“Evidence-Based Policy”，referred to as "bet365 new user promo"，Shows a new trend in evidence theory research，Reflects the emphasis on practical issues in philosophy of science research。The main representative of bet365 new user promo research is Nancy Cartwright，His representative work is the book "Evidence-Based Decision Making" co-authored with Jeremy Hardie。The core concept of bet365 new user promo is: public policy should be based on objective evidence。The key issue to be solved in bet365 new user promo is: what kind of evidence is there to prove that the newly formulated policy will work？

　　Conceptual bet365 new user promo and Historical Tracing

Literally，The main meaning of "policy" is policy，But it also means decision-making。Cartwright sometimes uses “evidence for use” and “decision” to explain the meaning of bet365 new user promo，Point out that it is a new decision-making theory of qualitative analysis，Mainly used in the policy formulation process and evaluation of results。Different from game theory、Classic quantitative decision-making theories such as social choice theory，bet365 new user promo is not only oriented to poverty alleviation、The formulation process of policies such as mitigating climate change，It also includes educational actions such as teachers assigning homework，And medical decisions such as approving the use of new drugs。Therefore，The word “policy” here does not mean the policy-making process in the narrow sense，But decision-making behavior in a broad sense。

bet365 new user promo originated from the general call of the British medical industry in the 1990s: decision-making in the treatment process (such as the use of drugs, etc.)，Should be based on experimental evidence。In the same period，The British "Economic and Social Research Council" establishes digital evidence (big database) open to the market，Promoted the promotion of the concept of bet365 new user promo。Because "evidence" is as irresistible as "truth"，The concept of bet365 new user promo quickly spread to other industries。Can be expected，The concept of bet365 new user promo will continue to expand its influence in the future。Below we will analyze the core idea of ​​bet365 new user promo based on Cartwright’s theory。

　　bet365 new user promo arguments and extended views

bet365 new user promo emphasizes the use of evidence as the criterion。Then，What is evidence？According to the "Evidence" entry in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy，For a person，The evidence is: his sense-data (e.g.，"What I saw was a bouquet of red flowers")、Observation statements he accepted (e.g.，He was told "not all crows are black"，And he agrees with this observation report)、All propositions he knows (for example，"The sum of the interior angles of a triangle is 180 degrees")、His established beliefs (e.g.，He believes that there may be life on other planets)。Of course，This is a very abstract and broad definition of evidence。Although it has a certain explanation function，But in practice，People will not accept such a broad interpretation of the evidence。

Scientists accept a much narrower concept of evidence。Generally for scientists，If a theory H deductively implies E，That is, a predicted result E can be obtained based on H，And experimentally prove that E is correct，Then E will be considered as evidence of H。But，Cartwright criticized，Such a concept of evidence is too narrow，Not enough to explain many phenomena。For example，Medical research finds that smoking can cause lung cancer，But not everyone who smokes will get lung cancer。Therefore，She thinks，The core of evidence is correlation，And further interpret correlation as causal correlation。So，According to her theoretical explanation，Smoking is a possible cause of lung cancer，increases a person’s risk of lung cancer，But smoking does not necessarily cause lung cancer。Visible，Cartwright’s bet365 new user promo decision theory is actually a decision-making analysis framework supported by causal relationships。

However，It needs to be pointed out，Cartwright acknowledges that there are multiple types of evidence-based decisions，It’s just that she focuses on the type of causal evidence decision-making。In fact，The theory of causation has been a central issue in Cartwright's longstanding scholarship，And her early research focus was on causal theory in the philosophy of science。Therefore，bet365 new user promo is one of her applied studies，That is, using the evidence theory in the philosophy of science to analyze and solve problems in social sciences。

While Cartwright emphasizes the central role of causation in the evidentiary framework，But she does not believe that causality is a statistical law。She thinks，Correlation is not causation，And causality is not equal to scientific law。She admits that there may be universal laws of cause and effect。For example，She agrees that in some sense the law of gravity can be regarded as a law of cause and effect。But，She opposes foundationalist views，Believe that there is no natural uniformity。Because exploring such laws requires relying on a priori intuition and highly abstract philosophical arguments，She finds this unconvincing from a methodological perspective。Opposite，She adheres to the views of the Stanford philosophy (historical) school，Believe that only empiricism is the foothold of scientific research，Point out that we should start from the bet365 new user promo，Support and accept those theories or decisions that can be defended by objective bet365 new user promo。

