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　　Economic globalization is an unstoppable historical trend

Deputy Dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Member of the Department of Studies、Researcher Cai Yan

The United States fights against China and other major trading partners，Not only a bullying behavior for other countries，and greatly endangers global economic and trade order，Causes huge negative externality，blocking or even reverse economic globalization。But，Whether it is today's world economic pattern and general trend，Still as the second largest economy in the world、The largest industrial country、China factor of the largest cargo trading country and the largest foreign exchange reserve country，All are destined to be economic globalization that is an unstoppable historical trend。The United States is an important participant and beneficiary of economic globalization，So，This unilateralism、Protectionist、Bullying behavior in international relations cannot make the United States "great again"。

　　I. Diversification of the world economic pattern and factors in developing countries.

The current round of economic globalization is the globalization of widespread participation in developing countries，I have never had it in the past。

First，International trade is no longer between things、Internal trade in developed countries between the north and south，Instead, trade between countries different development levels based on comparative advantages。such as，Export proportion of high -income countries based on low -income countries，From 12.9%in 1990 to 29.1%in 2017，Imports increased from 14.8%to 34.2%。

Next，Economic convergence phenomenon first occurred。1990-2017，Low -income countries、The actual growth rate of medium -sized income countries and medium -income countries is significantly higher than high -income countries，The proportion of low -income countries accounted for the total world economy，increase from 22.0%to 35.3%。China's total GDP in the low -income national GDP，increased from 9.9%to 36.0%。

The United States and other high -income countries also benefit from globalization。The United States and other high -income countries also benefit from globalization，Make the capital owner earn a lot，But due to domestic economic and social policies in the United States，Low -income people and middle classes have failed to fully share the gains of globalization。

The United States marries domestic issues to China and other trading partners，is populism、Nationalism、Protectionist，For other countries and American people，There is no harm but no benefit。

　　2. China as a world economic engine and stabilizer.

Since the reform and opening up，Especially after entering the top ten economies in 1990，China is with its huge and stable economic growth，Make a significant contribution to the world economy。After 1990, China's economy contributed more than 10%to the world economy increased by 10%，and this contribution since the 2008 World Financial Crisis has always maintained around 30%。1990-2017，If there is no Chinese economy and its growth，The World Economy will lose 0.43 percentage points，that is, the growth rate will decrease by 15.4%; 2007-2017，Loss will reach 0.61 percentage points，The reduction can reach 25.6%。

The United States also highly depends on the world economy。Its manufacturing trade disputes continue to be upgraded，Try to crack down on the Chinese economy，Obstruct China's development，It will inevitably damage the growth of world economic growth。At the same time，The huge negative externality caused by the United States to the world economy，After hurting other countries，After all, it will form a reverse effect，It will inevitably cause the US economy to be harmed by it。

　　3、Expansion of reform and opening up: Doing your own thing is to contribute to the world。

Actually，Upgrade of the trade war，China is not unprepared。General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized，We must always maintain high vigilance，It is necessary to be highly alert to the "Black Swan" incident，It is also necessary to prevent the "Gray Rhino" incident;，It is also necessary to have high tricks to respond and resolve risks;，It is also necessary to make a good danger、Strategic active battle for turning in crisis。

U.S. Unexpectedly upgrade trade dispute，At best, it is a combination of two events of "black swan" and "gray rhino"，All in the pre -judgment of China's prevention and resolution of major risks。So，The development of the situation will never interfere with China's strategic deployment and achieve the schedule of the "two hundred years" goals。

Give up counter -control、To wait, it is not the usual practice of challenging the other party to challenge the trade war，It should not be what China does as a big country developed。China is maintaining global rules and order、Stability of the world economy as the aspect，All must rely on persistence and expanding reform and opening up。experience from the past 40 years，China knows，Reform and opening up will bring real gold and silver and even immediate bonus，It helps to increase the potential growth rate。External pressure will only enhance the sense of urgency of our further reform and opening up。

The total conclusion is: first，The United States destroys the global trade order、Harmony world economic growth，Even blocking economic globalization cannot be heartbroken。Second，The United States continues to upgrade trade disputes，It will bring a destructive effect to the world economy，Not only causes losses between China and the United States，It also directly hurts other developed countries、Emerging economies and major developing countries。third，This behavior will inevitably arouse the opposition from all countries，Maintain international economic and trade order、Formulate international economic and trade rules，Factors in developing countries will play an important role。Fourth，China does not want to fight、Don’t Love Wars、Not afraid of battle，A reasonable approach to fight against war。At the same time，Do your own thing，Promoting reform，Stable growth of reform dividends，Stabilize people's livelihood with social policies，Further opening to the public，Maintenance Economic Globalization。

　　"American Decent theory": The narrative of the "vest" is changed

Former Deputy Dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Member of the Department of Studies、Researcher Li Yang

During the US election two years ago，Some people in the United States have issued difficulties on the huge trade deficit between China and the United States，Call with "American Debate theory" as the call，claiming that the United States "loses to China 500 billion US dollars" every year，"The United States has lost millions of manufacturing positions"，etc.。In essence,，"American Decent Theory" is just another version of the concept of "global economic imbalance" that is popular when the US subprime mortgage crisis broke out more than ten years ago。Of course，Compared with the concept of "global economic imbalance"，"The United States Losterity" is less than a few points of roll，The wildness of the commercial rivers and lakes is more。

