The American "Nature" magazine published in March the professor of History and Art History of Uteliz University in the Netherlands, Bas Van Bavel, and Professor Ma Teng, Department of Environmental Science, University of Wakhunagan, Dutch. Marten Scheffer's papers "impact on the historical impact on unequal: Talk about" Big Tune Flash "。Two scholars think，From ancient times to the present，Most crises will deepen instead of alleviating inequality。Based on the current social environment，The epidemic of new crown pneumonia may not be able to get rid of this mode。

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Bavier told this reporter，A large -scale research project he hosted a few years ago brought history as "laboratory"，Compare analysis of specific cases，Verify various assumptions about how European in the former industrialization era and how to deal with natural disasters and artificial disasters，I look forward to understanding why when facing impact，More recovery of some ancient society，What factors lead to vulnerability。Recent new studies have learned the methods used in the project and other historical and economic research results on ancient European disasters，It has inspected the "big tone of the tone" that has been popular in recent years。

In human history，The degree of wealth and power inequality is high and low。A common view is that large -scale impact played a "cleaning" role in reducing social and material inequality。This view is represented by the concept of "big tone" proposed by Walter Scheidel, a professor at the Department of History at Stanford University in the United States。He proposed，Looking at the global history of the Stone Age to the present to the present，Ignorance never subsides in a peaceful way，National War、Revolution、Government collapse、Disaster plague has repeatedly destroyed the wealth of the rich。French economist Thomas Piketty also talked about，Return to the public through foreign assets、Destroy capital、Methods to make up for the loss of war with a progressive tax system，After two world Bet365 app download war，Wealth inequality in human society is significantly reduced。

The most prominent evidence that the most prominent view of the "big tone" is the black death of half of the death of European population in the mid -14th century，The logic of its argument is: when the capital is not lost and the population is reduced by a large number of people，Economic balance tilt towards labor。The 1960s and 1970s，British historian M. M. Postan (M. M. Postan) and other Marxasist scholars proposed，Society in "Postpopular disease"，Landlord revenue is reduced，Rising wages of farmers and workers、Enhancement of liquidity、Non -economic burden is reduced、An opportunity to have property increases，The economic gap between the nobles and the civilians is reduced。Quantitative studies in recent years have also discovered that many black deaths have reduced the gap between the rich and the poor、Case where ordinary people's actual salary rises。Serbian American economist Branko Milanovic (Branko Milanovic) believes，When the endogenous power of economic development does not exist，The most common cause of inequality in the era of pre -industrialization is war、Popular disease、Disaster events such as natural disasters。

Bavier and Schofer found in new studies，Although some disasters have reduced inequality，But this depends on specific conditions。In fact，Most disasters have deepened inequality。The impactful ancient society is not the same，Its organizational forms are different，The impact of disasters on inequality is also different。Specifically，The impact of disaster on the degree of inequality experience three stages。First，The nature of the impact and the wealth distribution and institutional structure of society before the disaster occurred.。Second，The system configuration of the society before the disaster determines the institutional measures to deal with the disaster。third，Institutional response and the previous system configuration determine the indirect impact of disasters on inequality。

　　Wealth and political forces determine the consequences of disaster

According to the research of Bavier and Schofer，The direct and indirect impact of the same type of impact on the difference between the inflammation is significantly different bet365 best casino games in different society。In northwestern Europe，After the outbreak of the black death，ordinary people get more freedom、higher salary，In the short term and long -term economic inequality, the economic inequality has been improved。In the Mediterranean area，The influence is not the same。In northern and central Italy，Irimination decreases in the short term，But in the long run, it is still rising。In northeastern Europe and Castilla (now in Spain)，Due to insufficient historical materials，Can't know the direct impact of black death on inequality，But in the long run，The situation is constantly deteriorating。1629-1631，A series of plague，Not equal levels that have not changed in the short term，I still worsen unequal in the long run。

The above difference comes from the social background when the impact occurs，Two decisive factors are wealth distribution and decision -making influence。Wealth provides the possibility of buffering crisis or even dangerous。For example，When a crisis occurs in rural areas，Deposit allows wealthy farmers to pass the difficulty，Free of the veteran property，You can even buy land from the poor at a lower price。In the early 14th century, England's outbreak of food crisis，The poor have to sell land，The rich people accumulate land，This social polarization reached the peak when the European famine in Europe from 1315-1317。The research on the destructive floods in history also shows，Because it cannot buffer capital loss、Dam Maintenance costs high，Poor farmers on the river bank or coastal have to sell the land to the rich neighbors or investors，Learn from the long term，Local wealth inequality is more serious。

In the usual social environment，The influence of decision -making and rules is closely related to the level of wealth control。Wealth provides a path to obtain political influence，The possibility of protecting and increasing wealth for political influence，The two form a self -enhancement feedback。Therefore，In most cases，The rules for the formulation of disasters are in line with the interests of groups with wealth and political influence。In the example of black death，From the perspective of supply and demand,，Half of European population death will push up the salary and bargaining Bet365 app download ability of workers，Some cases are indeed like this。But，The difference in influence determines long -term results。In northern Italy，Urban elite class becomes a political subject that occupies a dominant position，Its control is expanded from town to surrounding rural areas，Rural population loses political influence。Although the actual salary of the large urban workers in Italy after the black death is rising，But the urban elite introduced the labor law that aims to limit rural income，Added rural tax。These have hindered the rural population to profit from the scarcity of labor。Since then，Urban Elite has also modified inheritance and property rules，To ensure that the large amount of property is still complete when the population dies。In Eastern Europe，Rural elites introduced serves，Place large -scale real estate under your own supervision，And after that for a long time, I have mastered the power to force the serf work for a long time。

