Nearly half a century，The development of quantitative Bet365 app download in sociology is remarkable，Making important contributions to the advancement of sociology and social governance。Especially，With the further maturity of household survey methods and the accumulation of large-scale high-quality sampling survey data for many years，Statistical regression analysis using individual-level survey data，has gradually become the mainstream model of quantitative Bet365 app download in sociology，And provides an important step and carrier for talent cultivation and paradigm improvement in this field。But with the continuous improvement of quantitative Bet365 app download methods and the increasing expansion of Bet365 app download objects，This model also unknowingly weakens quantitative workers’ focus on macro phenomena、A keen sense for discovering and testing macro theories。As time goes by，This "micro-interest" gradually forms path dependence，It even affects the ability of quantitative Bet365 app download to test big theories and serve the "big ones"。Therefore，Quantitative Bet365 app download calls for a return to the macro perspective，Develop "macroscopic observation"。With big data、Introduction of machine learning and other methods and information，The major proposition of the development of this discipline has received initial response and exploration。

“Bet365 app download interests” and disciplinary bottlenecks

What is the difference between individual Bet365 app download of "microscopic purpose" and group Bet365 app download of "macroscopic observation"？What is the bottleneck that the former brings to the development of the discipline？

　First，Different data objects。Individual Bet365 app download focuses on natural persons or families、Enterprise，Use individual-level attribute data；Group Bet365 app download focuses on regions or groups，The process of analyzing social systems based on group attribute indicator data。Second，Different theoretical objects。Micro theory of individual actions or processes、Action theory is the object of hypothesis testing in individual Bet365 app download；Macro theory, especially governance theory，is the object of hypothesis testing in group Bet365 app download。Third，The problem object is different。Individual Bet365 app download should solve the problem of optimizing individual social results，and how macrostructural factors influence individual outcomes；Group Bet365 app download takes individual rational (or irrational) actions and limiting factors as established premises，Study the optimization process of regional or even social level governance results。

"Bet365 app download path dependence of "micro-interest"，The development of quantitative sociology brings three bottlenecks。First, narrowing of vision，Insufficient time span。The Bet365 app download is based on individual surveys，Therefore, the span of data must be limited by investigation time and cost；The spatial granularity is too fine，The observation granularity of traditional quantitative sociology is independently distributed individuals，But the main body of social operation and decision-making，Often not an independent individual。The second is method solidification。The dominant method of traditional quantitative Bet365 app download is questionnaire data description and fitting model for regression analysis，But it cannot solve the large space and time description of important social indicators、Accurate measurement of non-explicit social indicators、Complex system formation and feature discovery of massive data。The third is to observe the dwarfing。Mainly manifested in，The theoretical scale is narrow—due to focus on the individual level，Hypothetical theories confirmed or falsified by quantitative social analysis，It is often impossible to comprehensively explore macro-social processes；Delicate academic interests—the past ten years，The purpose of quantitative Bet365 app download in sociology is increasingly technical and refined，Gradually lost the grand imagination that originally belonged to sociologists，As well as the deep feelings and problem awareness that are dedicated to serving the "greatest country"；Bet365 app download Foundation Suspension—Training and Practice of Quantitative Sociology，It is often easy for scholars to get used to relying on the data at hand，Bet365 app download on existing Western theories、Extended testing at different times and with different groups。This tendency often results in a time and space disconnect between data and theory，Ungrounded Bet365 app download on “bonsai style” midwifery。

Why is the Bet365 app download turn possible

Conditions for the macro-turn of sociology，Based on methodology、It consists of three aspects: Bet365 app download value and realization conditions。

Methodological basis of holism。In contemporary sociological theory，The core point of view of the ontological position of holism is，Social groups can be regarded as the ontological existence of a "thing in itself"，For example, society、Region or class，Has subjectivity and is effective in a causal sense。There may be differences between the behavioral laws of human individuals and the process laws of social groups，Therefore, there is no way to reduce or predict each other。Therefore，It is necessary to clarify the levels of analysis in sociological Bet365 app download。

