From its rise and development before and after World War II to the present,International Relations and Diplomacy Research from the bet365 sign up bonus code Approach,Experienced personality research、Three stages of cognitive research and emotional research,The research method combines the characteristics of international relations and psychology research。First,Due to the inaccessibility of the research object,Relevant psychological quantitative and experimental methods cannot be directly operated。Therefore,Indirect distance research methods are more popular,For example, text analysis、Expert survey data analysis、Traditional psychoanalysis has become the mainstream methodology。Secondly,Traditional cases and comparative analysis,Becoming a mainstream empirical verification method。Due to the inaccessibility of the research object、Political psychological variables are competitive variables and other characteristics of the mainstream system and other variables,The political science method of comparative case design is more commonly used,This is actually a qualitative comparative design。Again,The causal role of political psychological variables,Need to use more detailed process tracing method for analysis。Last,The early method is case analysis、Comparative analysis,And combined with diplomatic history、Decision History,Recently started using comprehensive case verification、Experimental hypothesis refinement、Quantitative analysis and other multivariate methods。In view of this,With the use of multiple methods in international bet365 sign up bonus code,In the future, domestic academic circles should integrate more multiple research methods,Scientific nature that is conducive to theoretical innovation、Accuracy and the power to enhance logical induction and verification。Qualitative methods are still the mainstream of theoretical innovation in international bet365 sign up bonus code,For example, Robert Jervis, the most famous person in the cognitive school, is a representative of traditional qualitative methods。Represented by the 2017 special issue of "International Organization" (IO) magazine,The latest frontier focuses on leaders、Analysis of public behavioral decision-making preferences,Reflects today’s trend of using multiple and comprehensive methods,Highlights the mutual complementarity of qualitative and quantitative aspects in microscopic theory。
Precisely describe the interpreting bet365 sign up bonus code and the interpreted bet365 sign up bonus code
The uniqueness of international bet365 sign up bonus code theory lies in its emphasis on leaders、The political influence of psychological variables of political elites,But due to the implicit psychological variables of leaders、Features such as not being directly observed,Descriptive analysis of the psychological factors and types of leaders,Need to combine qualitative logical abstraction、Thought processes such as classification,The most basic such as conceptualization、Type design,and quantitative textual content analysis、Technical operations such as encoding conversion。Conceptualization of political psychological variables、Variable,To a large extent, the facts need to be connoted、Abstraction of essential attributes,Specific type distinction at the same time,For example, the personality type of leaders is from qualitative classification to classification based on personality traits。At the same time,Policy Preferences、Discrimination of belief system,Also requires text data extraction。Quantitative text content analysis combined with qualitative type analysis,Can more accurately distinguish the types of leaders,And provide technical support。
Personality traits of leaders、Cognitive Style、Implicit psychological variables such as emotional patterns,Can be used as an independent variable that affects political consequences,Can also be used as a dependent variable for an important part of political phenomena,How to accurately describe this unique microscopic psychological fact,Is the primary task of international bet365 sign up bonus code research。Implicit characteristics of psychological variables,Decided to adopt a more scientific method of data acquisition。Many bet365 sign up bonus code scholars have developed their own text coding methods,This text-based testing method,Not directly using the self-report scale tested by ordinary people in personality psychology,It requires the conversion of political indicators and the "long-distance" technical operation of data acquisition methods。In the context of the big data era,Analysis of leaders’ political and psychological traits relies on more diverse data sources,such as public remarks、Government text、Acquirable data such as network data。
Observe and refine the psychological laws of bet365 sign up bonus code politics
Extract corresponding international political psychological laws from international political and diplomatic phenomena,It is the process of forming research hypotheses for specific research questions。For example, the typical induction method of a single case,General development and abstraction from typical or idiosyncratic cases,Of course,This also requires comparative analysis within the overall case population。In Research on Leaders in International bet365 sign up bonus code,Classic or heterogeneous single case studies have become an important breakthrough point for theoretical innovation。The most classic study on the personality of the American president,It is a single case psychoanalysis of former US President Wilson by Alexander George and Juliette George,Summary of Wilson’s unique personality traits,That is, flexibility in the pursuit of power,Rigidity and stubbornness in the use of power,Both originate from Wilson’s relationship with his father when he was growing up。This character trait runs through different periods of Wilson’s life,For example, becoming the president of Princeton University、American Presidential Period。Social psychological research on presidential decision-making,Also by analyzing relevant classic failure cases,For example, the case of the Bay of Pigs fiasco in Cuba,Promoted scholars to refine the team decision-making psychology of "group think"。
