July 2023，A negative growth of the National Resident Consumer Price Index (CPI)，After the total level of price continues to run at a low level，The year -on -year CPI rose only 0.2%year -on -year，The core CPI rose 0.7%year -on -year，Below of about 3%of the annual goals and market expectations of about 3%at the beginning of the year。The weak level of the price of the price caused some concerns，Everyone is worried about the price of consumer goods、Long -term low operation will cause product demand to shrink，Consumption will decrease，Economic growth is expected to weaken，Its direct consequence is the decline in the production profit of the enterprise、Decrease in investment willingness，But because the fixed production cost and institutional cost of the enterprise have not decreased，The willingness to invest in corporate investment will be further reduced，to reduce recruitment and inventory，Bring a lot of resources for resources and unemployment，Eventually leading to economic stagnation。

From the lesson of the Japanese economic recession，Failure to guide the total level of price and reasonable return is an important reason for the long -term economic growth rate。Total level of price long -term operation will not only suppress demand，Form a "low desire society"，It will also lead to the failure of macro policy tools caused by the expected solidification、The risk of recession of the real economy spreads to the financial field，Eventually leading to a heavy difficulty return。Based on this，It is necessary to pay attention to the price operation trend at a high degree，Be alert to the potential risks brought by the long -term low operation of the price。

Actually，Whether it is from historical trends or current features，my country has not showed a trend that entered long -term currency tightening。Objective to look at the factors that affect my country's price trend and their changes，help to clarify the current debate on price issues。

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Similar to the downward cycle that appeared in the past，The current low level of the current price is the result of the change of economic growth。Affected by the new crown epidemic and international environment，Insufficient effective demand in China，Consumption and investment decline，The profit decline in the field of industrial bet365 best casino games manufacturing，Comprehensive reflection at the price level。But the reason and degree of comprehensive analysis of the total level of the total level of price，It is not difficult to see，Its trend has obvious structural and short -term characteristics。

Current，Total level of price fell and below one of the main reasons for expected，It is the downlink of food prices, especially pork, etc.。Due to excess supply，Pork prices continue to face decreased pressure。Data display，2023 The whole year of my country's pigs out of 726.62 million heads，increased by 3.8%year -on -year，The highest in the past 20 years; the total output of the main livestock and poultry meat is as high as 96.41 million tons，The highest in 20 years。A large amount of supply has led to a significant decline in the price of domestic pork。According to the food calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics, the pull of CPI，October 2023 is -0.75%，and the same period of 2022 is 1.26%。Low operation of food prices is the key to the current total price level。

Changes in international input factors are another factor affecting the change of total domestic price level。On the one hand，Grain、Energy and other international commodities supply gradually stabilize。Due to the good weather and production conditions of the main place of production、The recovery of transportation channels in important areas such as Black Sea，International food supply is sufficient。According to the prediction of international food and agricultural organizations，2024 Grain harvest and inventory will hit a new high，The price level has a stable decrease。Recent，The US -related main futures contract quotation of Chicago Commodity Futures Exchange is displayed，Global wheat futures prices have dropped sharply，The decline is close to 21%; the price of corn futures falls about 31%，Creating the largest decline since 2013，ending the rising trend for several years; the price of soybeans that need to be imported in my country is also significantly reduced。The continuity effects of OPEC production and the continuity of the Russian -Ukraine conflict have weakened，The impact of slowly superimposed global economic recovery and increase in US energy exports，Resource Energy Energy Version price may remain steadily declining。According to statistics，2023 Brent crude oil price fell 10.32%per barrel price，West Dedsas medium crude oil at the New York Commodity Futures Exchange fell 10.73%，all set the largest annual decline since 2020。If there is no sudden geopolitical event and major adjustment bet365 Play online games of the international energy consumption pattern，International commodity prices have no support for continuous rise。On the other hand，To cope with high inflation，The main central bank of the United States and Europe has to frequently adjust the monetary policy，Make its inflation level a large drop，Objectively reducing the input effect on the total level of domestic price levels in my country。