The multiple values ​​of macro Bet365 app download。Macro quantitative Bet365 app download based on holism，Although it does not necessarily constitute a replacement for microscopic Bet365 app download，But it can form an important supplement to existing quantitative Bet365 app download from multiple perspectives。Its value is mainly reflected in four aspects。First, theoretical value。Macro quantitative Bet365 app download is an important part of “middle-range theory” Bet365 app download，Deserves the same systematic empirical testing as microsocial Bet365 app download。The second is the value of method。Macro correlation analysis enriches the connotation of sociological causal inference，Testing at both individual and group levels，Questions that can help analyze the group fallacy。The third is governance value。For a country as vast as China、For a large country with many levels of governance，Macro-social Bet365 app download is more in line with China’s local governance practices that adapt to local conditions。The fourth is institutional value。Macro international Bet365 app download can provide empirical testing of institutional advantages，By direct to country、Society conducts statistical regression analysis for samples，Can provide a new perspective on global institutional competition。

Conditions for realizing macro quantitative Bet365 app download。To conduct quantitative Bet365 app download at the macro level，There are two different paths for data acquisition and Bet365 app download。One is the accumulation through local macroscopic Bet365 app download or even macroscopic and microscopic mixed Bet365 app download，At or close to macro analysis。The other is to directly analyze all subject samples or a single complex subject system at the macro level。Specially，Big data structures cover time trends、Spatial difference、Space-time evolution、Dimensions such as network structure and massive text，Promoted the launch of a new type of macroscopic observation Bet365 app download—macroquantitative sociology。

The most important feature of macro-quantitative Bet365 app download，It is to extract key macro indicators from massive data that cannot be obtained or accurately measured by traditional methods，Then apply the time series model at the group level、Panel model to test macro theory。or，Use machine learning、Simulation modeling、Social network analysis and other computational social methods，Describe macroscopic social characteristics and structure，To propose or revise theories。Macro-quantitative Bet365 app download to the development of the discipline、Serving the national strategy has important advantages，It’s a theory、A high degree of unification driven by the three elements of data and governance。It can start from theoretical observation，Seeking description verification of data；You can also start from data-driven，The flash of inspiration that formed the theory。On top of the discipline-driven theory and data，The development of macro-quantitative Bet365 app download is driven by governance that serves the “biggest country”。

The road to macro-quantitative Bet365 app download

Macro-quantitative sociology，There are four main approaches，Solve sociological Bet365 app download problems that cannot be solved by micro methods in different fields and levels。

Structural discovery based on massive texts: theorizing sociocultural characteristics。Traditional qualitative Bet365 app download text analysis，Often helpless when faced with massive amounts of text。Therefore，Scholars, especially cultural and social scholars, advocate the use of various text big data for discovery、Measuring sociological meaning in digital and semantic archives。There are often two specific approaches: identification and presentation of potential social and cultural structures，The main method is to use machine learning to mine linguistic feature classification in texts；Exploration and interpretation of potential social and cultural laws，The main method is to use big data visualization tools and indicator description，Discover the characteristics and patterns in the text through induction，And form social and cultural theory。

Complexity Bet365 app download based on network data: Sociological presentation of complex systems。Interaction between individuals in social process，Will pass the convergence of the network、Processes such as emergence and transition，Exhibiting the characteristics of complex systems at the macro level。The emergence of big data, especially network interactive data，Provides an important foundation for perspective on complex phenomena。The current Bet365 app download on complex systems in the field of sociology mainly has two major dimensions。One is the description and measurement of complex networks。This Bet365 app download is based on various social interaction and association big data platforms，Use of visualization methods，Present and characterize social phenomena with a large spatial span or a large number of participating subjects。One is a simulation and model of a complex process。In this type of Bet365 app download，Social scientists mainly create an artificial society through multi-agent simulation modeling or mathematical modeling。

Empirical correlation analysis based on macro social variables: statistical test of macro theory。This mode is the approach closest to traditional quantitative analysis，It is worth mentioning，Chinese scholars started early in this field，A series of studies and presentations have been conducted based on Chinese data。This type of Bet365 app download can be based on dependent variables、The big data sources of independent variables are divided into two categories。One type is that both the dependent variable and the independent variable come from big data。For example，In order to verify the phenomenon of "intragenerational teaching" in the spread of contemporary Chinese Internet culture (that is, a cultural generation gap appears within a generation whose age difference is only a few years)，Scholars use the popularity of Weibo usage of hundreds of Internet hot words as independent variables to "teach"，Using Baidu’s search popularity as the dependent variable “learning”，Then perform econometric model analysis，Discovering intragenerational reverse socialization relationships。One type is the dependent variable or independent variable coming from big data。For example，To measure Americans’ attention to class over the past century，Scholars use digital book corpus，Generate the dependent variable "Class Awareness Index" by calculating the word frequency of class-related words in American published books，Provides new evidence for the classic theory of the times。

