It is expected to be managed to communicate with the public through strengthening information，Guide the public to expect to move closer to policy goals，to improve policy efficiency，To better achieve policy goals。Since the new era，China attaches great importance to expected management。"Thirteenth Five -Year Plan" plan is clearly proposed，To improve communication with the market，Enhanced expectations and transparency ";" Fourteen Five -Year Plan "plan emphasizes，We must "improve macro policy formulation and implementation mechanism，Pay attention to expected management and guidance "。Government work report in recent years、The Central Economic Work Conference and the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Implementation Report also frequently mentioned that it is necessary to strengthen the expected management。

Founding and comprehensive management of Chinese characteristics based on the practice of China's economic development is the essential difference between the expected management of Western countries。Different from Western countries，China's macro policy system is richer，It includes both a stable policy aimed at short -term reverse cycle adjustment，It also includes the growth policy designed to improve the growth of long -term growth momentum，It also includes structural policies designed to regulate the economic structure。Also because of this，From the perspective of regulation，Forecast management of Chinese characteristics is not limited to monetary policy，Instead, it is widely used in the entire macro regulation system; from the perspective of regulatory period，Forecast management of Chinese characteristics is not limited to short -term expected management，It also includes mid -to -long -term expected management。Generally speaking，It is better to make up for the management defects of Western expected management in good predictions of Bet365 lotto review Chinese characteristics，With distinctive characteristics and advantages。

For short -term expected management，China's policy transparency continues to increase，The use of forward -looking guidance is also continuously enhanced，Short -term expected management in terms of stability policy effectiveness is increasingly improved。On the one hand，Policy transparency continues to increase，Highlighting as the central bank and the Ministry of Finance strengthened communication with the market。Statistical discovery of news released by the central bank website communication and exchange sector，Before 2010, the central bank released a total of 275 news，There are more than 300 news released every year after 2010，Some years have more than 400 pieces。The Ministry of Finance's policy interpretation in 2006 and 2007 was only 3 times and 10 times, respectively，an average of more than 30 times per year after 2008。On the other hand，The use of forward -looking guidance is also significantly strengthened。Take 2022 as an example，In the face of increasing pressure on the depreciation of the RMB，The central bank has better guided market expectations，Driving the RMB exchange rate gradually returns to reasonable level。Of course，China ’s short -term expected management, especially monetary policy expected management, there is still some improvement space。Policy transparency，Monetary policy still adopts multiple target system，Which target is the main anchor is not clear enough，This may disrupt public expectations，The main goals of the anchoring of monetary policy need to be further clarified。Forward -looking guidance，The central bank can more clearly give guidance to the growth rate of currencies and interest rates in the future period，to better guide public expectations。

In terms of annual expected management，China makes forward -looking settings for the annual macro policy，better played the expected guidance function，And better than Western expected management。Annual expected management is an institutional arrangement with Chinese characteristics。The Central Economic Working Council held by China at the end of the year before the Bet365 app download previous year clearly clarified the overall positioning and tone of the macro policy of that year。The government work report released at the "Two Sessions" at the beginning of the year will quantify the important macro policy goals and policy tools of the year。From the perspective of many years of policy practice，Most of the cases，The final implementation of each indicator at the end of the year is very close to the forward -looking preset goal。This indicates，The public has gradually formed a expected mechanism for predicting the annual economic operation and policy formulation based on pre -annual pre -annual goals，The policy goal of the forward -looking settings can play a key guidance role for the public expectations of the year。

For long -term expected management，China formulates long -term development plans through the "five -year plan" and ultra -long -term strategic development plan，A forward -looking guidance on long -term macro policies。This expected management method is relatively rare in the world's major economies，But the effect is significant。"Five -Year Plan" is mainly planned for major national construction projects，Formulate long -term goals and directions for the vision of national economic development。China has formulated the first "Five -Year Plan" in 1953，From "Eleventh Five -Year Plan"，"Five -Year Plan" to "Five -Year Plan"。Looking back on China's thirteen five -year plan，The completion of the overall goal is better，Significant results in economic and social development，Effectively improved the efficiency of long -term expected management。Super long -term development strategy is the place of Chinese characteristics and Chinese advantages。The 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed the "three steps" strategy of China's economic construction，Solve the problem of food and clothing、Enter the well -off stage、Enter the ranks of middle -developed countries with about fifty years。The 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is based on the new actual situation，For the first time, the "two hundred years" struggle goals，and further clarified the "Three Steps" ideas，That is, the first ten bet365 Play online games years of comprehensive construction of a well -off、The second decade reaches the level of wealthy well -off、Basically realized modernization by 2050。The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made a new top -level design，Breast with 2035，Divided from 2020 to the middle of this century into two stages。The first stage，From 2020 to 2035，On the basis of building a well -off society in an all -round way，Fifteen years of struggle，Basically realized socialist modernization。This is 15 years in advance than the previous "three steps" strategic deployment; the second stage，From 2035 to the middle of this century，On the basis of basically modernization，Fifteen years of struggle，Building our country into a rich, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modern power country。The first and second steps of the strategy of "Three Steps" strategy are as scheduled、Guarantee、Complete it for a guarantee，The third step is more confidently announced that it will be completed fifteen years in advance，These have greatly strengthened the credibility of ultra -long -term expected management，Makes the public believe that the economic structure adjustment and achieve long -term growth goal is feasible、credible。

