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Traditional population science is scientific，Its survival and development depend on the support and analysis of data。But，It is worth reminding is，If the data is unreliable、Method is not applicable，焉 焉 can scientifically analyze、In -depth research? I'm afraid it is against the wishes、It's half the effort。

younger generation scholars are used to regulating analysis or various empirical models、Measurement method to study the correlation between variables。If you are strong，It is glad; if we weakly related，then sad。Can be described as strong and weak、or low or low always close love。Some papers are not good、Logic unknown，Lack of thoughts，What to say "Discover"，That is also the result of computer and model operation，Conclusion is nothing more than related or significant level。This is like a "fruit"。Writing articles is getting more and more complicated, more and more lengthy，All you see is complex fog。Common sense judgment, how do you have to say thousands of discussions! Essay is easy，Breaking Hui Jian。In a sense，There is "false prosperity" for population learning，The academic significance and policy value of achievements is very limited。The essence of the spirit of scientific research should be free exploration、Avenue to Jane、Seeking truth and pragmatic，Find that simple essence in complex things、Clear logic and the truth of the problem。Unfortunately，Look at more literature Bet365 lotto review with more formats、Studies with the same path，Conclusion is similar，Nothing of new ideas，Don't look at it。The spirit of independence、Can't talk about the thoughts of freedom，Not to mention the high realm of a family，It is inevitable to doubt the significance and value of such academic academics。Perhaps it can be said，Just have academic unscrupulous、There is a way to have no ideas。

I should know，Qualitative research is the foundation and premise，Good qualitative research can make people feel the academic weight and ideological light。From asking questions and assumptions，After some reflection and critical thinking、Discussion and constructive research，Logic follow -up，Logic follow -up，Thinking back to rational when summarizing，This is the path that scientific research should have。Chinese population studies must take root in their own national conditions，Caring for the people，Promote family conditions and humanitarianism。Four sentences of the four sentences of the Northern Song Dynasty more than 1000 years ago，"Stand the heart for heaven and earth，Standing for the people，For the sanctuary，It has emerged as a student's mission for Wanshi。The author's understanding of learning is learning from asking，Learning to be used，Ask for the people。Learning is Tao，Academic is the surgery，Modern academics seem to enter the ivory tower，Methods that are lost in the ocean and difficult directions of the data of unknown and false data，But the humanistic care of the text is rare。If the population learns to approach people，Multi -point question bet365 best casino games consciousness，Multi -point rational thinking，Multi -point home love，That's better。

　　Population forecast and population foresee

Population Study ontology is population statistical science or mathematical population，But too much emphasis on the data (not to mention whether the data is reliable and accurate)，Also ignore the subjectivity of the population (person)、The risks of the invisible people are invisible。Marx has criticized this as a meaningless population abstraction，The essential attribute of the population is social characteristics or social attributes。Population forecast can refer to，But you cannot treat it as foreseeable。

Forecast can also be said to be "data game"，The mystery lies in the selection of parameters，Generally high、Middle、Low three plans or several plans，The result is automatically given by the formula。But forecast is often a regretful job，Successful predictions are difficult to expect，Full of uncertainty in the future。The original intention of prediction is to find some certainty from uncertainty，Therefore, prediction is not foreseeable，Instead, it is a speculation and estimation of data based on the development trend of things。Forecast research can only be seen in the comparative identification，Divide high。So，In similar studies，It must be found in the shortcomings of past research，Highlight the best length of this study，or method to suppress or data and perspective。

The longer the long -term prediction，The greater the risk of distortion，Because there are too many variables，The more you can't grasp it accurately。So，Forecasting research is the most difficult bet365 Play online games to do well and the easiest to make researchers frustrated。The risk of prediction research is to make computers and predictive formulas think about the future trend for the human brain，But the calculation results and scientific conclusions are one step away、Heritage。It is noted that the population system is open and dynamic，Static parameters preset cannot be constrained with hidden uncertain future，At best, it is only a virtual scenario that is depicted。For example，Research setting settings after 20 years before the prediction period, the total fertility rate (TFR) is reduced to A level (solution 1) or B level (solution 2)，Maintain this level to the end of the predicted period。That is to say，TFR settings for 20 or 30 years are set to constant value and no longer change，Is this possible? Variables become constant，This is a disease that is difficult to overcome for a long time! So the population forecast is some preset assumptions and constraints，The more long -term population predictions，The more you can only understand as direction and trend speculation，can only be used as a reference，Can't blindly accept it because of its scientific coat。But，We need to predict，Also requires prediction and foreseeable。If the successful population prediction is based on data -based、The accuracy of the parameters and the application of the method，So successful population foresee is based on a deep understanding and grasp of the law of population，Need wisdom and insight。Of course, we need to refer to the number of population forecasts，But it cannot be too dependent on it。Pay attention to bet365 Play online games the predictions of the wise person，It is necessary to enhance the scientific nature of population forecast，Improve the accuracy of predicting population，It is also necessary，can better play its role of the world's murderous people，Driven the responsibility of governing the country。

　　People -oriented and countless

People are the sum of social relations，The essential attribute of the population is social attribute。China said that it needs to establish a total population awareness，It is better to say that it is to establish a population structure awareness、Ecological consciousness and strength consciousness。The essence of population problems is not only a problem with the development of people's freedom，And is a problem for the development of the balancing of the population。

People often use the "corner of the iceberg" to interpret the superficial and deepness of the problem、explicit and hidden、Local and overall association。We must pay attention to the deep and deep population problems under the "sea level"，The structure of the population、Relations and functional problems。Population structure includes gender age structure、Urban and rural structures of the population、Class structure and occupational structure，There is a population of the population or ethnic composition。Population relationship includes gender relations、Acting relationship、Parent -child relationship、Intergeneration、Social and ecological relationships of population relationships such as generations，and the relationship between population and resources and environment。The function of the population Bet365 lotto review refers to the social value of the population、Positive influence and positive role，Including the creativity of the population、Productivity、Competitiveness、Battlepower、deterrence、The strength and conversion of service and support。Population dividends do not refer to the high -age population of labor、The so -called golden population age structure with a relatively lighter population burden (actually "population opportunity window")，Instead of complementary human capital accumulation and human resources development。So，Population dividends may decline，But as long as there is a replacement and growth of the population，There will be a demographic dividend。

Caring for people is the ethical aspiration of Chinese population。Seeing people，What do you want to see? Better words，Human Rights、Humanity、Human sentiment and heart，and human health skills、Cultural knowledge literacy and ethical moral literacy，Especially the national spirit in the bones。In the development of localization of population science，The Chinese spirit that needs to advocate the strong self -improvement，Digging Chinese Power，Chinese Meteorological Creation of Cultural Navigation。People -oriented、Number of balance is the basic methodology of our understanding and solving the Chinese population problem，It is necessary to use people's comprehensive development to coordinate population problems，Enhance the well -being of the people in all aspects，This is the meaning of the question of human population.。Pursue the growth of "Happiness GDP"，Promoting the society'bet365 Play online games s "co -construction, common integration sharing" should become the consensus and strong sound of the age of young children。

　(The author is a professor at Peking University Population Research Institute)