Expectation management refers to government departments strengthening information communication with the public，Guide public expectations closer to bet365 horse racing odds goals，Thus improving bet365 horse racing odds efficiency，To better achieve bet365 horse racing odds goals。Since the new era，China pays increasing attention to expectation management。The “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” is clearly stated，To “improve communication with the market，Enhance predictability and transparency”；The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes，We must “improve the macro bet365 horse racing odds formulation and implementation mechanism，Pay attention to expectation management and guidance”。Government work reports in recent years、The Central Economic Work Conference and the Monetary bet365 horse racing odds Implementation Report of the People’s Bank of China also frequently mentioned the need to strengthen expectations management。

There are essential differences between the expectation management with Chinese characteristics that has gradually been formed based on China’s economic development practice and the expectation management in Western countries。Different from Western countries，China’s macro policy system is richer，Including both stabilization policies aimed at short-term countercyclical adjustments，Also includes bet365 horse racing odds policies aimed at improving long-term bet365 horse racing odds dynamics，Also includes structural policies aimed at regulating the economic structure。Because of this，From the perspective of control scope，Expectation management with Chinese characteristics is not limited to monetary policy，But it is widely used in the entire macro-control system；From the perspective of regulation period，Expectation management with Chinese characteristics is not limited to short-term expectation management，Also includes mid- and long-term expectation management。In general，Expectation management with Chinese characteristics better makes up for the shortcomings of Western expectation management，With distinctive features and advantages。

In terms of short-term expectation management，China’s policy transparency continues to improve，The use of forward guidance is also increasing，The growing role of short-term expectation management in stabilizing policy effectiveness。On the one hand，Policy transparency continues to improve，The central bank and the Ministry of Finance have strengthened their communication with the market。Statistical findings on news published in the communication section of the central bank’s website，The central bank released a total of 275 news items before 2010，More than 300 news items published every year after 2010，Some years there are more than 400。The Ministry of Finance conducted policy interpretations only 3 times and 10 times in 2006 and 2007 respectively，On average more than 30 times per year after 2008。On the other hand，The use of forward guidance has also been significantly strengthened。Take 2022 as an example，Faced with increasing pressure on RMB depreciation，The central bank has guided market expectations well，Driving the RMB exchange rate to gradually return to a reasonable level。Of course，China’s short-term expectation management, especially monetary policy expectation management, still has some room for improvement。Policy transparency，Monetary policy still adopts a multi-target system，It’s not clear enough which goal is the main anchor，This may disrupt public expectations，Need to further clarify the main goals of monetary policy anchoring。Forward guidance，The central bank can provide more clear guidance on the bet365 horse racing odds of money quantity and interest rate trends in the future，To better guide public expectations。

　In terms of annual expected management，China sets forward-looking macro policies for the whole year，Performed the expected guiding role well，And the management effect is better than expected in the West。Annual expectation management is an institutional arrangement with Chinese characteristics。China’s Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of the previous year clarified the overall positioning and tone of macro policies for that year。The government work report released at the "Two Sessions" at the beginning of the year will quantitatively set important macro bet365 horse racing odds goals and bet365 horse racing odds tools for the year。From years of bet365 horse racing odds practice，In most cases，The final realization of each indicator at the end of the year is very close to the forward-looking preset goals。This shows，The public has gradually formed an expectation mechanism to predict the economic performance and bet365 horse racing odds formulation throughout the year based on the goals set at the beginning of the year，Enables forward-looking bet365 horse racing odds goals to play a key guiding role in public expectations for that year。

In terms of long-term expectation management，China formulates long-term development plans through the “Five-Year Plan” and ultra-long-term strategic development plan，Plays a forward-looking role in guiding long-term macro policies。This kind of expectation management method is relatively rare in the world's major economies，But the effect is significant。The "Five-Year Plan" mainly plans for major national construction projects，Set long-term goals and directions for national economic development prospects。China began formulating its first “Five-Year Plan” in 1953，From the “11th Five-Year Plan”，"Five-year Plan" changed to "Five-Year Plan"。Reviewing China’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan，The overall goal is well accomplished，Remarkable results in economic and social development，Effectively improve the efficiency of long-term expectation management。The ultra-long-term development strategy is China’s characteristics and China’s advantages。The Thirteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed the "three-step" strategy for China's economic construction，Solving the problem of food and clothing、Entering the moderately prosperous stage、It will take about fifty years to enter the ranks of moderately developed countries。The 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is based on the new actual situation，For the first time, the "two centenary goals" were clearly proposed，And further clarified the "three-step" idea，That is, building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in the first ten years、Reach the level of prosperity and moderate prosperity in the second decade、Basically achieve modernization by 2050。The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made a new top-level design，2035 as the boundary，Divide 2020 to the middle of this century into two stages。The first stage，From 2020 to 2035，On the basis of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way，Fifteen more years of struggle，Basically realize socialist modernization。This is fifteen years ahead of the previous “three-step” strategic deployment；The second stage，From 2035 to mid-century，On the basis of basically realizing modernization，Fifteen more years of struggle，Build our country into a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful modern socialist country。The first and second steps of the "three-step" strategy are on schedule、Guaranteed quality、Complete in a safe manner，The third step is more confidently announced that it will be completed fifteen years ahead of schedule，These have greatly strengthened the credibility of ultra-long-term expectation management，Making the public believe that economic structural adjustment and achieving long-term bet365 horse racing odds targets are feasible、Trusted。

