Since the global financial crisis，Although the main economy central bank has adopted unprecedented unconventional loose monetary policy，But the economic recovery is slow，Policy effect is far witch to expect。2013，Former US Treasury Secretary Smes re -proposed the long -term stagnation of Hanson in 1939 (Security Stagnation) hypothesis，attracted high attention from all parties。The world economy enters "low growth、Low inflation、Low interest rates "new normal" (New Normal)，and caused "New Neutral"、"New Mediocre" and other extensive discussions on the economic situation。But，Since the global epidemic of new crown pneumonia，high inflation unexpectedly，Global growth momentum is more insufficient。IMF has repeatedly lowered global economic growth expectations in 2022，At the same time, the inflation prediction and reiteration of high inflation are expected to last longer。Due to the error and supply impact superposition due to the total demand policy，Global economy is likely to fall into "low growth、High Inflation "long -term stagnation and swelling dilemma。

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After outbreak of the epidemic，Under the joint promotion of the double expansion policy of fiscal currency，U.S. Europe and other major developed economies quickly recover，Fiscal policy has played a greater role in macro -control，This is completely different from the policy response that mainly relying on currency expansion after the global financial crisis。Due to the epidemic caused by the epidemic caused by the overall impact of the economy and society，It is easy for all parties to reach a consensus on the economic stimulus plan。2020，US fiscal budget deficit rate rose rapidly from bet365 Play online games 4.6%in 2019 to 14.9%，The leverage ratio of government departments also climbed from 103.6%in 2019 to 131.5%。Similar，The euro area in 2020、Japan's deficit rate is also 0.64%of the previous year、3.03%rose to 7.21%, respectively、8.95%。It is under the strong financial stimulus，U.S. residents and corporate balance sheets are less impactful，Fiscal subsidies for family and small enterprises have greatly promoted the expansion of consumer demand and rising prices。​​Subsequent，The financial stimulus of various countries has obviously weakened，Consumption demand is getting slower。2021 and 2022，US fiscal budget deficit rates dropped to 12.4%and 5.8%, respectively，At the end of 2021，The leverage rate of government departments also dropped to 122.2%。Similar，Euro Area、Japan's fiscal deficit rate in 2021 also dropped to 5.47%and 7.42%, respectively。At the same time，Interference from political factors，The US fiscal stimulus space is obviously limited。2022 fiscal US fiscal budget expenditure is 6 trillion US dollars，decreased 1.2 trillion US dollars from the fiscal year 2021。With the decline in fiscal stimuli and gradually withdrawing various subsidy policies，plus high prices，As the most important home consumption demand for the US economy, the consumption demand has obviously slowed。Since March 2022，The total growth rate of the total retail and food services in the United States dropped to individual digits，July quarter -regulating growth rate has declined for the first time during the year，August only increased by 0.29%in August。

Based on the global financial crisis response experience and financial stimulus financing，The main central bank's response to the action is decisive，Policy is greater。but but，Out of concerns about long -term stagnation and continuous low interest rates restraint monetary policy space，The major central banks Bet365 app download such as the United States and Europe have conducted extensive review of monetary policy frameworks，Then use more attention to employment、New monetary policy framework such as improving inflation tolerance (such as the Fed's average inflation target system，Symmetrical inflation target of the European Central Bank)。From this，The main central banks represented by the Federal Reserve all intentionally or unintentionally ignored the risk of inflation。In the early 2021 of the inflation that has appeared in the signs，The Fed always believes that inflation is "temporary"，CPI continued to rise in June of that year，The Fed still insists on rising commodity costs caused by high inflation as the impact of the epidemic.。Until the end of 2021, the inflation situation is very severe，The Fed has to start policy steering，Raise interest rates in March and June 2022、shrinkage。But the US -Europe Labor Market has shown a "salary -price" spiral rising trend，Central Bank's policy tightening pace has been far behind inflation rising speed，and the new monetary policy framework tolerate high inflation will inevitably make policies。The experience of "Big Inflation" in the 1970s，The policy position of the Central Bank of the Central Bank to look forward to the future，It can only lead to the problem of time inconsistencies in the policy and increase the price faster。To reshape policy credibility，The central bank can only treat inflation with greater costs，And this is likely to be at the cost of economic recession。

