Current period，Grain security has become a hot topic for global attention。Research and analyze the current world grain supply and demand pattern，Accurately judge the world of food security，It is conducive to our country to make reasonable food management decisions，Eliminate people's concerns about domestic and foreign food security。

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From the perspective of globally，The current global food supply and demand is basically balanced，But there are also local imbalance problems。First，Global grain output creates the highest level of history。As a ration，The annual output of wheat and rice is not much different，The average annual growth rate is maintained at a level of 2.3%。Generally speaking，The annual growth rate of global grain production has reached 2.2%since 1961，wheat、rice、The annual output of the four grains of corn and soybeans has been maintained at 3 billion tons。

Next，Insufficient support for food consumption power。Examine the food consumption since 2000，You can see two rigid support: First, the rapid economic growth of emerging developing countries，People’s food consumption increases rapidly，Especially the rise in demand for meat and fish, resulting in the increase in feed consumption by nearly 6%per year; second, high oil prices，This is converted to ethanol for corn and sugarcane to ethanol、Vegetable oil for the production of biological diesel provides strong stimuli。But，Whether it is now，Still the next Bet365 app download ten years，These two rigid factors are relatively weak，I can't find an important factor that supports the growth of global food demand。On the one hand，With the increase in income，Direct food consumption shows a significant decline。On the other hand，The per capita consumption of the main agricultural products of most emerging countries is close to saturation。For example, China's current consumption of vegetable oil tends to be saturated，The growth rate of meat demand is also slowing。At the same time，Global economic recovery is generally slow，The industrial consumption of food will be substantially affected。

again，Urban supply and demand out of local area。For example，The main contradiction faced after World War II is the problem of excess grain。But，More problems faced by more places are insufficient food: South Africa, Sahara, is still the area with the highest food insufficient rate of food，Grain security problems in South Asia and North Africa have not been substantially improved。

Global food inventory remains a higher level，But deducting Chinese inventory continues to decline。In the past 20 years，The average consumption ratio of corn inventory is 22 %，Soybean Bet365 app download Inventory Consumption ratio is 25 % average，The inventory of wheat consumption ratio is 30 % average。Where，Wheat inventory consumption has been maintained at 38%in recent years，The highest level in 20 years。According to the division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations，Grain inventory consumption ratio is more than 17% as safe，Below 17%is considered unsafe，Below 14%is regarded as a state of food emergency。If you only look at the above data，World Grain Inventory Consumption Comparison Still remained at an acceptable level。What needs to be pointed out is，China has a pivotal position in the total amount of the global food period in the global food period。Chinese wheat inventory in the past 3 years accounts for about 50%of global inventory，rice inventory accounts for about 67%of global inventory，corn inventory accounts for about 65%global inventory。This，Deducting Chinese food inventory，Global Wheat、rice、The inventory consumption ratio of corn and soybeans is about 18%、11%、9%and 22%。

Grain prices are still rising，The actual price shows a downward trend。For the past 20 years，Apart from the average annual growth rate of wheat prices to 0.21%，The average annual growth rate of the other three kinds of food is 0.3%。If the inflation factors are deducted，The actual price of the food overall downward，And it can be estimated。The main reason is that it is slightly greater than the demand。Take a comprehensive，In the future for a while，Without a large negative external impact，Grain prices will basically stabilize at the current level，The actual price tends to decrease。

Although the epidemic of new crown pneumonia brings short -term disturbances，But in the long run, the fundamentals of food supply and demand will not change。In the case of stagnation or even negative growth in the global economy，Grain demand will also lose the important support of income growth。At the same time，Petroleum prices decrease significantly，The company does not have the motivation to turn corn into ethanol，Demand demand for deep processing of corn becomes weakened，The price of corn will have a significant impact on the price of soybean -related products and bet365 live casino games the price of downstream animal products。Of course，The epidemic will also bring great uncertainty to the food market。For example，Food Lack of Price Elasticity，Circulation and trade may be affected by the epidemic，Therefore, there is a possibility that the food price is speculated in the short term。But looking at it for a long time，Grain prices continue to rise significantly, which is a small probability event。

　　my country's grain inventory high -level operation

Generally speaking，my country has always attached importance to grain production，Grain output for 5 consecutive years is more than 650 million tons。2019 reached 660 million tons，Create the highest level of history，"Sixteen Lianfeng Feng"。