Trend the US trade deficit as the "loss" in the United States，It is a big lie。

First，International economics tells us: a trade deficit in a country，It means that the country's national production capacity exceeds the country，I enjoyed more material wealth; because I enjoyed high quality、Cheap products and labor services，The welfare of the country's nationals has been significantly improved。

Next，Trade deficit puppet，Of course, it can enhance national well -being，But if long -term，is not good for economic development，Because the country must eventually take out bet365 live casino games the real gold and silver of the country to balance it。But，Negative effects mentioned here，Not applicable to the United States，Because，The United States is used to exchange other countries' wealth，Just the paper voucher of the central bank，Even using American economist L. Randel Lei，Just "knocking a few more keyboards on the computer"，At best，Just add the debt of the United States to these countries in the ledger。

again，If the debt is accumulated，Long -term development of one country is not good，Because the debt country eventually, bet365 live casino games the real gold and silver must be returned for it，and also take interest，These are the deductions of their own wealth。But，This disadvantage is not applicable to the United States，Because the United States can still use its central bank's banknotes or knock on the computer of its central bank，To balance its external debt of the Gundam Astronomical Number。

above，Just as American economist L. Randel Lei pointed out in the "Modern Monetary Theory" that is popular in the United States at the moment: "The whole world has been played by the United States twice: once in the United States for excessive imports in the United States，Another is the US dollar paying debt interest。"" The interest rate and profit rate paid to foreigners in the United States are extremely low，However, because of the claims holding foreign investment, they get high interest and profit。”

Obviously，To reveal the fallacy of "American loss theory"，We must not only list the huge benefits obtained at the physical level from the long -term trade deficit，It is also necessary to analyze the support given by its monetary financial system to the actual level of national economic operations，More analysis reveals the special status of the country's use of its world's only superpower，Related its real economy and monetary financial system、Support each other，and to form a global economic and financial governance system led by it，Get a unique excess benefit from it。

Observe the global economic development context since the 1960s，We can clearly see: the United States as the only superpower，Always living in the global imbalance's deficit; on the unbalanced surplus party，The changing characters include Germany and Japan，Since the 1970s，First, the "Four Little Dragons" in Asia，Then the "Four Little Tigers" in Asia，Then is China and oil exporter，Gradually added this ranks。Therefore，If global imbalance is the root of "losses in the United States"，So，The most important source is in the United States。"The United States Lost Lost Theory"，Is a judgment of ignorant and partition history。

We have seen，A trade deficit in the United States and leading to global economic imbalance，Is the normal state of the global economy，and the process of adjusting the imbalance has been undergoing。In a complicated adjustment mechanism，Change the exchange rate system and adjust the exchange rate level，Always stay at the core position。It is important for its role，So that some scholars are named after "weapons"。Especially worthy of attention is，The exchange rate as the "central country" to deal with the weapons of other countries，It is often wrapped in exquisite theory of some dresses as axioms。The complete logical chain of these theoretical evolution is: global imbalances trigger economic conflict，Economic conflict requires policy coordination，Coordination process is subject to the US dollar hegemony，The exchange rate is the key weapon to realize the US dollar hegemony。Therefore，In the context of the continued heating up in the Sino -US trade war，We must be fully prepared，Prevent the evolution of the trade war into a financial war centered on exchange rate war。

For a long period of time in the future，The United States will continue to use exchange rate weapons to achieve "US priority"，This will force Europe、Japanese and China starts against，Refine your own "Monetary State Policy"。Since Sino -US friction has been long -term、Frequentization，For safety meter，We must form our own "monetary national policy" as soon as possible。On the one hand，Weakened the impact of possible external currency finance; on the other hand，Manage domestic financial risks，Then stabilize the domestic economy。This obviously puts forward higher and more urgent requirements for domestic financial reforms。

　　China has the ability to deal with the negative effects of economic and trade friction

Deputy Minister of Foreign Economic Research Center of the Development Research Center of the State Council、Researcher Wang Jinzhao

​​Sino -US economic and trade relations are essentially mutually beneficial and win -win，He two advantages，Dou is two injuries。U.S. tariffs and export control are wrong，Damaged people are not good for yourself，and the global economy。

China is negatively affected by the United States' tariffs and export control。China ’s export value fell by 9.7%from January to April 2019。Chinese -funded enterprises have declined with investment in the United States and US -funded enterprises。

The US economy has also been significantly impacted。From January to April 2019, the US exports to China have fallen by 30%，As a result, the growth of US exports has slowed significantly。The proportion of products with more than half of the market share in the United States in the United States in China is 57.4%，It is difficult for the United States to find a suitable alternative supplier in the short term。U.S. consumers and Chinese production components to assume a considerable proportion of tariff burden。Increasing tariffs will also reduce the employment position brought by exports，The United States has also suffered serious losses in Chinese companies。

American practices and world economy。The current global supply chain、Industrial Chain and Value Chain have participated in many parties in the past 30 and forty years、Results of natural evolution，Reflects the comparative advantages and interests of various countries，It is an important engine to promote the strong and stable growth of the world economy。The approach of the United States has destroyed the efficient and safe operation of the global production network，Learning to slow global trade、Cross -border investment decline、The financial market is turbulent、Insufficient market confidence，Main international institutions have lowered the global trade this year、expectations of cross -border investment and economic growth。

