Governments at all levels are within the resources they control，Set forward-looking economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals，And adopt a package of policies to ensure the success or even overfulfillment of the economic bet365 bonus code indiana target，That is, economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management。Visible，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana target is not just a simple forecast value，Behind this also implies a series of resource allocation behaviors taken by governments at all levels to achieve established economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals。As a common macroeconomic management phenomenon，Economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management is widespread around the world，It has a long history in our country，And has been in the process of continuous evolution, reform and improvement。

The target management model changes in stages

At the beginning of the founding of New China，Our country has begun to try to implement economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management，But it gradually stopped in the late 1950s, especially in the 1960s。Since the reform and opening up，my country restarts economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management，And it is still used today。With the advancement of my country’s economic system transformation，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management model is also constantly evolving。Since the reform and opening up，my country’s economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management model has roughly gone through the following three stages。

The first stage is the planned economic bet365 bonus code indiana target period (1978-1994): this period has a strong planning color，Economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets mostly adopt the "planned bet365 bonus code indiana X%" model。and，The connotation of economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets during this period is not unified，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets in 1981 and 1982 were aimed at the total industrial and agricultural output value，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management object in 1994 is gross domestic product，The rest of the years are GNP。The second stage is the period of regulating economic bet365 bonus code indiana (1995-1998): during this period, our country transformed from the traditional planned economic system to the socialist market economic system，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana target has also changed to the mode of "the control target is set at X%"，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana goal is uniformly expressed as "economic bet365 bonus code indiana rate"。The third stage is the expected economic bet365 bonus code indiana target period (1999 to the present): the economic bet365 bonus code indiana target during this period is usually the model of "the expected target is about X%"，And the connotation of economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management is unified as gross domestic product。

Economic bet365 bonus code indiana target setting tends to be reasonable

By sorting out the central government’s recent years、The numerical values ​​and expressions of economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets in the work reports of various provinces and local governments，The following distinctive features were found。First，There is a phenomenon of "layers of overweighting" in economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets，That is, the lower the level of government，The higher the economic bet365 bonus code indiana target value it sets。Statistical findings，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets set by each province are generally higher than the economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets set by the central government for that year，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets set by prefecture-level cities are generally higher than the economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets set by the provinces that year。Secondly，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana target is highly linearly related to the actual bet365 bonus code indiana rate。Take prefecture-level city level data as an example，The correlation coefficient between the economic bet365 bonus code indiana target and the actual bet365 bonus code indiana rate is 0.6472，That is, there is an obvious positive correlation。Again，Governments at all levels can most of the time achieve pre-set economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals，But there are exceptions，And the higher the level of government，The higher the degree of achievement of economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals。Since the new century，Except 2014 and 2015，The central government has achieved its set economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets in the remaining years，And most years it is overfulfilled。At the local government level，Total 76.73% of provinces achieved economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets，And only 59.06% of prefecture-level cities achieve their established bet365 bonus code indiana targets every year。Finally，Since entering the new normal，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets set by governments at all levels are being lowered in a timely manner，And is constantly approaching the actual bet365 bonus code indiana rate of each year，marks that the setting of economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals is gradually becoming consistent with regional economic bet365 bonus code indiana practices。

However，Economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management is boosting the “miracle” of my country’s economic bet365 bonus code indiana，Some problems inevitably arise，Mainly manifested in the following aspects。First，Economic data distortion。In recent years，The authenticity of economic statistics has always been questioned，The phenomenon of "data fighting" between the total local GDP statistics and the national total output value occurs from time to time。Academic research findings，The phenomenon of “layers of overweighting” in economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management is an important reason for the distortion of economic data。During the GDP Championship，Economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals are often enlarged step by step，The lower the level of government, the more difficult it is to achieve economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals。When the economic bet365 bonus code indiana target set at the beginning of the year is difficult to achieve，There may be motives to interfere with economic statistics，Thus leading to distortion of economic data。

Second，Resource configuration failure。Long time，Local governments all use economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals as their baton，Introducing various supporting policies throughout the year around the economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals set at the beginning of the year，And a lot of local government work is based on an appropriate bet365 bonus code indiana rate。So，The economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management system may lead to many short-sighted behaviors by local government officials as they strive to achieve established bet365 bonus code indiana targets，Use all resources as best you can，Select and develop short-term, fast-paced industries that are conducive to the realization of bet365 bonus code indiana goals，Thus leading to environmental pollution、Similar industrial structures、Problems of resource allocation failure such as overcapacity，Contrary to the strategic goal of achieving high-quality economic and social development。