Stable output of rations，rice inventory is rich enough。Wheat output is stable at 130 million tons of year。Wheat imports are relatively small，an average of about 3 million tons per year，This part of imported wheat or directly used as feed，or as a flour to improve the quality of flour。rice output has returned from 2011 to 200 million tons，Keep it at 210 million tons。You need to pay attention to two aspects，First, due to the increase in income stable，People spend their ration consumption decline; second, due to the minimum purchase price support policy stimulate rice planting，rice accumulation into a relatively large period of inventory，At present, rice Bet365 app download Inventory Consumption ratio exceeds 80%。

The yield of corn is maintained at an average annual level of 250 million tons，2015 once reached 265 million tons。Starting in 2016，The national corn planting area in the "sickle bent" area is reduced，Push corn deep processing at the same time，To achieve bet365 Play online games destocking。At the end of 2019，Corn inventory is still 120 million tons。Due to the influence of African swine fever，Feed food consumption has been suppressed。Considering that there are 70 million deep processing capacity in China，The corn market can enter or retreat，The adjustment space is relatively large。

Soybean has maintained a higher import amount，accounting for about 60%of global soybean imports。Soybean imports are not only to meet the growing demand for vegetable oil in China，accounting for about 60%of global soybean imports。Current，China has become the world's largest animal protein importing country。Due to the increase in meat demand，In addition to the influence of African swine fever，Stimulate the import of animal products，2019 my country's pork imports account for 27%of global imports，Beef imports account for 21%of global imports。other，There are a lot of aquatic products and milk imports，All meet the demand for domestic animal protein。From the long term，China will continue to expand animal protein imports。

　Accelerate domestic agricultural transformation and upgrade

Under the global food supply and demand pattern，Combined with the current new crown pneumonia epidemic，We can use the window period with relatively stable global food prices，Accelerate domestic agricultural transformation and upgrade。At the same time，Promote higher -level agriculture open to the public，Properly release grain inventory，Ensure that domestic and international food supply chain continues to run smoothly，Combining this crisis，Leading global economic cooperation under the community of human destiny。

First，Always adhere to the bottom line of food bet365 Play online games safety。The core of China's food safety is ration safety，Need to mobilize farmers and main production areas to actively grasp domestic ration production。

2，Exit grain with rhythm，contribute to the stability of the global grain market。At present, it is mainly affected by the export of the new crown pneumonia.，These varieties are exactly the current occurrence of phased confession in my country is greater than seeking、Variety with sufficient inventory。Appropriate export of rice is conducive to stabilizing global rice prices，Play stabilizer for Asian rice production and consumption。

third，Firmly developing high value -added agricultural products。my country needs to further improve the agricultural support and protection system，Relying on technology and organization innovation，Develop high value -added agricultural products，Improve the competitiveness of agricultural products，Gradually promote the realization of agricultural modernization。

Fourth，To adapt and properly handle the fluctuation operation of the grain market。China has integrated into the global economy，The domestic agricultural product market is also increasing into the global market。The international market fluctuations will inevitably pass trade、Futures Market and FDI and other channels affect the domestic market。In this context，On the one hand，We need to strengthen the judgment of the long -term trend of the international market，Give forward -looking policy management; on the other hand，Need to gradually increase cognition，Under the conditions of market economy conditions, the price of commodities fluctuations are simply normal，Properly increase the government's tolerance bet365 live casino games for the price fluctuation range，Avoid blind adoption of administrative intervention。

　　(The author is a professor at the School of Agricultural and Rural Development of Renmin University of China)