Since March 2023,The initial collapse of small and medium-sized banks in the United States,The aftermath is still unresolved。This crisis is directly caused by the continuous and substantial interest rate hikes in the United States,Thus triggering a liquidity crunch in the financial system and the risk of revaluation of financial assets,Ultimately, it will have a huge impact on the balance sheets of small and medium-sized banking systems。But the author thinks,The collapse of small and medium-sized banks is an accumulation of risks caused by deviations in nj bet365 concepts,Is the inevitable result of the imbalance of U.S. financial nj bet365 policy decisions。
Imbalance in decision-making between nj bet365 and benefits
The formulation of U.S. financial nj bet365 policies mainly revolves around the trade-off between nj bet365 costs and benefits。nj bet365 costs include enactment、Various nj bet365 costs including supervision and enforcement of rules。How to establish reasonable nj bet365 burdens,Sustaining economic growth while achieving financial stability,Becoming a priority and key content in the policy formulation of US financial nj bet365 authorities。However,Due to the excessive pursuit of optimal "cost-effectiveness",There is an imbalance in the decision-making process of nj bet365 costs and benefits in the United States。
The main classification standard for US financial supervision is asset size。The United States follows the "tailor-made" principle,Implement different enhanced nj bet365 requirements (EPR) on banks with different asset sizes。Accordingly,Large banks with assets exceeding US0 billion are defined as systemically important financial institutions,Strict nj bet365 requirements need to be implemented;In addition to the supervision of small and medium-sized banks with smaller asset scale, they need to meet the minimum capital adequacy ratio、Except for leverage ratio and other requirements,Only requires a risk committee and chief risk officer。This is mainly because the classification index of scale is more economical,Economies of scale are also important considerations。Relevant research has been preliminarily confirmed,There are economies of scale in financial supervision,Additional supervision of large banks would increase nj bet365 costs less than the increase in bank size。
However,Financial nj bet365 standards should be based on asset size、Activity status、Complexity、Based on the comprehensive consideration and analysis of multiple factors such as correlation,It is obviously biased to only use asset size as the main criterion for nj bet365 classification。On the one hand,Excluding asset size,The bank’s business process of realizing assets is equally important。The total asset size standard cannot provide bank asset type information,It is also impossible to explain how banks raise funds to accumulate assets,This may lead to banks being subject to inappropriate supervision;And small and medium-sized banks with similar operating behaviors are in financial difficulties at the same time,It may also cause systemic risks。On the other hand,Blinally pursue the minimum cost and investment to obtain the maximum nj bet365 benefits,Not conducive to the realization of nj bet365 effectiveness。nj bet365 benefits are often difficult to quantify,There may be a "nj bet365 race" phenomenon in which nj bet365 standards are lowered to achieve minimum nj bet365 costs,This pursuit of short-term nj bet365 efficiency lacks long-term strategic considerations。When external monetary policy changes,The imbalance in nj bet365 decision-making is completely exposed,Thus significantly increasing systemic risks。
Imbalance nj bet365 development and security decision-making
The United States is dealing with related innovations、There is also an imbalance nj bet365 relationship between development factors such as competition and fairness and risks,Thereby further expanding the potential risk accumulation。
In terms of innovation and risk trade-off,The United States has always adhered to the principle of “innovation first”。Innovation plays an important driving role in U.S. economic growth,The U.S. government and market funds have always attached great importance to providing financial support for technological innovation。After the international financial crisis,The United States encourages market capital to support innovative activities。Except direct financing,American innovative companies need to raise startup funds through venture capital,These financial supports are generally not long-term and stable,Also highly sensitive to interest rates。Therefore,Small and medium-sized nj bet365 that provide financial services to these technological innovation companies also face greater operating risks。The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank,Closely related to the impact of scientific and technological innovation companies being hit by interest rate hikes,It is also the result of insufficient risk management and control related to innovation in the United States。
In terms of competition and risk balance,The United States places too much emphasis on competition,Resulting in accumulation of risks for small and medium-sized banks。On the one hand,Small and medium-sized banks in the United States are facing the pressure of excessive competition。At the macro level,U.S. financial nj bet365 authorities continue to relax restrictions on bank size,And continue to increase the asset size threshold for supervision of systemically important institutions,Give regional small and medium-sized banks a relaxed nj bet365 environment,Support them to join the ranks of larger banks through competitive mergers and acquisitions。At the micro level,The long-term low interest rate environment is squeezing the profit margins of small and medium-sized banks,Intensifying competition for loans from existing large banks and newly entered non-bank institutions,Eroded balance sheet business。On the other hand,There may be a positive correlation between bank competition and risk。Proponents of the “centralization-fragility” view believe,Bank competition and concentration lead to banks being “too important to fail”,Thus increasing the government’s invisible guarantee,Exacerbating the fragility of the banking system。It is the United States that encourages competition while relaxing control of risks,This has led to the continuous expansion of small and medium-sized banks such as Silicon Valley Bank,The risk of asset-liability maturity mismatch has occurred,And further trigger the liquidity risk of the entire small and medium-sized banks。
