Recent，There is another wave of pessimistic theory of "singing and declining the Chinese economy" internationally，I believe that "China is in the decline of the balance sheet", "the disappearance of the demographic dividend", "the top of the Chinese economy", etc.。，We need to comprehensively and objective dialectical understanding。Needless to say，At present, China does face a complex economic situation，But this does not mean that the Chinese economy will decline。On the contrary，China's economy is rising to get better，Development prospects Bright，This has profound historical logic、Theoretical logic and real logic。

　Bet365 lotto review

Since the reform and opening up，The International Public Opinion Field has appeared several orgasms of "singing and declining the Chinese economy"。Look at it now，Its argument is wrong。

For example，In the late 1980s and early 1980s，The situation facing China's economic development is severe。International，Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union occur in drama，International socialism is at a low tide; the domestic economy is in the adjustment period of governance and rectification，Coupled with the influence of Western countries on my country's "economic sanctions"，1989 and 1990 my country's economic growth was only 4.2%and 3.9%。In this background，Some international remarks on "China's economic collapse" are very arrogant。and the fact is，With Deng Xiaoping's southern conversation and the party's 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the reform goals of the socialist market economy system，China's economy has maintained rapid growth for a long time，1991-1995 The average annual growth of GDP 12.3%，Five -year growth rate is 9.3%、14.2%、13.9%、13.0%、11%。

Another example，1997-2001，major changes in the situation facing China's economic development。International，The Asian financial crisis broke out in February 1997，At the same time, the scientific and technological revolution represented by information technology is rapidly advanced，The rapid development of economic globalization; in the country，my country's commodity supply and demand pattern from long -term shortage to the main overall supply is greater than demand，The problem of overcapacity is prominent，Operation at a low price，The economic growth rate decreases。In this background，Some bet365 best casino games foreign economists throw "China's economic collapse theory" again。and the fact is，Insufficient internal needs at that time、Flowing plumment、The situation of weak economic growth，The Party Central Committee has decisively implemented the policy of expanding domestic demand，Take strong measures to promote state -owned enterprises at the same time、Government agency、Financial System、Housing system、Financial tax system and other reforms，Actively join the World Trade Organization。Deepening reform、Under the common effect of expanding openness and macro policy regulation，my country not only hosted the impact of the financial crisis，Prevent the decline in economic growth，It also entered a round of economic high -speed growth cycle after 2000。2001-2005 GDP increased by 8.3%respectively、9.1%、10%、10.1%and 11.4%，Average increased by 9.8%in five years。Especially the rapid development of an open economy， 2001-2005 The average annual increase of imports and exports by 24.6%，The significant growth of foreign capital has strongly drove the domestic economic development。

Another example，It was impacted by the international financial crisis after 2007，China's economic downward pressure is large，The growth rate of GDP in China is 12.7%in 2006、14.2%in 2007 dropped to 9.7%in 2008。In this background，Some foreign scholars believe that China's economy will decline。For example，Nobel Prize winner of Economics Paul Cruggman published an article "Will China collapse in the New York Times" in the New York Times? 》 (Will China Break?)，It is believed that the development model of China's excessive dependence on exports at that time will be impacted，The burst of real estate bubbles at the same time will further lead to economic collapse。and the fact is，The Chinese government implements active fiscal policy、Moderate loose monetary policy，Effectively resolve the impact of the international financial crisis，The economy is maintained smoothly and rapidly。2010，China's GDP exceeds 40 trillion yuan，Become the second largest economy in the world、The largest country in manufacturing; open to the outside world to a new level，2006-2010 The average annual increase of import and export of 15.9%，and became the world's first major cargo trading country in 2010。