The approach of the United States has damaged the authority of the multilateral trading system。The great country can use huge domestic markets to conduct bilateral trade negotiations，Obtaining trade arrangements that are beneficial to yourself。But most small and medium economies do not have these conditions，An open world economy and multilateral economic governance system is the foundation and premise of these economies to participate in the world economy。Construction tolerance、The open world economy is the responsibility of various powers。Economic and trade disputes between countries shall be resolved through multilateral institutions，instead of adopting protectionism、Unilateralism and threat pressure。

Acting for American protectionism，China is rationally rejected，It is to protect China's legitimate interests and national dignity。China does not want to fight a trade war，Proposal to mutually beneficial and win -win with countries including the United States。But China is not afraid of fighting a trade war，China has the ability to deal with the negative effects of economic and trade friction。

　　First，From a macro perspective，China's economy began to appear in the growth pattern of domestic demand。The contribution rate of final consumption to China's economic growth increased from 37.3%in 2010 to 76.3%in 2018，At the same period，The contribution rate of investment to China's economic growth drops from 54.8%to 32.4%，The contribution rate of the net export of goods and service trade has dropped from 7.9%to -8.6%。The proportion of exports to GDP decreased from 35.4%in 2006 to 18.2%in 2018，Changes in the demand for external markets have significantly reduced the impact of China's economy。In the first quarter of this year，China's export to the United States drops 8.5%，Exports still maintain a positive growth of 1.3%，China's economy still maintains a stable growth of 6.4%。

　　Second，From the perspective of the industry，China is promoting the global supply chain、Position in the division of industrial chain and value chain。At present, Chinese technology investment has jumped to the second world，The number of college graduates every year ranks first in the world。Chinese companies have accumulated certain technical and capital strength，The technical innovation and commercialization of many enterprises has reached the moment of Lingmen。Export control in the United States will bring rare market opportunities to Chinese parts and software companies，Help its commercialization application。

　　again，From the perspective of market scale，China will become the world's largest single market。China and the United States in 2018 are roughly equivalent to the global consumer market.，In the next 5 years，China will increase 200 million people into the middle income class，This has a huge market potential，China will definitely become the world's largest single market。This market is not only a fertile soil for the development and growth of Chinese companies，It is also a must for enterprises to share development dividends。In recent years，The Chinese government is guided by the situation，Vigorously promote market opening，Significant reduction of the negative list of foreign investment access。2018，In the case of a significant decrease in FDI worldwide，China's absorption of FDI growth against the trend。

　　The most important thing is，The Chinese government and enterprises have a response to challenges、Ability to solve problems。Current，As a big country dominated by domestic demand，China still has large space and policy reserves in expanding domestic demand。In recent years，Supply -side structural reforms are implemented in depth，The toughness of economic development is continuously enhanced，China's economy has the ability to respond to fluctuations of external needs。China will further enhance innovation capabilities in the future，Increase investment in a new round of technological changes in the world，Occupy a favorable position。China will further expand market opening，Create a higher level of open platform，Forms wider、Deeper circle of friends。Chinese companies continue to consolidate the technical foundation and management capabilities in the baptism of Chinese and American economic and trade frictions，will participate in the global supply chain at a higher level and deeper extent、Industrial Chain and Value Chain division of labor。​​I believe under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee，Through deepening reform、Expansion open，Continuously release the vitality and growth potential of development，China's economy will welcome the waves，Continue to move forward。

　　Bullying policy does not help solve the problem of imbalances in the United States

Director of the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher Wu Baiyi

Since the United States provoked the Sino -US economic and trade friction，Tell China as "the work of stealing American workers" and "stealing American wealth and intellectual property rights"。Its absurd statement not only ignores the facts，It is not in line with the normal logic of international economic exchanges。

In fact，For more than 20 years，Economic globalization rapid development。The United States has always dominated this historical process and obtained a huge dividend，Accompanied by this, its economic structure changes and trade deficits are constantly climbing。On the one hand，Labor dense type、Middle and low -end industries accelerate to move abroad，Some production links in the mid -to -high -end manufacturing industry are also distributed to East Asia through outsourcing; on the other hand,，U.S. low -skilled workers in the United States, while enduring the hollow of the industry, bring unemployment and other consequences，I also enjoy the benefits of cheap consumption from imported products from all over the world。Speaking of which，It is US financial capital、Industrial Capital and Technical Capital Get the Global Bonus Big Head，and ordinary consumers can also receive a certain benefit and compensation from low wage labor abroad。

So，Why does the United States no longer endure such a situation now? Use unilateralism、Can protective methods solve its fundamental problems?

　　First, the changes in the industrial structure and its social consequences.Since 1955，until the 1980s，The proportion of large companies in the American traditional production industry still accounts for more than 70%of the Fortune 500%。Since 1995，The proportion of "traditional productive industries" in large American companies fell to less than 50%for the first time。early 21st century，Although the US economy has successfully transferred to high -end industries，But the proportion of the overall manufacturing industry in the United States has decreased year by year，The growth rate of manufacturing cannot keep up with the overall growth rate of the US economy，Employment also decreases with it。According to World Bank statistics，The proportion of GDP in the US manufacturing industry has decreased from 16.1%in 1997 to 12.8%in 2007，2016、The GDP of the manufacturing industry in 2017 fell to 11.74%, respectively、11.6%。

