Current,A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reforms represented by artificial intelligence are raised,With the accumulation of big data、Announcement of theoretical algorithm、Improving computing power and the improvement of network infrastructure,Technical progress entered a new stage,Intelligentization has become an important direction for technology and industrial development。Automation driven by artificial intelligence, while converting technological progress into higher productivity and economic growth momentum,It also has a profound impact on the labor market,Advances for automation technology has become an important factor affecting changes in global employment structure。Many studies display,Workers engaged in "conventional" positions and low skills are the greatest influenced by technological progress。Automation may exacerbate unemployment、Job polarization and income inequality,Its prominent consequences are that the proportion of positions is increasingly gathered at the top and bottom of the skills and income distribution,The proportion of employment in intermediate skills declines sharply。
International Robotics Federation data show,The application volume of mainland robots in my country has quickly climbed from 37,000 units in 2009 to 780,000 units in 2019,In 2019, my country's newly installed installation volume is 140,500 units,It accounts for nearly 40%of the world's new total total,This means that the number of robots owned by employees per 1,000 manufacturing industry in my country has exceeded English、Law and other developed countries。my country as the largest developing country,"Employment is the largest people'Bet365 app download s livelihood",The impact of automated technology such as robots and other automated technology on my country's labor market is an important academic and policy topic,In -depth research on this for long -term stability to maintain employment rate、It is important to prevent income from increasing income。
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Facing the rapid development of automation technology,The significant growth of industrial robotics in the past ten years has caused concerns that workers are widely replaced by smart machines。To analyze the strong and weak influence of my country's workers due to the progress of automation technology,According to the latest approach of existing literature,The author divides the occupation of China's labor age population in five categories according to the difficulty of being automated by automation: unconventional knowledge、Conventional knowledge work、Unconventional operating work、Conventional operating work and non -employed people。
Based on the above -mentioned employment type division,I used the national population census and 1%population sample survey data from 1990-2015,Examine the dynamic change of the employment structure of my country。Results show,The proportion of employment in conventional operating work accounted for significantly from 57%to 32%,Conventional knowledge work accounts for increased from 8%to 19%,The proportion of non -employed people has increased from 16%to 31%,and unconventional operating working share is very small。This result indicates,In the process of technical changes,The laborer squeezed out of conventional operating work has not entered a large number of unconventional tasks that cannot be easily replaced by automation technology,Instead, it mainly enters the non -employed group and transformed into a conventional knowledge position。Theoretically,If the proportion of non -employed groups increases mainly due to the extension Bet365 lotto review of the time for the labor age population or increased, the proportion of retirement is rising,These factors are increasing human capital or enjoying leisure,Social problems that may bring are not big。But statistical results show,The main reasons for the continuous increase in the proportion of non -employed people are from factors from school and retirement,Including unemployment or withdrawing from the labor market due to unable to find a suitable job,The employment structure caused by the same technological progress has a close relationship with the workers' skills。
From 1990 to 2015, the trend of employment structure in my country,my country's employment structure responds to future technological progress, there is still a lot of optimization space。In 25 years of the same period,The United States has experienced the decline in the proportion of employment and employment in general work.。For details,,Conventional intellectual work employment proportion of employment from 19.6%to 16.1%,Conventional operating job employment proportion decreases from 21.0%to 15.1%。At the same time,Unconventional Intellectual work Employment proportion increases from 24.7%to 28.2%,Unconventional operating jobs increased from 9.6%to 12.3%,The proportion of non -employed people also increased from 25.2%to 28.3%。Compared with the United States,my country's routine work employment accounts for high,Unconventional job employment proportion is in a stagnation state for a long time。This kind of employment structure is unfavorable to technical progress represented by robots and artificial intelligence in my country's labor market。
Robot application affects labor market structure
Technical progress is a connotation concept,Among them, the robot's replacement of workers in the manufacturing industry has attracted widespread attention。2009-2019,my country's industrial robot application volume will increase at a rate of 36%an annual average speed,Bet365 lotto review and become the largest country in robotics in 2016。The rapid growth of robot application volume is being affected by an increasingly impact on my country's labor market。
