2020,The epidemic of new crown pneumonia impacted the world economic integration process,Make the problem of globalization a hot discussion on the academic community。Reminder of many scholars,Decoration of globalization may cause damage to the world economy,Proteism is not an "antidote" for economic downturn and fluctuations。
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According to the introduction of Douglas A. Irwin, a professor of economics at Datmmouth College in the United States,Globalization contains many elements,Rulin、Trade、Investment、Data、Thought、Cross -border flow of technology。Global trade is an appropriate indicator reflecting the integration of world economy。If the total world import and export ratio to the world's GDP is used to calculate the global trade open index,So before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,The degree of world economic integration has reached the highest level of history,Trade open index is as high as 61.1%。
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,"Slow Globalization" has arrived and continues to this day,The Trade Open Index has also declined。Data display from the United Nations Trade and Development Conference,2009-2018 global trade volume increased an average annual increase of 3.5%,obviously below 7.6%before the 2008 financial crisis。bet365 best casino games The World Trade Organization CIA,2019 global commodity trade amount fell by 0.1%,It is expected that it will drop by 13%-32% in 2020。International Monetary Fund Organization Forecast,Global commodity and service trade amount in 2020 will drop 11%。
The World Bank released a report,Global value chain promoted the rapid growth of international trade after 1990,But since the financial crisis in 2008,Weakness of international trade growth,Global value chain expansion slowdown。This trading pull -type growth model also faces two major threats: First, the new technology shortens the distance between producers and consumers,Reduced the demand for labor; second, the trade conflict between large powers may cause contraction or division bet365 Play online games of the global value chain。
Owen thinks,Policy steering in some countries is an important reason for weak international trade。For example,The Trump administration promotes the "U.S. Priority" policy、Exit the cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement and other methods,Make the United States away from trade liberalization、Towards protectionism,and spread trade barriers to more regions。Senior Researcher at the Brugar Institute of European Think Tank、Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist in the Asia-Pacific region of French Foreign Trade Bank, said,Under the role of bad demonstration in the United States,Other countries have also begun to use protectionism as a "weapon" for unilateral interests。
Epidemic impact global development
The professor of international economics and macroeconomics bet365 best casino games at the University of Rotterdam Iralasos, Peter A. G. Van Bergeijk, a.g. Van Bergeijk,The 1930s,The outbreak of Spanish flu has shown the effect of the virus on globalization。
Insufficient emergency preparation of the international community on the epidemic of new crown pneumonia、Insufficient international cooperation reflects another potential reason for globalization,That is, the "game rules" that support the globalization of individual powers abandoned the globalization。The purpose of these rules was to establish an open trade and investment environment、Stable and peaceful development system。But the helper of the globalization at that time,For example, the United States and the United Kingdom,But now it has become the destroyer of global governance。If the British withdraw from the European Union is a serious mistake,Then the United States frequently obstructs the selection procedure of the new judge of bet365 best casino games The World Trade Organization Appeals Organization Appeals, which leads to the first time the agency "stops"、It was announced to stop funding the World Health Organization when the new crown pneumonia has not subsided,This can be described as a serious disaster。
Fan Bo Gejik told this reporter,The most impact on the epidemic is undoubtedly cross -border tourism,This is one of the few continuous growth points in the past ten years。He expects,within a certain period of time,The flow of multinational personnel will be reduced,But the commodity trade will recover quickly。Now,Many countries have found the severity bet365 Play online games of the global value chain break,In the future, there may be increased inner bags and diversified supply chain。Although the current openability of the world economy is far lower than expected,But it is still obviously better than the 1930s。The degree of opening up in today's society is much higher than in the past,The Internet has brought unprecedented connectivity。
Irving said,The epidemic is changing the views of the world's economic integration,drive some countries to re -consider trade dependence problems。EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said at an informal meeting of Minister of Trade,You need to think about how to ensure the strategic autonomy of the EU。Australian Prime Minister Morrison told the Australian Council,In the past few centuries,Opening trade has always been the core factor of Australia's prosperity,But also need to carefully examine domestic economic sovereignty。The United States has not played a leading role in responding to the epidemic,Caused a blank blank in the world trading system,The lack of international coordination and cooperation may accelerate the emergence of neighboring policy。
Decoration of globalization is the error "therapy"
After the epidemic,Some countries have issued an export ban due to concerns about the lack of domestic production capacity。Irving Reminder,This kind of policy will exacerbate the shortage of materials,Because protectionism does not replace material reserves and emergency responses,In recent years, the capacity building of the international community Bet365 app download in these two aspects is weaker。Elero told this reporter,Decoration of globalization will damage the world economy,It will reduce the size of the scale formed due to professionalism。The biggest victim of globalization will be a poor country,Especially those countries with lower savings levels。
Fan Bo Gegik believes,The biggest challenge facing the current globalization is the prevalence of nationalism,The United States withdraws from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization,It may play a bad demonstration function。The United States continues to interfere with bet365 best casino games The World Trade Organization Appeals Agency to appoint new judges,Damage the effectiveness of the World Trade Organization Dispute Solution Mechanism。For this,Other countries need to keep calm。
Richard N. Haass, chairman of the US Foreign Relations Association, said,The continuous enhancement of global interconnection has always been a typical feature of the modern world。The problem now is,Whether globalization has reached the highest peak,If it has reached,We should support or resist its next development。Cross -regional flows of personnel and items run through human history,The difference is the scale of flow、changes in speed and diversity。
In recent years,More and more countries and individuals have begun to regard globalization as "net risk"。For example,International trade can increase the salary of related enterprises and industries of exporters,Consumers of imported countries have purchased higher quality、Lower price,But it will also impact bet365 Play online games the producers of the imported country,Causes unemployment。So,Importing countries oppose free trade,Calling the government to play a greater role,The voice of "fair" or "control" trade is constantly emerging。A large number of cross -border flow of population was once accepted or even popular。Foreign immigrants are the United States in the economy、Science、The success of the cultural field laid the foundation,But many Americans are alert to immigrants today,I think immigrants are employment、Public Health、Security、Culture pose a threat to American citizens,A similar phenomenon has also appeared in many European countries。These factors all catalyze the trend of de -globalization。
From the view of Has,Closing the country's gate cannot guarantee the security and prosperity of a country。Copy climate change、Popular disease、Terrorism、Global challenges such as nuclear diffusion requires effective common action,No country can be alone。The form of global governance should be set up according to the situation of the specific global challenges and the country with willingness and ability to cooperate,But unilateralism and isolationism are obviously not a reliable policy road。Globalization is a reality that cannot be ignored or denied,The only choice for our choice is to face the best way。Globalization is not a problem to be solved,but a reality that needs to be managed,But globalization is a wrong "treatment plan",It will cause more problems than "disease" itself。
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