Governments at all levels are within the scope of the resources they have，Formulate forward -looking economic growth goals，and take a package of policy combinations to strive to ensure the complete or even excess of economic growth goals，is the management of economic growth target。Visible，Economic growth goals are not just a simple predictive value，Behind it also implies a series of resource allocation behaviors adopted by governments at all levels to achieve the established economic growth goals。As a universal macroeconomic management phenomenon，Economic growth target management is widely existed globally，It has a long history in our country，And has been in continuous evolution, reform and improvement。

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At the beginning of the founding of New China，my country will start trying to carry out economic growth target management，But in the late 1950s, especially in the 1960s, gradually stopped。Since the reform and opening up，my country's re -activation of economic growth target management，and have been in use so far。Along with the advancement of my country's economic system transition，Economic growth target management model is also evolving。Since the reform and opening up，my country's economic growth target management model roughly undergone the following three stages。

The first stage is the period of the planned economic growth target (1978-1994): The plan of the plan is strong，Economic growth targets mostly adopt the "plan growth x%" mode。and，The connotation of the economic growth goals during this period is not uniform，The economic growth goals of 1981 and 1982 are targeted at the total output value of industrial and agricultural，bet365 Play online games The economic growth target management object of 1994 is the total domestic product，and the rest of the year is the total national product。The second stage is the period of regulating economic growth (1995-1998): During this period, my country changed from the traditional planned economic system to the socialist market economy system，economic growth goals have also become "regulatory targets as x%" mode，The unified expression of economic growth goals is "economic growth rate"。The third stage is the period of expected economic growth targets (1999 to present): During this period, economic growth goals are usually a mode of "expected goal of about X%"，and the connotation of economic growth target management is uniformly dominated by domestic product。

Economic growth target setting tends to be reasonable

By sorting out the central government in recent years、The value of the economic growth goals in various provinces and local government work reports，I found that there are the following distinctive features。First，Economic growth targets exist in the phenomenon of "layer plus"，The lower the government level，The higher the target value of its economic growth target it formulated。Statistics discovery，The economic growth goals formulated by all provinces are generally higher than the economic growth goals formulated by the central government that year，Economic growth goals formulated by various cities in various places are generally higher than the economic growth goals set by the province that year。Next，Economic growth goals are highly linearly related to actual growth rate。Take the data at the presence of a prefecture -level city as an example，The correlation coefficient of economic growth goals and actual growth rate is 0.6472，There is obvious positive correlation。again，Governments at all levels can complete the pre -set economic growth goals most of the time，But there are exceptions，and the higher the government level，The higher the completion of the economic growth bet365 Play online games goals。Since the new century，Except 2014 and 2015，The rest of the year, the central government has completed the established economic growth goals，and most years are over -completed。At the local government level，76.73%of the provinces have completed economic growth goals，and only 59.06%of prefecture -level cities completed the established growth goals annually。Last，Since entering the new normal，The economic growth goals formulated by governments at all levels are all lowered，and continue to approach the actual growth rate of each year，The setting of the target of economic growth has gradually become consistent with the practice of regional economic growth。

But，Economic growth target management is while promoting the "miracle" of my country's economic growth，It is also inevitable that real estate has caused some problems，It is mainly manifested in the following aspects。First，Economic data distortion。In recent years，The authenticity of economic statistics has been questioned，Local GDP Statistics and the National total output value "Data Fighting" phenomenon occurred。Discovery of academic research，The phenomenon of "layers of layers" of economic growth target management is an important cause of economic data failure。During the GDP Championship process，Economic growth targets are often amplified step by step，The lower the level of the government to complete the economic growth goals, the greater the more difficulty of the economic growth。The economic growth goal set at the beginning of the year is difficult to complete，There may be motivation to interfere with economic data statistics，This leads to economic data distortion。

