The subject of bet365 bonus code indiana is both fascinating and controversial，After more than two thousand years，Philosophers still cannot agree on a standard model for induction。bet365 bonus code indiana has a place in both logic and philosophy of science，The main reason is that it has an outstanding advantage: it has philosophical reliability，Complex cases that can be applied to scientific practice。American philosopher of science and logician John Norton proposed a theory of induction without universal patterns，Reject previous inductive systems with universal rules。Norton was initially most interested in Einstein’s epistemology of scientific discoveries，After deep cultivation, doubts gradually arise，How did Einstein discover these wonderful laws of physics，And be convinced that they are correct？This intellectual confusion haunted him，He gradually shifted the focus of his research to bet365 bonus code indiana。

　　The failure of universal patterns of bet365 bonus code indiana

Norton combines his research background in the philosophy of science，Point out that existing bet365 bonus code indiana models have certain flaws。This drove him to propose a new inductive logic theory: "substantive inductive theory"，To distinguish from "pure inductive theory" with universal inductive principles。In his opinion，The reliability of bet365 bonus code indiana stems from the fact of scientific practice，These facts are the “essence” of induction，And the specific facts of each scientific field warrant acceptable bet365 bonus code indiana within that field。

Human beings have a tendency towards uniform standardization，This tendency is manifested in all aspects。In the field of science，People hope to establish a unified theory of everything。In the field of scientific methodology，We hope to obtain a standard reasoning model that can be applied to various situations。Sorry，This tendency is just an ideal state。We cannot agree on a single systematization of bet365 bonus code indiana，This situation is by no means temporary，It is a problem we will face for a long time。Why is this situation happening？It’s not because we lack intellectual persistence，But the goal we set cannot be achieved in principle。For a long time，Philosophers and logicians try to find an adequate basis for inductive rationality。The most famous one is the "Principle of Uniformity of Nature" proposed by Mill when he elaborated on the five laws of cause and effect。Russell and Keynes, among others, defined the general principle of induction in different ways。Various solutions、Endless emergence，Most solutions draw on deductive reasoning，Attempt to set a universal reasoning premise for bet365 bonus code indiana，But failed。This thorny problem reflects to some extent the irreconcilable contradiction between the principle of universality and the successful operation of science。On the one hand，If these principles are general enough，And still correct，Then these principles will become hollow、Blurred or even looped。In fact，Except for a few special areas，The world we live in is not harmonious as a whole，Even with a certain degree of chaos。On the other hand，To illustrate the success of scientific practice activities，It is necessary to introduce some diverse specific facts，Then the principle of universality will be lost。

To overcome these difficulties，The theory of substantive induction can only be based on the assumption that all inductions are partial，That is, substantive assumptions are only obtained in specific fields，bet365 bonus code indiana mode can only obtain local rationality。When we resort to localization schemes，We no longer use universal principles to defend bet365 bonus code indiana globally，But use substantive facts for partial defense，The gap between universal principles and the successful operation of science will automatically disappear。

　　The rise of substantive bet365 bonus code indiana theory

Whether in the collision of philosophical thoughts，Or in scientific practice，bet365 bonus code indiana is an important issue that cannot be ignored。Previous inductions focused more on the formal approach of induction，But in Norton’s view，We are misled by deductive logic，Desire to establish an inductive theory based on universal patterns，We have inevitably reached a dead end。Norton did the opposite，Developed an inductive theory that does not resort to universal patterns。

Tracing the origins，We found，In the historical development process of bet365 bonus code indiana logic，There are two logicians who have explicitly discussed substantive theory，The 19th century British logicians Mill and Venn respectively。Groat calls Mill's "System of Logic" "substantive logic"，Wen En inherited this view。Mill proposed an bet365 bonus code indiana system with substantive rules，It can be said to be an early attempt at substantive bet365 bonus code indiana logic。Although Wen En used this concept，But he did not completely agree with Mill’s position，Ven’s “Substantive Logic” mainly introduces his frequency theory and its applications。The germination of the idea of ​​substantive induction theory has already existed，But Norton systematically elucidated the core of substantive induction theory for the first time，Give it new vitality。If the substantive bet365 bonus code indiana theory of Mill and Venn is in the traditional sense，Then Norton’s substantive induction theory is in the modern context。A distinctive feature of substantive induction theory in the modern context，Embodiment and the history of science、The relationship between science and philosophy is closer。

　2003，Norton published an article "A Material Theory of Induction" in the magazine "Philosophy of Science"，Formally proposed substantive induction theory。Norton inspired by Goodman and Hempel，Combined with his scientific philosophy research background，Propose a "substantive inductive theory" that is different from "pure inductive theory"，Emphasize the local application of induction，Reject the common bet365 bonus code indiana model。We are often misled by the model of deductive logic，Only then can we ambitiously build an inductive system based on universal patterns。We must be soberly aware，bet365 bonus code indiana gains legitimacy and reliability from facts，The basis of bet365 bonus code indiana is often based on facts in specific fields，Thus all bet365 bonus code indiana is local。

