Financial economy research under the perspective of complex systems
September 05, 2023 09:37 Source: "China Social Sciences" September 5, 2023 Issue 2728 Author: Yang Xuewei Zhu Peng

The complex system is the overall composed of a large number of interaction elements。The overall behavior and nature of the complex system,It depends not only on the simple superposition of its constituent element behavior and nature,It will also be affected by the interaction between elements and the influence of the feedback mechanism。At the end of the 20th century,Qian Xuesen and others propose the concept of "open complex giant system",Comprehensively explained the connotation and methodology of complex giant system,and emphasize many systems in the real world,As an economic and social system、Biological system systems, etc. are all open and complex giant systems。From this,The development of complex system theory provides theoretical basis for solving major reality and complex problems。Sheng Zhaohan and others integrate management science in the field of knowledge and complex system theory,Creatively propose the concept of complex system management,Basic theoretical innovation dedicated to complex system management,and apply it to my country's major infrastructure engineering project management practice。In the research of financial economics,Researchers continue to improve the classic theory,Gradually develop behavior of financial economics and social finance。But,Limitation of the basic number rational modeling tool,Make these theories face huge challenges when explaining the complex phenomenon in the real financial economy system。Many influencing factors of the financial and economic system,The interrelationships of the elements in the system are complicated,Interactive ways of system and social environment、Deep,Therefore, it is necessary to study the financial and economic system from the perspective of complex systems。General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out,"To deepen the understanding of the nature and laws of finance,Based on the actuality of China,Go out of the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics "。Visible,Deep understand the nature and operation of the financial Bet365 app download system,It is a major proposition that the party and the country care about。Answer this major proposition is inseparable from theoretical exploration and engineering modeling of the financial economic system,The latter gave birth to a series of financial economy research under a series of complex system perspectives。

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The financial system is a complex system composed of a large number of adaptive and deep -acting individuals。Traditional analysis model is difficult to portray the complex phenomena of the financial system。The rapid development of computing power and hardware facilities,Making a computational method using the calculation experiment method is possible to model the financial complex system。For example,Calculated the core idea of ​​computing experimental finance,It is to model the financial market participants through the "bottom -up" method,Explore the complex evolution law and micro formation mechanism of the financial system。

A series of representative models have emerged in the field of computing experimental financial science,Such as an individual learning model、population evolution models, complex network models, etc.。Individual learning model is one of the early models of calculating experimental finance,Researchers use intelligent algorithms to simulate investors' learning behavior,Building an artificial stock market through multiple periods of learning,The complex features of reappearing the real financial system,Try to understand the micro mechanism behind the operation of the stock market。Specific evolution model is a type of model formed by calculating the integration of financial science ecology,Its preference、Priority belief and wealth level divide the participants in the system into different types of groups,Then simulate the evolution process according to market transaction rules,to reproduce and understand a specific market phenomenon。Another source of the complexity of the financial system,It is a complicated structure of information dissemination network。The above individual learning model and population evolution model can be regarded as a simpler network model,Because they do not consider more complicated interaction between individuals。For this,Researchers use complex network models to deepen the understanding of the Bet365 app download evolution of financial systems。where,No standard network can be used for network modeling with heterogeneity with serious nodes。A few nodes in the biddless network have a lot of connections,and most nodes have only a small number of connections,These minority key nodes play a dominant role for the overall operation of the network system。Modeling method based on the standard -free network can describe the inherent nature of the severe uneven distribution of the complex system as a whole。Some scholars analyze the infectious effects and fragility of the financial system based on the biddless network。

Big Data Age,The development of information technology and the emergence of new types of information,The scope of activity of the financial system participants、Method、frequency and speed,Make the information interactive environment more complicated。But the development of big data technology allows researchers to use more fine granularity observation system phenomena,The upgrade of computer technology also makes it easier for researchers to achieve financial system modeling based on micro perspectives。As Zhang Wei and others pointed out,Theoretical modeling based on computing experiment finance,Can fit the complex financial system in reality,The dynamic law of observing the system。Thanks to the technological development of the big data era,Future Computing Experimental Finance is expected to influence the influence of participants in the heterogeneity on the financial market、The formation mechanism of irrational elements、Market feedback mechanism modeling and other fields made progress。

 Urcelery: Cultural evolution and social finance

In recent years,One of the cutting -edge areas of the research of complex financial economic system -Social and Financial science has also made new progress。Social Finance Science regards the financial market as a cultural evolution system: when exploring the laws of the evolution of the financial market,Comprehensive consideration information、Strategy、Belief、Market model and other dynamic social cultural characteristics influence。The research philosophy of social finance has jumped out of the mechanical classical market dynamic framework。Different from traditional finance,The key to its research philosophy is to consider the effects Bet365 lotto review of social communication deviation on the Bet365 app download evolution of financial systems。Social Finance believes: economic signal、Concepts and behaviors are shaped by society,They will be accompanied by systematic changes with social communication,Therefore, it is no longer a priority and endowment in the classic sense。