Since the rules of strategic behavior of leaders are difficult to obtain through quantitative techniques such as experimental surveys,So generally speaking,Existing mainstream research is through experimental surveys of college students or a wider public,Acquired under the assumption of limited rationality of actors,How do people deal with international politics、Hypothesis on Diplomatic Issues。This experiment on the decision-making psychology of actors,Characteristics of strategic decision-making that can be extended to leaders。Therefore,Psychological experiments on strategic decision-making and behavioral choices at the level of ordinary people,Helps to understand leaders’ decision-making preferences and their psychological mechanisms in the face of internal and external pressure,To make up for the shortcomings of qualitative methods in extracting corresponding hypotheses from case phenomena,For example, it is difficult to directly observe the psychology of decision-making、Micro-level variables and their functions in the strategic interaction center,And it is not easy to rule out other more macroscopic aspects、The influence of material variables。Therefore,Typical or idiosyncratic leader、Decision-making cases are an inductive approach to theoretical innovation in international bet365 sign up bonus code,Based on college students、Online decision-making and interactive experiments,is an analogy path to the source of new hypotheses in theoretical innovation。These two paths can complement each other,Complement each other。
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International bet365 sign up bonus code focuses on exploring how political psychological factors affect relations between countries、Diplomatic behavior, etc.,Diplomatic decision-making、The psychological rules of strategic behavior and interaction are verified as follows。First,The traditional case analysis method describes the historical process in detail,Tracking how relevant psychological factors have a causal effect on the strategic consequences of international politics,The mechanism by which its effects can be observed。This generally requires a more sophisticated case comparison design to control competing variables,And process tracking based on more detailed historical details,Reveal the processes and nodes of the causal mechanism。Secondly,Quantitative methods are based on the larger sample population corresponding to the independent variables and dependent variables,Verifying its average causal effect requires a richer cross-case sample。When relevant sample data sets are available,Combining quantitative analysis operations and qualitative logical analysis,At the same time combined with detailed historical process tracking,Can enrich and improve the strength of causal arguments。
Taking the prevention of endogeneity of causal effects as an example,If we explore the causal effect of summit diplomacy on the signing of economic cooperation agreements between countries (or the relationship between bet365 sign up bonus code emotions and the contact hypothesis),There may be endogeneity。The approach to qualitative research is,Detailed analysis of the summit diplomacy process on relevant important cases,Explore the specific causal processes between the two,Especially the issue of identifying the time sequence between the two,This requires enrichment、Authoritative and accurate first-hand information。Or convert the endogeneity problem into a possible missing real cause variable problem,Then explore the real cause variables behind it。The processing of quantitative research is,By choosing more objective instrumental variables,Analyze the causal effect of instrumental variables on independent variables of summit diplomacy,But it has no substantial causal effect on the dependent variable inter-country cooperation。Overall,The effective combined use of quantitative and qualitative methods can enhance the strength of causal arguments。Due to the difference in research questions based on qualitative and quantitative verification,Specifically there are different conventions for the sample population size for specific data,Whether quantitative and qualitative verification methods are combined in a specific study,And what specific strategies and techniques to adopt,Depends on the characteristics of the research questions and theoretical hypotheses。
Due to the implicit characteristics of political psychological variables,Research on international bet365 sign up bonus code requires the intervention of quantitative techniques,So that facts can be described and explained more accurately。In demonstrating the political effects of micro-level psychological variables,The advantage of qualitative analysis is,Able to meticulously track and verify the process of cause and effect。And more rigorous comparative design and appropriate quantitative analysis operations,Contributing to a clearer causal role in international bet365 sign up bonus code、Reveal intuitively and powerfully。In view of this,Effective and comprehensive use of traditional conceptual logic、Case design、Experimental Investigation、Text analysis and other methods,Can better promote the innovation of micro-theory of international politics and its logical refinement、Self-consistent,This is also the reality and trend in the comprehensive use of methods in international bet365 sign up bonus code in European and American circles。current,In the Chinese International Relations Academic Circle,The research path of bet365 sign up bonus code still relies on traditional qualitative analysis such as case studies、Logical induction method is the main method,Related text analysis、Experimental design and other aspects have also been carried out to a certain extent。Overall,Future theoretical innovation will integrate multiple research methods in describing and explaining facts,Is a necessary method for theoretical innovation,It is also a basic requirement with the awareness of multiple research methods in the international relations academic community。
(The author is a professor at the School of bet365 sign up bonus code Relations, Renmin University of China)
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