The changes in the above data with the labor population of the US manufacturing industry are completely matching。In the rise and peak era of traditional productive industries with manufacturing as the core，In 1953, the proportion of the labor population of the US manufacturing industry was as high as 30%of the peak。In 1979，dropped to 11.8 million in 2009。One of the direct consequences of changes in industrial and employment structure is the continuous deterioration of the distribution of wealth in the American society。

From this we are not difficult to understand，Although the United States is still the world's first powerful country，But there are obvious problems in its internal governance，It is mainly manifested in industrial transfer、Incredible trends of income distribution，The deep -seated reason is the inherent contradictory of the capitalist economic system。

　　Second，Economic globalization is not fundamental wrong，U.S. development imbalance is caused by the decision -making of marketing of the market。Economic Globalization starts from funds、Land、Technology and other production factors obtain the best configuration through cross -border free flow，The principle of the optimal efficiency and then the best efficiency。However, human resources as one of the elements cannot achieve global free flow，With this, "People who need social security cannot leave the country，The capital of the past taxation target of welfare countries can leave the "paradox。

For a long time，The political and economic elites in the United States have always been pursuing the best capital efficiency，Respect deep globalization，It will inevitably lead to its financial capital outflow to other countries or regions that can get greater profit returns，Its productive multinational companies seek the results of global outsourcing。Change of the United States industry、Employment status、Three issues of income imbalances are basically because the United States does not make reasonable adjustments to its own industrial structure，Actively abandon the basic positioning of most real economic industries，Therefore, it has paid a huge price that hurts the all -round competitiveness of the country's manufacturing industry and the employment opportunities of middle and lower class.。

　　third，"Let the United States great again" cannot let China "lie down"。Trump's commitment to his voters "make the United States great again"，But the focus is wrong，No concentration to clean up the domestic disadvantages and the cause behind it for decades，Instead of internationalization of domestic problems，Employment to a trading partner country，Blind its industrial competitiveness and the poverty of some social groups on the latter's development and global competition，Even takes tariffs、Restricted investment、Technical blockade and other bad means to pressure。

The United States provoking a trade war will bring production to American companies and families、Actual increase in the cost of life，employment positions further decrease，Destroy the existing global value chain，Causes serious consequences such as decreased external market share or even loss。Therefore，From the long term，The U.S. government stubbornly promotes trade bullying policy，Not only does it help it to become "great again"，will make the company、The people are deeply trapped。

　　The American counter -historical behavior is futile

Director of the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher Huang Ping

Today's world is no longer an isolated era of respect，Almost no country can return to self -closed island。

First，We have already entered the era of globalization of this round of economic globalization。In this era，multinational trade、multinational investment、Transnational personnel flow，It is already normal，Economic coexistence of various countries，formed "You have me、I have you in the situation。This is not only caused by policy，It is not only Bet365 lotto review a cycle phenomenon in the traditional sense，Instead, there is a deeper structural reason，For example, the formation of the global industrial structure chain。The question is whether we can go up and go、Make the trend，and effectively respond to the new challenges and new uncertainty brought by negotiation and cooperation。But if it is isolatedism、Unilateralism、Old -style routines such as trade protectionism，Even using the method of launching a trade war，Based on the figure in exchange for "decoupling" with other countries' economies，Or thinking that it can make yourself "great again" by "priority"，I am afraid it is unparalleled。

Next，We have entered the information age of technology，Discover、Invention、Development，To spread、Communication、Application，Informatization enables these units of second or smaller units to spread on a large scale，Technology and its applications may even achieve breakthroughs instantly，instead of being monopolized by a certain family，It is not always ahead by a certain country。The leading may be chased，Once the leading possibility is out of time; leading in some fields，It does not guarantee that all fields are always leading，Many field lags，It may also be over and even "curve overtaking" in some areas。This is not to simply use whether there is a patent or whether it has intellectual property rights。Major breakthroughs in the research and development field，Often happened in an inconspicuous place，Technology's innovation and application，It may also be a company that is not optimistic。Use sanctions、blockade、Drive、Capture and other means，Can only be counterproductive，Not only will you limit your advantages and status in the technical field，It will also lose your reputation。

again，We live in a diverse era。Lifetime、Method of communication、Thinking method，It's changing rapidly、Overlap。Cultural diversity，Like biological diversity，Originally, we were able to survive and develop、Find the prerequisite for peace and prosperity，It is also our ability to complement each other、Conditions for mutual learning and mutual learning。The world moves from a single pole to multi -pole，Culture from one yuan to diversity，Rules and its formulation from ostrune to co -discussion，All right in the question，No need to panic because of this。How do you know、How to adapt、How to deal with possible differences、How to get rid of the inherent arrogance and prejudice，instead of being strong，Blindly accusing yourself of being unfamiliar、Don’t understand、The culture and system that I do not understand is "correctionism" or "order destroyer"，Even constantly uses bullying methods to "add layers"，or forced others to "commit"、Also try to "supervise" others to implement。Its results，It will make yourself lose your ability to understand others and cooperate with others，It will also make yourself not the respect of others。

Opportunities for history，I have always only moved the trend、People who are greeted by the trend。Globalization、Informatization、Diversity，These are all historical trends，The uncertainty and risk they brought by them，There is a confusing side，But it is also the development opportunities they bring、Innovation results、Rich Life，But there is an endless side。The latter makes people positive、Positive、Constructive to welcome the arrival of a new era，If you have to go against the historical trend, go to the past、Towards conservative、Towards closed，In the end, you cannot "protect yourself" and "make yourself great again"，It will also hurt others、Hoving others。Two defeats hurt、Dead defeat and injury，Not only the worst national "strategy" and negotiations "strategy"，And the worst direction selection and the most wrong path dependencies。Some elderly people who have experienced the "Cold War"，When participating in the formulation of foreign policies and participating in foreign consultations，Did you forget these? I thought that the old routines of the "Cold War" period to deal with globalization、Informatization、Trade in the diversified era、How can various problems in the fields of technology be used?

