The risk of global bet365 kentucky bonus code inflation depends on the degree of economic recovery
June 11, 2020 08:00 Source: "Chinese bet365 kentucky bonus code" Issue 1945, June 11, 2020 Author: Zhou Liping

  China as a bet365 kentucky bonus code manufacturing center,Continuously provide high-quality and low-priced consumer goods to the United States and other Western countries,This has become an indispensable factor in stabilizing prices in Western countries such as the United States。

The basic relationship between bet365 kentucky bonus code and inflation,Contains at least three basic theoretical facts: First, bet365 kentucky bonus code leads to credit easing at the same time, which will cause inflation;Second, only one country’s actual output is far lower than its potential output,bet365 kentucky bonus code will cause inflation;Third, there are countries and regions like China in the world,Ability to produce high-quality and affordable consumer goods。

Currently,The central banks of major Western developed countries and regions are responding to the negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economy,High-intensity bet365 kentucky bonus code policy is being implemented,Whether such policies will lead to global inflation has caused concern from all walks of life。The author thinks,From the perspective of the structure of quantitative easing monetary policy tools,Short-term bet365 kentucky bonus code does not mean comprehensive credit easing,Lower possibility of inflation,There will even be partial deflation under the collapse of oil prices。But compared with the impact of the international financial crisis on the economy in 2008,The new coronavirus epidemic has a serious impact on the economy,Includes dual effects on supply and demand,May trigger a global economic downward spiral and deep recession。Therefore,If the global economy cannot recover in 3-5 years,The extremely loose monetary policies of major developed countries will trigger global inflation。

  The basic relationship between global bet365 kentucky bonus code and inflation

When discussing the relationship between global bet365 kentucky bonus code and inflation,Often influenced by the classic conclusion of American financier Milton Friedman that "inflation is a monetary phenomenon anytime and anywhere"。Furthermore,Unlimited global bet365 kentucky bonus code will inevitably lead to inflation,Potential inflation constraints also determine that monetary policy has a limited stimulating effect on the economy。But this classic conclusion was not fulfilled in the practice of global bet365 kentucky bonus code in 2008。In other words,After the 2008 international financial crisis,Major Western developed countries and regions implement bet365 kentucky bonus code policies,Did not trigger global inflation,Instead, it fell into varying degrees of deflation。In this fact and context,We need to rethink the fundamental relationship between bet365 kentucky bonus code and inflation。

Reflection on the practice of bet365 kentucky bonus code policy in 2008,There are roughly four main reasons why inflation has not been triggered。First, bet365 kentucky bonus code in most developed countries did not trigger credit easing,Central bank expands monetary base,Held by commercial banks in the form of excess deposit reserves,There is no simultaneous expansion of credit,The huge amount of money has not entered the real economy,Instead, it stayed at the central bank and expanded the size of the central bank’s balance sheet。So much so that the central bank began to implement negative interest rate policies and taxes on excess reserves,To promote commercial bank lending。Second, unconventional monetary policy is not simply expansion of money and credit,But through yield curve control、Negative interest rate policy and other unconventional monetary policy tools can reduce the fiscal debt burden in the medium to long term,Provide space for fiscal policy。The third is the timely recovery of the global economy,Especially since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the stock market has achieved ten years of prosperity,Economic growth continues,Actual productivity growth is close to potential productivity,The stimulus effect of loose fiscal and monetary policies continues to take effect。Fourth, China is an important force in curbing global inflation。China as a global manufacturing center,Continuously provide high-quality and low-priced consumer goods to the United States and other Western countries,This has become an indispensable factor in stabilizing prices in Western countries such as the United States。So,The basic relationship between bet365 kentucky bonus code and inflation,Contains at least three basic theoretical facts: First, bet365 kentucky bonus code leads to credit easing at the same time, which will cause inflation;Second, only one country’s actual output is far lower than its potential output,bet365 kentucky bonus code will cause inflation;Third, there are countries and regions like China in the world,Ability to produce high-quality and affordable consumer goods。

Based on this,There are two core issues we need to pay attention to: First, whether the current round of bet365 kentucky bonus code and fiscal relief and other policy tools have triggered credit expansion,The second is whether the global economy can recover to potential output levels as soon as possible。

  A new round of global bet365 kentucky bonus code policy measures

Current,The new coronavirus epidemic has blocked the movement of people,There are practical difficulties and high protection costs for enterprises to resume work and production。At the same time,Unemployed、Reduced income、Factors such as the collapse of the stock market and the shrinking of wealth also have an impact on consumption、Investment and other demands have had an impact。This resulted in a simultaneous decline in aggregate supply and aggregate demand,Depression in nominal prices and subsequent deflation will be inevitable。To this,In order to mitigate the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on the global economy and financial markets,Since March,The central banks of major developed countries and regions take immediate action,Easy bet365 kentucky bonus code support to the extreme in the short term,Loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policies such as interest rate cuts + QE (quantitative easing) have been announced,Increase market liquidity,For family、Enterprises and financial institutions provide effective support,The specific policies are as follows。

First,The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in an emergency to 0%,And turn on unlimited QE。March 3,Fed Emergency Operation,Lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points;On March 16, the Federal Reserve once again lowered the federal funds rate target range by 100 basis points to 0%-0.25%,At the same time launch a US0 billion asset purchase plan;On March 18, the Federal Reserve restarted the Commercial Paper Financing Facility (CPFF) used in 2008 and as many as 10 other loan facilities,For enterprise、Credit provided by households and financial institutions;March 23,The Federal Reserve announced that it bet365 kentucky bonus code continue to purchase Treasury bonds and MBS (mortgage-backed securities) to support the stability of the economy and financial system,And no quota limit,That is, "unlimited QE"。

