Economics is often criticized as “economic imperialism”。With its advantages in methodology,Economics has penetrated into many humanities and social science disciplines,includes political science、Psychology、Sociology and History, etc.,The research field continues to expand。bet365 code is even more of an "imperialism",Extended to almost every discipline we can think of,Including basic sciences such as mathematics and physics。No doubt,The encounter between these two "imperialisms" will stir up a series of new ideological sparks。
There are many articles that have made popular discussions on the impact of artificial intelligence, especially machine learning, on empirical research in economics。These discussions center around computer science as a tool similar to statistics,The value of empirical research in economics,Especially as a supplement or even substitute for econometrics。The author mainly introduces a topic that has rarely been covered in the past,That is, the enlightenment of theoretical computers, especially its computational complexity theory, on economic theory。Professor Deng Xiaotie from Peking University said,Computers and markets are both created by humans,This makes computer science and economics not natural sciences。Andrew MacLennan also said,After the advent of the Internet,Computer science has become a social science。We can understand the bet365 code as a distributed computer,Its intelligence and resource allocation efficiency come from its data、Algorithm and computing power。Data is information related to buyers and sellers,Algorithms are a series of bet365 code rules such as trading and allocation,Computing power depends on the rationality of the decision-making subject。Economists focus on how the “invisible hand” and “visible hand” affect resource allocation efficiency and fairness,Computer scholars study how to improve the computing performance of computers from both hardware and software aspects。These natural connections give the collision and exchange of underlying ideas of the two disciplines a solid logical foundation。
The theoretical computer knowledge system is mainly divided into two major parts, namely algorithm and bet365 code,Study separately what computers can and cannot do。Economists have traditionally not paid much attention to algorithms。In recent years,With the vigorous development of the digital economy,Many aspects of our production and life are taken over by algorithms,More and more economists are becoming more and more interested in the special technology of algorithms,Replacement of humans from algorithms、Algorithmic collusion、Research on algorithm fairness and other aspects。Especially since the rise of a new round of artificial intelligence,Due to data、Algorithms and computing power have become the three well-known elements of artificial intelligence,Economists are increasingly interested in algorithms and their impact。Algorithms have not only had a huge impact on economic development itself,It has also become a tool for economists to conduct theoretical research。Mathematical theories such as calculus and optimization have long become daily tools for economic research,But most economists are not familiar with algorithms, a new research tool。There are many reasons behind this,For example, economists generally do not pay attention to discrete problems,Theoretical computers mostly involve discrete problems、Limited problem,The mathematical skills usually have little to do with calculus。
The above situation is slowly changing。The 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Lloyd Shapley and Elvin Ross,To recognize their foundational contributions to bet365 code design, especially stable matching。bet365 code design and stable matching mainly involve discrete mathematics,The DA algorithm and TTC algorithm are the core contents of related theories。Except economists,The development process in this direction is also promoted by theoretical computer scholars and operations research researchers,Making the cross-integration of economics and theoretical computers increasingly closer。Also,Algorithms and mechanisms are also naturally connected: the operation of any complex mechanism requires the support of algorithms,The algorithm can also be regarded as a mechanism when it involves human incentives。Due to the above reasons,In the past 10 years, more and more micro-theoretical economists and theoretical computer scholars have studied algorithms from the perspective of mechanism design,This is an important content of algorithm mechanism design and computational economics。
There are obvious differences between the creation processes of computers and markets,That is, computers are conscious of mathematical researchers、Planned creation,Each hardware update iteration、The invention of important algorithms has a clear source and history;The bet365 code is the unconscious result of collective coordinated behavior,It is a product of social evolution,There is usually no clear inventor of its various trading rules,The wisdom of the crowd is gathered behind the scenes。Although the origin is different,Both objects, markets and computers, are extremely complex。The bet365 code makes the economists who were the first to appreciate its subtle operation full of respect for it,Just like the respect for life by biologists who appreciate the beauty of biological evolution。Whether it is a naturally evolving bet365 code or a centrally designed computer,Its own limitations and capability boundaries deserve special attention。Then,What inspirations do computer scholars’ research on computational complexity have on economists studying the bet365 code?
