Family theory and Qi Dang different theory in decision -making psychology
September 06, 2023 Source: "China Social Sciences" September 6, 2023 Issue 2729 Author: Li Shu

In Decision Psychology Research,There are two kinds of ideas that are completely opposite: one is the "effective comparison" strategy of "options/compensation"; one is the "attribute comparison" strategy of "dimension/non -compensation"。The former is represented by the "Prospect Theory" proposed by American Israeli psychologist Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tersky.,The latter is represented by the "Equate-to-Differentity theory" of the two Hou Guan (Fuzhou) ideological genes.。

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About half a century ago,Kaniman and Twoski close cooperation,Open the scientific cognitive journey of human beings for decision -making and judgment,and in economics、Medicine、Law and other areas have triggered change。They found,Human beings are non -rational,People's behavior often deviates from the perfect model designed by economists。Caniman also won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics。

The originator of the opening of the behavior economics,The influence of Caniman and Twosky continues to this day。But,Although they claim that "human beings are unreasonable,People’s behavior deviates from the perfect model designed by economists,And those acts that violate the common sense can be predicted ",But they still did not jump out of the "perfect rational model",The underlying logic of its expected theory is "weighted Seeking and、Facial round to "。Try to take one of their most important discoveries- "Frame Effect" as an example。

Suppose the United States is preparing to respond to an unusual outbreak of Asian diseases,It is expected to cause 600 people to die。There are two existing plans to bet365 Play online games fight against diseases to choose from。Assume that the precise and scientific estimation of the consequences of various schemes is shown below,Please make a selection in the two partial options:

Positive framework:

If a solution is adopted, 200 people will survive.

If the B is used,1/3 chance of 600 people will survive,and 2/3 opportunities will return unintelligated。

Negative framework:

If the C is used, 400 people will die.

If the D scheme is used,1/3 of the opportunity will die without anyone,and 2/3 opportunities 600 people will die。

Take a closer look at these four schemes,Plan A and Plan C The results are exactly the same,Plan B and the results of scheme D are exactly the same,Just the description method is different (200 people still die vs. 400 people die)。Therefore,If you choose a scheme a under the front frame,So selecting a solution under the negative framework C is the consistent choice preference。

But,Experimental results show,Most people (including specialists) Select Plan A (72%) under the positive framework,Choose a scheme D (78%) under the negative framework,Preferences are not consistent,This violates the principle of non -degeneration。This phenomenon that the choice of preference change due to "narrative framework conversion" is called "frame effect"。

According to the logic of Caniman and Twosky,The reason why people show inconsistent in decision -making is,The same option is in different frameworks,Some "expected" values ​​calculated based on the value function are different。Specifically:

  

 "One hook is enough for tomorrow" Qi Dang's theory

my country Politicians Shen Zhen (Hou Guanjin Fuzhou) Zeng Yueye drink alcohol,Under the Xingxing,Write two poems: One hook has been enough tomorrow,Why is it clear and full。Shen Zeng's uncle Lin Zexu after watching it,Think about it,I took the pen,The word "must" of "Hebai" is changed bet365 best casino games to the word "Together",Make the poem become: a hook is enough tomorrow,Not to mention Qinghui full。

The "one hook" and "fullness" in the two poems described the state of the moon's profit and loss。The language of decision -making theory is to say,National Hero Lin Zexu said, "Not to mention Qinghui Full of Full",means that the relationship between the "full -scale" A moon and the "full food" B moon is the relationship between "strong dominance" -a the moon in all parts (dimensions) is obviously better than B Moon (see picture 1)。Encountered this choice scenario,People do not need to go through careful calculations,"Knee" will also choose A between the two options of A and B。

and "Father of Shipping" Shen Zhen's poem said, "Why Beng Qinghui and Full",It means that the relationship between the "one -hook" A moon and "full food" is the relationship between "weak dominance" -a the moon in the "nine hooks" part (dimension) and B moon The same (dim),But in the "one -hook" part (dimension) better than B moon (bright) (see Figure 2)。Encountered this choice scenario,People have no need to calculate,It is also enough to decide to choose A between the two options of A and B。

Ward Edwards, the father of behavioral decision -making theory, believes,Principles of Weak Occupation Principles,If Option A is at least as good as Option B in all dimensions,and Options A must be better than option B at least in one dimension,So option A is better than options B。

But,In real life,The options we most often encounter have neither "strong occupation" nor "weak occupation" relationship,but A is better in certain dimensions (parts) than B; B is better in other dimensions (parts) than A,The relationship is shown in Figure 3。Facing this major category of decisions,People can make trouble。Because of this,Herbert Simon, the father of artificial intelligence, once said,No basic science research goal can be compared bet365 best casino games to "understand how humans think、Solve the problem、Make a decision、How to improve our ability to solve problems and formulate policies "is more promising、More important。