　　Don’t talk about integrity caused serious damage to US international credit

Deputy Director of the American and Oceania Research Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce、Researcher Zhou Mi

Credit is an important foundation for the development of business society，It is a necessary condition for the buyer and the seller to complete the transaction。The development of international trade has promoted the international development and evaluation model of the credit system gradually formed，Make your efforts to improve your credit become an internationally recognized important value orientation。

The mutual trust of the country and the country is the prerequisite for all parties to participate in the current international multilateral economic and trade system。Each participating party establishes a series of complex and fair international economic and trade rules systems based on the trust of obeying their commitments。The effectiveness of the multilateral system requires participants to effectively fulfill their commitments，Guide the economic and trade behavior of all parties more standardized。But the practice in the United States in recent years is being paralyzed by the WTO dispute resolution mechanism。

This is so on the side，This is the same in both sides，The repeated repeated repeatedly weakened the basis of mutual trust between the negotiation consensus and commitments of the United States，The process of consultation has been repeatedly frustrated。Since the launch of economic and trade consultations in China and the United States in February 2018，The United States has 3 times out of anti -anti。For the first time, throw 301 survey report，It is claimed to impose a tariff of 25%of the $ 50 billion of goods imports from China，Blocking negotiations on reducing trade imbalance in bilateral sides; the second time is on May 19, 2018, China and the United States issued a joint statement，After reaching the consensus of "No Trade War" consensus, it has continuously expanded its tariffs from China to US $ 250 billion after 10 days. Tariffs and work hard to cancel all tariff directions，When the two parties have experienced multiple rounds of consultations to reach a wide range of consensus，US tariffs from 10%to 25%from May 10, 2019 from May 10, 2019。The United States is also with the European Union、Japan、India and other countries to conduct trade negotiations，Repeatedly negotiating against China has caused the trade agreement between the United States and other countries to reach it.，The results of the agreement may also be discounted。

Credit acquisition and loss effect is asymmetric。It takes long -term unremitting efforts to improve international credit。But the damage of credit may be triggered by a single dishonesty。The negative impact of short -term dishonesty on a country is long -term and difficult to eliminate。The credit breach of a country will occur in the performance of the international agreement，It is likely to have a long negative effect on the confidence of other participants。

Ruo Mei continues to overdraw its international credit，Regardless of the current economic and trade system reform，Still the establishment of a new system may be more difficult，All parties will not trust the motivation and ability to fulfill the promise of the United States。Exit the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran Nuclear Agreement has caused extensive concerns and controversy，But other participants still reiterate the performance of the original commitment，Voting with your feet to indicate the disagreement about the behavior of American behavior。The decline in credit will increase the cost of market operation。If you are labeled with "dishonesty"，Or it is considered to be easy to break the contract，The increase in financing costs of US companies and decline in financing capabilities may be restricted by its development。Americans mostly follow the credit as the basic behavior，If the behavior of the U.S. government has continuous and severe dishonesty，It may lead to an enhancement that citizens are not trusting in them，The phenomenon of social polarization is more prominent。

Economic and trade consultations between China and the United States have a wide range of influences，Each negotiation twists and turns have a serious impact on the capital market。bet365 Play online games Consultation needs to be continuously adjusted and adaptable for both parties，From reaching a consensus to complete the agreement is a process from quantitative change to qualitative change。Mutual trust is an important foundation for negotiating effectively。The reach of the final agreement must help eliminate institutional obstacles that hinder the market's role function、Interests of protecting the development of enterprises、Formation of effective motivation and innovation mechanism。Only attitude of goodwill，Understand the position of the other party，Only to create good conditions for long -term effective protocols。Don't talk about integrity，Use unilateral tools to perform extreme pressure，Only considering short -term interests and neglecting long -term development will lead to two defeats。

　　The international legal order of the trade war initiated by the United States

Deputy Director of the Institute of International Law of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher Liu Huawen

The trade war launched by the United States is not only related to China and the United States，More with the development of the world economy、Stability of international relations and close correlation with the maintenance of international legal order。

　　1. How to treat international law in the United States.

The United States dominates the formation of post -war international order to a considerable extent，The biggest beneficiary of the international legal system and order。But the United States has always held isolation in the field of international law、Practicalism、Unilateralist position。

The desire to reshape the international order of a state is normal，But the expression and implementation path of the United States is "American first" as the slogan，​​Turning coercion of other countries and international organizations、pressing and force，Lack of legitimacy、legitimacy and constructive。

　　2. How the United States treats Sino -US economic and trade relations.

Sino -US trade war，The essence of its essence is the United States and I do，Above the international law with domestic law，Violation of International Law，Especially the multilateral trade rules system，Destroy international rule of law。

The United States has repeatedly gone back，As a result, the Sino -US economic and trade consultation is seriously frustrated。A copy of sustainable、The reaching the enforcement of the executable international protocol requires the contract to respect each other on the basis of equality，and reflect fairness and goodwill in content。The U.S. government waves the tariff stick to threaten，It is irresponsible，Violation of the WTO rule，It is not in line with the principle of contractual contract of the usual international treaty。