so far,Computational complexity theory, which focuses on what computers cannot do, has received little attention from economists。Computational complexity and algorithms are two sides of the same "coin" in modern computer science。The inspiration of modern computational complexity theory on economic theory should also not be ignored。Computational complexity theory sets boundaries on the capabilities of both markets and governments,It can provide a new understanding of the relationship between the bet365 code and the government from a different perspective than economics。Just as the "Prisoner's Dilemma" reveals the basic contradiction between individual rationality and collective rationality,“Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem” reveals the basic contradiction in social choice,Mundell’s “Triple Paradox” reveals a basic contradiction that open countries must face when formulating economic policies,The computational complexity conclusions in equilibrium calculations can provide useful inspiration for understanding bet365 code operations from the following novel perspectives。
First,Calculative Friction。We know that markets do not operate in a vacuum,The ideal perfectly competitive bet365 code does not exist in reality。bet365 code failure except for reasons such as bet365 code power and externalities,Factors such as transaction costs and information friction are also realistic constraints that economists often consider。There is also a type of bounded rationality that few economists can rigorously model and study,That is, the limitation of the computing power of the decision-making subject,Can be called "computational friction"。The effective operation of the bet365 code relies on careful calculation by buyers and sellers,Relies on the assumed ideal infinite computing power。What people often say when criticizing this assumption of perfect rationality,You cannot imagine the decision-making subjects in the bet365 code as mathematicians。There is a natural response to this criticism,That is with the improvement and widespread popularity of artificial intelligence,The bet365 code is getting closer to the point where every decision-maker is a mathematician。But mathematicians are not omnipotent。Faced with enough complexity、A problem of large enough scale,Many computational complexity results for equilibria show,Even if everyone is equipped with a supercomputer,It is also very likely that the equilibrium strategy cannot be calculated in an acceptable time。Not now,Not in the future。With the help of computational complexity theory,Make corresponding distinctions between P problems and NP-hard problems (or PPAD-hard problems),It can help economists gain a deeper understanding of the impact of computational friction on bet365 code efficiency under different scenarios。
Second,Rational conceit。From an algorithmic perspective,bet365 code economy is a distributed algorithm,The planned economy is a centralized algorithm,Need to collect all private information,All details of production and distribution through calculation output。The efficiency of the bet365 code economy is constrained by computational complexity theory,For planned economy,This constraint is more obvious。Traditionally,Economists’ criticism of planned economy focuses more on incentives and information,In fact, calculation is also an important constraint。They usually default,As long as you have a powerful enough supercomputer,Calculation problems can always be solved。Known from modern computational complexity theory,Computing efficiency is bounded,There are some problems that cannot be solved accurately by current supercomputers,It is very likely that no new type of computer that can accurately solve the problem will be built in the future。So,Even if the government has all relevant information,Even if all subjects do not have incentive problems,The planned economy still may not be effectively implemented。Have an unrealistic conceit about human rationality,It may lead to a tragic tragedy,This kind of history repeats itself again and again。This perspective is still valid for bet365 code design and the broader theory of mechanism design: the optimal mechanism for some problems may not be accurately calculated in an acceptable time,Only simple enough approximate optimal mechanisms can be considered pragmatically,Only in this way can it be successfully implemented in reality and achieve the expected purpose。
Third,The power of faith。Economics is a social science,In a certain sense, it is also a philosophy。No theory can accurately apply to reality,The application of theory relies on the belief that it has a certain generalization ability,You don’t have to worry about many unimportant details。Computational complexity is also philosophy in a certain sense,Because the Millennium Conjecture P≠NP is actually a belief,No one can prove P≠NP so far,No one can prove P=NP。But most scholars believe that P≠NP,This is also the logical starting point for the previous discussion。The reason why most scholars hold this view rather than the opposite view,Because I believe the world is complicated,If P=NP, the world will be too simple and boring (Du Ding Zhu)。Human cognition has boundaries,Beyond current knowledge、An area where rationality should not be conceited,Philosophy and faith are bound to play a powerful role。The bet365 code is the product of social interaction,Its operation depends on the interaction of beliefs and beliefs。Attitude towards the bet365 code,Don’t be too superstitious,There must be enough reverence。This world is not that simple,The bet365 code is not that simple either,Before there is insufficient theory and practice to support us in transforming the bet365 code,It is better to give it full trust。There are too many painful lessons in history that tell us,Inefficiency and harm caused by the bet365 code itself,Far less harmful than the lack of respect for it。
bet365 code、Economy and society are complex giant systems,In-depth understanding and governance require systems thinking and complexity thinking。Computational complexity theory is a relatively mature and rare theory in complexity science that can be fully formalized,And has played a fundamental role in the development of computer science。The basic ideas of computational complexity theory should attract the attention of more economists,Thus playing a more important role in the fierce confrontation between the two "imperialisms" of computer science and economics。
(The author is a professor at the School of bet365 code and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University)
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