It is based on bet365 new user promo philosophical position，Cartwright believes that the laws of cause and effect are not universal，Because the law of cause and effect is affected by time、Constraints of spatial factors。She seems to espouse a holistic position，Think that for an event，There are often multiple common factors that affect its occurrence and development，These different factors play a causal role in different ways。So，She emphasized the need to pay special attention to the "other things being equal" clause in evidentiary decisions，When analyzing whether a policy that has been successful elsewhere will be successful here，The key question that needs to be asked is: whether the same mature conditions for implementing bet365 new user promo policy are also present here？

　　bet365 new user promo basis and academic debate

bet365 new user promo is essentially an applied research of evidence theory，It is the emphasis and attention on practical factors，This is well reflected in Cartwright。Cartwright said，The emphasis on practical factors is mainly influenced by Otto Neurath of the Vienna Circle，The latter emphasizes that philosophy should serve to transform the world，And his point is reflected in the boat metaphor: before we are born，The world already exists，But it’s not a perfect world，Rather, the world is a leaking ship sailing on the sea，We have to fix it，So as not to be buried under the sea with it。This explains，We must learn to adapt to the environment，And have to use the imperfect logical tool of inductive reasoning。To this，Cartwright might say，Now we have better logic tools，This is the bet365 new user promo theory based on causal theory。

What’s interesting，Paul Rudolf Carnap of the Vienna Circle focused more on the reconstruction of theoretical foundations，Although he also emphasizes transforming the world in his social and political views。In bet365 new user promo，Carnap tried to imitate deductive logic to construct a universally applicable inductive logic system。Although his research has had a profound impact，But now many scholars believe that his plan was a failure。Hans Reichenbach is a gentler figure，He proposes a pragmatic defense of inductive reasoning。Because the causal bet365 new user promo constructed by Cartwright is also an inductive bet365 new user promo，And she believes that the rules of cause and effect are not universal，This is equivalent to saying that there is no universally applicable inductive reasoning schema。So，We can view Cartwright's view as a criticism of Carnap's view。However，Due to Cartwright’s emphasis on practical factors，So she brought into play Reichenbach’s pragmatism。

In fact，Criticism of Carnap’s inductive theory，There seems to be a trend。Not only Cartwright，And scholars such as Peter Achinstein and John Norton also criticized his theory。Achinstein criticizes the classical Bayesian concept of bet365 new user promo for being too weak，Considering that positive correlation is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition for bet365 new user promo。For example，Taking in an elevator increases the probability of an elevator accident，But taking the elevator does not constitute bet365 new user promo of an elevator accident。If a person insists that the former is bet365 new user promo of the latter，I’m afraid I’m too timid。So，Same as Cartwright，He also advocates improving the classic definition of bet365 new user promo，Introduced the idea of ​​explaining correlation (including causal relationship)，Constructed the “strong bet365 new user promo” theory。Norton also put forward two core points: there are no universally valid inductive reasoning rules；All inductions are locally valid。This echoes Cartwright’s point of view。

Currently，bet365 new user promo also faces two main challenges。First，For what is evidence，People may not agree。This is a potential weakness of evidential decision theory。Maybe，Classify research on evidence，is a way to solve the problem。Second，Some fields are not suitable for experiments，Especially when it comes to physical and mental health。This may become an insurmountable obstacle to bet365 new user promo。This difficulty may be alleviated by indirect evidence from historical (clinical) case studies。For example，Freud used this method，And achieved fruitful theoretical results，Although his interpretation of the evidence is controversial。

In short，bet365 new user promo is a relatively new decision-making theory，At the stage of theoretical development。In a sense，bet365 new user promo research is an applied research of scientific evidence theory。I believe that under the technical background of artificial intelligence and big data，The theoretical influence of bet365 new user promo will be further enhanced。After all，No rational person will ignore the role of evidence。

　(Author’s affiliation: School of Philosophy and bet365 new user promo Development, South China Normal University)