Visible，China's macro policy expected management has distinctive Bet365 lotto review Chinese characteristics，Especially the annual expected management and long -term expected management practices unique、Significant results。For this，To fully summarize valuable practical experience，Refine the theory of expected management with Chinese characteristics，and used to improve the efficiency of macro policies and promote high -quality economic development。

Since the 21st century, especially after the 2008 international financial crisis，China and other major economies have emerged to varying degrees of "recession under structural imbalance".，Specifically reflected as three typical features。First, the output gap and inflation gap basically maintain a moderate negative state; the second is that the potential growth rate slows down; the third is the problem of imbalance of economic structure，The potential growth rate gap is negative during most periods。China'bet365 best casino games s economy may fall into the short -term actual growth rate (total demand) and long -term potential growth rate (total supply).，and form a spiral negative cycle，As a result, the economic growth rate has declined significantly or the risk of stall。In this case，If you copy the expected management mode of Western countries，It is possible to strengthen the above spiral mechanism。Western classic macro policy theory recommendations，To set the expected target of economic growth according to the potential growth rate。If an unfavorable economic impact such as the exterior environment worsening occurs，The expected economic growth should be set to a level that is slightly lower than the potential growth rate to ensure the rationality and feasibility of growth。But over time，The potential growth rate will further decrease due to insufficient actual growth rate，Insufficient short -term demand will evolve into long -term supply capacity reduction。If the economy continues to be adversely impacted，So the expectation will continue to adjust downward，As a result, the economic growth and potential growth rate of the spiral are too fast。Western expected management is based on the transparency of monetary policy and a forward -looking guidance for future interest rate settings，Not only is it difficult to reverse the trend of potential growth too fast，And the policy maker and the public will form a low economic growth expectation due to the decline in potential growth，Incentives to lack errors to correct macro policy settings。

Expectation of Chinese characteristics can effectively improve economic growth，The situation of helping China's economy steadily recover to recover，The key lies in the following three aspects。

First，Moderate increases economic growth expected goals，This is the basis for implementing the expected management to increase economic growth。Research Report on "The" Three Strategy Unions "Index and Macro Policy Outlook of Macro Policy in the first half of 2023"，The average actual growth rate of two years in 2022 and 2023 reached the average potential growth rate of two years (5.3%)，The more ideal goal is to enable the reasonable level of two years of Bet365 lotto review actual growth rate to a reasonable level of two years of potential growth (5.6%)。Further，In the next 3-5 years，Targeting the output gap reaches 0.3%-0.5%as the target。The theory of the "Three Strateies" theory of macro policy，The potential growth rate is not the ceiling of actual economic growth，The actual economic growth rate can not exceed the potential growth rate，It is not recommended to exceed the reasonable level of the potential growth rate。Set the annual economic growth goal to exceed the potential growth rate of about 0.3%-0.5%, which can still ensure that the economic growth rate is at a reasonable level of the potential growth rate，Therefore, it is feasible。

2，Gradually increase the expected target of economic growth in the next 3-5 years，instead of one step in place。There are two main reasons。One，Constantly improve the credibility of the expected management。As one of the representatives of Chinese excellent traditional culture，"Tao Te Ching" as early as 2000 years ago, the perspective of the rule and the virtue of governance repeatedly emphasized the importance of the credibility of the expected management policy。Raising the economic growth rate year by year will help reduce the difficulty of adjusting that year，It is more helpful to increase policy credibility，to improve the efficiency of macro regulation。Its two，Ensure that short -term total demand can continue to affect long -term total supply，Promoting total demand and total supply spiral rising，to help increase the potential growth rate，and restore it to a reasonable level。

third，Strengthen the use of structural policies，Implementation of structural policy expected management。Only start with structural policy，Add the support of structural reforms，can we open up the "blocking point" of consumption and investment，Really improve the expectations of consumers and investors，So as to truly improve the total demand。Not only that，Strengthening structural policies expected management also helps to stabilize policy better。Stable policies such as monetary policy and fiscal policy have increased premise，It is its conduction channel to clear。It is the existence of economic structural bet365 Play online games imbalances such as income distribution structure imbalance，As a result, the conduction of these stable policies is not smooth enough。Therefore，Structural policies are mainly grasped by building a virtuous circle of total demand structure and total supply structure，It will help to clear the "blocking point" on monetary policy and fiscal policy transmission mechanisms。

　(The author is the vice president and professor of the University of Economic and Trade University)