The long -arms jurisdiction that the United States advocated at the same time is a kind of hegemonic behavior。The long -arm jurisdiction is first of all in the international law.，No international law foundation; second, it is easy to violate the sovereignty and jurisdiction of other countries、The consequences of infringing on the personal rights and interests of other countries and citizens，Of course it will cause protest from the EU and many countries、Resistance。

China actively builds the rule of law、Internationalization、Convenient business environment，At the same time, adhere to the principles of the rule of law and the principle of rationality to respond to Sino -US trade friction。It is legal and legitimate in accordance with the WTO rules and the basic principles of international law。China will not take the initiative to pick things，But never be slaughtered。China will continue to comprehensively promote reform and opening up，It will also actively use legal weapons to protect the country、The interests of enterprises and citizens。

　　3, the United States is threatening and destroying international legal order.

The trade war launched by the United States unilaterally has affected many countries。Since the founding of the United Nations, it has gone through more than 70 years，Where can the world go? What does the United States do，Make this question more urgent。

Due to the selection of new judges in the United States，After December 10 this year，WTO appealing agency will have only one judge，Make it unable to operate, which will cause the entire dispute solution mechanism to be paralyzed。May 28，Former Chairman of the Appeals Institution, Judge Fan Dengbohe Posseng pointed out in Geneva in Geneva，Rules -based multilateral trading system currently faces a series of crises。He said: "Most member states of the world trade organizations do not want international trade without rules，or more accurately，The rules that do not want international trade are determined by the most powerful party in the controversy。”

U.S. unilaterally launched a trade war，Violation of International Law，Alarm clock that sounds destroying world economic growth and international legal order。

Some people say that trade fighting is strength，Some people say that trade fights are rules，Actually，Trade fighting is even more moral。This is a unilateralist and multilateralism、Protectionism and free trade、Battle of Power and Rules。

China is showing its own determination and responsibility，While actively using the current international law to safeguard its own rights and interests，One will be with other countries in the world，Promote the development of the global governance system towards a more fair and reasonable direction，Continue to be an initiator and practitioner who continues to build a community of human destiny。

　　The United States to destroy the global supply chain and industrial chain will lead to damage to global economic efficiency

Director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher Huang Qunhui

Recently, the US government has continuously upgraded Sino -US trade friction，As a result, the Sino -US economic and trade consultation is seriously frustrated，And，The US government is in the name of the so -called national security "unnecessary" name，Continuous Chinese companies such as Huawei and some universities、Research institutions implement "long -arm jurisdiction" sanctions，It also adopts a variety of ways to promote technical protectionism。These behaviors and practices of the US government，It will force some companies to adjust their global supply chain and industrial chain，This adjustment forms the destruction of existing high -efficiency global supply chain and industrial chain，This destruction will inevitably affect global economic efficiency。

The supply chain and industrial chain of today's world are formed under the leadership of the global value chain，It is the product of the globalization of capital under the support of modern transportation technology and information technology。From an economical point of view，Economic Globalization is the result of the global profit of capital，Due to modern transportation technology, the transportation cost is greatly reduced，Information technology development has greatly reduced the cost of knowledge communication and communication，Enterprises can low cost to achieve each specific value creation activity through global resource allocation，So the global value chain division of the country's global value chain was formed。

Specifically，Multinational companies in developed countries need to conduct in -depth analysis of business functions on their value chain，Determine where each function is realized、How to achieve (outsourcing or produced by itself) can maximize the value of corporate，Therefore, in the most efficient way to configure its own resources in the world to achieve these business functions，This forms a global value chain division of labor。Under this division of labor，Enterprises that realize corporate value in the world have formed a global supply chain and industrial chain, respectively.。Therefore，The current global value chain division of labor and the supply chain and industrial chain layout formed by this are determined by this long -term market competition、A efficient production method。

Although，Developed countries multinational companies dominate this global division of labor，Developed countries are generally in the high -end of the value chain，and then the country is generally at the low -end of the value chain，But all countries and enterprises participating in this global value chain division of labor have received benefits、Realized win -win，The former gains profit and growth，The latter obtains employment and development，Therefore, all parties actively accept this global value chain division of labor。This is also an important reason why the economic bet365 Play online games globalization (globalization 3.0) based on the global value chain division of labor。

Of course，Market competition，Supply Chain、The industrial chain and value chain will gradually change benign changes due to technological progress。This change from the perspective of global economic growth，It must be based on the foundation of technological innovation，It must be the gradual improvement of economic efficiency，Otherwise, it is impossible to achieve。

But，When the state government is imposed on tariffs for various reasons、Direct restrictions on corporate transnational business behavior、When interfered with international production activities with domestic law，It will inevitably increase corporate transaction costs。The value chain of the enterprise has to be redesigned，It will inevitably force enterprises to break the existing global supply chain and industrial chain layout，Then disrupt the global economic order，Destroy the market competition system，A distorted global resource allocation，Finally caused a lot of losses to global economic efficiency，It is not good for any country and enterprise in the global value chain。As the Nobel Prize winner of Economics Paul Crugman pointed out，The current way of acting in the United States can easily lead to crushing the global trade system，Fast global trade volume、Deadial decline。

