"Evidence-Based Policy)，referred to as "Evidence Decision"，shows a new trend of evidence theoretical research，Reflects the importance of scientific philosophical research on practical issues。The main representative of evidence decision -making research is Nancy Cartwright，Its masterpiece is the book "Decisions based on evidence" with Jeremy Hardie。The core concept of evidence decision -making is: public policy should be based on objective evidence。The key issue to be solved by the decision -making of evidence is: What kind of evidence can demonstrate the new formulation policy?

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Literal perspective，"Policy" is the main meaning is policy，But it also contains the meaning of decision -making。Cartewate sometimes uses "Evidence for USE" and "Decision" to interpret the meaning of evidence decision -making，Point out that it is a new decision theory of qualitative analysis，It is mainly used in the process of policy formulation and evaluation of results。Different from game theory、Classic quantitative decision -making theory such as social selection theory，Evidence decision -making does not include poverty alleviation、The formulation process of policy changes and other policies，also includes educational actions like teachers to arrange homework，and the use of this medical decision for the use of new drugs。Therefore，"Policy" The meaning of the word "Policy" is not the process formulation process in the narrow sense，but decision behavior in a broad sense。

Bet365 app download Evidence decisions originated from the general appeal of the medical industry in the medical industry in the 1990s: decision -making during treatment (such as drug use, etc.)，Based on experimental evidence。In the same period，The British "Economic and Social Research Committee" establishs open digital evidence (big database)，Promoting the promotion of evidence decision -making concepts。Because "evidence" and "true" have an irresistible charm，The concept of evidence decision -making quickly spreads to other industries。can be expected，The concept of evidence decision -making will continue to expand the impact in the future。Below we analyze the core thoughts of evidence decision -making based on Carty's theory as the theory。

　　Core argument and extension view

Evidence decision -making emphasizes evidence as the criterion。So，What is evidence? According to Stanford Philosophy Encyclopedia，For someone，Evidence is: his senses -data (eg，"What I see is a bouquet of red flowers")、The observation statement he accepts (for example，Someone told him "Not all crows are black"，and he agrees with this observation report)、All the proposition he knows (for example，"The sum of the inner angle of the triangle is 180 degrees")、The belief he has determined (for example，He believes that other planets may also exist)。Of course，This is a very abstract and broad evidence definition。Although it has a role in explanation，But in practice，People will not accept such extensive evidence explanations。

The concept of evidence accepted by scientists is much narrower。Generally for scientists，If a theoretical H interpretation places contains E，That is to get a predicted result E according to H，and prove that E is correct through experiments，So E will bet365 live casino games be considered a evidence of H。but，Carter Hatt criticized，The concept of evidence is too narrow，Not enough to explain many phenomena。For example，Medical research found that smoking can cause lung cancer，But not everyone who smokes will get lung cancer。Therefore，She thinks，The core of the evidence is correlation，and further interpret the correlation as causality。So，According to her theoretical interpretation，Smoking is a possible cause of lung cancer，It will increase the risk of a person with lung cancer，But smoking will not inevitably get lung cancer。Visible，Carter's evidence decision theory is actually a decision -making analysis framework supported by causality。

but but，What needs to be pointed out is，Cartewett recognizes the type of various evidence decisions，It's just that she is concentrated in the type of causal evidence decision -making。In fact，Cause and effect theory is a central question of Cartytirt's long -term academic research，and her early research focus is the cause and effect theory in scientific philosophy。Therefore，Evidence decision is a kind of application research，The theory of evidence in scientific philosophy is used to analyze and solve problems in social sciences。

Although Cartemed emphasizes the core role of causality in the evidence framework，But she doesn’t think the cause and effect is the law of statistics。She thinks，The correlation is not a causal relationship，and causal relationship does not mean the law of science。She admits that there may be commonly established causal laws。For example，She agrees to treat the law of gravity as a causal law in a sense。but，Her views against basicism，I think there is no natural uniform。bet365 Play online games Because exploring such a law requires the intuition and highly abstract philosophical argumentation of the priority，She believes that this is unobstructed from the perspective of methodology。On the contrary，She adheres to the perspective of Stanford Philosophy (History) School，It is believed that only empiricalism is the foothold of scientific research，point out that we should start from evidence，Support and accept those theories or decisions that can be defended by objective evidence。