Another example，After 2010，With the changes in economic development conditions such as my country's labor force，Coupled with the impact of the continuous fermentation of the international financial crisis and the subsequent European sovereign debt Bet365 app download crisis，my country's economic development has entered a new normal，Around 2015, my country's economic operation appears "four drops and one liter" situation。In this background，The sound of "singing and declining the Chinese economy" appears again internationally，I believe that China's economy will face stagnation or even economic crisis。and the fact is，For the situation at the time，The Party Central Committee has made major decision -making deployments to promote the supply -side structural reform in a timely manner，Adopt "Three, one, one drop, one supplement" and "broken、Li、Downsay "and other measures，Promote economic stability and rise，Economic development enters high -quality development track，The effectiveness of supply -side structural reform has been widely recognized and positive for international and domestic recognition。

　　"Singing and Deadial Theory" has a misunderstanding of recognition

Why is the "singing and declining Chinese economy" mistake again? The reason，It is cognitive deviation and misunderstanding of the strong toughness and development laws of China's economy。

First, simply use Western theory to analyze and judge China's economic development prospects。Western economic theory is mainly a summary of the experience experience experience of developed countries in the West，Have a certain reference meaning，But it is not the "Golden Science Jade Law"，It can’t be simply copied to developing countries, especially in large economies like China.。It cannot be determined that as long as the economic development has appeared in the development of developed countries,，Economic recession and other phenomena will inevitably occur。Multiple proof of historical experience，Western economic theory cannot be deified，Many developing countries do not combine their national conditions and simply move hard sets，Never achieve economic development success，It is even counterproductive，Some countries have long been in economic stagnation and political turmoil for a long time。And China always adheres to the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics，Adhere to the reform direction of the socialist market economy system，Promoting Chinese -style modernization，Great achievements of the world's attention，The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation shows the prospect of light。

The second is excessive exaggeration short -term、Local Questions，underestimated the toughness of China's economic development。Look at the economic situation from development and operation，It depends on short -term，It depends on the long Bet365 lotto review -term; it depends on the local，It depends on the overall situation。Can't use past experience to simply apply it to China，Not to see the problems and risks of China's economy with "microscope" and "myopia mirror"。In fact，Looking back now，Many problems have the impact on the Chinese economy far from being imagined at that time。Reasons for the reason，In China is a large economy，The socialist system with Chinese characteristics has unique advantages in responding to major risks and challenges，and China's economic development is still in a rising period。So，China's economy has a strong impact resistance and self -stability、Self -repair ability，After encountering impact，Short -term adjustment is inevitable，But you can always open up new development space。

Third, insufficient research on China's economic development understanding，Some existing subjective prejudice or narrow self -interest。Chinese -style modernization has the common features of modernization of various countries，More Chinese characteristics based on your own national conditions。So，Analysis and study of China's economy needs to put economic laws with China's national conditions、Combining the development stage。But some "singing and declining theories" lack a comprehensive and in -depth research on the Chinese economy，Some scholars rarely come to China。For example，Cruggman issued a statement in 2015，"I am not a Chinese expert，Many things I talk about listen to others "。In addition，There is also a part of the "singing and declining theory" for the eyeball、Earning traffic，Even someone else uses "singing and declining China" to make a profit in the capital market。

　　China's economy will not change for a long time

Current，my country's economy is entering the critical period of transition to high -quality development。In this process，It will inevitably encounter various problems and challenges，I even experience the necessary pain，But China's economic development has confidence、There are advantages、More opportunities，Its long -term good trend will not change。

First，Basic stability of economic development，New Power Energy continues to grow and grow。After more than 70 years of its establishment of New China, the rapid development of more than 40 years of reform and opening up，my country has accumulated a huge material technology foundation，Domestic market demand is huge，Maintain a steady economic growth for our country、Counter -risk challenge provides solid support。For example，At present, my country's car ownership reaches bet365 live casino games 336 million vehicles，Update calculation at 10%every year，The market size exceeds 30 million units。From the perspective of housing needs，Although the problem of "is there" residential housing is basically solved，But it has not completely solved the problem of "good"，Rigid and improved housing demand still has greater development potential。United States、Japan、Eurozone and other developed economies have completed urbanization，But the per capita residential consumption expenditure accounted for more than 30%of household consumption expenditures，and our country is currently only about 25%。From the perspective of technological innovation，Although some countries have continuously increased their containment of my country's high -tech industries，Promote "Decoming" and "Broken Chain"，But it is difficult to stop my country's scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrade steps。In fact，From historical experience，Innovation is largely forced，Some countries suppress the Chinese technology companies，Instead, it will accelerate my country's independent innovation pace。2022，my country's R & D expenditure is 3.08 trillion yuan，increased by 10.11%year -on -year，The proportion of GDP in China reaches 2.5%，The national average of the Organization Organization Organization。At the same time，my country's industrial transformation and upgrading solidly advance，Strategic emerging industries continue to grow and grow，Already in the digital economy、New track such as green low -carbon economy is at the world's leading level。

