Realize the coexistence and prosperity of economic and financial
May 19, 2021 08:59 Source: "China Social Sciences", May 19, 2021, Issue 2168, Issue 2168, 2021

Construction with a large domestic cycle as the main body、New development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles,Realize economic development to high -quality development,It is the main direction of my country's economic transformation during the "14th Five -Year Plan" period and even longer.。Whether it is cultivating domestic demand strategic base points、Inside the promotion, it still achieves innovation drivers,Fundamentally inseparable from the effective support of finance in the real economy,The logo is to realize the symbiosis and prosperity of economic and financial。The important basis for promoting the virtuous cycle of economic and financial is the compatibility of improving macro -control and micro -motivation,Stimulate the compatibility relationship between policy orientation and micro -subjective behavior,further release the potential space of the financial service real economy。

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With the continuous slowdown of my country's economic growth since 2012,Banking system、Finance、Outside -scale business business scale rapid expansion,The scale of the shadow banking system continues to swell,The speculative attributes of the real estate market are increasingly prominent,Economic breakdown such as empty rotation and asset price bubble accumulation is endless。The blood supply effect of finance on the real economy is gradually micro,To a certain extent, it becomes the recovery and development of the real economy。For this,"Planning of the Fourteenth Five -Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of the Variety Target of 2035",Institutions and mechanisms to build financial effects to effectively support the real economy。How to improve the support effect of finance for the real economy、Driving the financial system liquidity accurately and effectively flowing to the real economy,Bet365 app download To achieve the coexistence and prosperity of economic and financial,It has become the top priority of macroeconomic regulation。

A series of important adjustments and innovations of my country's monetary policy in recent years,You can clearly see,In order to effectively solve the obstruction problem existing in the long -term monetary policy transmission mechanism,Monetary policy is increasingly focused on targeted downgrade、Re -loan、The use of structural tools such as medium -term borrowing convenience。The National Two Associations of 2020 clearly proposed the "Currency Policy Tools of Innovation to the real economy,Be sure to promote the convenience of the enterprise to obtain a loan,Promoting interest rates continues to decline "; the China Banking Regulatory Commission also clarified the purpose of promoting financial institutions to reasonable interest in the real economy。At the same time,"The People's Republic of China of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Revised Draft Consultation)" clearly clearly writes "Promoting the Real Economy of Financial Services" into legislative purposes,It aims to emphasize the real economy of financial services、Strengthen financial macro regulation。This series of adjustments reflects that my country's current macro policy transmission chain is not efficient、The dilemma of the real economy urgently needs to be nurtured by the financial industry,The effectiveness of the real economy of financial services needs to be improved urgently。

Macro regulation since the financial crisis,Although emphasizing increased the strength of the inverse cycle、Guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro private enterprises,But to a certain extent ignores effective incentives for the intermediate link of the bank,That is, there is a gap between the compatibility of macro policy orientation and micro -motivation,The important manifestation is the incompatibility between macro policy regulation and micro -subject motivation。On the one hand,Macro regulation has adverse periodicity,Usually tightening policy in the economic Bet365 app download upward period,Moderate relaxation policy in the economic downturn,Smooth the fluctuation of the economic cycle by "apologizing by Fengfeng",Therefore, the stable operation of the macroeconomic economy。On the other hand,Micro -subjects such as enterprises、Bank、The behavior of residents and other residents has natural periodicity,When the economy is good, I will borrow more loans、Multi -investment,When the economy slows down, it will obviously conservative,As a result, it is easy to lead to the ups and downs of economic fluctuations。

From the perspective of specific practical experience,If the cyclical strength of macro regulation is too low,It is difficult to obviously smooth the fluctuation range of the economic cycle; the counter -cycle regulation is too high,It is possible to have a severe conflict with the incentive mechanism of the micro -subject,As a result, the macro policy cannot be well implemented at the micro level,It is difficult to successfully achieve the intention of adverse cycle regulation。From 2012 to the present,The average interest rate of the average interest rate of the general loan of the financial institutions in our country is generally a steady decline in a steady decline,The control measures to reduce the cost of financing the real economy have exerted continuous effects,but not stable。For example, in 2017、2018,Loan interest rates have reversed,Especially 2018,The liquidity in the interbank market is relatively abundant,When the inter -bank interbank borrowing interest rate and bond pledge repurchase interest rate are basically declined,The improvement of social financing is relatively limited。"Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions" introduced that the contraction of off -balance sheet business is of course an obvious cause,But the macro -control intention has not been effectively implemented at the micro level of the bank.。