David Hirshleifer pointed out that multiple social financial research directions are inseparable from complex financial and economic systems。The first type of study is called a mass model。Volkswagen model is the public's expression of the law of the world's operations,Often resort to emotional,It is easy to understand and can be seen everywhere,If the various "superstitions" of the trend of the stock price。Volkswagen models are dynamic development,The change of communication in the crowd will affect the individual's decision -making behavior,Therefore, it can be portrayed with epidemiological models。The second type of research and inspection of the social communication bias of economic signals on individuals。For example,It is easy for people to have good expectations for future economic conditions,Then cause the risk of insufficient savings。An important inference of this model is that information asymmetry about wealth will suppress consumption,This is consistent with the effect of increased savings in the inequality of empirical research and observation of wealth。The third type of research focuses on the impact of self -enhanced communication bias on individual decisions。Investors in the financial market tend to only preach their experience of successful investment,Investors that lead to receiving signals adopt more high -risk strategies with poor performance。The fourth class of research emphasizes the limited carrying capacity of existing information transmission means,The latter will make it difficult for the social communication network to be difficult to correct different beliefs between individuals。

Classic finance and behavioral finance acknowledge a fact: learning from others is the core of the financial market。But,Fully understanding the learning and communication process requires a dynamic evolutionary perspective。Social Finance provides such a research paradigm。Unlike behavioral finance (focusing on the impact of psychology on the market),Social and Financial Bet365 app download Science clearly pays attention to the thinking and behavior of how to shape the system participants,The evolution process of these features,Therefore, it is expected to help explain the important phenomenon in the real financial system -such as market price bubbles and predictable "vision" that can be rewarded by stock returns -because many researchers think of market bubbles、Price collapse and market sentiment fluctuations are "social" sexual phenomena,Reflects the infection of investors' emotions and thoughts in varying degrees。

  Opportunities in the new era:Machine learning and big language model

The complex financial and economic system has complexity、non -linear、High interconnection and other features,Make research on complex financial and economic systems facing at least the following three challenges。First, data acquisition and processing。Complex financial and economic systems involve a lot of data,and this data may have different structures、Source and frequency。Research complex financial and economic system must first effectively collect data、Cleaning and integration。The second is the model establishment and verification。Complex financial and economic systems have the characteristics of complex structure and dynamic evolution,Complex and changing data generation process to establish a suitable model to effectively explain the phenomenon of various market phenomena。Third is prediction and decision -making。There is a complex relationship between various variables in complex financial and economic systems,These relationships show non -linearity and non -confirmation,Even if a suitable model is established,Specific models of neglect of certain factors or relationships,It may also make it facing difficulties in prediction and decision -making based on new data。

In recent years, the attractive machine learning technology has solved the above difficulties in the study of complex financial economic systems to a certain extent。Bryan Kelly and Xiu Dacheng, etc. to depict the "machine learning" technology into the overall composition of the following aspects,A collection of diversified high -dimensional models of statistical prediction,The "regularization" method that has model selection and reduces the fitting function,Efficient algorithms that can search for a large number of potential model settings and seek the optimal solution。The Bet365 lotto review above characteristics make this technology attracted attention in the research prospects of this technology in the field of complex financial and economic systems。For example,The complexity of complex financial and economic systems is often ignored by simple structured models,And machine learning provides a more flexible model setting compared to the traditional economic model to cope with complex variable interactions and blur functions,so。

In addition to the classic machine learning model,The large language model represented by ChatGPT is a technical breakthrough in its revolutionary technology,It is a profound impact on the paradigm of social science research。Large language model refers to the input data is mainly text data,Large models with ultra -high -dimensional estimation parameters。Research on previous financial economics,Most of the small data economics or statistical model,Usually only concerned about the relevant information in its target economic mechanism,As a result, other large amounts of data information is not used。But,The complex financial and economic system is an ultra -high -dimensional dynamic complex system,There are many elements of composition,The correlation between the elements is complicated and presents non -linear and time -degeneration features,It is difficult to use a small model to describe its essential laws (especially the overall nature of the system level)。Big language models are expected to provide new tools and methodology for the study of complex financial economic systems。Hong Yongmiao、Wang Shouyang and others put forward many valuable directions for the research of large language models in the financial economy,One of them is to combine the network crawler tool with a large language model,Automatically collect the content published on social media,and better understand the valuable information contained in related languages ​​through model training,Then analyze the emotional analysis of public opinion data,To determine the emotional tendency of each information。From the perspective of complex systems,The above -mentioned research path can be more fine -grained by micro individual characteristics in complex financial systems、Observation of higher frequency,Therefore, it is expected to achieve a more comprehensive complexity of the financial system、More fit description。

Bet365 app download Research on the complex financial and economic system has made progress in many aspects,Although this field has not yet established a unified theoretical framework system that can be compared with mainstream financial economics,But with the increasing complexity of the inside and outside environment of the financial and economic system、The upgrade of calculation and storage technology and the continuous improvement of the realistic needs of the complicated phenomenon of the financial economic system,I believe its research prospects will become more and more brilliant。

  (The author is a professor at the School of Engineering Management of Nanjing University; a doctoral student at the School of Engineering Management of Nanjing University)

Editor in charge: Zhang Jing
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