Knowledge and Scholarship

Traditional demography is a quantitative science，The survival and development depend on the support and analysis of data。However，It’s worth reminding，If the data is unreliable、Method not applicable，How can scientific analysis、In-depth bet365 sign up offer？I’m afraid it backfired、Half the result with twice the effort。

The younger generation of scholars are accustomed to using regression analysis or various empirical models、Econometric methods to study the correlation between variables。If strongly correlated，Zixinran；if weakly correlated，It’s sad。It can be said that one is strong and the other is weak、High or low total sentiment。Some papers are full of problems、Unclear logic，Lack of ideas，What to say about “discovery”，That is also the result bet365 sign up offer operation of computers and models，The conclusion is nothing more than correlation and significance。This is like a fruit tree with lush branches but no "fruit"。Writing articles is becoming more and more complex and lengthy，All you see is the fog of complexity。Why do common sense judgments require thousands of words！Articles are easy to find，Wisdom is rare。In a sense，There is “false prosperity” in demography，The academic significance and policy value bet365 sign up offer results are very limited。The essence bet365 sign up offer spirit of scientific research should be free exploration、The great road to simplicity、Seeking truth and being pragmatic，Find the simple essence in complex things、Clear logic and the truth bet365 sign up offer problem。Unfortunately，Read too many documents with similar formats、Research with the same path，The conclusions are similar，Nothing new，It’s okay not to watch。Independent spirit、The idea of ​​freedom is out bet365 sign up offer question，Not to mention the high level of being a family，This makes people doubt the significance and value of this kind of scholarship。Maybe we can say，Just academic but no knowledge、There are methods but no ideas。

Should know，Qualitative research is the foundation and premise，Good qualitative research can make people feel the academic weight and ideological light。Start from questions and assumptions，After some reflection and critical thinking、Discussive and constructive research，In-depth questioning，Logical follow-up，Return to rational thinking when summarizing，This is the path scientific research should take。Chinese demography research must be rooted in its own national conditions and local conditions，Care for the people，Advocating feelings of family and country and humanitarianism。Four mottoes by Zhang Zai, a great scholar of Neo-Confucianism in the Northern Song Dynasty more than 1,000 years ago，"Establish a heart for heaven and earth，Establishing a destiny for the livelihood bet365 sign up offer people，Continuing the unique learning for the saints，Creating peace for all generations” expresses the mission of scholars。The author’s understanding of learning is that learning comes from asking，Learning by doing and putting it into practice，Ask for the people。Knowledge is the way，Academic is the art，Modern scholarship seems to have entered the ivory tower，Lost in the ocean of data that does not know whether it is true or false and the maze of methods that are difficult to discern，There are few articles expressing humanistic care。If demography approaches anthropology，Multiple problem awareness，More rational thinking，More feelings about family and country，That would be better。

　　bet365 sign up offer forecast and bet365 sign up offer foresight

Is the ontology of demography demography or mathematical demography，But too much emphasis on data (not to mention whether the data is reliable and accurate)，Also ignore the subjectivity of the bet365 sign up offer (people)、The risk of seeing unknown people。Marx once criticized this as a meaningless abstraction of bet365 sign up offer，The essential attribute of bet365 sign up offer is social characteristics or social attributes。bet365 sign up offer forecast can be referred to，But it cannot be treated as foresight。

Forecasting can also be said to be a “data game”，The secret lies in the selection of assumed parameters，Generally high score、中、Lower three plans or several plans，The result is automatically given by the formula。But prediction is often a regrettable job，Successful prediction is hard to expect，The future is full of uncertainty。The original intention of prediction is to find some certainty from uncertainty，Therefore prediction is not foresight，bet365 sign up offer a speculation and estimation based on data about the development trend of things。The truth of prediction research can only be seen through comparison and identification，Find out the difference。So，In similar study，The deficiencies of past research must be discovered，Highlight the strengths of this study，Either methods or data and opinions。