Policies for curbing overheating in the real estate market many times in the past and the policy of guiding bank credit to manufacturing,It has important significance Bet365 app download for improving the decline of the economy,From 2013。From 2013,The growth rate of manufacturing loans is obviously behind the real estate industry。From the perspective of the characteristics of the industry,2014-2018 The average sales profit margin of the manufacturing industry is 5.59%,and the real estate industry in the same period is as high as 14.08%; the average non -performing loan rate of commercial banks from 2010-2017 reached 2.58%,and the real estate industry is only 1.22%,Personal housing mortgage loan is only 0.41%。Therefore,Banks and other financial structures are motivated to be real estate instead of manufacturing financing,Because the latter's risk of breach of contract is relatively high,and the former former can get a stable income。Although in the context of the continuous guidance of macro -regulation and reducing the cost of the real economy financing,The income of the investment and financial sector and the cost -effectiveness of the risk is still far more than the real economic department such as manufacturing。In the past two years, more emphasized funds to reach the real economy,Real estate -related policy regulation and control continues to increase,strongly curbing the economic imbalance of the economy。Specific performance in,As of the end of 2020,Among the new and long -term loans,Manufacturing industry accounts for 13.7%,More than 9.6%of the real estate。To maintain micro -vitality,While the regulation of monetary policy is increasingly normalized,It should also strengthen the compatibility mechanism of macro -control and micro -motivation,Continue and effectively guide finance to better serve the real economy。

  Balance macro -control and micro -motivation

Adverse period adjustment is the essence of monetary policy,means that the economy is too hot、Remove the economic downward。Not very optimistic in the current international situation、In the context of the pressure of domestic economy upgrades,,Monetary policy is the role of the real economy recovery and development play a booster function。But considering the effectiveness of policy bet365 live casino games transmission,In the future, we must pay more attention to the compatible match between macro -control and micro -motivation,Promoting the virtuous cycle of economic and financial。For this,Makes the following suggestions。

First,Accelerate the compatibility of improving macro -control and micro -motivation,Prevent Shadow Bank。Looking at the financial structure,The shadow banking system has become an important part of my country's regular banking system,Under the implementation of a series of strict policies such as deleveraging and new rules of asset management,The scale of the shadow bank in our country has basically returned to a reasonable level。The outline of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" plan clearly proposed "We must adhere to the overall national security concept,Implementing financial security strategies ",Preventing shadow banking risk is a key part of rationalizing the relationship between macro policies and micro -motivation compatibility。For this,You need to further increase financial supervision,Especially paying attention to improving the efficiency of direct funds to the real economy。

2,Promote the reasonable benefit of financial institutions to the real economy,Not only must determine the reasonable scale of the profit,It is necessary to form a reasonable for profit mode and channel。If the profit demand and risk control of micro -banks are ignored,Although it plays a temporary stimulus effect on the real economy,But it may hit the enthusiasm of the bank's individual and distort the incentive mechanism。From the long run,It may also affect the base of the macro policy transmission,and induce the problem of reverse selection and moral risk of physical enterprises。Fundamentally promoting the financial institution to reasonably give up the profit from the real economy,It is also necessary,To formulate counter -cyclical adjustment policies, it is necessary to better consider the compatibility of bank agencies。

third,Institutional mechanism that improves financial effectiveness to serve the real economy,Gradually promote the transformation from the passive advancement of the assessment to the bet365 live casino games market。Currently about promoting the real economy of financial services、Promoting the reasonable method of promoting the reasonable for financial institutions still depends on the way of advancing the assessment of government indicators,This is easier to achieve book targets in the short term,But in the long run, unsustainable。For this,To further optimize the market environment and financial infrastructure level,Comprehensively improve the construction of credit system,Vigorously improve the level of fintech technology,Encourage promoting big data in credit acceptance、Application in risk control。By enriching the risk control recognition technology and capabilities of commercial banks to reduce its credit risk doubts and actual placement premiums,and use fintech to open the long -tail market of financial services for commercial banks,Endogly and initiative to support the real economy。

Fourth,Promote the innovation of macro -control policy and improve the incentive mechanism of incentives in the financial industry.。In order to effectively enhance the support effect of financial support for the real economy,On the one hand, you need to continue to innovate monetary policy and macro -prudential policy,Expansion of the policy of policy action while reducing resource mismatch。For example,Structural clauses that further optimize the MPA assessment,Make the credit of various banking institutions in the individual constraints and policy orientation to obtain a better balance。On the other hand,It is necessary to step up to improve the internal fund transfer pricing mechanism、Accounting Calculation System,Forms internal incentive mechanisms that are more compatible with macro -control orientation。In -depth inspiration to serve the real economy of the real economy、New channels for the development of the financial industry to promote industrial development,Provide new broad space for the more than a virtuous cycle of economic and financial high levels。

  (This article is the Ministry of Education's Humanities and Social Science Fund Youth Project "Shadow Bank and China Dual Pillar Regulation Framework Optimization Study" (18yjc790030)、The National Social Science Fund's later fund -funded project "Financial Risk Evolution and 'Stable Financial' Macro Regulation Research" (20FJYB042) phased results)

(Author Unit: Shanghai University of International Economics and Trade from Shanghai University of Foreign Economics and Trade; School of Finance, Nanjing Audit University)

Editor in charge: Zong Yue
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