Actually，What the US government needs to understand is，The global value chain division of labor formed since the end of World War II and the WTO、International Monetary Fund Organization、The global economic governance structure represented by the World Bank is beneficial to the world，belongs to global public products。The world economy is not a game that can only win by a surplus country，Economic globalization of global value chain division of labor today，disrupted the global supply chain and industrial chain layout will harm everyone's interests。

　　U.S. upgrade economic and trade friction will exacerbate the downside risk of global economy

Secretary of the Party Committee of the Institute of Industrial and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher Li Xuelong

2018 The United States provoked friction with China and trade，In May 2019, the United States upgraded the economic and trade friction with China again，This will not only exacerbate the downward risk of the United States and the global economy，And the adverse effect on the United States will continue to increase。China has enough time to deal with it calmly，Cooperation and reaching mutual benefit and win -win agreement will be the only correct choice in the future。

　　1、The disadvantage of economic and trade frictions from the United States on the United States and global trade is expanding。

The United States provokes economic and trade frictions that will significantly exacerbate global trade uncertainty，Decreasing global orders，Trade growth rate drops sharply。According to WTO statistics，In the first quarter of this year，In the US dollar calculation，EU cargo exports fell 4.7%，The growth rate fell 23.7 percentage points from the same period last year; the export of goods in Japan fell by 5.8%，The growth rate fell 16 percentage points from the same period last year; the export of Chinese goods increased by 1.4%，The growth rate fell 12.3 percentage points from the same period last year; the export of US goods increased by 1.5%，The growth rate fell 6.5 percentage points from the same period last year。This can be seen，The economic and trade friction provoked by the United States is significantly higher than the beginning of the global trade and the United States itself than the beginning of economic and trade frictions.，It is impossible for the United States to be alone。In addition，Some economies with high debt，The role of the global supply chain transmission mechanism，Frequent projects may deteriorate and pose a threat to its currency stability。

　　2、The adverse effects of the upgrading economic and trade friction in the United States will continue to increase the adverse effects on American companies and consumers。

Different from the selection of import prices of tariffs in the United States，Adding tariffs to the adverse effect on the US economy exist significantly heterogeneity。The United States chooses a 50 billion US dollars of goods with a large price of imported prices (a large proportion of intermediate investment products) plus tariffs on the United States.，but the adverse impact of 200 billion US dollars of tariffs on the tariffs on the United States will gradually increase，The remaining more than 300 billion U.S. dollars of goods will be more and more harmful to American consumers.，These products are mainly consumer products with less elasticity。Therefore，Measures such as the U.S. extra tariffs are not the main claims that the United States is mainly borne by China，With the US upgrade tariff measures，The tariffs imposed by the addition will be borne by the United States。

　　3、The economic and trade friction that the United States wants to provoke and upgrade will exacerbate the downward risk of the United States and the global economy。

2018 The economic growth rate of developed economies，The United States is affected by factors such as sharp tax cuts.，Dowager for Economics。U.S. Economic upsurge temporarily covering up the adverse effects of provoking the friction of economic and trade on it，But actually，If the United States does not provoke economic and trade friction，In 2018, its economic growth should be higher。

The United States has a strong current economic growth，Wanting to provoke and continuously upgrade economic and trade friction，This negative impact on the US economy will eventually be revealed。According to the prediction of IMF this April this year，In 2019, the US and euro zone expects economic growth to decline greatly than the decline in the economic growth rate of China and Japan。IMF is expected to fall from 2.9%in 2018 to 2.3%in 2019，decreased by 0.6 percentage points; the economic growth rate of the euro zone will drop from 2%in 2018 to 1.3%in 2019，decreased by 0.7 percentage points; China's economic growth will drop from 6.6%in 2018 to 6.3%in 2019，decreased by 0.3 percentage points; Japan's economic growth rate will drop from 1.1%in 2018 to 1.0%in 2019，Decrease to 0.1 percentage point。

In short，The United States unilaterally provokes and upgrades economic and trade friction，It will exacerbate the downward risk of the United States and the global economy。The essence of Sino -US economic and trade relations is mutually beneficial and win -win，A protocol that cooperates and reached mutual benefit and win -win results is the only correct choice in the future。

　　Mirror of Japanese and American friction: The trade war has never been a winner

Director of the Japan Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher Yang Bojiang

From the history of international relations，There are often cases of disputes between the country due to trade issues，But the example of successful resolution of disputes by launching a trade war。The trade war cannot solve the problem，No party can not be a winner。In this regard，The most lively example，It is the Japanese -American trade friction that has been more than 60 years before and after。

In 1955, Rimei first appeared trade friction，Since then, the intensity has continued to upgrade，The range continues to expand，From labor -intensive industries to capital -dense industries，From goods trade to service trade，From the industrial level to the macro policy level。In the early 1990s, the Japanese bubble economy collapsed，The Structural Structure of the Structural Structure of the US trade deficit。Japanese and American friction ebb，but not eliminated。The year of Trump was elected，Japan surplus more than Germany，Become the second largest trade deficit country in the United States。Under the pressure of the United States，The Japanese side was forced to agree and launched bilateral trade negotiations in April this year，But insisting on negotiation is limited to goods trade。

Evaluation of the standard of "losing" and "winning" in the trade war is nothing more than three aspects: two dimensions of politics and economy; long -term and short -term wavelengths; overall and local categories。From an economical point of view，The purpose of the United States is to reduce the trade deficit，This is quantifiable、Visual indicators。From a political perspective，"Losing" and "Win" is a domestic and international comprehensive political income obtained through the trade war。Comprehensive analysis is not difficult to see:

