Bet365 lotto review In recent years，International political scholars' analysis and discussion on "prediction" gradually increase。The "prediction" of the academic community has a deep misunderstanding of the "prediction" of international political research，or criticize the method of international political academic circles a single，Failure to "predict" the direction of a major political event，or criticize international political research "ignore historical research"，Leading prediction failure。The discipline of international political research mainly focuses on the "explanation" of the "system" level，instead of the "prediction" of a specific event。Although scholars are trying to "predict"，But "prediction" can be divided into situation assessment、Preferences and probability judgment:，It should be analyzed according to the use of "causal connection" and "related connection" according to different types。"Forecast" research in international politics still exists in many challenges，Comprehensive and accurate international political "prediction"，Still need time and patience。

　　Keywords:Forecast type International system Cause and effect derivation of correlation derivation

　　AuthorWang Jin，Associate Professor of the Institute of Northwest University (Xi'an 710069)。