Visible，China’s macro bet365 horse racing odds expectation management has distinctive Chinese characteristics，Especially the annual expectation management and ultra-long-term expectation management methods are unique、Remarkable results。For this，Valuable practical experience should be fully summarized，Extract the expectation management theory with Chinese characteristics，And used to improve macro bet365 horse racing odds efficiency and promote high-quality economic development。

Since the 21st century, especially after the 2008 international financial crisis，China and other major economies have experienced the new phenomenon of "recession due to structural imbalance" to varying degrees，Concretely reflected in three typical characteristics。First, the output gap and inflation gap basically remain moderately negative；Second, the potential growth trend is slowing down；Third, the problem of economic structural imbalance is highlighted，Resulting in the potential growth gap being negative in most periods。China’s economy may fall into a situation where short-term actual growth (aggregate demand) and long-term potential growth (aggregate supply) are declining at the same time，And form a spiral negative cycle，Leading to a greater risk of economic growth declining or stalling。In this case，If we copy the expected management model of Western countries，It is possible to strengthen the above spiral mechanism。Classic Western macro policy theory suggestions，It is necessary to set the expected economic growth target according to the bet365 horse racing odds。If there is an adverse economic shock such as deterioration of the external environment，The expected economic growth rate should be set slightly lower than the bet365 horse racing odds to ensure the rationality and feasibility of growth。But as time goes by，bet365 horse racing odds will decline further due to insufficient actual growth rate，Short-term aggregate demand shortfall will evolve into reduced long-term supply capacity。If the economy continues to be adversely affected，Then it is expected to continue to adjust downwards，Thus leading to an excessively rapid spiral decline in economic growth and potential growth。Western expectations management centers on monetary policy transparency and forward guidance on future interest rate settings，Not only is it difficult to reverse the trend of rapid decline in potential growth，Policymakers and the public may form lower economic growth expectations due to the potential decline in growth，There is therefore a lack of incentives to correct errors in macro policy setting。

Anticipation management with Chinese characteristics can effectively increase economic bet365 horse racing odds，Helping China’s economy recover steadily and toward a better recovery，The key is to do the following three aspects well。

First，Moderately raise the expected economic growth target，This is the basis for implementing expectation management to increase economic growth。Based on the research report on "Macro Policy "Three Strategies in One" Index and Macro Policy Outlook for the First Half of 2023"，The two-year average actual growth rate in 2022 and 2023 should reach the two-year average bet365 horse racing odds (5.3%），A more ideal goal is to make the two-year average actual growth rate reach a reasonable level of the two-year bet365 horse racing odds (5.6%）。further，Next 3-5 years，The output gap should reach 0.3%—0.5% is the target。The theory of "three strategies in one" of macro policy shows，bet365 horse racing odds is not the ceiling of actual economic growth rate，The actual economic growth rate does not cannot exceed the bet365 horse racing odds，It is just not recommended to exceed the reasonable level of bet365 horse racing odds。Set the annual economic growth target to exceed the bet365 horse racing odds by about 0.3%—0.5% level can still ensure that the economic growth rate is below a reasonable level of bet365 horse racing odds，Therefore it is feasible。

Second，Gradually increase the expected economic bet365 horse racing odds target in the next 3-5 years，Rather than just one step。There are mainly two reasons。One，Continuously improve the credibility of expectation management。As one of the outstanding representatives of Chinese traditional culture，The "Tao Te Ching" has repeatedly emphasized the importance of the credibility of expected management policies from the perspective of rules and governance more than 2,000 years ago。Raising the expected economic bet365 horse racing odds target year by year will help reduce the difficulty of adjustment in the current year，More helpful to improve policy credibility，Thus improving the efficiency of macro-control。Part 2，Ensure that short-term aggregate demand can continue to affect long-term aggregate supply，Promote the spiral increase of aggregate demand and aggregate supply，Thus helping to increase potential bet365 horse racing odds，And restore it to a reasonable level。

　Third，Enhanced use of structural policies，Implement structural bet365 horse racing odds expectation management。Only start with structural policies，With the support and cooperation of structural reforms，In order to break through the "blocking points" that restrict consumption and investment，Really improving consumer and investor expectations，Thereby truly increasing aggregate demand。Not only that，Strengthening the management of structural bet365 horse racing odds expectations will also help stabilize policies to achieve better results。The prerequisite for strengthening stabilizing policies such as monetary bet365 horse racing odds and fiscal bet365 horse racing odds，It is the transmission channel that can be cleared。It is precisely the imbalance of economic structure such as the imbalance of income distribution structure that exists，As a result, the transmission of these stable policies is not smooth enough。Therefore，Structural bet365 horse racing odds focuses on building a virtuous cycle of aggregate demand structure and aggregate supply structure，It will help to clear the "blocking points" in the transmission mechanism of monetary bet365 horse racing odds and fiscal bet365 horse racing odds。

　(The author is Vice President and Professor of Capital University of Economics and Business)