 Author: Wan Xiangyu Cai Yuezhou

  A new round of scientific and technological revolution supported by big data,Provided system scan for bet365 Play online games、Dynamic tracking、The possibility of technological breakthroughs such as causal mining and total approximation,And may lead to a systematic paradigm of bet365 Play online games、Fundamental changes;The direction of change may be more based on social theory and social reality issues,Proactively mine multi-data base,Build a network of connections among social subjects;More inclined to make full use of the comprehensive integration model of human-machine integration,Tracing back to the origin and logical transmission mechanism of social phenomena,Precisely quantified structural analysis of bet365 Play online games objects、Dynamic prediction and simulation deduction。

"Social science" is usually positioned as science about the nature and laws of social things,It is a subject category that applies scientific methods to study human social phenomena。Scientificization is the basic connotation of social science,This requires that social science should be as objective as natural science、The scientific characteristics of testability and systematicness。Over a hundred years,Social sciences show a significant trend of becoming natural sciences,Including mathematical analysis、Statistics、Metrology、System Theory、A series of research methods in natural science fields including operations research and even experimental tools,has been introduced into the field of bet365 Play online games,Objectification for social science、Provides technical support for the quantification and precision process,Changed the research system and research paradigm of social sciences,Greatly promoted the development of social sciences。

  There are cognitive limitations in the existing paradigm of bet365 Play online games

Same as physics、Chemistry and other natural sciences are similar,Research in many fields of social science will put forward some kind of theory or doctrine based on the observed social phenomena,Then verify it from an empirical perspective through data analysis and other methods (support)。However,Many theoretical theories in the field of social sciences originated from (scientific) social surveys,But there is inevitably randomness out of control、Non-observation information、Model oversimplification、Problems such as assuming too strict premises,The supporting work in the empirical link will also be troubled by biased or inconsistent conclusions。This means,Under the existing paradigm of bet365 Play online games,Study the randomness of the system、Fuzziness and subjectivity are difficult to fundamentally eliminate or effectively solve;The corresponding research results are also difficult to verify using a paradigm similar to natural science、Verification,Validation & Accreditation,VVA)。This creates an insurmountable limitation (or cognitive gap) in the understanding of economic and social phenomena within the existing paradigm of bet365 Play online games。

The root causes of cognitive limitations (cognitive gaps) in bet365 Play online games,The first is human social activities as the object of bet365 Play online games,Precisely derived from the complex adaptive characteristics of human social activities。Different from the magnitude jump in nature、Complex systems formed by emergence,The complex adaptability of human social activities has its unique features,Specifically, it focuses on the following aspects。

First, bet365 Play online games complexity caused by heterogeneous attributes。Macro bet365 Play online games performance essentially comes from the accumulation of individual attributes at the micro level。In reality, the attributes of microscopic individuals vary widely,bet365 Play online games groups with the same total amount,The internal distribution pattern may be completely different。Traditional research methods using typical individual analysis mode or total analysis mode,Abandoned the micro-heterogeneous origin of bet365 Play online games phenomena,The accuracy of the research cannot be guaranteed,Even effective。

The second is social complexity caused by behavioral heterogeneity。The expression of initiative is the essential characteristic of human beings,Social phenomena inevitably involve human behavioral characteristics and their consequences,Quantitative characterization of behavior is a necessary point in bet365 Play online games。Human behavior is usually a property of oneself、A complex mapping of the comprehensive interweaving of economic environment and historical factors,Different individuals have different behavioral patterns,Even the same individual under control conditions,There is also great uncertainty in its behavior pattern。Traditional research model that ignores behavioral changes or singles behavioral characteristics,It is difficult to describe the decision-making mechanisms and decision-making results of different groups to cope with shocks and adapt to the environment。

The third is bet365 Play online games complexity caused by interactive networks。Marxist view,People are the sum of bet365 Play online games relationships。Micro individuals continuously interact with attributes or behaviors in the bet365 Play online games relationship network,The accumulation of micro attributes and behaviors forms macro bet365 Play online games phenomena,Changes in macro-bet365 Play online games phenomena in turn affect the behavior trends and attributes of micro-individuals。bet365 Play online games system is built on the micro level、Based on the macro consistency framework,Traditional research often ignores the interactive feedback of micro-individuals in bet365 Play online games groups,It may be possible to separate the macro subjects and micro individuals in bet365 Play online games phenomena,Making it difficult to adapt to the systematic quantification needs of bet365 Play online games sciences。

The fourth is bet365 Play online games complexity caused by dynamic adaptation。Since the birth of human society,It is in the process of continuous evolution。In fact,As an intelligent subject,The behavioral response of human beings to modify the environment and adapt to the environment,Ultimately, bet365 Play online games groups have adaptive characteristics of behavior and decision-making,And thus form the continuous evolution of the overall state of society。The so-called bet365 Play online games equilibrium state,is relative,Is easily destroyed or even unreachable。bet365 Play online games research should try to adopt research methods based on dynamics and evolution,Especially the uncertain exogenous impact in the bet365 Play online games environment,Strengthens the necessity of adaptive research。

The complexity of bet365 Play online games objects means that the system is unsolvable or difficult to solve,And its adaptability means the real-time changes and dynamic evolution of the system。Or,There is almost no deterministic mapping relationship between human social phenomena、Computable functional form、Clear the unchanging influencing factors,Therefore there is no definite closed solution。Considering the lack of unbiased and valid data,The existing paradigm of bet365 Play online games has great cognitive limitations,This cognitive limitation reflects certain limitations in the methodology behind it。The existing paradigm of contemporary bet365 Play online games is gradually formed by borrowing and transplanting modern natural science research methods and paradigms,Reductionism is the mainstay at the methodological level,Also has elements of holism。However,As a methodology for scientific research,Whether it is reductionism or holism,There are serious obstacles in dealing with the uncertainty and evolution of complex giant systems,Based on the unique complexity of human social activities,Existing research methods have serious flaws even in precise quantification and microstructure analysis。