In terms of fairness and risk balance,The United States has adopted strengthened nj bet365 requirements for a small number of large financial institutions,Aimed at maintaining fair competition in the banking industry。After the international financial crisis,The number of bankruptcies of small and medium-sized banks once increased,Relaxation or exemption of regulations for small and medium-sized banks,Aims to maintain fairness in its compliance costs。Big banks take advantage of competition and build powerful lobbying groups,Obtain the dominant position of nj bet365 rules through nj bet365 capture,And nj bet365 rules that apply to all banks mean smaller banks also need to make compliance efforts。However,Explanation of the collapse of the US bank,The risk diversification capabilities of small and medium-sized banks are even worse。Small and medium-sized banks have fewer opportunities to diversify their operations,This lower degree of diversification may result in higher return volatility and financial risk。
Imbalance between nj bet365 and government rescue decision-making
U.S. financial nj bet365 authorities have emphasized,Strengthen market discipline、Eliminate the connection between implicit government subsidies and lower financing costs for large banks。But in practice,The United States failed to fully clarify the boundaries of market discipline and government assistance。Unclear rescue attitude is not conducive to the establishment of market expectations and the relief of risk aversion,It is also not conducive to the formation of market discipline。
U.S. financial regulation emphasizes market discipline。First,In the Diverse Resolution Framework for Systemically Important Institutions,The United States only has a resolution mechanism but no EU recovery mechanism。Secondly,For medium-sized banks with loose external supervision,nj bet365 authorities require the establishment of an internal risk committee,Prevent risks through its own internal risk control mechanism。Finally,The nj bet365 policy clarifies the asset size threshold that automatically strengthens prudential supervision and personality inspection requirements step by step,Reduce market expectations of “too big to fail”。
But in fact,The Fed’s key regulations regarding government bailouts are not clear。On the one hand,The Fed’s discretionary power is continuously suppressed。Unconventional liquidity relief measures used by the United States in the international nj bet365 crisis,Further destroying the constraints of market discipline,Subsequently, the Dodd-Frank Act placed certain restrictions on the Fed’s discretion。On the other hand,The Fed has incentives to bypass Congress and use more bailout tools。International nj bet365 crisis rescue operations brought more than billion in profits to the Federal Reserve,More rescue tools will also help make up for the shortcomings of unforeseen risks。The Federal Reserve established an innovative Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP) to provide liquidity loans to various savings and loan institutions,If there is no profit loss in the future,It can make up for the failure to detect the risks in the banking system in advance。
For the purposes of the U.S. Treasury,Unable to clarify commitment on deposit insurance limits。The biggest problem at the moment is,How to resolve the liquidity risk of small and medium-sized nj bet365 caused by deposit insurance limits。In this incident,The U.S. Treasury Department continues to revise its commitment to provide deposit insurance for failed nj bet365。On the one hand,Deposit insurance limit issues may trigger liquidity risks,More guarantee actions from the Ministry of Finance are needed;On the other hand,Unlimited protection for all deposits,Meaning moral hazard issues for depositors and nj bet365 and the huge financial burden of insuring the associated trillion in deposits。
In summary,Although the United States is weighing the costs and benefits、Reasonable in terms of the relationship between development and security, as well as market discipline and government assistance,However, there is a problem of insufficient consideration of risks resulting in unbalanced supervision,This is the internal reason for the collapse of small and medium-sized banks in the United States and the continued aftermath。Currently,The large U.S. banking system is also experiencing continued outflows of deposits,The International Monetary Fund said that as financial conditions tighten,The vulnerability of non-bank financial institutions is also gradually emerging。If the US financial nj bet365 authorities do not correct it,There will still be other risks and fluctuations in its financial system,Catalyzed by external factors,Risk accumulation may occur and trigger systemic risks。Therefore,Our country should pay close attention to the development of the situation,Be prepared to respond to related risk spillovers。
(Author’s unit: Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of nj bet365)
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