bet365 live casino games The official website of the University of Bokoni, Italy recently sent a message，Professor Valentina Bosetti、Professor Massimo Marinacci, a professor at the Department of Decision Science and the Nobel Prize winner of Economics Lars Peter Hansen，Carried out a study based on how modern decision -making theory can help policies formulated during the key period of new crown pneumonia.。

Bet365 app download Researchers think，Decisions made on the epidemic，Uncertainty that occurs in the model、Uncertainty between models and uncertain environment inside the model。The uncertainty of the model refers to，Model is simplified to complex phenomena，Model cannot be completely consistent with reality，There must be some errors，If some important variables may be ignored。The uncertainty between the models includes the proliferation of different models，Also includes the parameters of each model are unknown facts。and the uncertainty inside the model refers to，Even if we have a full understanding Bet365 lotto review of the probability model，It is still impossible to predict the results。

Facing this complicated situation，Formal decision -making rules can provide a lot of help。A formal decision -making problem includes a set of behaviors、A set of results and a set of environmental status，and a function associated with a combination of results with each behavior and environmental state。Take epidemic response as an example，The behavior includes the closure of schools with different times，Results include the benefits and costs of action，The result depends on the environmental status of the epidemic conditions Bet365 lotto review and economic conditions。The formal decision -making rules are a function，It connects the best practice with the observed data。Decision makers can use this method，Clearly understand the problem and avoid confirming the error、Reasoning errors found in psychological studies such as optimism。

Marinach thinks，The government can add a decision analyst to the consultant group，To ensure that the policy formulates formal decision -making rules。This can not only help decision makers understand all sources of uncertainty when making decisions，It can also help decision makers and the public Bet365 app download make more open and transparent dialogue，Increase public trust。

　　（Chen Yutong/Compilation）