　　Global supply end impact is abnormally exacerbated with stagflation risk

First, the impact of the epidemic and the Russian and Ukraine conflict exacerbate the global supply chain crisis。Event outbreak directly affects multinational cross -border cargo transportation and warehousing custody，Logistics costs represented by sea transportation have risen sharply，It caused a huge impact on bet365 live casino games the global supply chain，Supply and demand imbalances lead to a sharp rise in prices lead to a significant increase。other，Russia is the world's most important commodity exporter，Ukraine is the main exporter of the world's agricultural products，The continuous conflict between the two countries brought a huge impact on the international energy and grain market，and directly affect global energy security，The soaring natural gas prices lead to high input inflation，Almost became the repeat of two oil crisis in the 1970s。

Second, the trend of economic globalization is accelerating。Since the 1980s，The process of economic globalization is obviously accelerated，The majority of emerging economies represented by China integrate into the world market，Various types of production factor resources optimize allocation worldwide，greatly promoted the improvement of productivity，Play an important role in curbing the inflation of developed economies。but but，The distribution of economic globalization income in various countries is not balanced，Equipment distribution unbalanced income distribution and the enlargement of class gaps that lead to the rise of anti -economic globalization。Especially the global financial crisis has further exacerbated class differentiation，The proportion of the total amount of global cargo and service trade accounted for GDP. After reaching a high point of 60.7%in 2008，It has dropped to 52.1%in 2020。The outbreak and the Russian -Ukraine conflict since 2020 further exacerbated this backward trend。Economic globalization means that the cost of production factors in global configuration and flow will increase significantly，All countries have to work hard to seek localization of the supply chain，to ensure that operation is more flexible。This means that with the disappearance of the international division of labor and the decline in market competition，bet365 Play online games Resource allocation efficiency will further deteriorate，The cost of commodity rises significantly，As a result。

Third, the structure of the population and labor market continues to deteriorate。The negative impact of population aging on economic and social development is a severe problem facing many developed economies。With the increasing popularity of higher education，The speed of accumulation of human capital is significantly slowed down，further restricting the potential of economic growth。In addition to changes in the number and quality of population，The structure of the labor market has also changed significantly，Labor participation rate and decline in working hours are not conducive to output and price stability。Since the mid -1990s，American women's labor participation rates continue to decline，Men's labor participation rate has gradually declined with the "baby tide" generation entering the retirement stage。At the same time，Since the global financial crisis，The global average working hours are significantly reduced，The impact of the population on the economy further deteriorates。Labor supply decreased will be pushed for salary remuneration，Increased pension guarantee expenditure will increase the burden of social welfare expenditure，Not conducive to productivity increase，This will all lead to the slowdown in global economic growth and the rise in prices。

Fourth is the short -term impact of climate change policy。To achieve carbon neutralization target，The main developed economies have adopted a lot of policies to cope with climate change，European Central Bank also incorporates climate change factors into the new monetary policy framework，Buy at corporate bonds、The mortgage framework、Corresponding measures should be taken in terms of information disclosure requirements and risk management。but but，On the one hand，Under the circumstance that the technology has not bet365 live casino games yet achieved a major breakthrough，In order to achieve a large amount of investment and targets that require a large amount of investment and replace the assets that have not yet reached the use period，Innovative technology application may have a large negative impact on output。On the other hand，Price means such as carbon emissions transactions or carbon tax will be intensified in short -term exacerbation of the tightening effect caused by energy supply and demand，Push high inflation expectations。Current，A series of low -carbon transformation measures adopted by the major developed economies except the United States have led to a significant increase in carbon prices，indirectly promoted the price of related energy and commodities，This leads to a comprehensive increase in prices。Visible，Climate response policy at least exacerbated economic vulnerability。Due to the continuous adhesive of the Russian and Ukraine conflict，Europe is facing the increasingly serious energy crisis，further exacerbated the risk of economic stagnation。

Global economy is facing long -term stagflation risk increase，As the largest developing country，China will inevitably be impacted to varying degrees。For this，We should resolutely implement the Party Central Committee、Decision and deployment of the State Council，According to "the economy must stabilize、To prevent the epidemic、The spirit of development must be safe "，Both should face difficulties，More firm confidence，Active decisive as、Active response gram difficulty，Coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development，Deepen reform and opening up，Guarantee basic people's livelihood，Stable to stabilize the macroeconomic market。Future，While continuing to implement a good monetary policy，Further play the role of fiscal policy，Strengthen the coordination bet365 Play online games of fiscal policy and monetary policy; appropriately increase the tolerance of exchange rate fluctuations，Give full play to the role of its macroeconomic automatic stabilizer; improve the macro -prudential management of cross -border capital flows，Passing the abnormal situation of international capital flow，Do a good policy response plan; unswervingly promote high -level opening to the outside world，Contributing to China for the improvement of global governance。

　(Author Unit: People's Bank of China Research Bureau)