Multi-level Bet365 app download based on macro-micro dual data: clarifying the group fallacy。Sociologists can use an empirical perspective，A three-dimensional perspective comparing macroscopic and microscopic mechanisms，Further deepen our understanding of the causal covariation relationship between X and Y，In-depth solution to the problem of zone group fallacy。If the macro relationship is consistent with the micro relationship at the individual level，Then X and Y are in the process of convergence from individual to macro，The dominant ones may be superposition and repetition effects；If inconsistent，Then the reasons for the existence of this group fallacy should be explored。

Constructing a sociological discourse system with Bet365 app download characteristics

Since the reconstruction of Chinese sociology in the 1980s，Quantitative Bet365 app download has made great progress，Gradually becoming a core component of Chinese sociology，And leads China to integrate with international sociology in many fields。At the same time，Chinese quantitative sociology has also made important explorations on the road of localization，In conceptual system、Theoretical Construction、Fruitable results have been achieved in the fields of data collection and Bet365 app download methods。However，We also saw it，Since Reconstruction，The development path is mainly latecomer and dependent。This model introduces existing shortcomings in the development of Western sociology to Chinese sociology，The "micro-interest" of quantitative Bet365 app download is one of them。For quantitative sociological Bet365 app download in China，Ignore macroscopic microscopic path dependence，A periodic bottleneck has formed in the development of the discipline。Mainly manifested in，Based on the number of papers、Influence Factor Theory Hero’s Scientific Bet365 app download Assessment System，Encouraged “bonsai-style” quantitative Bet365 app download for a time；The Bet365 app download horizon is almost limited to contemporary China，Lack of historical society of China、Modern society、Exploration of society in the 30 years before reform and opening up，There is also a lack of awareness of global issues；Theoretical observation is limited to the test of Western statements in the Chinese context，Insufficient theoretical construction of localization。The price is，China’s quantitative sociology has a weak voice in the world、Less influence。

And the macro-turn in quantitative Bet365 app download in sociology，Especially the development of macro-quantitative sociology based on big data，It is expected to accelerate the construction of a sociological discourse system with Chinese characteristics。The mission of this transformation，Specifically manifested in six aspects。

The problem awareness of China’s macro-quantitative sociology: from the traditional origins of Western theory，Towards a focused orientation towards governance in China。The late-developing dependence model of Chinese sociology，Once a major area of ​​focus for empirical Bet365 app download，Most of them come from traditional issues or even characteristic problems in the development practice of Western society。On the one hand，Social Stratification、Transnational Immigration、Education Return、Sociological Bet365 app download concepts and knowledge systems such as women’s power，More rooted and refined in the century-old experience of Western social governance，Theoretical objects that often cannot cover the development of Chinese society。On the other hand，Many issues that have been resolved or need to be resolved in China’s social governance，has not received enough attention in contemporary sociology。The lack of awareness of local issues and the inertia of the subject knowledge system，Enable quantitative researchers to conceive of topics、The whole process from questionnaire design to measurement indicators and model analysis，It is often difficult to break out of the Western quantitative Bet365 app download mold。

Theoretical Responsibility of China’s Macro-Quantitative Bet365 app download: Evidence from China’s Western Theory，Toward the discourse construction of Chinese theory。China’s macro-quantitative Bet365 app download is not satisfied with macro-testing existing Western social theories in China，It is committed to exploring the proposal and system construction of local macro theories-big data contains big phenomena、Big rules，Can lead to new big theories、Big discovery。Beyond the theories originating from Europe and America，Open up a frontier zone rich in China’s theoretical potential，Create new concepts that are easily understood and accepted by the international community、New category、New expression。

The service capability of macro-quantitative sociology in China: a micro-focus on local phenomena，Strategic Bet365 app download towards “The Greatest Country”。Macro quantitative social Bet365 app download based on big data has more advantages than traditional quantitative analysis in serving national strategies、More Power、More direct。Big data breaks the country restrictions of traditional survey data for Chinese quantitative sociology，Chinese scholars have begun to use new information resources，Observe and dissect the international society from a more confident “head-up” perspective，With a more active attitude and clear vision，To examine the major practical issues affecting the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind，Contributing Chinese wisdom from the sociological dimension to the world、China Plan。

