Affected by Harvard Professor Graham Ellison's works，The concept of "Xiu Xidde Trap" in the international relations community has been familiar with。Ellison said in "Failure to World War I" published in 2017: "Xiu Xidde trap refers to，When a rising country threatens to replace the existing leading country, there will be an inevitable confusion。"This interpretation comes from ancient Greek historian Shu Jimadid's interpretation of the cause of war in" The History of the Berlonnenian War "，"The real reason for the inevitable war of war is the growth of Athens forces and the fear of Spads caused by it"。Specific explanation of "Xiu Xidde Trap"，Elison thinks，This has nothing to do with the motivation of the leading or rising country，The structural pressure generated from the competition of international order leadership，"This happened between Athens and Sparta in the 5th century BC，It also happened between Germany and Britain a century ago，It also occurred between the 1950s and the 1960s between the United States and the Soviet Union，Almost caused the war between the two "。It is not uncommon for the conflict of interest and strategic competition in the leading country and the rising country.，But the concept that is easy to cause controversy is the "trap": Is the outbreak of the Beroboonnie War really due to a "trap"?

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If the outbreak of the Berlonnenian war is because of a "trap"，So who is the designer of this trap? Is it Athens or Sparta?，We can speculate that，Athens hopes to provoke a war，Destroy Sparta's bet365 live casino games hegemony on the Pennina Peninsula。If it is Sparta，We can also speculate that，Sparta hopes to provoke a preventive war，Broken the opponent before getting an overwhelming advantage in Athens。Theoretically these two assumptions are possible。

Athens is the party where relative strength is constantly rising，Its safety is also guaranteed。Time is standing on the side of the Athens，Why not continue to wait for power and compare the direction that is more conducive to its own direction? From the situation at the time，Athens and Sparta are generally in a state of basic average，Nothing to defeat the other party is absolutely grasped。and，It can be seen by the foreign policy of Athens through the outbreak of the war.，It has a strong defensive color，Including the construction of the city wall、Requires to expel Corinus officials from the very dense Potidaea、Prompt Megara's embargo Act, etc.。Simply speaking，Faced with the increasing expansion of the allies，The primary task of Athens at that time was to prevent them from falling to the Berlonnenia alliance led by Spartan，instead of expanding outside。

As the league leader of the Berlonnenia alliance，Sparta has a strong army force，Maybe I want to start a precedent to combat Athens。but but，If you take a closer look at the various specific disputes that have caused the outbreak of the war，Sparta is largely dragged down by the allies。Sparta did not intervene in the dispute between the two city -states of Cosila and Corinus at the beginning，No dispute between Athens and Potidia，The protagonists of which are Athens and Colinus。Allies described a picture of Spartan a picture of Athens against weakness、Continuous expansion pictures，Affects the specific action of the Sparta people。From bet365 live casino games this perspective，The growth of the power of Athens and the challenges that may bring to Sparta，It is indeed a fundamental reason for the outbreak of the Berlonnenia war。but，These disputes are not the "trap" designed by Sparta，It is also not designed by Corinth。Whether it is Sparta or Athens，Both the main war, the main war, the Lord and the faction。Sparta before the war is about to break out，It is proposed that as long as Athens cancels the embargo on Mogala，Then war can be avoided。But，Under the incitement of Berrykley，The war is still outbreak。

Although Ellison and many scholars discuss the discussion of Xunxidd,，All uses the saying that "the real reason for inevitable war"，In fact, Xiu Xidid does not necessarily think that "war is unavoidable"。For example，In the book "The History of the Berlonnenian War" translated by He Yuanguo，There is no "inevitable" statement，Only "the real reason for the outbreak of the war" discussion。Judging from the description of the history of the entire Berlonneson war on Xunxidde，What he emphasizes，The real reason for the war is that Sparta's fear of the growth of Athens forces，Therefore, it is different from the reasons for discussion of others。This can not be concluded that the "inevitable" war of war。

To sum up，The outbreak of the Berlonnenia War，It is not caused by who designed the "trap"。The fundamental reason for the war is the change in the comparison of the strength of the two sides，The direct reason is that the conflict between the interests between the city -state in ancient Greece。