Second,The European Central Bank maintains the main refinancing rate at 0%,Expand quantitative bet365 kentucky bonus code。European Central Bank interest rate decision starting from November 1, 2019,Restart asset purchase plan,Size of 20 billion euros per month。March 12, 2020,The European Central Bank decided to keep the leading interest rates in the euro zone unchanged,Additional €120 billion asset purchase program by the end of 2020,Simultaneous use of liquidity tools and flexible banking supervision and other measures,Injecting additional liquidity into the Eurozone。March 18,The European Central Bank once again announced a 750 billion euro emergency asset purchase program that will continue until the end of 2020。In addition,The European Central Bank stated that it stands ready to adjust all measures appropriately as needed,Ensuring liquidity in the banking system。

 Third,The Bank of Japan maintains the policy rate at -0.1%,Further expansion of easing efforts。The Bank of Japan decided on March 16 to further increase bet365 kentucky bonus code policy easing through expanded asset purchase plans and other means,Doubling the annual purchases of exchange-traded open-end index funds (ETFs) to 12 trillion yen,Double the annual purchases of real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) to 180 billion yen,Also committed to the end of September 2020,Increase the purchase of commercial paper and corporate bonds by 2 trillion yen。March 19,The Bank of Japan announced an unplanned purchase of 1 trillion yen of Japanese government bonds。Among them 200 billion yen to purchase 1-3 year government bonds,300 billion yen to purchase 3-5-year government bonds,400 billion yen to purchase 5-10-year government bonds,100 billion yen to purchase 10-25-year government bonds。

 Fourth,The bet365 kentucky bonus code of England cut interest rates twice to 0.1%,And expand the scale of asset purchases。March 11,The bet365 kentucky bonus code of England announced that it will cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.25%,Maintain 10 billion pounds of non-financial investment grade corporate bonds、Purchase scale of 435 billion pounds of national debt;Introduction of new Term Financing Scheme (TFSME),More than £100 billion in financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises through central bet365 kentucky bonus code reserves;Cutting the countercyclical capital buffer rate to 0% of the bet365 kentucky bonus code’s exposure to loan demand side risk,and last for at least 12 months,bet365 kentucky bonus code loans of up to £190 billion for businesses。March 19,The bet365 kentucky bonus code of England announced a further 15 basis points cut in interest rates to 0 at the special meeting.1%,And increase holdings of UK government bonds and non-financial investment grade corporate bonds by £200bn,Expanding TFSME Program。

 Tools and functions of loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policy

In summary,The tools and functions of central banks in major developed countries and regions to implement loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policies are as follows。First, loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policy tools have been used。From the perspective of anti-epidemic policies of various countries and regions,The current bet365 kentucky bonus code policy tools used by the central bank are roughly the same as the 2008 international financial crisis rescue,Mainly including interest rate cuts、Large-scale asset purchases、Provide convenience for the issuance of various loans。Also supplemented by yield curve control、Negative interest rate policy、Reducing bank capital requirements and other bet365 kentucky bonus code tools。The second is the role of promoting loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policy。From a theoretical and practical perspective,If the loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policy is implemented properly,Can help increase market liquidity and alleviate credit gaps,Reduce credit risk,For family、Enterprises and financial institutions provide effective support。Third, whether the loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policy tools have been exhausted。Before the impact of the global epidemic is over,There is still room for bet365 kentucky bonus code policy expansion,But the space for traditional bet365 kentucky bonus code policy has been exhausted,Unconventional bet365 kentucky bonus code policy space has not been exhausted。The central bank purchases assets on a large scale、Forward Guidance、Negative interest rate policies have not been fully released in different countries and regions,Such as the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, etc.,Negative interest rate policy has not been enabled,Of course once the negative interest rate policy is started,There is no constraint on its lower limit。Large-scale asset purchases are a relative concept,The purchasing space depends on the willingness of central banks of various countries。

Will the implementation of loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policies in major developed countries and regions trigger inflation?On the one hand,From the perspective of the global loose bet365 kentucky bonus code policy tool structure,It will not cause inflation in the short term。During the epidemic,Any funds injected into the real economy,If it flows into high-quality enterprises instead of speculation,All will help the economy stabilize and develop in a good direction。Therefore,Developed countries provide various credit facilities supplemented by strict auditing and screening procedures,The purpose is to select high-quality companies。These companies are simply experiencing liquidity difficulties caused by the outbreak,A failed company with wrong strategic development direction,Keeping these companies alive is the foundation of economic recovery。On the other hand,Currently, all economies around the world have paid varying degrees of economic losses and costs in response to the epidemic,Especially in Western countries with highly developed service industries。Will inflation be triggered after the epidemic,Depends on whether the real economy can recover within 3-5 years。In other words,After the epidemic,The timely recovery of the real economy is critical to curbing future inflation。Vice versa,After the epidemic,If the economy does not recover quickly,The world will face the risk of inflation。

 (The author is an associate researcher bet365 kentucky bonus code Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Senior Researcher, National Finance and Development Laboratory)

Editor: Zhang Yueying
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