In traditional monetary policy，Most central banks worldwide uses super short -term currency market interest rates such as inter -bank borrowings as the benchmark interest rate，Affecting financial market interest rates and real economy。The official benchmark interest rate is a comprehensive reflection of the fund's fundamentals and the central bank regulatory intent.。Although some scholars believe that compared to interest rates，Currency has a stronger role in stabilizing market prices、The central bank's ability to control short -term interest rates and long -term interest rates is limited，But the official benchmark interest rate trend since the subprime mortgage crisis indicates，The central bank's regulation of short -term interest rates is enhanced rather than weakening，Create a means of forward -looking guidance for monetary policy to strengthen the regulation of long -term interest rates。

Since the financial crisis in 2008，The central banks of the major countries have opened non -traditional monetary policy，The core content is that the central bank comprehensively uses traditional monetary policy tools and non -traditional monetary policy tools，Direct strengthening the regulation of long -term interest rates such as 10 -year Treasury yields。Compared to short -term interest rates，Long -term interest rates and the real economy are closer，Long -term interest rates，It reflects the intention of the central bank's use of monetary policy to stimulate the economy。In this process，Short -term interest rates and long -term interest rates have undergone different changes，In -depth analysis of the relationship between the two，Monetary policy regulation means valid or not to see the leopard。The nominal policy interest rate of central banks of various countries continues to differentiate，The relationship between the interest rate bet365 best casino games of global financial market interest rate and policy interest rate is becoming more and more loose，Especially the loose relationship between long -term interest rates and short -term benchmark interest rates led by the central bank has a long history。So，Is it necessary to ask an important question: Can the central bank regulate long -term interest rates?

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Classical economists believe that long -term interest rates are from real economic variables (savings、Investment, etc.) Decisions，Independent monetary policy，Monetary policy does not have the ability to affect long -term interest rates。For a long time in the past，Economists often believe that monetary policy can directly act on short -term market interest rates，through monetary policy transmission mechanism，indirectly affects long -term interest rates and real economy。Usually unable to use monetary policy to directly regulate long -term interest rates，Long -term interest rates are also difficult to use as a monetary policy tool to be flexibly used。

An important reason for the currency authorities to control long -term interest rates is that TERM Spread, which is closely related to long -term interest rates (TERM Spread), has an important impact on the financial market expectations。The policy after the loan crisis highlights the willingness to regulate this area。Popular speaking，Dialogue spread is the steep degree of the yield curve。When the short -term interest rate is higher than the long -term interest rate，The market will usually think that this is a sign of economic recession。In specific practice，Because it does not need to re -estimate the time limit premium，The difference between the 10 -year Treasury yield of the US 10 -year Treasure，It is often used as a tool for predicting whether the economy declines。If the difference is continuously narrowed，Even a negative number is the yield curve inverted、reverse，Generally, the probability of economic bet365 Play online games recession in the future is higher。There is indeed a certain correlation between the long -term interest rate and the economic recession。From the perspective of investment，Bonds as security assets，Usually the main investment selection of people's avoidance of long -term risks。So，When people expect that the probability of future economic recession is greater，often increases holdings of security assets such as long -term national debt，Therefore, the yield and long -term interest rate of long -term government bonds are lowered。

Long-term interest rates are usually decomposed into short-term interest rate long-term levels and term premium premium (Term Premium)。Theoretically speaking，The central bank can control long -term interest rates by controlling these two factors or one of them。For example，Under the condition of no arbitrage，The central bank only needs to regulate the short -term interest rate，There is no opportunity for arbitrage in the market，Short -term interest rate conduction mechanism to long -term interest rates is smooth，The central bank can eventually regulate long -term interest rates。

The opposite view is considered，Long -term interest rate only comes from long -term short -term interest rates，Another part from the equilibrium actual interest rate or natural interest rate。So，There are many factors that affect long -term interest rates，For example, productivity、Population Structure、Consumer preference、The market's expectations of future risks, etc.，These factors cannot regulate directly。

I think，Whether the short -term interest rate can be smoothly transmitted to long -term interest rates、The key to whether there is no arbitrage balance，Whether the bond market is fully competitive、Whether it is perfect。If the bond market is fully developed，The expected effect of the central bank's monetary policy announcement、Maintenance of long -term interest rates for several regulations，bet365 best casino games Investors in the bond market will form a relatively complete expectations，Add long -term interest rate regulation to expect，Therefore, it is reflected in bond transactions。Bet from this，The announcement effect of the central bank regulating the yield of long -term government bonds superimposed the operation of the long -term national debt，The substantially drives long -term interest rates lower，Market expectations can also be implemented。

