Recently，Brukins Society's Global Economic and Development Project Director Homi Kharas，Discussion on the impact on the epidemic of new coronary pneumonia on the world's extreme poverty。Karas thinks，We may never know all the answers to the question。Usually，Poverty data can be obtained by family surveys，Due to some well -known reasons，It is difficult for many countries to conduct appropriate family surveys at present。The most important factor affecting poverty is economic growth。International Monetary Fund (hereinafter referred to as "IMF") made the latest estimate of poverty in 2020 and after，According to this estimation, you can understand the impact of the epidemic on poverty。

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According to the statistics obtained by the World Economic Outlook and World Bank of World Poverty Monitoring (POVCALNET) based on the IMF 2020 and the World Bank Global Poverty Monitoring，650 million people in 2019 bet365 live casino games are in extreme poverty，Based on potential growth trajectory，The poverty reduction process of most countries is steadily promoting，The total number of poor people is also declining steadily。But the current poverty reduction process is slowing。Relatively speaking，2019 performance is better than expected，That is, the number of poor people in the world has decreased。but but，Weak global economic growth in 2020 will bring a fundamental impact on the process of poverty reduction。

Compared with 2019，The poor in 2020 will increase 120 million。With the economic recovery in 2021，The poor will be reduced，But in the long run，Half of the newly added poor people will fall into permanent poverty。to 2030，The number of poverty will still be 60 million more than the poverty base。

Caras listed 10 countries with the most likely increased poverty -stricken people in 2020。Where，India's situation is undoubtedly the worst。India's per capita GDP growth rate in 2020 has been reduced to -11%，It is one of the countries with the worst economic recession worldwide。This poverty reduction process that is already in a backward trend is tantamount to worse than snow，Indian poverty in 2020 will increase by bet365 live casino games 85 million。India will re -put on the hat of the country with the largest number of poor people in Nigeria。

　　China's economy realizes V -type recovery

People generally think，The impact of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic situation on economic growth is temporary，The V -type recovery of China's economy is explaining this。but but，The economic losses that most countries have suffered may be long -term，And this is also a real risk that families living below the poverty line。In the short term，These families have to accept the reality of life and poverty of life，Some of the families have taken corresponding measures，If you sell assets，or accept the government、Help for relatives and neighbors。But in the long run，Poverty will bring permanent trauma，Such as family members' malnutrition、Damaged physical health and school -age children out of school。So，Although all warnings are related to the decade of economic prediction，But the long -term impact of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic on poverty will also help estimate economic changes。

Karas Meritage，New Crown Pneumonia's epidemic may bring seriousness to the poverty status of some countries、The long -term influence。Except Venezuela bet365 best casino games and Yemen，Other countries that have been seriously affected are in Africa。In Karas's estimation，Bangladesh、India and the Philippines have not seriously affected，Because Asia's economic growth rate is higher，Therefore, the impact of economic recession on poverty will soon be reversed。On the contrary，As Karas predicts the slowing economic growth trend of African countries，Therefore, the impact of the epidemic may last for several years。countries with higher poverty index，If Nigeria and the Congo Democratic Republic，It is expected that the total number of poor people in 2030 in 2030 will exceed 2020。

　　Assisting poor families is the top priority

Although the above poverty trend is not optimistic，but it is not impossible to change，An important experience to deal with the epidemic of new crown pneumonia is fast、Effectively provide cash assistance to poor families。Current，Some countries will have data filing of families who are eligible to accept social assistance，so as to transfer cash directly to its bank account or mobile wallet，Convenient for these families to withdraw cash in time。

For example，Pakistan has launched an emergency cash plan for EHSAAS in April 2020，It aims to bet365 live casino games provide 12 million families with about $ 75 per household cash assistance。Because Pakistan implemented a national registration mechanism，All families only need to send text messages and provide personal ID to understand whether they are eligible for assistance。According to the big data of socioeconomic and economic，The state will be on travel such as abroad、Cross -check for simple standards such as vehicle registration and mobile phone monthly bill，To determine whether it meets the conditions。Once confirmed，Each family member can use the previous ID to withdraw cash in more than 18,000 bank branches。

Other countries are also trying to improve this situation。The largest digital ID system in the world is an identity identification project carried out by the Indian ID (also known as the AADHAR)，The total number of registrations exceeds 1.2 billion。Africa is launching a digital engineering called the "Lunar Lunar Plan"，It is planned to allow all Africans to complete the registration at the lowest cost within 10 years。If the system can operate，The cost will cost up to $ 100 billion。

This poverty gap can be made up by domestic and international funds，Half of which comes from bet365 Play online games private loans。This number is only about 1%of the total expenditure ($ 11 trillion) that the people and enterprises from developed economies to protect the people and enterprises from the influence of the people in the country.，Developing countries equivalent to IMF predictions in a small part of the total cost of the epidemic (US $ 2.5 trillion)。other，The global poverty reduction process dragged down by the epidemic is not completely caused by technology or fiscal factors，There is also the reason for political will and international leadership。

　　(Niu Xiaoyu/Compilation)