The swans that ancient Europeans came into contact with before the 17th century have always been white，Therefore, "Fan Swan is white" was considered a solid fact at the time。Until the 17th century Europeans arrived in Australia，They found that the local black swan exists in the local area。In philosophy，"Black Swan" has become a cit between induction issues and 错，It aims to point out no matter how delicate evidence and experience in the past，It is still unable to get a certain knowledge，so as to accurately predict the future。

Since the second half of the 20th century，With the rapid progress of science and technology and the in -depth development of globalization，Gradually occur a class of accidents。For example，"Chel Nobel Incident"、Financial crisis, etc.。These incidents have a certain sudden，It is difficult for people to expect their appearance before it happens，Once it happens，will be for a region、A country or even the world has a profound impact。In recent years，This kind of rare、Affected major emergencies are called black swan incidents。This extension usage is inherited from its original bet365 best casino games intention，But its popularity is largely due to risk management experts、Writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "Black Swan"。Current，Black Swan incident has become the media、Academic texts and even formal official documents used to refer to a certain type of risk of terms。

From the perspective of risk prevention，Because the black swan incident is little precedent、Unpredictable，This will cause people to have a serious cognitive partial leaning。The Black Swan Incident in history，Many exactly because related managers and even experts in related fields have formed an error cognition at that time，Unable to control risks，or predict its impact in the early days of the event，Eventually the event becomes a crisis。So，To prevent the risk of black swan，It is necessary to know what people generally exist in this kind of risk，and "scope insensitivity" is the most prominent one of them。

How long does college students are willing to spend a course for a course? How much environmental protection expenses are willing to pay for urban residents to pay for the conservation of suburban vegetation?。For example，Under the circumstance where other conditions are unchanged，The more important to the course，The longer the study time, the larger the area of ​​the suburban vegetation，The higher the cost of environmental protection; the more patients with bet365 Play online games a disease, the more，The more medical research donations should be more。But，Psychologists discovered，In some cases，People are extremely sensitive to the scope and sizes of these characteristic values ​​during assessing and decision -making。In a psychological study，A group of participants were asked，How much is they willing to spend to avoid the death of 2,000 migratory birds caused by an environmental pollution incident。The other two groups of participants also face the same problem，But the dead migratory birds are 20,000 and 2000,000, respectively。Although the number of migratory birds that needs to be saved is huge，But the average amount that the three groups are willing to pay are around $ 80。Of course，Not all evaluations and decisions will appear this kind of "scopeless" cognitive leaning。For example，College students will be very sensitive to the importance of curriculum (especially related to performance points)。

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman pointed out，The reason why the range is not sensitive is that people do not conduct purely rational and objective utility calculations when evaluating and deciding，Instead, it is through the active activity of the scene、The representative shortcuts of the event to make judgments and decisions，This is facing strange problems、Difficulties or problems that are difficult to Bet365 lotto review calculate objectively, especially prominent。So，When experimental participants consider rescue migratory birds，They are likely to imagine that an environment is contaminated、Migratory birds are the miserable scene of death，Then think about how much is you willing to spend in order to avoid this bad scene。In this cognitive process，The number of migratory birds is not important，Naturally not sensitive。

The awareness of the risk of black swan is the inaccurate disaster area that is not sensitive。When people face a risk decision，Black Swan risk is easily undervalued。I have not experienced potential risks and crises，It is not possible to form a rich and vivid representation in the mind，So it is just the possibility of "theoretical"。On the contrary，The benefits of adventure are rich and vivid。This can explain the drug application case of "reaction stop event".，and the loose loan behavior of US financial institutions in the early 21st century: The effect of "reaction stop" is immediate、Loose loan can get considerable benefits in the short term。As for a large number of malformed babies and far -reaching subprime crisis，It becomes the evil fruit brought by this cognitive bias。

other，In decision -making involved in the risk of black swan，"Time scale" is the feature value that should be considered in key considerations，Bet365 lotto review But this is also a scope of unsightly in the hardest hit area。Generally speaking，Risk management experts believe that you can choose or let go of an adventure (such as excess carbon emissions、Large -scale application of nuclear energy)，It is the possibility of judging its crisis very small，Just under the appropriate monitoring，Risk probability is within the scope of "neglected"。but，Black Swan Risks，The so -called "risk subject" is not necessarily a risk management expert and a person of its contemporaries，And they can be their descendants and even the entire human ethnic group。From the perspective of these risk subjects that do not have a clear life period，Risk management experts based on their own experience in just decades、Knowledge and evidence，Sometimes it is not enough to make a sufficient accurate understanding and prediction of the potential crisis。The so -called "negligible" here may have great bias，Experts will inevitably fall into a trap that is not sensitive。or，The inherent characteristics of the risk of black swan and the cognitive limitations of human beings，There is no suitable time scale for "future"、Sensitive evaluation and decision -making。

From the historical perspective，Human beings have been fighting various risks，An accident encountered from the cope with the hunting collection、Winds bet365 live casino games and waves of far -voyage trade、Natural disasters in the farming era，Until the birth of probability theory and the theory of risk management theory，Humans have been overcome and respond to various risks。pragmatic，Black Swan risk is the most wild、The most difficult type of tame，But this does not mean that humans have no way to do this。At least，I can recognize that the important cognitive partial leaning of the scope is not sensitive，is the first step of the problem。More importantly，This prompts us to consider how to manage the risk of black swan from two aspects。It one，It is difficult to portray the probability of the risk of black swans，Its impact is difficult to represent，Evaluation and prevention of it is unsuitable in a sense。So，major risk decisions that bring potential consequences，Should be cautious and cautious。Its two，As the sociologist Ulrich Beck said，The risk structure of today's society is gradually evolving from the dominance of natural risks.。So，It should be focused on the human risk formation mechanism，To organize management、Policy、The source of the risk of black swan as much as possible。

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(Author Unit: School of Philosophy and Social Development of Overseas Chinese University)