It is based on this philosophical position，Cartewett believes that the law of cause and effect is not common，Due to the law of causality、Constraction of spatial factors。She seems to support a stance of overall theory，Think for an event，There are often multiple common factors that affect the occurrence and development of it，These different factors play a causal role in different ways。So，She emphasizes that in the decision -making of evidence, you need to pay special attention to the "other conditions the same" clause，That is to analyze whether the policy that has been successful elsewhere will be successful here，The key question that needs to be questioned is: Is there the same maturity conditions to implement the policy here?

　　Theoretical foundation and academic contention

Evidence decision -making is essentially an application research in the theory of evidence，It is the emphasis and importance of practical factors，This is a good manifestation in Carte Hatt。Cartyth said，The emphasis on practical factors is mainly influenced by the OTTO Neurath of the Vienna School，The latter emphasizes that philosophy needs to serve the world，And his point of view is reflected in the vessel metaphor: before we were born，The world already exists，But this bet365 best casino games is not a perfect world，It is rather to say that this world is a ship that is leaking at sea，We must repair it，so as not to be buried with it for the sake of the sea。This description，We must learn to adapt to the environment，and I have to use inductive reasoning this incomplete logic tool。For this，Cartewett may say，Now we have better logic tools，This is the theory of evidence decision -making theory based on cause and effect theory。

The interesting thing is，Paul Rudolf Carnap in the Vienna School focuses on the reconstruction of theoretical foundation，Although he also emphasized the transformation of the world in social and political views。Theoretically，Calnap tries to imitate the logic to construct a generally applicable inductive logic system。Although his research has a profound impact，But now many scholars think that his plan is failed。and Hans Reichenbach (Hans Reichenbach) is a gentleman，He proposes a practicality defense plan for inductive reasoning。Cause and effect theory constructed by Carted is also a inductive theory，and she believes that the rules of causality are not common，This is equivalent to saying that there is no commonly applicable inductive reasoning graph。So，We can think of Cartyd's point of view as a criticism of Calnap's point of view。but but，Because Cartemed emphasizes practical factors，So she played Lai Xinba's pragmatism thinking。

In fact，Criticism of Calnap's induction theory，It seems to have formed a trend。Not only Carter Wright，and scholars such as Peter Achinstein and John Norton also criticized his theory。Achinstein criticized the concept of evidence of classic Bayesianism too weak，It is believed that positive Bet365 app download correlation is neither the sufficient conditions of the evidence nor the necessary conditions。For example，Take the elevator to increase the probability of an elevator accident，But taking the elevator does not constitute evidence of an elevator accident。If a person insists that the former is evidence of the latter，I'm afraid it's too timid。So，Like Cartermed，He also advocates improving the definition of classic evidence，Introduction to the idea of ​​explaining related (including causality)，Constructed "Strong Evidence" theory。Norton also put forward two core points: there is no general effective induction and reasoning rules;。This is echoing each other with Cartyth。

Current，Evidence decision also faces two main challenges。First，What is evidence，People’s views may not be consistent。This is a potential weakness of the theory of evidence decision -making。Perhaps，Classified research on evidence，is a method to solve the problem。Second，Some areas are not suitable for experiments，Especially in terms of physical and mental health。This may become an obstacle that is difficult to overcome by evidence decision。This difficulty may be relieved through the indirect evidence obtained by the History (Clinical) Case Research Institute。For example，Freud used this method，and achieved a rich theoretical results，Although his explanation of the evidence is controversial。

In short，Evidence decision -making is a relatively new decision theory，At the stage of theoretical development。In a sense，Evidence Decision Research is a application of scientific evidence theory。I believe in the technical background Bet365 lotto review of artificial intelligence and big data，The theoretical influence of evidence decision -making will be further enhanced。After all，Any rational person will not ignore the role of evidence。

　(Author Unit: School of Philosophy and Social Development, South China Normal University)