In the special period of the current international order change，Analyze the historical characteristics of international currency changes，Future trend of exploring international currency changes，Think about the role of the RMB in international currency changes，It is profound meaning。 

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The change of international currency occurs in different historical periods，But it shows a common feature，That is national power、Path dependence and external impact。

State power refers to the formation and change of each international currency accompanied by the rise of the country and the transfer of power between the country。The Silver Age has two leading countries -Spain and the Netherlands，Two countries are also the earliest hegemony countries in the international system。During the Spanish -dominated period，Silver is mostly regarded as an ordinary product。Trade channels developed through geographical discovery，A large amount of silver in the Americas flow into Europe，greatly impacted the economic structure of Europe，Help the rise of the Spanish Empire。Silver capitalization and monetization mainly occurred in the subsequent Dutch Empire。In the 80 -year war from 1568-1648，The original weak Dutch dragged down the powerful Spanish Empire，Dutch defeating Spain is considered the victory of capital silver to the silver。The rise of the Gold -British pound bet365 best casino games is the process of Britain's replacement of the Netherlands to become the imperial imperial empire，and Gold -USD and Credit US dollars are important composition of American hegemony。With the end of World War II，United States、UK、France、Canada and other countries have proposed a plan for building a new international currency system，where，The "White Plan" in the United States and the British "Keynes Project" are particularly attractive，The United States finally replaced Britain to become the issuance of international currency and a new hegemony country。

Path dependence refers to the status of specific international currencies Once established，will produce a powerful inertia，It is not easy to change。This inertia mainly comes from the "network external nature" of international currency，When the main members of the international currency network use a certain currency，The cost of changing a member is very high。The consequence of the path dependence is that international currency changes are often lagging behind the reality of international political and economic development，It is also lagging behind the power transfer between major countries。The transition from the 19th century silver -based transition to the golden standard has gone through more than half a century of gold and silver recovery (that is, gold and silver as the same currency at the same time)。From the formal establishment of the golden standard (1816) to European countries, it is widely accepted by the Golden System (1970s)，This round of international currency changes lasted bet365 best casino games nearly half a century。The change of the pound to the dollar is also the same。When the golden standard is widely accepted by the international community，The total economic volume of the United States has been comparable to the British Qiang，1913 British GDP has only 41%of the United States，In 1926, the United States had about 45%of the world's gold supply，but，The establishment of the US dollar international currency is the Breton Forest Conference in 1944。From this observation，Historically, international currency changes take about half a century of time cycle。

Due to the existence of national power and path dependence，International currency changes reflect the characteristics of external impact power drive，And the external shock is mostly manifested as a violent conflict between the country or the economic crisis。The 80 -year war enabled the Dutch silver period to be finally established。A series of conflicts such as the naval battle and the British and French war through Spain and Britain，Britain finally established its hegemony position，The pound supported by gold has become international currency。Two World War and the Great Economic Depression between them is the most important external driving factor that international currency changes from the pound to the US dollar。 

　China's role in international currency changes 

Current，Who will be the next international currency receiver discussion and debate。where，Return to gold such as gold and other non -main authority international currencies is very high。But Gold has many defects in history as the international currency，If the output is insufficient、bet365 best casino games Unstable supply、Unexplained allocation。other，Surgery currency similar to the special withdrawal rights also has an advantage in theory，but only exist in theoretical。Breeding from the national sovereign credit or precious metal，How to obtain trust in the market is the most direct difficulty for the market，Domestic and international political resistance that required core countries to transfer currency sovereignty。The development of private digital currency brings some new ideas，But it is also facing similar difficulties existing in super sovereign currency -whether technology can gain market trust and become the source of currency credit is questioned，Monetary authorities in major countries have carried out comprehensive strict supervision of private digital currencies，One of the important considerations is to maintain national monetary sovereignty。From this speculation，The next international currency receiver may still be sovereign credit currency，A new round of international currency changes will present a feature similar to history but not exactly the same feature。

As far as the time cycle of international currency changes，A new round of productivity revolution with digital technology as the core may accelerate the adjustment of the international economic and trade structure and the changes in national strength，So as to shorten the time cycle of international currency change。Compared with several scientific and technological revolutions in history，Digital Technology Revolution has greatly improved the efficiency of economic operation，shorten the cycle of the Bet365 app download iteration of the world economic renewal，Create an opportunity to catch up for the post -developing country，Accelerate international currency changes。China is mobile payment、Digital RMB、Artificial Intelligence、5G technology、Cloud computing、Big data and other fields have been among the forefront of the world，This is the key factor in the next round of international currency changes in the next round of international currency。

Whether the speeding up international currency change is still full and accompanied by power competition and power transfer between major countries，By cause conflict or crisis? History of international currency changes，From metal currency to credit currency，Sovereign currency has completely played the role of international currency，This makes the national power attributes of international currencies stronger，that is, the sovereign currency of international currency brings huge benefits and influence to it，Main countries will compete for international currency status。In the new round of international currency change cycle，Defenders of power and interests are the United States issued US dollars，Any international currency that may replace the US dollar will be strongly suppressed in the United States。The rapid rise of China's economy has caused concerns about hegemony countries，but，China's international monetary power view and international power concept are committed to changing the historical track of international currency change，Peaceful evolution of international currency order and international order。The economic crisis or military conflict that triggers the final change of international currency is the painful memory bet365 best casino games of human history again and again，It should also be the experience and lesson of human progress。With the formation of the world economic system, the hegemonic thinking gradually formed in the Western world has continued to this day，Several international currency issuers in history are European and American countries，All created or inherited this hegemony thinking。This is the fundamental reason why the international currency order changes and the evolution of international order presents conflict，It is also a historical view that China ’s“ do n’t dominate ”,“ Community of Human Destiny ”, and“ New International Relations ”.。Essentials as American German sociologists and economic historians Andre Gunder Frank in "Silver Capital"，Hundreds of years at the beginning of the formation of the modern world system (1400-1800)，China in the East has always been the center of the world economy，But it is not a hegemony that is plundered everywhere，In this China -centric、In a tolerance world system，Instead, it is European and American countries that have obtained the development bonus from China，From the interaction with the East and the plunder of the world,，accumulated primitive wealth，Building the world hegemony。Return to a more inclusive Oriental Model may be the future path of peaceful evolution in international order。

(Author Unit: The School of Management of Zhou Enlai Government Management of Nankai University)