To sum up，Phase reduction of economic growth，Investment and consumption is still in the recovery period，Overclocking pork and other important commodities supply excess supply and low international commodity price，It is an important reason for the low level of the total price level。These factors have obvious stage and short -term。

From the historical trend of the total price fluctuations in my country，There is a certain inertia for running at a low level of price，But the last time is relatively limited。A few typical downward cycles in the past，For example，It lasted for more than two years，After the total price level gradually rises to a reasonable level; September 2001，CPI year -on -year from positive to negative，and lasted for a year and a half; 2009，Affected by the international financial crisis，CPI again to grow again，After 9 months from negative to positive。Visible，With my country's government macro -control means gradually mature，The cycle of the low position is shortening，I also accumulated good policy experience in responding to the operation of low prices，With the ability to make targeted regulation。

　　Stability of economic development is the key

The total level of price is the result of the macroeconomic operation，It is a manifestation of changes in the supply and demand pattern。Current，China's economic overall retraction is rising to a good situation。From the perspective of industrial operation，The added value of industrial industries above 2023 increased by 4.6%year -on -year，Production of key industries as a whole，28 of the 41 industrial categories have maintained growth。The basic disk of the top ten key industries is stable，The average growth rate exceeds 5%，The average growth level of the added value of industrial added value above the national size。From the perspective of consumption，The rapid growth of online consumption effectively drives domestic demand recovery。2023，China Express business volume has completed a total of 13207 billion pieces，increased by 19.4%year -on -year，Industry business volume is constantly refreshing records。From the perspective of employment，From January bet365 live casino games to November 2023，350,000 people year -on -year，The situation of gradual improvement of employment is relatively obvious。From the perspective of currency supply，2023 Guangyi currency supply (M2) balance and social financing scale stock increased by 9.7%and 9.5%year -on -year, respectively，Keep a faster growth。Looking at the recovery of economic growth，In 2023, my country's GDP exceeds 126 trillion yuan，The Chinese economy performed well around。2024，my country will continue to introduce a series of policies around expanding domestic demand，Effectively increase consumption and investment willingness，Stable residents' employment and income expectations。As the domestic economy gradually stabilizes and recovers，Increased income and employment expansion of residents help further stimulate demand，The most fundamental influencing factor becomes the most fundamental level of the future of the future of a mild price and return to a reasonable level。

，The low base in 2023 will have an impact on the general level of price in the future。2023，my country's industrial producer's factory price index (PPI) decreases significantly、CPI rose fatigue year -on -year weak，The restriction of high base numbers is also one of the important reasons。Facing a higher base in 2023, the price is different，2024 corresponding to the relatively low base in 2023，This will provide support for a small rebound of inflation。

　　The long -term trend of stable operation has not changed

From the long term，The influencing factors that decide the total price operation of my country and their long -term trends have not undergone fundamental changes，No Japanese -style long -term currency tightening will appear。

First，The total price level is a comprehensive manifestation of economic growth and income changes。According to calculation，At this stage, China's potential growth rate is about 5.5%-6.5%。Stance in the economic maintenance of the economy、In the case of stable macro policy，The total price level will be kept at a reasonable level。

Next，Food、Energy and other important products are still in the "tight balance" supply，Support for long -term price stability。Current，my country's food production capacity is continuously improved，Realized "Ensure for the absolute safety of rations、Grain safety strategy requirements for grain "basic self -sufficient"，But the overall supply and demand is still in the state of "tight balance"。With industrialization、Accelerated advancement of urbanization，Residents' food consumption structure will continue to upgrade，Grain demand may be further bet365 best casino games improved，The supply and demand gap will also exist for a long time。Similar to food safety，my country's energy supply also has problems in demand gaps。According to statistics，In 2022, my country's crude oil rely on the exterior reached 71.2%，Natural gas depends on foreign dependence of more than 40%。Grain、The "tight balance" pattern of energy supply will provide important support for price formation。