　　The concept of the "Xiu Xidide Trap" concept is relatively rough

Between the leading country and the rising country will cause conflicts around the leadership，Therefore, the relationship between the two parties enters a tension and difficult stage，This is the common Bet365 lotto review sense of international relations。So，The rise of the rising country can be said to face some "risk"，Need to deal with it carefully，But this "risk" is not the "trap" that is artificially designed and covered with。Athens and Sparta at the beginning of the war，No grasp of winning。Athens generally lived in an obvious advantage in the first stage，Only by chance, a large -scale expedition was exhausted to Sicily，This leads to the final failure。Sbbad's victory，It is due to the same mistakes without making the same error，But not because of some delicate design "trap"。"Trap" in international relations，We can understand it intentionally to induce the other party and let the other party fall into trouble，For example, Bismarck encouraged French colonial expansion after the Pu Pu war，This is a classic "trap"。

From the perspective of academic theory，If there is a "Xiu Xidide Trap"，So the logic that may be established is only，Third party deliberately induced conflicts between the leading country and the rising country，Causes two defeats to hurt，Then from it to the profit。For example，Before First World War，France definitely wants to provoke conflict between Germany and Britain，Because if Yingde's friendly relationship continues，The French and Russian Alliance may not be able to form an overwhelming advantage for Germany。but，The deterioration of British and German relations is essentially a strategic error in Germany itself，challenged the British Navy advantage，instead of the "trap" designed by France is successful。Of course，From the perspective of academic theory，"Xiu Xidde Trap" can remind the leading country and the rise of the rise not to be calculated by the third party，Fet into some conflicts that can be avoided.。

bet365 best casino games Ellissen's study of the concept of "Xiu Xidde Trap" is actually very rough。As described above，On the one hand，The concept of his "trap" is not accurate -it is neither in line with the history of the Berlonnesie War，Not your own logic。Elison simply thinks，The competition between the rising country and the leading country is a "trap"。In fact，Accurate understanding should be "risk" rather than "trap"。On the other hand，Risks that may occur between the rising country and the leading country，Ellison's research is much worse than the Power Transition theory and location reality。

The research of the theory of strength transformation must be more reasonable for the study of the relationship between the leading country and the rising country、Deep。The theory of strength transformation first illustrates the reasons for the transition between the leading country and the rising country (mainly industrialization and technological diffusion)，and indicate that the transformation of this strength may lead to conflict between the two parties，But the premise is whether the rising country is not satisfied with the existing international order。In the ancient Greek city -state，The main source of wealth is business and agriculture，Therefore, Athens Therefore, due to controlling maritime trade and accepting the tribute of the allies，becoming increasingly richer。Athens controls more city -state，can get more wealth，This natural conflict with Sparta's international order interests。but，After the industrial revolution occurs，Under a free trade international order，The international order competition between the rise and the leading country has greatly weakened，For example，British and the United States can benefit from free trade。bet365 best casino games So，The theory of strength transformation does not consider the changes in relative strength, which will definitely lead to conflict，The key is whether the two parties have fundamental contradictions around the existing international order。and，Considering the existence of nuclear weapons factor，The possibility of a large -scale war between the leading country and the rising country has basically disappeared。

In addition to the theory of strength transformation，Location realism also further explains the relationship between the leading country and the rising country。Location realism believes，The big country should first accurately understand the location of yourself，Then pursue a reasonable position。Location interests related to international order actually include two aspects: rules interest and power interests。Rules interest refers to the distribution rules of international resources，Power interest refers to the right to speak and decision -making。Since entering modern society，The rising country is a country with fast industrialization，Therefore, the rules of free trade are basically beneficial to them，There is no fundamental contradiction between the leading country。Power and interests are secondary compared to rules and interests。Considering the strength of the leading country、Allies support and the development trend of the transformation of both parties，There is no need to become a hegemony country。

Generally speaking，"Xiu Xidde Trap" is a relatively rough concept。If it is inspiring to the academic community，That is to emphasize the position conflict between the rise and the leading country，and need to be alert to the "trap" of third -party manufacturing、Strive the position conflict between the rising country and the leading country to make a profit from it。

　　(The author is a researcher at the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China、Professor of the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China)