Economics narrative reflects social development
March 03, 2021 08:50 Source: "China Social Sciences" March 3, 2021 Issue 2117 Author: This reporter Zhao Yuan

In academic research,Researchers have different narrative methods,The effects of it are also different。Roda Cherif, a senior economist of the International Monetary Fund and FUAD HASANOV, associate professor of economics at Georgetown University, take economic research as an example,Discussion of the formation of economic growth narrative、Propaganda and its role in economic and social changes。

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Narration can be understood as a story that conveys complex thoughts or theories,It can affect people’s decisions,Challenge the rationality of "economic man"。American economist Robert Shiller emphasizes the importance of narrative and its impact on economic results,If the severity of the economic recession、The rise and fall of cryptocurrencies and the technical unemployment。He said,Communication in monetary policy、The financial market's response to non -information news and the people's understanding of economic policy,The power of narrative is obvious。

How to achieve economic growth is one of the core issues of economics。In bet365 live casino games practice,Economists draw conclusions through analysis of different theories and experience evidence,To determine the "real" cause of economic growth and formulate corresponding countermeasures。But,The discussion of these theories on economic growth may include many aspects,If capital accumulation、Human Capital、Financial Development、System、Innovation, etc.。For this,Economists need to sum up these ideas,The key cause of economic growth proposes an explanation of easy to express。These constitute the economic narrative defined by Hiller,Sharif and Kazakhv called it "growth narrative"。

Which growth narrative is a key factor affecting global economic growth? Sharif and Kazakhv studied and analyzed the International Monetary Fund for a total of 4620 national reports from 1978 to 2019。These reports cover most countries and regions in the world,Report content involves the development of economic and economic policies of various countries,and the staff of governments and monetary funds from various countries and monetary fund organizations on macroeconomic policies。They can better reflect the economic consensus of economics researchers and policy circles。Report the audience broad,Except Bet365 app download scholars,There are also decision makers、Financial analysts and reporters。To some extent,How much the audience determines whether the narrative is formed more widely。

Shelev and Kazakhv founded a vocabulary form containing 113 different terms in the study,and calculated the relative use frequency of terms in the report。In terms of terms of terms,They avoided the terms that had nothing to do with growth,It also eliminates general terms such as "monetary policy",Pocked on terms related to the growth cause such as "infrastructure", "governance", "education" and other terms。They also counted low -income countries、The total number of each terms in the three report groups of emerging market countries and developed countries appear,and calculate the frequency of each term compared to all terms in the collection,This frequency will reflect the proportion of different growth promotion factors。

Research Discovery,On average,The growth mode of different income groups has similarity,and change over time。The main factors to promote growth include government governance level、Government Affairs Transparency、Infrastructure and education, etc.。It is worth noting that,The emergence of the government governance level and the bet365 Play online games transparency of government affairs rose sharply in the late 1990s,Keep it at a higher level。From the perspective of the industry,The frequency of the emergence of the service industry accounts for the dominant position,and since the mid -1980s,The frequency of industrialization and industry has been declining。The frequency of industrial policy is relatively low,Until the late 1980s,The people's views on industrial policy are still positive for the people in developed countries。But after,This term gradually disappears in the report,It did not appear again until recent years。

  The ups and downs and influence of the growth narrative

Shelev and Kazakhv determined the four key growth narrative categories in the study。The first type of term cluster is corresponding to the narrative of "economic structure"。The term cluster is basically the service industry、Manufacturing、Construction industry and agriculture related terms related terms composition,Focus on research on each industry and its interconnected。Until the mid -1990s,This narrative has always dominated。The second category is "structural reform" narrative related terms,As an institution、Governance、transparency and competition。Where,Growth is mainly explained bet365 best casino games by the quality of institutions and regulatory frameworks。This statement was the most influential in the first ten years of the 21st century,and still play an important impact in 2010-2020。The third category is the "Washington Consensus" narrative,It mainly includes terms such as privatization and liberalization。This statement is based on the concept of privatization and liberalization,Always on the edge position,gradually rising after the mid -1980s,reached its peak in the 1990s,By the beginning of the 21st century, it will be at the edge position again。The fourth type is a cluster composed of many seemingly different terms,Such as productive forces、Tourism、Business environment、Business、Infrastructure、Skills and financing channels,Can be called the Bet365 app download "Washington Constellation" narrative。As Hiller said,Stars in the sky have no objective reasons to gather together,But they form a pattern,Provide the meaning to the viewer。In this narrative,Growth can be affected by many factors。Now,This narrative has become the most important growth narrative。major turns of narrative development often echo major political events or economic events。The Asian financial crisis in 1997 marked the rise of the narrative of the "Washington Constellation" and the decline of the "Washington Consensus" narrative。

The change of the relative importance of the term can reflect the social theory of society、Affordable attitude of facts and narrative。For example,In the process of promoting relaxation and privatization of the US government,"Privatization" has risen rapidly after 1984,and reach the peak in 1997。But,Global privatization income was relatively stable in the mid -1980s to the early 1990s,Only in the mid -1990s did not start to rise。An explanation thinks,The change of narrative to a wide range of policies takes a period of time to complete。This may be the inertia in the process of policy formulation and the result that is unwilling to try before the establishment of an idea。other,Once a new narrative method is deeply rooted in people's hearts,It can last for a long time。As Kanes said,The formation and communication of popular stories or narratives for understanding economic phenomena、Affecting policy formulation,and the formation of economics's view of the world operation method,Have a significant impact。

Editor in charge: Chen Jing
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