　Third，Macroeconomic control failure。The formulation of economic bet365 bonus code indiana targets not only takes into account the actual economic performance of the previous year and the resource endowment of the region，And more or less, it also includes certain wills and tendencies of local government officials at all levels，Therefore, there are varying degrees of deviation from the objective reality。So，Various macro-control policies based on economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals，May fail due to deviation from economic bet365 bonus code indiana target。If some industrial policies are not effective，One possible reason is that local governments prefer to support and develop industries that are conducive to the achievement of economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals，Replacing market competition with government judgment and intervention，Thus leading to industrial policy failure。

　New trends in economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management reform

The current challenges facing economic development are unprecedented，Difficulties must be fully estimated、Risk and Uncertainty。There have been some new changes in my country’s economic bet365 bonus code indiana target management，You can get a glimpse of the new trend of its model reform。

The first is the transformation from point targets to interval targets，Make bet365 bonus code indiana targets more flexible。Point bet365 bonus code indiana target is a certain value，Almost no elasticity，The range target is more flexible。The lower limit can give people a stable expectation，Ensuring the bottom line of economic development；The upper limit shows that the government is not blindly pursuing higher economic bet365 bonus code indiana，But focus on the quality of development，It is a manifestation of the strategic choice of "being able but not doing it"。In 2016, the central government adopted a range-based economic bet365 bonus code indiana target for the first time，And adopted again in 2019。Meanwhile，Since 2016，Provinces and prefecture-level cities have also adopted interval bet365 bonus code indiana targets。

The second is to change from absolute goals to relative goals，To better cope with various uncertainties。As the global economic and trade situation faces many uncertainties，If the economic bet365 bonus code indiana target is completely canceled，Governments at all levels may have difficulty adapting to this change。Some scholars have proposed the concept of "relative bet365 bonus code indiana rate"，That is, do not set an absolute bet365 bonus code indiana target，Changed to a new model of relative economic bet365 bonus code indiana target，For example, “2 percentage points higher than the world average bet365 bonus code indiana rate”。Actually，Many provinces and prefecture-level cities in my country have adopted this relative economic bet365 bonus code indiana target model。For example，Henan Province proposed in 2011 that the GDP bet365 bonus code indiana rate be “1 to 2 percentage points higher than the national average”；Anshan City proposed in 2019 that regional GDP bet365 bonus code indiana “keep pace with that of the province”，This is all an active exploration of the relative bet365 bonus code indiana target model。

The third is to change from explicit goals to implicit goals，Continuously improve the inclusiveness of economic bet365 bonus code indiana。Although this year’s central government work report did not put forward clear explicit goals，However, the deficit ratio target and the people’s livelihood goal of “six stability and six guarantees” both imply that a more inclusive economic bet365 bonus code indiana must be the basis。There are scholars’ evidence 3.6% deficit rate target，The nominal GDP bet365 bonus code indiana target for this year is about 5.4%，After price deflation，Thus, the government’s expected real GDP bet365 bonus code indiana rate is 3.About 4%。At the same time，Based on the employment target of more than 9 million new urban jobs，Combined with Okun’s law, it can be roughly calculated that the expected economic bet365 bonus code indiana rate corresponding to 9 million new jobs is about 3.6%。This can be regarded as a baseline forecast of economic bet365 bonus code indiana this year，It can also be considered as a new attempt at hidden economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals。

The fourth is to change from hard constraint goals to soft constraint goals，Give space for high-quality economic development。Collect and sort out the statements related to the economic bet365 bonus code indiana goals of the year in the work reports of governments at all levels and find out，The constraints on bet365 bonus code indiana goals can be divided into two categories: one is the use of hard constraints such as "above", "strive for", and "ensure"，The other type uses soft constraint targets such as "left, right" and "up and down" that leave room for leeway。When using hard constraint targets，Usually corresponds to the government’s strong allocation of resources in the jurisdiction，When using soft constraint targets，The level of government intervention usually decreases。Take a sample of prefecture-level cities as an example，Since 2012，The number of prefecture-level cities adopting soft-constrained bet365 bonus code indiana targets has increased significantly (from 15 in 2012.5% increased to 61 in 2019.6%），The number of prefecture-level cities that adopt traditional hard-constraint bet365 bonus code indiana targets has dropped sharply。Obviously，Soft constraint bet365 bonus code indiana targets can give more space to government departments to focus on improving the quality of economic development。

(This article is a phased result of the "Research on my country's Potential Economic bet365 bonus code indiana Rate during the '14th Five-Year Plan' Period" (202002), a joint research project of the Ministry of Finance "Ministry and Province Co-construction")

(Author’s unit: School of Finance and Taxation, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)