  Coping with the complexity of human society using comprehensive bet365 Play online games integration methodology

In order to more accurately and effectively grasp the complex adaptive characteristics of human social activities,Truly build a bridge for the integration of social sciences and natural sciences,It is necessary to conduct academic discussions on the issue of fundamental reconstruction of bet365 Play online games methodology。The method system that organically introduces System Approach,It may be an important way for bet365 Play online games to effectively grasp the complex adaptive characteristics of human social activities。so far,There are still few explorations in this area in the academic community,The "Comprehensive Integrated Research Methodology" advocated by Mr. Qian Xuesen is the most fruitful ideological theory in this field。Late 1970s,Qian Xuesen pointed out clearly,“The system theory we advocate,Neither holism,Not reductionism,It is the dialectical unity of holism and reductionism”。This system theory thought has gradually developed into Qian Xuesen’s comprehensive system integration thought。

Mr. Qian Xuesen advocates using the expert system、Information, knowledge system and computer system are organically combined,Constitute a highly intelligent human-machine combination and integration system,Putting people’s thinking and the results of thinking,Human experience、Knowledge、Wisdom and various intelligence、Integrate data and information,Enhance multi-faceted qualitative understanding and necessary quantitative understanding、organically combined。1980s to 1990s,Emma Ben、Dai Ruwei、Yu Jingyuan、Scholars represented by Gu Jifa and others,Being the first to carry out exploratory research on comprehensive integration。However,The above research was limited by the model technology and data conditions at the time,No substantial progress has been made。2008,The Chinese Academy of bet365 Play online games Sciences has once again launched comprehensive and integrated research on bet365 Play online games sciences,Becomes the latest large-scale systematic academic exploration work in this field in China。The study proposes,Using massive data from the Internet and based on distributed computing system,Conduct large-scale computer micro-simulation experiments on bet365 Play online games science issues,Hope to use data and computing technology to solve complex adaptive problems in bet365 Play online games sciences。However,The above ideas were advanced at the time,It didn’t even resonate with the natural science community,It was not until the rise of the concept of big data in 2012 that it gradually attracted widespread attention in the domestic industry。

  The development of information technology brings about a revolution in bet365 Play online games

A new round of scientific and technological revolution supported by big data,Provided system scan for bet365 Play online games、Dynamic tracking、The possibility of technological breakthroughs such as causal mining and total approximation,And may lead to a systematic paradigm of bet365 Play online games、Fundamental changes;The direction of change may be more based on social theory and social reality issues,Proactively mine multi-data base,Build a network of connections among social subjects;More inclined to make full use of the comprehensive integration model of human-machine integration,Tracing back to the origin and logical transmission mechanism of social phenomena,Precisely quantified structural analysis of bet365 Play online games objects、Dynamic prediction and simulation deduction。

In fact,Big data and high-performance computing technology provide efficient information mining and processing methods to solve complex adaptability problems of social systems;will play an important role in many aspects of social governance。However,The current integration of bet365 Play online games and emerging technologies is just a formality,The former’s disciplinary system does not fully support and accept the latter,The latter also did not open up any room for revolutionary progress for the former。Comprehensive and integrated research has become an effective way to upgrade bet365 Play online games disciplines in the big data era,It has also become a concrete embodiment of the new development concept in the new era in the field of bet365 Play online games。

From the perspective of social development needs in the new era,Using the theoretical framework of comprehensive integration,Cannot be limited to the summation of existing theories、The collection of massive data and the superposition of multiple technologies,We should emphasize its systematic and organic essential characteristics。To promote the integration of social sciences, emerging technological means, and national governance modernization goals,Comprehensive integration research must make major theoretical innovations and refine structured goals。In the new era,Comprehensive and integrated research in Chinese social sciences should focus on completing the following four major construction goals: First,Establishing a social science engineering research mechanism and system;Second,Building a new paradigm of data-driven bet365 Play online games;Third,Develop a micro-based social science simulation model system;Fourth,Building a bet365 Play online games platform from human-machine integration to intelligence。

Comprehensive integration research in the new era should follow Mr. Qian Xuesen’s original design concept,Led by expert wisdom,Establishing a human-machine integration research model。Among them,Computer focus on data collection、Processing and Information Mining,And provide a simulation environment and discussion platform for expert decision-making;Experts are based on their knowledge system and logical system,Identify platform information,Control the platform environment,Thus achieving scientific decision-making。Meanwhile,Social scientific research methods should not lag behind natural science for a long time,The comprehensive integration model should take the lead in moving towards intelligent bet365 Play online games。First,Based on sorting out expert decision-making experience with the help of big data analysis technology,Building adaptive inductive and deductive algorithms,Simulate and analyze the logic of expert decision-making。Secondly,Form an artificial intelligence decision-making mechanism that gradually replaces expert wisdom,Open the academic “black box” of quantitative analysis and prediction in social sciences。Finally,For decision makers,Provide social system simulation sandbox,Enables decision makers to conduct comparative analysis and dynamic deduction of governance plans on a simulation platform that continuously approximates the real environment,Achieve “multi-dimensional ultra-precise evaluation of major practical issues in social and economic development”。

  (This article is part of the National bet365 Play online games Science Fund Key Project “Research on the Design and Construction of Comprehensive Integrated Simulation Experiment Platform” (18AJL006)、National bet365 Play online games Science Fund Key Project “Research on the Impact of Digital Economy on China’s Economic Development” (18AZD006) Phased Results)

(Author’s unit: Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of bet365 Play online games Sciences)

Editor: Zhang Jing
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