Grasp the theoretical method of the gray system
January 12, 2021 09:50 Source: "Journal of Social Sciences" 2021, January 12, 2021, Issue 2088, Issue 2088

In the gray theoretical textbook,Generally, "Black" indicates the information unknown,"White" represents the information is completely clear,Use "ash" to represent some information clear、Some information is not clear。The connotation of a concept is not clear,and extension clearly,This is the concept of gray。The value involved in the concept of gray,We only know about the approximate scope without knowing the exact value,Called ash number。Gray system refers to some information clear、Some systems with unclear information。In recent years,The theoretical method of gray systems is becoming more and more widely used in the field of philosophy and social sciences,The role of solving practical problems is getting greater and greater。

Gray system theory is a scientific method for independent innovation in my country。The 1980s,Grey System Theory as a new theoretical method is created。At the academic conference of Shanghai Middle -US -US control system in 1981,Professor Deng Julong (1933-2013) at Huazhong University of Science and Technology first uses the concept of "gray system" in the academic report "Control of Unknown Systems"。1982,Deng Julong published the paper "Gray Control System" in Chinese publications,In the same year, he also published the paper "The Control PROBLEMS of Grey bet365 Play online games Systems)。Published by these two papers,Explain the birth of the subject of gray system theory。Problems of incomplete information,Provides the deepening of this theory to expand space。Its theoretical characteristics are,Use the perspective and method of control theory in complex systems,Combining the method of operation with automatic control,Wide existence in the objective world、Research with gray uncertainty problems。This system scientific method of independent innovation in my country,Soon the attention of many authoritative scholars at home and abroad,and set up more than a hundred related research institutions。After nearly 40 years of development,originated in the field of control theory、The gray system theory of the discipline of technical sciences,has penetrated into industry and agriculture、Economy、Society、Ecological、Water conservancy、Meteorological and other fields,Its research results in high -end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing technology、Large oil and gas fields and coalbed methane development、Water body pollution control and governance、Actual application in projects such as large aircraft and other projects,Play an important role in my country's scientific and technological progress and innovation。

The theoretical method of the gray system is unique and practical。The uniqueness of the theoretical method of gray system,It is less data and information。Its research object is "some information known,Unknown Sample "Small bet365 live casino games Sample" and "Poverty" uncertainty system。To achieve the operation of the system、Correct description and effective monitoring of evolutionary law,This method is mainly through the generation and development of "part" known information,Take valuable information。Its specific research paradigm,Analysis of the uncertainty system (such as the economic and social system)、Modeling、Forecast、Decision and control。

When performing system analysis,The classic method we often use is to treat the behavior of the system as a random change process,Use traditional probability statistics method,Find its statistical regularity from a large amount of time series data。This method is effective when the statistical data volume is large,But there is a certain insufficient informant information system with a small amount of data。Gray system theoretical research is poor information modeling,A new method of solving system problems when providing poverty information。This method regards all random processes as changes in a certain range、The gray process related to time,The gray variable is not started from the perspective of finding statistical laws、Research through large samples,but a method generated with less data,Copy the messy、Original data without obvious regularity is tidelled into a regular number of generation numbers and then for research and analysis。

Gray system theory is based on qualitative analysis,Tightly combined with quantitative and qualitative。Research a system,Mathematical models that need to build Bet365 app download a system。The establishment of the system model,Generally, you need to experience ideological development、Factor analysis、quantification、Dynamic、Optimize these five modeling steps。Grey Forecast Model is a small amount、Incantant information,A method of establishing a mathematical model and making predictions。Generally there are five common gray prediction methods: number column prediction、Disaster and abnormal values ​​prediction、Season disaster and abnormal values ​​prediction、topology prediction、System prediction。Where,Number column prediction is the basis。The significant feature of the gray model is,No need to have a lot of samples,Sample does not require a regular distribution、Calculate the workload,Quantitative analysis results and qualitative analysis results will not be inconsistent,Can be used for recent、Short and medium and long -term predictions,Predictive accuracy is high。For example,Each year national food production forecast,The results of the results are small、High accuracy、Predictive advance period。Use seasonal disaster and abnormal values ​​to predict,You can also predict a drought in a certain area、Disasters such as floods and other disasters。

Gray decision model is borrowing fuzzy mathematics、Operational learning、Some high -level mathematics models in system engineering,Make a systematic resolution decision。Event、countermeasures、Effect、The target is the Bet365 app download four elements of the gray decision method。Where,Event and countermeasures are the basis of decision -making。Gray decision models are many types。For example,Gray situation decision、Gray -level decision、Gray linear plan、Gray target decision、Gray integer plan、Gray large -scale plan,and the gray associated decision to develop later、Gray cluster decision、Gray Development Decisions、Gray risk -based decision、Gray drift linear plan、Gray dynamic planning and gray multi -target plan。These decision methods,Not only does the development of the theory of gray system,and in the economy、Society、Publication、Medical、Ecological、Meteorological、Political and Law、History、Culture、Publication、Transportation、Management、Industrial control and many areas,Solved production、A large number of practical problems in life and scientific research。Gray correlation analysis is a commonly used decision tool。

The control of the gray system is different from the general white system,Mainly because there are ash numbers in the system。In this case,To understand the dynamic changes of the system,How to get the white control function to change the system quality and control the change process of the system。Gray control is essentially analyzing the gray system、Modeling、Forecast、Control of decision -making ideas。It can be more conducive to achieving the control purpose,Reveal the deep essence of the problem,Is the essence of gray Bet365 app download control thinking。Current,The development of the economic and social system faces many uncertainties。Shao Data、Poor credit industry has become a traditional method bottleneck that restricts the development of economic and social systems。The theoretical method of the gray system is used in the economic and social field,The more you use the more intense、The better, the better the potential。For example,Over the years,Some scholars use the gray prediction model,Successfully predicted food output in the country or provinces,and the prediction accuracy is high。

In the field or process of almost all human activities,Decisions are everywhere、The theme that penetrates always。Gray decision analysis based on the theoretical method of gray system,It can be used to handle the complexity faced by the economic and social field、Toss、Decision -making difficulties in high risk。For example,Bid decisions of major projects,Supply chain partners to choose decision -making and other issues involve major risks and interests,Is a complex systematic work,Gray Decisions when dealing with these problems,Can play an important role,Provide objective and fair decision -making basis and reference for decision makers。

With the language of the machine、Artificial Intelligence、Internet technology and other rapid development,The application prospects of the theoretical method of gray system are wider。Under the guidance of new information technology,Gray prediction、Gray Decisions、Gray control and other methods can be based on bet365 live casino games human -machine dialogue,Make the theoretical method of the gray system in the economy、Society、Culture、Ecological and other fields are more convenient for applications、Flexible。

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