Global value chain adjustment movement and countermeasures
January 20, 2021 09:21 Source: "China Social Sciences" January 20, 2021 Total 2094 Author: Peng Zhiwei

Since the reform and opening up,my country will introduce foreign investment with the abundant labor force in China,Embeds into the global division of labor through development and processing trade,Gradually develop into the core of the Asian value chain,Global trade share rose from about 2%in the 1990s to more than 10%。

In this process,China has also shown several structural changes in the way to participate in the global value chain (GVC) division of labor: First, from 1999,The proportion of processing trade began to decline,The proportion of general trade rises。Second, the contribution of domestic enterprises, especially private enterprises, has continued to rise。Third is after 2012,Domestic intermediate products replace some imported intermediate investment,The proportion of intermediate products in the middle product decreases the proportion of total imports。Fourth is since 1995,The real income obtained by foreign countries through the global value chain division of labor accounts for the domestic domestic output.、The inverted V -type change process of rising first and then down,China's income share from abroad continues to increase。Enter the 21st century,The development of the global value chain has entered a new stage,This article aims to systematically summarize the trend and movement of global value chain,Chinese countermeasures that should be adjusted to the global value chain。

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Starting from the 1990s,Global Value Chain becomes a new normal for economic globalization and international division of labor,The "No Borders Production" system is gradually formed,The proportion of trade in the middle product is increasing,Promoting the high -speed growth of global trade。China is formed worldwide、Germany、Asia centered on the United States、Europe、The value bet365 best casino games chain network of the three major regions in North America。After the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008,Economic globalization entering a deep adjustment period,The evolution of the global value chain presents the following new features。

First,multinational division of labor is more concentrated to specific regional production networks,As a result, the scale of cross -border flow and cross -border direct investment in intermediate products。Starting in 2012,Global Trade has ended 2 times the era of high growth in GDP growth in 20 years,The growth rate of goods trade decreases faster than service trade。2016-2018,Global FDI total volume decreased for 3 consecutive years,2019 Global FDI picking up,But it is still lower than the average level of the past ten years。Second,International Economic and Trade Rules System Entering Reconstruction Period。On the one hand,In the background of economic recession,Protectiveism of various forms,A impact on the existing international economic and trade rules system,multinational trade investment is facing large uncertainty。On the other hand,Under the condition of long -term blocking of multilateral trade negotiations,Many countries accelerate the negotiation of bilateral or regional free trade agreements,Try to strive for favorable external environments with its own comparative advantages。Most of these free trade agreements have "high standards" features,The theme of negotiating shifts from the "first generation" open policy with market access as the core to the "second generation" open policy with regulatory integration,Treating a new round of global economic and trade rules games。third,Developed countries have taken measures to attract the return of manufacturing,Multi -country governments have strengthened the intervention of industrial transfer。At present, the fourth industrial transfer since the 1950s is currently under the 1950s,Southeast Asia becomes the main destination of the new bet365 Play online games round of industrial transfer。

  Grasp the opportunity of global value chain adjustment

The author’s theoretical deduction results indicate,The real income from a country through the international division of labor depends on the number of intermediate products provided by the country in the number of intermediate products provided by the country and the degree of embedding in the area production network,The latter depends on the technical complexity of the middle product、The number of intermediate varieties and the front of the production network in the area of ​​use、After the degree of association。The corresponding numerical simulation results display,Due to the gradual increase in the cost of production factors,After 2004,The number of intermediate products produced in China in domestic and foreign production networks tend to decrease,China's income growth at home and abroad is mainly due to the increasing embeddedness of intermediate products in the production network。This is the result of the increasingly complete supply chain network in China and the gradual improvement of the complexity of the middle product technology。This echo the research conclusion of other scholars,That is, in recent years, China's domestic intermediate product production network has become increasingly mature,Promoting the alternative of domestic inputs to import input,The overall technology gap between China and developed countries has become reduced。

The above discovery can explain to a certain extent after the 2008 economic crisis broke out,Adjustment of the global value chain presents the reasons for the characteristics above。First,China's domestic supply chain network tends to mature to promote domestic intermediate products to form an alternative to import input products,Directly contributed to the global production network related to China to gather to Asia and even China,Leading the intermediate product cross -border trade reduction。Second,After the crisis, developed countries have taken measures to attract the return of manufacturing,Bet365 lotto review Trade and investment protectionism look up。In the process of reconstruction of international economic and trade rules after the crisis, developed countries are more eager to shape the rules system that meets its economic comparative advantages。The epidemic of the new crown pneumonia allows many countries to further realize that under major non -expected impact,Economy highly relies on the risk that may cause the global value chain division of labor。This prompting some countries to increase the return of the manufacturing industry or promote the policy intervention of investment companies in the global layout,Make the operation of normal economic and trade activities and global value chains facing unprecedented uncertainty interference。

