Since Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tersky put forward the prospects theory in 1979，Research on decision -making has been developed greatly。For a long time，Researchers generally use descriptive decision -making paradigms，To explore the rules of decision -making。This paradigm usually presents different options at the same time to participants，These options will provide clear probability and results information，Need to make a choice from the participants。The research results based on this descriptive paradigm constitute the basis of contemporary decision -making theory (especially the theory of prospects)。

But in daily life，Many options do not have a clear probability and description of results information，People need to make decisions more based on their past experience。

Ralph Hertwig et al. In 2004, the individual did not know the probability and results information in 2004，The estimated decisions need to be made based on your own experience.，Decisions that provide clear probability and results information in advance as descriptive decision。Since then，Many researchers have begun to turn their attention to the study of empirical decisions。

Experienced decisions are different from descriptive decisions in many ways。Li Hong and others summarized，Experienced decision -making has three characteristics: First, the individual does not know the probability and results information bet365 Play online games in advance，Incomplete information; the second is that individuals need sampling to obtain information about decision -making，is experience dependencies; third, the entire decision -making process needs to be repeated multiple times，Repeat dynamics。Research method on experience decision -making，So far there are a total of three research paradigms。First is a complete feedback。Participants need to click on one of the two buttons to make a choice，After choosing to complete，The result information of the corresponding results of the two buttons will be presented at the same time。The second is part of the feedback formula。Like the full feedback paradigm, you need to click the button to make a selection，However, after the selection is completed, only the result information corresponding to the button selected by the participants。Three is the sampling paradigm。Participants need to click the button as many times as possible，To understand the results information corresponding to each button，Then complete the formal decision again。

More and more research indicates，Different decision -making process and descriptive decision -making due to empirical decision -making，There is a "gap" (gap) between the two。For example，Greg Barron and Ido EREV provided participants with such a decision -making question: Option A is 100%probability of 3 points，Options B is the probability of 80%to get 4 points，The probability of 20%gets 0 points。Let the participants click the button corresponding to the two options to make a selection，Repeat 400 times，Feedback of Bet365 lotto review the selection result after each selection is completed。The final accumulated results were converted into money and paid to the participants。If according to the research by Kanman and others，Due to risk avoidance，Participants should choose more secure options in all income situations。but，Barron and Irev discovered，When the participants make a choice based on experience，They are more inclined to choose risk options。This difference between descriptive decision -making and empirical decisions involved in risk preferences，Called "Description-Experience-EXPERIENCE GAP，D-E gap。

There are three possible explanations for the cause of D-E gap。The first explanation is the decision maker underestimated the small probability event。According to the perspective of accumulated prospects，Excessive weighted on small probability events in the risk selection behavior。On the contrary，In experience -based decision -making tasks，The weight of the small probability event will be underestimated。Specifically，Analysis of the selection result indicates，In descriptive decision -making tasks，People's behavior tends to overestimate small probability events，In the experience -based decision -making task，People's behavior tends to underestimate the small probability event。As described above，In described tasks，Most participants (64%) prefer medium expectations (such as 100%，3 points) The options of the safety results，instead of a small probability event that does not expect but does not want to occur (such as 80%，4 points; 20%，0 points) options; however，They show the opposite bet365 live casino games mode in experience -based decision -making tasks (12%chose the Options for Options)。

The second explanation is sample deviation。Sample deviation refers to the individual tendency to extract less samples to make decisions。For example，In the study by Hitwich and others，The average number of samples of each option under the experience conditions of the experience conditions is 7.5 times，Although they can draw the samples as much as possible。So the formal choice of most people is made based on a small sample，and the number of small probability events contained in this small sample is less than its objective probability。In view of these results and similar discoveries，Some researchers proposed that the D-E gap is just a sampling error plus the prospect theory。This indicates that no matter what kind of information presentation method is used，When people use the same information to make their decision，Individuals will make the same choice。Studies indicate，In empirical decision -making，When the participants draw more representative samples， D-E gap will decrease。But the researcher found，Even if the individual extracts a large number of representative samples，The gap is reduced，This gap does not disappear。So the sampling deviation cannot fully explain this "gap"。

The third explanation is the recent cause effect。Recent causes refer to the tendency to pay attention to the recent events，Decision makers are more likely to think of those samples recently extracted。Because the small probability event is low in the latest samples，Therefore, decision makers may underestimate bet365 Play online games the weight of these events when choosing a choice。Some studies found，The second half of the sample extracted by the participants can predict its formal selection than the first half。

D-E gap research is developing in many hopeful directions。First，Experienced decision -making requires decision makers to explore unknown results in front of formal decisions。This means，A person’s risk appetite may not only be manifested in his formal decision，Even in his early search process, it has been manifested。So research on experience decision -making in the future，It should be committed to exploring the sample mode of decision makers，and the correlation of the sampling strategy and decision behavior，Because of the existing research on decision -making, to a large extent, it does not consider the process of search maker information search。

Next，Another aspect that needs attention is the external environment of the decision option itself and the external environment of decision -making。On the one hand，The choice of many real worlds contains more than two options，and many options have many possible results; on the other hand，In the early stage of information search and decision -making is often limited by time，Decision makers must understand the problem according to the decision -making expectations before the test，Usually reduce search for improving efficiency。

Another important problem is the combination of descriptive information and empirical information。When people make a choice，Sometimes I like to obtain experience and description information at the same time。Take risk warnings Bet365 app download in social life as an example，These risk warnings generally include descriptive information of numbers or graphics -for example，About health warnings that smoke may cause lung cancer，or driving violations will lead to a warning of traffic accidents。But when people are preparing to engage in these risk activities，It is not necessarily determined whether to do it completely based on descriptive information，Because people receive these descriptive warning information，Maybe I have experienced the experience of related dangerous behaviors，For example, smoking all year round but not suffering from diseases，Multiple driving violations but no traffic accident。So how descriptive information affects the future behavior of the individual，May depend on their past and recent experiences。

Research on the intricate interaction between descriptive information and empirical information，It can better understand why the danger warnings in real life often provide a key idea for low efficiency。So in future research，The descriptive information of these risk issues and empirical information are cleverly combined in the laboratory，To explore people’s decision -making rules，It may more effectively convey the risk information of these incidents itself，to help people make decisions more rationally。

In daily life, the decision -making situation that requires individuals based on experience is endless，Study on empirical decision -making not only has theoretical importance，And has important practical significance。More researchers need to pay attention to empirical decisions in the future，To continuously improve Bet365 lotto review and develop decision -making theory。

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