In Figure 3, this situation,If the expected theory of Kaniman and Twosky is used to achieve decision -making,People should: calculate the brightness of each part of the Moon A and Moon B respectively; to accumulate the brightness of each part (some low scores can be compensated by part of the low score); Moon (a、maximization between options)。This idea needs to use complex and accurate mathematical calculations,is "Options、Compensation "strategy" strategy。In the context of China,is the strategy of "all face" or "face round"。

But,There is also a non -mainstream decision strategy。First,Don’t agree when judging the bright state of the same moon,"The Danity of the One Hook part can be compensated by the" Bright "of the nine -hook part",Therefore, it is not compensation but non -compensation; second,Don’t agree with the choice of the second choice,Comparison is the overall feeling of the option,What thinks compares is the feeling of some (attributes),So it is not between options but between attributes。This kind of "dimension、Non -Compensation "The" attribute comparison "strategy is the most" Chinese "representative is the theory of Qi Dang。

History,The major decision made by Lin Zexu and Shen Zhen is also according to "dimension、Non -Compensation "" Properties Comparison "strategy。For example,Lin Zexu's famous sentence "Gou Li's life and death with,How about avoiding the tendency of disaster and blessing ",It means that if it is beneficial to the country,I can ignore life and death,How can you escape because of disaster,What is it attached to see blessings? The language interpretation of the decision -making bet365 Play online games strategy is,The value in the most important dimension of national interests cannot be by other dimensions (such as money、fame and fortune、Family Life, etc.) The sum of the sum of the accumulation value of the accumulated value。

1866,Ding You's former Jiangxi governor Shen Zhen faced a major choice in life: Ding You continued to be an official in the system,Or does it take to stop Ding You's office outside the system? Zuo Zongtang Sangu Gong Lane invited the Prime Minister of Shen Zhen's palm of the handwriting.、Non -fixedly member、No Budget "。Shen Zhen's rights and money owned by the Prime Minister of the Prime Minister (1867),Compared to the governor of Jiangxi (1862), it is "big discount"。If weigh all the advantages and disadvantages (the total score of fame and gains and losses),After selecting Ding worry, continue to be an official or optimal solution in the system。But,Shen Zhen and Mawei Shipping School "One School, One Enemy and One Country"、The choice of a large number of Fujian student soldiers who donated a country to the country showed,In front of national righteousness,They believe that it is beneficial to the country,Any "name" and "profit" is difficult to rectify (trade off,What a big loss is willing to eat。

From Lin Zexu、Shen Zhen can be seen in the unanimous approval of "one hook is full of tomorrow",For them,Value in the most important dimension of national interests,Can't be by other dimensions (such as money、fame and fortune、Family life, etc.) compensated by cumulative values ​​in the cumulative value,How to accumulate any other dull,Can't compensate、This is glorious to surpass the national interests。

During the underworld,The purpose of the "Qi Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Dang Ding Theory" in my life is that the two -wheeled moon on the "nine hooks" Bet365 lotto review section,It is almost different (Qi Tonglu),The "one hook" part with a large difference in dark differences is used as the basis for the final moon as the winner。So,When you can use the "weak occupation" principle to achieve "differential decision -making"。

How to turn the most common decision -making scenarios in daily life (Figure 3) into a scenario that can apply the principle of "weak occupation" (Figure 2),The most critical step is to see the differences in the "nine hooks" part of the two months in Figure 3 as "almost"。To be plain,It is "Drinking and Drinking"。"Drinking" (drinking) Fuzhou dialect pronounced [há],Iself does not care about。Fuzhou Gushan has water rocks,Legend has the ancestor of Yongquan Temple Kaishan Master Shen Yan chanting the scriptures here,Suspected of the waters under the holes,Drink and stop the flowing water。Fuzhou cuisine stalls have a "catfish baby drink [há] pocket [dóu]" sales method,The hawker will be cheaper catfish、Crab、Clam and other aquatic products are divided into a pile of piles (pocket),Then sell the price in the pile -down unit。"Drinking and drinking" that obviously has a weighing scale reflects the transaction status that the buyers and sellers are not too much care。

"MUO? 耷] Words in dialects in the dialect in Fuzhou area,The frequency of use is quite high。"罔" contains together、casual、barely、、Try to wait for meaning。"Drink" and "Go" match,"Drink" and "Go" match、、casual、No need to be too true、horse tiger "meaning。So,If you need to use the "weak occupation" principle to achieve decision,Putting other differences in other unimportant dimensions as "almost" (the option A is at least as good as options B in all dimensions),The mentality of "drink and go" becomes the key。Can do this,It can reach the state of bet365 best casino games Shen Zhen's poems for Qi Dang.。

(The author is a lecture professor at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Fuzhou University、Professor of Psychology at the Department of Psychology at the University of China)

Editor in charge: Zhang Jing
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