From the perspective of globally，For the past 20 years，Long -term interest rates in the world have been falling down。This phenomenon is caused by the factors of the real economy or unconventional monetary policy，You need to analyze further。If the monetary policy can affect and regulate the long -term interest rate，Long -term interest rate as a monetary policy tool is feasible，Non -traditional monetary policy that regulates long -term interest rates may become the normal monetary policy of the future。

　　Different policies in the United States and Japan are different

2008 to October 2018，The Federal Reserve bought a total of 10 -year long -term national bonds 122.58 billion U.S. dollars。where，The highest early outbreak of the financial crisis，There are fewer years to prepare to withdraw from quantitative easing policy，But it has remained stable since 2016。At the same time，The yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States remains steadily decrease，But obviously lagging behind the time point for the Fed's purchase of 10 -year Treasury bonds。Quantitative easing policy for long -term interest rates is not obvious。From the original intention of the Fed's policy，Reducing long -term interest rates is one of the basic goals of its quantitative easing policy。Scholars also conduct an empirical analysis of whether the long -term interest rate can be lowered to a certain extent.,But limited to the actual implementation period of the quantitative easing policy is short，Whether it reduces the long -term interest rate and fail to be confirmed。

From the historical perspective，bet365 best casino games The changes in 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States are closely related to the change of the federal fund interest rate in the 1980s，Since then, the relationship between the two has become increasingly loose。

early 20th century，The Federal Reserve has issued a statement，The change in the rate of 10 -year Treasury bonds is loose with the change of the federal fund interest rate，It indicates that the existence of monetary policy transmission is "blocking"。and the 1980s was the transformation of the Fed's monetary policy，The start of the federal fund interest rate as the start of the financial market。So，Scholars inference，At that time, the US monetary policy was in line with the "Goodhart's Law"，That is any expected、Monetary policies with regulatory intentions will be invalid，It will not have any impact on the actual economic variable。So，The federal fund interest rate regulated by the Federal Reserve policy cannot be properly transmitted to the 10 -year Treasury yield determined by economic factors。Gedhart's Law has also appeared in the monetary policy transformation process of the central banks of other countries。Policy benchmark interest rates with greater intervention in the central bank often cannot affect the long -term interest rate determined by the market itself。affects long -term interest rates，It is an important policy goal of many national central banks at present。

The Bank of Japan has also tried to directly intervene in the long -term bond market，Bar affects long -term national bond yields to stimulate economic development。Due to currency tightening，Japan has maintained low interest rates for a long time、negative interest rate policy。After 2016，Exit Quality Loose Monetary Policy，strive to buy long -term national debt、Sell short -term national debt，Press the entire yield curve，Realize long -term interest rates、Control of long -term interest rate。In order to achieve 2%inflation target，The Bank of Japan has adopted an innovative monetary bet365 live casino games policy measure such as "quantitative quality and loose monetary policy+negative interest rate policy"。

Since 2008，A total of 105 trillion yen of 10 -year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance of Japan to the Bank of Japan，an average of about 9 trillion yen per year。At the same time，Japan's 10 -year Treasury bond yields fell straight，After the announcement of the interest rate policy in 2016，Falling into a negative interest rate area。The role of negative interest rate policy is obvious。

Niota Toshiko Kuroda President of Japan has publicly said，The central bank only achieves control of long -term national bond yields，can a actual impact on the real interest rate，can it have a positive effect on enterprises and residents，Really drive the Japanese economy out of deflation。2018，The Bank of Japan decided to modify the large -scale currency easing policy at the monetary policy conference，and allow long -term interest rates to rise to a certain extent，The effective upper limit of the yield of national bonds is increased from 0.1%to 0.2%。The reason is that the yield of US debt yields is changed，Drive the increase in yields in Japanese Treasury bonds。In the competition for the control of long -term government bond yields，The fierce game of the market and the central bank can be seen。

Who determines the long -term interest rate，Is a monetary policy、The real economy or the financial market itself? From the theoretical and practical point of view，Development in the bond market、In perfect circumstances，The central bank can pass the expected management and negative interest rate policy、Quality and easing monetary policy and other means to regulate long -term interest rates。The central bank's regulation effect on long -term interest rates is very obvious，But the market game also indicates，In the case of considering international capital flow，The central bank is more difficult to regulate the long -term interest rate in China。

　　(Author Unit: Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、National Financial and Development Laboratory)