Last，The rise in the price of service products will become an important reason for the total price of the future price。Comparison with the "large price and low price" of the life service industry，Pension、Education and other service products continue to rise。In CPI composition，"Other Products and Services" category includes "other supplies" and "other service categories".，"Other Services", "Pension Service", "Hotel Accommodation", "Beauty Beauty Bath", "Financial Insurance", "Other Miscellaneous Products", "Jewelry Watch"，Each small category includes several subclasses。Because other types of products and services are not high in CPI，The price trend has been ignored。In the aging of the population、In the context of frequent occurrence of seasonal diseases，Medical、Service and other services in the elderly accounted for the proportion of residents' consumption.，An important influencing factor in becoming a rising living cost of residents。The impact of the rise in the price of service products on the total price level should be analyzed from the positive and negative aspects。On the one hand，Advanced to service product prices helps promote the supply -side structural reform of the supply side of service commodities，Constantly enrich the types and quality of service products，Promoting the improvement of residential benefits。On the other hand，The increase in the proportion of service products in total expenditure may also increase the living cost of residents, especially for low -income groups。Contact between the price trend between the service product and the CPI，It is a question that needs to be focused on in the future。

　Policy coordination and coordination to help expand domestic demand

Although the current current price level is low, the operation has obvious phase characteristics，But the insufficient demand and other issues still need to pay attention to。Since 2023，Party Central Committee、Multiple important meetings of the State Council make important deployments for this，Release positive signals，Do a good job of management，Multiple measures to expand the total social needs。

From the focus of policy deployment，Popularity to promote consumption Bet365 lotto review expansion is the focus。According to the historical trend of data from the previous month,，The first and third quarters of each year is the peak period of rising total price levels。For this，Since 2023，Various policies and measures have been introduced throughout the country，Vigorously develop digital consumption、Green Consumption、Health Consumption、Smart Consumption and "Trendy Tide" Consumption，Promote the upgrading of consumption of residents。2024 Spring Festival holiday，The number of tourists from key cultural tourism attractions in the country reaches 123 million people，increased by 22.8%from the same period in 2023;，National online retail sales are close to 800 billion yuan，increased by 8.9%compared to the same period of the lunar calendar in 2023。

2024，my country's macro policy will further make further efforts，Provides a good policy environment for economic growth and stable operation of prices。According to the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2023，Finance、Currency、Employment、Industry、Area、Technology、Environmental protection and other policies will strengthen coordination and coordination，Macro policy will be more flexible and moderate、Precise and effective。With stable investment、Consumption、The implementation of a series of policy measures such as stabilizing employment and stable expectations，China's economic recovery trend will be further consolidated，The total price level will also gradually return to reasonable level。

Stable and promoting reform as the focus

Reasonable guiding investment and consumption in key areas is stable market expectations、A solid foundation that promotes the reasonable rise of the price of price。Current，Many new changes have occurred in the consumer field，Sales of durable consumer goods gradually recovered，entertainment travel、Sports events, etc. become a new consumption growth point。Investment in key areas in the country remains rapidly，High -tech industrial investment has become a new engine for economic growth。The smooth advancement of the expected measures，It will further expand domestic demand and economic stability，It will also cause the total level of price to produce corresponding changes。

While paying attention to the short -term fluctuations and stable market expectations of the total price level，You should also see，Establishing a price policy system that meets the requirements of high -quality development is the focus of price work in the new period。According to the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session Bet365 app download of the 19th CPC Central Committee and the National "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" outline deployment，The overall goal of my country's deepening price mechanism reform is，By 2025，Competitive fields and link prices are mainly determined by the market，The scientific pricing mechanism of the network -type natural monopoly link is comprehensively established，Energy resource price formation mechanism is further improved，The price control mechanism of important people's livelihood products is more sound，Public service price policy is basically perfect，The price policy system that meets the requirements of high -quality development is basically established。The realization of this goal not only helps to eliminate obstacles to my country's economic system reform，It will also better improve resources and energy、​​Public services and other important commodity cost compensation mechanisms，Lay the foundation for the gradual rise of the total price level。

　(The author is the Dean of the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher; Director of the Editorial Department of "Finance and Economics"、Associate Researcher)