2，Human Resources、Capital formation、Infrastructure、Comprehensive advantages of the industrial system and other comprehensive advantages，Great economic development potential。Although the total population and structure have changed significantly，It will have a certain impact on economic growth。But to see，Compared to the population scale，The key factor that affects the medium and long -term growth of the economy is the quality of the population。2023，my country ’s labor age population is still 865 million years old，where，The population who receives higher education exceeds 240 million people。From the perspective of investment，In 2023, my country's savings rate is still at a high level，Great investment potential。In addition，After years of development，my country has formed a relatively complete and large -scale infrastructure network，Comprehensive Transportation Network、Power Generation bet365 live casino games Installation、Grid、5G network and other scale ranks first in the world，A large scale was built at the same time、Industrial system with complete systems and strong supporting capabilities。According to the calculation of many research institutions at home and abroad，Under the benchmark situation，The potential growth rate of my country's economic growth during the "15th Five -Year Plan" period was about 4.5%，"Sixteen Five -Year Plan" period is about 4.0%; in the case of optimism，"Fifteenth Five -Year Plan" and "Sixteen Five -Year Plan" period can reach 4.8%and 4.3%, respectively.，It can basically realize socialist modernization in 2035。

third，Facing new strategic opportunities，New industrialization、New urbanization development space is broad。First, the rapid development of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial changes brings new opportunities。Current，artificial intelligence、Life Science、A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial changes represented by new energy and other representatives have entered a breakthrough development period，Digitalization、Intelligent、Green transformation promotes in depth，Give play to our country、Develop new quality productive forces、Improve the full factor productivity、Promoting high -quality economic development provides major strategic opportunities。Repeated proof of historical experience，In the previous scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution，There are always some countries to seize opportunities，Later I went up，Realize leapfrog development。Second, the demand structure upgrade brings new opportunities。"Fifteenth Five -Year Plan" period，my country will enter historically into high -income countries，The middle income group is expected to exceed 500 million people，With the continuous improvement of residents' income level and the continuous improvement of the social security system，The people's demand for high -quality products and services will continue to increase，Education、Medical、Culture、Travel、Service industries such as pension will develop rapidly。Third, the development of urban transformation brings new opportunities。In 2023, my country's urbanization rate is 66.16%，More than 10 percentage points in the level of developed countries。At the same time，Urbanization development quality has increased potential，In 2023, the urbanization rate of my country's household registration population is only 47.7%，There are still nearly 300 million agricultural transfer population in urban migrant workers who have not realized bet365 live casino games civicization。According to the relevant research of the Organization Organization，If these people have urban household registration and enjoy the same basic public services as urban residents，Its actual consumption level will increase by about 30%。In addition，Global governance system change、Green low -carbon transformation, etc. also brings new opportunities for my country's economic development。

Of course, you should also see，my country's economic development still faces new difficulties and challenges。But this is a problem in development，is the "trouble" of growth，The mainstream and general trends of economic development have not changed。History and reality proof，China's economy has always grown in wind and rain、Traveling in the middle，External pressure of high wind and waves，It will definitely stimulate the strong kinetic energy of China's economic transformation and development。As long as we play our own advantages，Follow -up difficulties，Focus on deepening reform and opening up，China will continue to create new miracles of economic development，The Chinese nation will definitely move towards the great rejuvenation in an unstoppable step。

　(The author is deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Member of the Party Group)