Historical observation of China’s macro-quantitative sociology: a short-focus detailed observation of contemporary society，Towards long-distance reading that takes into account the Chinese context。There are three reasons why contemporary Chinese sociological quantitative Bet365 app download lacks historical perspective。First，The Bet365 app download object relies heavily on contemporary social questionnaire data。Second，Dividing Bet365 app download methods，Resulting in insufficient traditional historical and cultural edification and training for quantitative Bet365 app download scholars。Third，Academic tradition relies heavily on quantitative Bet365 app download in American sociology，But the historical perspective of American sociology itself has shortcomings。Fortunately，Macro-quantitative sociology relies on big data spanning large time and space，Can form a breakthrough in the traditional analysis time frame，Even historical data can be processed、Distant reading of cultural materials、Quantification and Overview，To generate new concepts、Opinions and theories。

Talent cultivation of macro-quantitative sociology in China: from a single individual scientific Bet365 app download training model，Towards a team model of cultivating moral integrity and cultivating people through teaching and learning。There are some shortcomings in talent training for quantitative sociology in contemporary China，For example, the emphasis on skill development in education and teaching、Light thinking cultivation，Professional training medium and heavy mathematical model、Light problem awareness，Publication of papers focusing on the evaluation system、Light social services，It is even easy to form a tendency to emphasize technique over Tao、Hide in a small building to study autistic tendencies。The Bet365 app download objects of macro-quantitative sociology span a huge time and space、Complex information structure，It is suitable for all-round academic training、Professional field of developing macro-theoretical thinking，Also requires teamwork ability and social service awareness，Conducive to promoting interprofessional、Cross-agency、Cross-region、Cross-field academic cooperation，More conducive to the echelon cultivation of compound talents。

The communication mission of China’s macro-quantitative Bet365 app download: From looking up to or ignoring Western academic platforms，Towards competition and dominance in global academic platforms。The communication here includes two meanings。First, we must use a confident attitude to form a Chinese school of thought that is recognized and respected by the international academic community in the global academic competition。Natural sciences and philosophy and social sciences have very different paths in serving “the great nation”，The latter has its profound cultural and ideological origins。To this，General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized，“In fact, the voice of my country’s philosophy and social sciences in the international arena is relatively small，Still unable to explain、Talked about the situation that cannot be spread”，We must “focus on putting forward proposals that reflect China’s position” to the world、Chinese wisdom、The concept of Chinese values、claim、Plan”。Two is true、Stereo、Comprehensive image of China，Need sufficient data and theory to support and test。In quantitative Bet365 app download，With the scale of Chinese scholars、The academic quality and the number of international academic carriers founded by Chinese are increasing，The achievements of China theory based on Chinese data，Continuously emerging in the global academic arena。In spreading the voice of China，Macro-quantitative Bet365 app download based on big data has unique advantages，It can be objective、The authoritative way of academic works，Promote the achievements of China’s governance to the international stage and the global public、Confidence in China’s path and the tradition of Chinese context。

The macro-turn in quantitative Bet365 app download in contemporary sociology，To further promote the localization and internationalization process of Chinese sociology，Provides new opportunities and motivation。In terms of localization，Characteristics of the macro-turn in contemporary quantitative sociology，Mainly to further strengthen the problem awareness and theoretical consciousness rooted in China。This is both the attribute of sociology and the internal driving force of sociologists’ family and country feelings，It is also China’s local situation in the new era、The call of big data local data for social theory。This macro shift，It allows us to use a new level of observation and perspective、Unprecedented scale and sophisticated Bet365 app download data，Opening a new door for the construction of Chinese sociological theoretical system，To make a powerful exploration for the global voice of Chinese sociological theory。

The last thing to emphasize is，Macro-quantitative sociology based on big data is an important part of "computational sociology"，Its development in contemporary China，Profound talent、Advantages of location, people and people。We have the largest population and Internet user interfaces in the world，Strong political system and vast territory，This also makes our social development as a whole show a unique high degree of integration of synchronicity and heterogeneity。In the midst of the world’s greatest changes unseen in a century，The "bigness" of China，It not only poses more major theoretical challenges to researchers，Also provides researchers with a perspective on big time and space、Analyzing big data provides more strategic opportunities。The macro-turn in quantitative Bet365 app download in contemporary sociology，It is the process of moving from “microscopic purpose” dominance to “macroscopic consideration”，It is also the echo of Chinese sociology’s self-innovation spirit and unremitting theoretical pursuit in the new era，It is also a reference to the “beneficial knowledge system accumulated for modern social science” proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping，Model deduction used、Quantitative analysis and other effective methods，We can also use it，And it should work well”，Implementation and response to this discussion on the importance of quantitative paradigm。

(The author is a professor in the Department of Bet365 app download, Nanjing University)