"Win" for short -term explicitity in the United States，Long -term "lost"。In the 1980s, the United States paid "combination boxing"，On the grounds of maintaining national security，Improve tariffs、Forced Daily Expansion to American Semiconductor Import、Strengthen intellectual property protection，Obstructing the development of high -tech industries in Japan。Bet365 lotto review US trade deficit decline，The monopoly position of the high -tech industry is consolidated。President Reagan led to Japan negotiations，Forced Japan to reduce market entry threshold，Get domestic political income。Structural reform，It's hard to say that the United States has won the trade war。First of all, the United States has never been eliminated in the daily deficit。It is forcing the Japanese side to adjust、At the same time of reform，My own refusal to implement the fundamentality、Structural reform，Economic investment is greater than the imbalance of savings.，The trade deficit is always accompanied。Second，Damage to international political interests。As an advocate of the multilateral free trade system after the war、Founder，The United States has adopted unilateral sanctions based on domestic law，Damage to the multilateral system，It also damaged its own international credibility。

Japan is undoubtedly lost in the short term，In the long run, it has won an opportunity for economic reshaping。First it always maintains a trade surplus to the United States。Second，The pressure of the trade war，Implement a series of structural reforms in Japan，The transformation from factor -driven growth to innovation -driven growth，Continuous optimization of economic structure。Japan's reform of its own economic system，Improve the market economy system，Improve economic operation efficiency，Stimulate the innovative vitality of the market，Enhanced the bottom for the long -term development。again，Japan has obtained international political income，​​Increased liberalization of foreign economic relations，Finally converted into a maintenanceer of the free trade system，Improving the right to speak in the formulation of international trade rules。

In the high -tech field，Japan adopts the construction of corporate informatization facilities、Cultivate technical talents、Establish a variety of policies such as the preferential fiscal and taxation system，Hit the dilemma facing industrial development。Reform related system at the same time，Relax control、Promoting industrial transformation。The international competitiveness of Japan's high -tech industry is relatively decreased than when it is prosperous，But in the image sensor、Car Electronics、Power Semiconductor and other fields still maintain a leading position。

Historical description of Japanese beauty friction，The trade war causes long -term or short -term development to the normal development of the economies of all parties、Obvious or implicit serious damage，And this damage was originally avoided。From this perspective of Sino -US trade friction，There are two important inspirations: First, the trade war cannot solve problems，The United States cannot achieve the purpose。The United States failed from Japan，Not even more from China。Japanese and American friction and Chinese and American friction，Economically, there is a certain degree of comparability; but the basic national conditions of China and Japan are different，Sino -US relations and Japan and the United States have essential differences。Second, equal negotiation is the only correct way to solve the problem; self -change、Self -improvement，is a necessary condition for solving problems。

　　Equality negotiation, create a new situation in China and the United States

Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economic and Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher Song Hong

After eleven rounds of hard consultation，Sino -US trade negotiation seems to be in a deadlock。This time the Sino -US economic and trade negotiations，There are a few problems that need special attention。

　　1、The nature of the Sino -US economic and trade negotiation under the 301 clause and the implicit inequality。

The cause of this Sino -US trade negotiation is the US 301 survey。

From the perspective of the United States，Sino -US bilateral trade negotiations are to solve the Chinese unfair trade practices determined in the US 301 report。The purpose of the negotiation is to force the Chinese side to make concessions and changes，and the United States does not need to make a new commitment。Therefore，From the perspective of the US position and the commitment made by China，This negotiation is not equal。

More serious is，The United States even further requests the execution mechanism of the establishment of an agreement，that is: Once China does not implement the commitment in the agreement，The United States will start the revenge procedure。This，301 survey and its execution process will be long -term or even permanent。

　　2、Under the potential impact of negotiations and the proposed agreement。

Different negotiations under the negotiations under the free trade agreement。The former is unilateral constraint，That is, the Chinese side made unilateral commitments，and the United States does not need to be equal,Effective procedures are simple; the latter is based on the WTO principle that the two parties have substantial commitment to be liberalized and facilitated，Need the approval of the US Congress to take effect。

Starting from the nature of Sino -US trade negotiations，If an agreement is reached according to the intention of the United States，It will have a negative impact on the multilateral trading system and the entire world economic governance: light harm to the credibility and seriousness of the multilateral trading system，The heavy world trade、Economic governance re -pull back to the era of power -based power。

　　Three, equal negotiation, and create a new situation in China and the United States.

Only abandoning unilateralism，Equality negotiation，Only to create a new situation in the Sino -US economic and trade relations。

First，Economic and trade negotiations conducted under the framework of Article 301，Regardless of the result of the negotiation，Neither can solve trade disputes between China and the United States，Can't open up new space for future economic and trade cooperation，It should be as soon as possible、as early as possible、Unconditionally terminate this survey。

Second，Start the negotiation of the China -US Free Trade Agreement。Many contents and commitments of the existing 301 negotiations can be placed in this bilateral -to -peer framework。This is done: not only solved the current Sino -US trade dispute，It has also built a new structure of economic and trade cooperation，Conflict with the multilateral trading system at the same time。

third，Restarting BIT negotiations in trouble，Pioneering bilateral investment huge potential space。

Fourth，Participate in and promote the construction of the free trade zone in the Asia -Pacific region，Forms a high -level regional economic and trade cooperation。