2，Resource allocation failure。For a long time，Local governments use economic growth goals as a command stick，All kinds of supporting policies are introduced around the annual economic growth goals of the year at the beginning of the year，And many local government work is based on the appropriate bet365 Play online games growth rate。So，Economic growth target management system may lead to many short -sighted behaviors due to hard work to complete the established growth goals，Various resources can be used to make every effort，Choose and develop those short -level fast industries that are conducive to the achievement of growth targets，This leads to environmental pollution、Industrial structure is similar、Configuration of resource allocation such as overcapacity，Strategic goals that realize the strategic goal of achieving high -quality economic and social development。

third，Macro regulation failure。The formulation of economic growth goals not only takes into account the actual economic operation of the previous year and the resource endowment of the region，and more or less contains some will and tendencies of local government officials at all levels，There is a deviation of different degrees of existence from objective actual existence。So，Various macro -control policies set up based on economic growth goals，It may be failed due to the deviation of the target of economic growth。If some industrial policies are not effective，One possible reason is that local governments prefer to support and develop industries that are conducive to the completion of economic growth targets，Government judgment and intervention instead of market competition，This leads to a failure of industrial policy。

　New trend of reform of economic growth target management

The challenge facing the current economic development is unprecedented，Must be fully estimated to difficulty、Risk and uncertainty。my country's economic growth goals management has made some new changes，New trends of its model reform from it。

First, change from point target to interval targets，Make the growth target more flexible。Point growth target is a certain value，Almost no elasticity，The interval target is more elastic。The lower limit can give people a stable expectation，Ensure the bottom line of economic development; the upper limit indicates that the bet365 Play online games government is not blindly pursuing higher economic growth，Instead of focusing on the quality of development，is a manifestation of the strategic choice of "ability but not"。In 2016，and adopt it again in 2019。At the same time，Since 2016，Continuous provinces and prefecture -level cities have also adopted interval growth targets。

Second, change from absolute target to relative targets，To better cope with various uncertainty。Because the global economic and trade situation is facing many uncertainty，If the economic growth goals are completely canceled，Governments at all levels may be difficult to adapt to this change。Some scholars have proposed the concept of "relative growth rate"，No absolute growth target，Change to a new model of relatively economic growth target，For example, "2 percentage points higher than the world average growth rate"。Actually，Many provinces and prefecture -level cities in my country have adopted this relatively economic growth target mode。For example，Henan Province in 2011 proposed that the growth rate of GDP was "1 to 2 percentage points higher than the national average"; Anshan City proposed that the regional GDP growth in 2019 "Keep synchronization with the province"，This is a positive exploration of the relatively growth target mode。

Third, change from explicit goals to hidden targets，Continuously improving the tolerance of economic growth。Although the Central Government Work Report this year does not propose a clear explicit goal，But the target of the deficit rate and the people's livelihood goals of "Six Stability and Six Insurance" all implies based on a more inclusive economic growth.。Some scholars based on 3.6%deficit rate target，The goal of launching this year's nominal GDP growth rate is about 5.4%，After the price is lowered，Therefore, the actual GDP growth of the government's expected GDP is about 3.4%。At the same time，According to bet365 live casino games the employment target of more than 9 million people in the newly added employment in the town，Combining Olympic Affirmation Law can roughly calculate the economic expected growth rate of 9 million new employment in employment is about 3.6%。This can be regarded as the benchmark prediction of economic growth this year，At the same time, it can also be considered a new attempt for the goal of hidden economic growth。

Fourth, change from hard constraints to soft constraint targets，Surface space for the high -quality development of the economy。Collection and sorting out statements related to the goal of economic growth in the work report at all levels，The characteristics of the growth target can be divided into two categories: one is to use "above", "strive", "ensure" hard constraints such as，Another category is to use "left and right", "upper and lower" and other room for soft restraint targets。When using a hard constraint target，Generally corresponding to the government's strong allocation of resources in the jurisdiction，When using a soft constraint target，Government intervention usually weakens。Taking a prefecture -level city sample as an example，Since 2012，The number of prefecture -level cities with soft constraint growth targets has increased significantly (from 15.5%in 2012 to 61.6%in 2019)，The number of prefecture -level cities that use traditional hard constraint growth targets has decreased sharply。Obviously，Soft constraint growth goals can give government departments to improve the quality of economic development to allow more space for ferry。

(This article is the "Ministry of the Ministry of Finance" joint research topic "Fourteen Five -Year Plan" period of "the research on potential economic growth rate in my country" (202002) phased achievement)

(Author Unit: School of Finance and Taxation of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)