The longer-term prediction，The greater the risk of distortion，Because there are too many variables，The more difficult it is to grasp accurately。So，Predictive research is the hardest to do well and also the most likely to frustrate researchers。The risk of forecasting research is to let computers and forecasting formulas think about future trends for the human brain，But there is a step away between calculation results and scientific conclusions、So far away。Please note that the bet365 sign up offer system is open and dynamic，Static parameter presets cannot constrain the secret and uncertain future，At best, it depicts a virtual scene。For example，The study sets the total fertility rate (TFR) to fall to level A (scenario 1) or level B (scenario 2) after the first 20 years of the forecast period，And maintain this level until the end of the forecast period。In other words，TFR is set to a constant value and does not change for twenty or thirty years，Is this possible？Variable becomes constant，This is a chronic disease that is difficult to overcome in long-term forecasting！So bet365 sign up offer projections have some preset assumptions and constraints，The more long-term bet365 sign up offer forecast，It can only be understood as directional and trend speculation，For reference only，We cannot blindly accept it just because it is disguised as science。However，We need predictions，Prophecy and foresight are also needed。If successful bet365 sign up offer forecasting is based on reliable data、Accuracy of parameters and application of methods，Successful bet365 sign up offer forecasting is based on a deep understanding and grasp of bet365 sign up offer laws，Need wisdom and insight。Of course we have to refer to the quantitative results of bet365 sign up offer projections，But don’t rely too much on it。We should pay attention to the prophecies of wise men，It is necessary to enhance the scientific nature of bet365 sign up offer forecast，Improve the accuracy of bet365 sign up offer forecast，We must also improve the predictive and explanatory functions of bet365 sign up offer science，In order to better play its role in managing the world and benefiting the people，Assume the important task of governing the country。

　　bet365 sign up offer-oriented and number-oriented

People are the sum of social relationships，The essential attribute of bet365 sign up offer is social attribute。China does not so much need to establish awareness of its total bet365 sign up offer，It is better to establish awareness of bet365 sign up offer structure、Ecological awareness and power awareness。The essence of the bet365 sign up offer problem is not only a problem of human freedom and comprehensive development，It is also a matter of balanced development of bet365 sign up offer and ecology。

People often use "tip of the iceberg" to explain the superficial and deep aspects of a problem、Explicit and recessive、The relationship between part and whole。We must pay attention to the profound bet365 sign up offer problem that is deep below the "sea level"，That is, the structure of the bet365 sign up offer、Relationship and functional issues。bet365 sign up offer structure includes gender and age structure、Urban and rural structure of bet365 sign up offer、Class structure and occupational structure，There is also the ethnic structure or ethnic composition of the bet365 sign up offer。bet365 sign up offer relations include gender relations、Support relationship、Parent-child relationship、Intergenerational relationship、Intragenerational relationships and other socio-ecological relationships of the bet365 sign up offer，And the relationship between bet365 sign up offer, resources and environment。The function of bet365 sign up offer refers to the social value of bet365 sign up offer、Positive influence and positive effect，Includes the creativity of the bet365 sign up offer、Productivity、Competitiveness、Combat Power、Deterrence、The strength and transformation of service capabilities and support capabilities。Demographic dividend does not mean a higher proportion of the working-age bet365 sign up offer、The so-called golden bet365 sign up offer age structure with a relatively light bet365 sign up offer burden (actually the "bet365 sign up offer window of opportunity")，But human capital accumulation and human resource development that complement each other。So，The demographic dividend may decline，But as long as there is bet365 sign up offer replacement and growth，There will be a demographic dividend。

Caring for people is the ethical aspiration of Chinese demography。See numbers and people，What do you want to see?？Qiyan，Human rights、Humanity、Human feelings and people's hearts，And people’s health skills and literacy、Cultural knowledge and ethical and moral qualities，Especially the deep national spirit。In the development of localization of bet365 sign up offer science，Need to promote the Chinese spirit of virtue and self-reliance，Discover China’s striving power，Creating the Chinese atmosphere of cultural leadership。People-oriented、Weighing by numbers is our basic methodology for understanding and solving China’s bet365 sign up offer problem，We must coordinate and solve the bet365 sign up offer problem with the comprehensive development of people，Promote people’s well-being in all aspects，This is the proper meaning of the title of humanistic demography。Pursue the growth of “happy GDP”，Promoting social "co-construction, integration and sharing" should become the consensus and strong voice in the era of low birthrate and aging bet365 sign up offer。

　(The author is a professor at the Institute of bet365 sign up offer Research, Peking University)