Precisely because the bet365 bonus code indiana model is determined by facts，So we can examine the reliability of these facts to assess and control inductive risks。At the same time, substantive induction theory no longer distinguishes between the factual part and the pattern part of induction，So it is not easy to be criticized by Hume's problem。Substantive inductive theory does not advocate any specific bet365 bonus code indiana system，Preach that bet365 bonus code indiana can only be contextual or local，Substantive induction theory is more like a framework of "methodology"。

　　Basic concepts and core ideas of substantive induction bet365 bonus code indiana

Substantive inductive theory is relative to pure inductive theory，What kind of inductive theory can be called a pure inductive theory？The "pure" here does not specifically refer to symbolic things like deductive logic，Rather, it refers to a general expression borrowed from deductive logic，Then the acceptability of bet365 bonus code indiana is ultimately based on some general templates: into these general templates we enter the actual content，Then generate legal induction。Norton calls it "pure inductive theory"，The current mainstream research on inductive logic is pure inductive theory，For example, Bayesianism belongs to this category。For example，The probability formula and Bayes’ theorem provide a template for Bayesian theory，And the concept of belief is placed in this template。

Different from pure inductive theory，The validity of pure inductive theory is mainly based on formal validity。The main idea of ​​the substantive induction theory is，Background facts acquired in a certain field tell us，What is good bet365 bonus code indiana in this field，What is bad bet365 bonus code indiana。This theory is fundamentally different from almost all bet365 bonus code indiana methods mentioned in the current inductive mainstream literature，Previous bet365 bonus code indiana methods distinguish good bet365 bonus code indiana from bad bet365 bonus code indiana by examining whether the reasoning has appropriate formal properties。

We can then summarize the core ideas of substantive induction theory into two slogans，One is: "All induction is local。"This slogan reminds us，In bet365 bonus code indiana，Any laws of natural science that we discover are limited to specific facts in some specific fields。Another slogan is "There are no universal rules of inductive inference"。This slogan reflects a core assumption: the guarantee of bet365 bonus code indiana，Ultimately not traceable to a universal pattern，Rather it is traced back to logical facts obtained only locally。

We cannot generally use the bet365 bonus code indiana patterns currently listed in the literature。Bayesianism does not apply everywhere，But the problem lies precisely here，The current mainstream view tends to believe that probability theory can be applied to almost all scientific fields。In the case of deductive reasoning，By means of the connective word，We can quickly distinguish good patterns from bad patterns。But this method is not suitable for bet365 bonus code indiana。Opposite，Substantive induction theory tells us，Certain reasoning patterns are good，Because they rely on specific facts in the domain in which they are applied，And these facts well warrant these patterns of reasoning。

The development prospects of substantive induction bet365 bonus code indiana

The main points of Norton’s substantive induction theory are clear and concise，Explains the limitations of inductive global defense，Considering that bet365 bonus code indiana is partial in nature、Contextualized，There is no default mode for mechanical matching and automatic application，Any overall defense will eventually fail。At this point，Most scholars agree。Their doubts mainly focus on two issues: First, the solution to the inductive problem of substantive inductive theory；The second is the normative issue of substantive induction theory。

Putting aside these small flaws，We believe that the idea of ​​bet365 bonus code indiana partial defense of substantive bet365 bonus code indiana theory is profound。Fundamentally，The grand goal of purely bet365 bonus code indiana theory cannot be achieved，Ineffective in application。Essential induction theory only pursues the application potential and application effectiveness in local fields，Gathered a foothold，Avoid one-sided profundity。The current interpretation of Norton’s essence shows a diversified trend，For example, some scholars have proposed that substantive induction theory can be used to deal with direct reasoning、Best explanation reasoning、Theoretical reflections such as analogical reasoning and thought experiments。Contextual reasoning as localization can be combined with case-based reasoning，You can also use the idea of ​​substantive induction theory to transform the confirmation theory。In addition，There are also scholars who use substantive induction theory as a scientific methodology，Applying it to the social sciences。Substantive induction theory is a cutting-edge achievement in the field of bet365 bonus code indiana logic，Aroused widespread attention in the circles of logic and philosophy of science。Substantive induction theory as a unique partial induction defense theory，To a certain extent, it reflects the strong vitality and broad development prospects of bet365 bonus code indiana logic。

　(This article is a major project of the National Social Science Fund "New Development of Modern bet365 bonus code indiana Logic、Theoretical Frontier and Application Research” (15ZDB018)、National Social Science Foundation General Project "Research on Cognitive Signs of Extended Mind Naturalization" (16BZX023)、Phase results of the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Funding Project of the Ministry of Education "Frontier Research on bet365 bonus code indiana Logic from the Perspective of Cognitive Psychology" (18YJC72040001)

(Author’s affiliation: School of bet365 bonus code indiana, Nankai University)