Enter 2021,The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the global economy is still continuing,China and the United States still have the foundation and demand of mutual cooperation in the economic and trade fields,It is mainly manifested in the following aspects。First,Experience research and research results show,Since 2018, the United States has raised tariffs on China -US products,Since 2018, the United States has raised tariffs on China -US products,Reduced American consumer benefits。Second,For a long period of time and future for a long time,Many products necessary for the economic and society to maintain normal operation in the United States cannot find a stable and reliable import source outside China。Under the background of the high development of the global production division of labor,No country can accurately block trade with specific countries through tariffs and other means,It is impossible to avoid hurting the country。third,China's domestic consumer market size is close to the United States,and per capita GDP has exceeded $ 10,000。The large -scale and great potential Chinese market means that any company with a global vision will not give up the Chinese market easily。

Since recently,Policies and measures implemented by some developed countries may objectively promote the development trend of some companies to turn production locations to bet365 best casino games Southeast Asia and other places。But you need to pay attention to two points: First,This phenomenon entered a new stage of development in China、Global value chain status improvement and comparative advantages have changed,to a large extent belongs to the normal adjustment of corporate multinational production layout,It has its own inevitable。Second,These companies move some production links to other countries and regions,It does not mean that the relevant industrial chain is removed。The completeness of the domestic supply chain in China and the scale economic effect brought by it are far from comparison of other countries。

  Actively cope with the global value chain reconstruction impact

Although economic globalization will continue to advance during adjustment,But the structural transformation in China、In the context of alternating the new and old growth kinetic energy,We must not ignore the sustainability of the new crown pneumonia and the deterioration of the external economic and trade environment.。For this,China should take the initiative to take necessary measures to deal with。

First,To recognize China's real position in the global value chain。Research Discovery,Although the overall technology gap between China and developed countries has shown a narrow trend,But the absolute gap between the two is still obvious。At present, the increase in the status of China's global value chain division,Generally, it is relative to the improvement of other countries and regions other than the United States,instead of directly challenging the leading position of the United States,China's moving from the low end of the global value chain to the mid -to -high end will be a long -term gradual process。In this process,China Tongye -developed countries in core technology research and development、Competition in brand promotion will gradually intensify。

2,Improve technical level and improve the domestic supply chain network。In the case of gradually intensifying technology competition in developed countries,China should bet365 live casino games strengthen basic scientific research and human capital accumulation,Promote independent technological innovation,At the same time, optimize the innovation environment through reform,Efforts to enhance my country's overall technical competitiveness。It is necessary to conform to the real background of the global value chain to gather towards a specific area,On the basis of the implementation of tax reduction measures,Take a series of measures to reduce the burden on the enterprise,Help the company through difficulties,Consolidate China's central node status in the Asian value chain。Based on the background of a new round of technological revolution, the digital transformation trend of the economy of various countries,Actively participate in the global value chain reconstruction。Looking at it for a long time,We must adhere to the reform of supply -side reform and expand opening,Improve the business environment of the enterprise,Enhance my country's enterprises' adaptation to high standard international economic and trade rules,Attract high -level production factors to gather to China,To continue to improve the domestic supply chain network、Promoting industrial upgrading and creating good institutional conditions。

Third,Speed ​​up the formation of large domestic cycles as the main body、New development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles。Flowing domestic economic cycle,The key lies in the continuous expansion of the domestic market,The premise of achieving this is the continuous improvement of residents' disposable income level。The current population with a monthly income of my country is still 600 million,The level of economic development and development capabilities in different regions is obvious。This requires my country to try to optimize the income distribution pattern,On the one hand, it is necessary to gradually reduce the income gap of different groups,On the other hand, increase the total proportion of residents' income accounted Bet365 app download for GDP。Another,Can't ignore the significance and promotion of economic and international cycles in domestic cycle。

  (This article is the National Social Science Fund general project "my country Implementation of FTA Strategy Research" (15bjy005) phase results)

(Author Unit: School of Economics, Nankai University)

Editor in charge: Chen Jing
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