Compared with the above case comparison is，The town and villages of the lowlands countries have not appeared forced labor for a long time after the black death，On the contrary，The residue of the non -freedom system gradually eliminated during this period。This is due to the establishment of the meeting before the general public、Public shared object management organization、The Water Management Committee and other mass organizations。This kind of organization appears earlier，but also lost most of the political influence。In other parts of Europe，especially Eastern Europe，Mass organizations have always been weaker。Only in northwestern Europe，Mass Organization has made a strong appearance and maintained its status in several centuries，Until the early modern。Mass Organization is the rescue of all levels in social assistance、Safety、Labor and other important affairs provided direct ways to participate in decision -making，At the same time, the rules for the distribution of collective property and property rights exchange。These mass organizations often set up ownership or upper limit of wealth use。，Mass Organization applies influence on the appointment of urban and rural administrative institutions，As a result, the direct channels that enter the political field at the Bet365 app download local level and the power to formulate rules。In this context，The institutional response to the disaster tends to enhance equality。

　　Preventing new crown pneumonia's epidemic situation

Bavier and Shever's analysis of historical data，In most ancient European society，Abnormal wealth and political influence before the disaster cause the institutional response to the disaster more in line with the interests of rich and powerful groups，and then deepen inequality。but but，There are also special cases: when the masses of the masses established by ordinary people are growing，When you can reverse this mode，impact becomes a new rule、A chance to strengthen equality。So in modern times，How does the crisis affect inequality?

The 20th century to the present，The main impact suffered by the West includes two world wars、"Great Depression" from 1929-1933、1973 Petroleum crisis、2008 financial crisis。Many studies have been displayed，Two World War and "Great Depression"，The degree of inequality decreases。This is because the situation where capital and financial wealth are destroyed is unprecedented in human history，So the "leveling" effect was produced。But，for a longer period of time，The sharing of losses is more important。Two measures during the World War I (for example，Levated very high inheritance and wealth tax) ensure that the rich bear more losses，After the economic recovery, wealth distribution is very different from before the war。It is worth noting that，These measures are not "automatic generation"，but because a large number of ordinary people are in the union、Volunteer Association and the spontaneous organization of political movements in the early 20th century，Create a social and political environment with a balanced influence distribution。And，High estate tax、Wealth Tax and the social security system with this as a source of funds has maintained decades after World War II，Taxation deeply rooted in post -war society、Social and economic system。By the 1970s，Wealth inequality decreases sharply，A large amount of wealth belongs to the collective、Public agency。The direct impact of the war (destroying wealth)、Social impact caused by institutional response and institutional response，Together with bet365 Play online games the long -term "leveling" effect。

1973 Oil crisis outbreak and subsequent inflation increase、Large -scale unemployment，The "leveling" mechanism after World War II ensures that the cost is equal to the fairness of the whole society，Unlimited is not worsen。But，Petroleum crisis promotes people to change the economic system that is already under pressure，The subsequent system changes to the continuous wealth concentration to exacerbate the trend to the road。The 1980s，The status of the weak chemical union、Relax control、Privatization has become a policy paradigm that dominates in Western countries。The new system configuration means that the social background at the time of the next crisis outbreak is obviously different from the social background of most time in the 20th century。Privateization、Globalization、Relax control pushed up the inequality，Large enterprises and wealth owners through lobbying、Political and social influence is tilted towards your own side，So the government's response to the crisis is mainly manifested as: injecting a lot of funds from the economy to keep the financial system complete、Rescue Bank、Restricting inflation、Restore the stock price。Therefore，In 2008, the financial crisis and the subsequent "big decline", although initially caused the stock market price and other asset value to decline，But in the long run, it has pushed up the level of inequality。

Two scholars think，This new study provides a reference basis for predicting the impact of the epidemic of new crown pneumonia。Compared with the crisis periods of the 20th century，The current social and economic environment is higher than the financial crisis in 2008。Global，Unexpected wealth distribution has been further deteriorated since 2008，Many families have no economic buffer，A few people have mastered a lot of resources。overlap of wealth and political forces has also further increased，Political decision -making is mostly consistent with the interests of huge wealth owners，Governments in some countries have even become the same camp as those who are extremely rich。Considering this situation，The institutional response to the new crown pneumonia may deepen inequality。Western history indicates from the Middle Ages to bet365 Play online games the present，When the mass organization is independent of the elite to a certain extent，Ordinary people can use political influence to jointly formulate a system，This is one of the main factors to ensure fair markets。In recent decades，Independent mass organizations are eroded by the dominance of the market，Many governments have failed to stop this process。From the long term，When society is dominated by the market，No political system can protect and maintain the relative balanced distribution of wealth and political influence，The state will be increasingly profitable from the market system、Under the control of people who do not care about re -distribution。Bavier said，Analysis of his and Sabofar is based on Western cases，He very much hopes to see similar studies developed from a global perspective。The model observed this time may not be used to directly predict the upcoming situation，But it is enough to attract people's vigilance of the current trend。