Research on economic theory shows,Automation technologies such as robots have two opposite effects on employment。The alternative effect of the workers directly replaced the workers in certain jobs,and improve production efficiency in technological progress,Production rate effect that leads to rising demand for workers。The productivity effect is mainly composed of two aspects,First, the production cost decreases and product quality increase after applying robots,Therefore, the market size of the industry expands,The demand for labor that has not been replaced or complementary to the robot increases。Second, there is a productivity overflow effect between the industry and the complementary industry of the robot,Therefore, the industry may also have a decline in costs、output expansion,Then the demand for labor is rising。So,The balanced effect of robots on employment depends on who is dominated by alternative effects and productivity effects。
Use the industry differences before the laborers market in various countries in my country,Combining technical feasibility changes in application robots in various industries,We evaluated the employment of the robot to the land -level workers at the city、Impact of Wages and Injustice。Results show,2009-2017,Robotic stirring effect on my country's employment overall,But the substitution effect of the robot has increased year by year with technological progress,And the negative impact on the wages of the workers has already appeared in the manufacturing industry。other,The impact of the robot on the service industry is completely reflected in the employment pull of the productive service industry of the complementary industry。The employment and salary effect of the robot has bet365 best casino games obvious heterogeneity in different labor groups,This is related to the degree of replacement of different groups and the elasticity of their labor supply。Take a comprehensive,The negative impact of low -income level groups are more serious; estimates for inequality in the internal income of the city,Robot applications significantly expand the income gap in the city。
From the long term,The growth of robot application volume has important value for alleviating my country's insufficient labor supply in the context of aging,It is important for improving labor productivity。But in the short term,Young people、Low education level Workers face more intense employment shocks,Women and migrants are suffering more serious wage loss。For these lower income people,The rapid growth of robotic applications on them is more likely to exacerbate income inequality。So,Need to distinguish different labor groups,Policy to deal with technological progress in a targeted manner。
Actively cope with "technical unemployment"
Technological progress has brought unlimited opportunities to the transformation and development of our country,At the same time, it also brings challenges。In the process of accelerating the economic acceleration of our country,A negative impact of automated technologies such as robotics to workers,You can start from the following three aspects。
First,Promote the development of educational content and methods that are more adapted to the requirements of automated technology changes,Enhance the complementarity of workers' skills and robots。On the one hand,The robot has begun to produce artificial alternatives,Strengthening skill training for higher alternative workers is of great significance for re -employment。For this,The government needs to vigorously develop vocational education,Subsidies through fiscal subsidies、Tax reduction and other methods to mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises bet365 live casino games to carry out skill training,Make the career's career conversion process more smooth and smooth。On the other hand,Since automation technology is accelerating maturity,,Young people who enter the labor market in the future will face more severe "technical unemployment" risk。From this perspective,R & D required for robot applications、Maintenance skills,Or interpersonal communication and innovation capabilities that are difficult for robots to replace,All should be the focus of school education。
2,Improve relevant financial and tax social security policies,Enhance the protection of low -income people through government intervention,At the same time,Improve the market competition mechanism,Promoting work incentives for high -income people。On the one hand,To balance the impact differences on different people,For income gaps that may be widened,Adjust the second distribution of taxation and social security。For this,It should further expand the coverage of social security,Reinforcement work,and pay special attention to the key areas and key groups that are susceptible to technological progress。On the other hand,To stimulate the enterprise's innovative vitality through tax cuts,Reduce corporate burden,Promote the main body of the development of automation technology,Encourage it to expand the scale through transformation and upgrading to drive more and more high -quality employment。
third,Flexible consideration of labor market policies to cope with short -term employment alternative risks,Promote the continuousization of talent dividends,Effectively promote high -quality economic development。With the further promotion of robot applications,The scale of employment alternative will also gradually increase,Differentiated formulation of labor market policy。In the short term,You can reduce the work hours、Promoting measures such as flexible employment alleviate the negative effects of unemployment Bet365 app download on workers and their families。Long -term,It is necessary to break the household registration system and ownership obstacles that restrict the free flow of labor,Continuously promoting the fairness of educational resources,Continuously promoting the fairness of educational resources,For economic innovation、Social development provides sustainable talent dividends,To ensure that China has gained talents and technical leadership in the fourth industrial revolution wave。
(Author Unit: School of Labor and Personnel, Renmin University of China)
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