This series of global financial governance system reform has improved the previous governance operation model and effect,But it has not changed the basic form of international financial power competition。The current international financial security has not been substantially improved,Instead, due to the intensification of the competition and friction of financial power in the great power,Financial security risks further increase。
The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 promoted the reform of the global financial governance system,and the international order of liberalism under the leadership of the US after the war brings challenges。So far,Crisis has been more than ten years,The concept and practice of global financial governance have changed greatly,Involved in the currency system、Financial Supervision、International financial institutions、Accounting Guidelines、Financial infrastructure、Macroeconomic policy and other fields。But,Do these changes create a more secure and stable international financial system than before the crisis?
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There are many opinions on the cause of the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008。Economists pay more attention to national or international economic and financial factors,If there are problems in the macroeconomic development model、Financial liberalization、Regulatory arbitrage、Financial Securities、Failure of US monetary policy、Sino -US trade "imbalance"、International Monetary System、The wealth gap between the country、Unreasonable payment system at the country and international level。There are also some researchers on the basis of their theoretical paradigm more strongly adjusting the influence of political factors。For example,New Liberals blame the crisis on the internal defects of the financial sector,Such as cyclical and systemic Bet365 app download risk,Not the implementation of new liberal thoughts and policies with economic liberalization as its core。For this,Realists criticize the flood of neo -liberal thought in economics and economic systems,and accused it of the effect of the Domino brand between the country。In the eyes of realists,The international financial system is part of the international system,Therefore, it is also disorderly,and will lead to crisis。Constructist thinks,The above material factors are not enough to explain the economic or financial crisis,and emphasize that such as identity、Human factors such as concepts and culture,I believe that new liberal thoughts played an important role in shaping the main behavior of the market,and finally lead to the current crisis。
From the perspective of financial governance,The reason for the financial crisis in 2008 can be summarized as three main factors: defects of the international monetary system、U.S. domestic policy errors and insufficient financial supervision,and poor international financial supervision。These three reasons represent the three different stages formed by the crisis。It is due to the defects of the international monetary system,A large amount of liquidity funds enter the US market,and lead to the so -called macroeconomic imbalance between China and the United States,The huge deficits of the U.S. frequent projects and the continuous rising foreign debt correspond to the huge surplus and huge foreign exchange reserves of China's frequent projects。US domestic monetary policy errors and financial regulatory relaxation,As a result, the real estate market bubble、Securities of housing mortgage and other unsustainable financial innovation,and finally the sub -loan crisis that eventually induce the real estate market。and the international financial regulatory system is unable to predict、Prevent and prevent the spread of the US subprime mortgage crisis to spread to the financial industry and the real economy,Especially the spread from the US domestic market to the international market。Compared bet365 best casino games to macro theory,Interpretation of the perspective of financial governance,Point a clearer direction for the financial system reform in the post -crisis era。
The progress of the financial system in the post -crisis era has made different progress in the reform of the financial system
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,Domestic and international financial regulators quickly take action,to solve or relieve the above three major problems。First,All sectors of society have proposed various international monetary system reform plans,Frequent solution to the macroeconomic imbalance between China and the United States。Next,The United States, as the birthplace of the crisis, adopted the expansion monetary policy with quantitative easing as its core,and launched a financial regulatory reform with the "Dodge -Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Law" as the main content。again,Significant changes in the global financial governance structure,A new mesh governance system industry has formed,The level of international financial supervision has been strengthened to a certain extent。From the perspective of economics and finance,,This reform of the global financial system designed to make up for the defects of the old system,Get more fruitful results。According to relevant reports,After the reform,Large banks have a decrease in leverage and better liquidity,The risk of "big but not pour" is effective control through establishing a disposal mechanism,Overseas derivatives market becomes simpler and transparent,Non -bank financial intermediaries with financial risks have decreased significantly; since the outbreak of the crisis,The market capacity and structure of the banking industry、Business model and profitability has undergone structural changes,It shows that the banking industry has become more stable; the international financial regulatory framework of the post -crisis era has been repaired and improved。Visible,Compared to the old system before the crisis,The current international bet365 Play online games financial system seems to be becoming more secure。
But,Reform results in different fields are relatively different。First, the reform of the international monetary system has fallen into trouble,The problems before the crisis have not been effectively solved。Second, the global macroeconomic imbalance has received high attention in the post -crisis era,But the main country has a large difference in the cause of imbalance,And this difference further hinders the sustainable adjustment of global macroeconomic imbalances。For example,China and other emerging countries believe that the defects of the international monetary system (especially the US dollar hegemony) are the main reasons for global economic imbalance。So,RMB internationalization and international monetary system reform becomes its main appeal。and the United States blame the main reason for the exchange rate intervention in emerging countries,The Trump government tries to make unilateral adjustments through frictional means such as trade protection。Third, the core concept of international financial supervision has successfully developed from micro -prudential supervision to macro -prudential supervision,Banking、Supervision rules in the insurance industry and securities industry have been strengthened,Specific performance as the revision and implementation of international rules such as "Basel Agreement III", "Insurance Core Rules", "Securities Regulatory Objectives and Principles"。Fourth, a certain result of the reform of international financial institutions。For example,Entrance of the Ministerial Conference of the G20 (G20) Group (G20)、International Clearance Bank (BIS) absorb more emerging national members、International Monetary Fund (IMF) voting right and share adjustment,, etc.。
International financial risks under power competition intensify
More importantly,Analysis of the above perspective of economics and financial science,The core factors of financial cooperation and competition between the country -financial power。Reform since the outbreak of the financial bet365 Play online games crisis in 2008,Although improved the global financial governance operation model and effect,But it has not changed the basic form of international financial power competition,and international financial power competition is the decisive factor of international financial security。In this way,The current international financial security has not been substantially improved,Instead, due to the intensification of the competition and friction of financial power in the great power,Financial security risks further increase,Specific performance in the following aspects。
First,In the context of the change of international order,The competition for international currency hegemony will be even more intense,The prospect of reform of the international monetary system is dim。The post -war international currency system with the US dollar as the core is the foundation and performance of the US hegemony,Although this system has been trapped in "Trifen's dilemma",But it still lasted for more than half a century。Even after the disintegration of the Bretton Forest system,USD is still in an hegemony in the international currency system。Any international monetary system reform proposal that may weaken the status of the US dollar,All will be strongly opposed by the United States,The stubborn illness of the international currency system is exactly that the currency of the sovereign state has served as the international standard currency。So,In foreseeable future,The substantial reform of the international monetary system will be very difficult,Main countries will strive to promote the internationalization of the country's currency,In order to overcome the adverse effects on the hegemony of the US dollar。Relative decline of the political and economic strength of the United States,The competition between the international currency hegemony maintenanceer and the challenger will become more and more intense。
2,Financial games and policy adjustments that are easy to induce direct financial friction。Under the above international currency system,Bilateral financial and economic relations have appeared more seriously imbalance,On the one hand, the US debt is high; on the other hand,China and other emerging countries have accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves。The internal bet365 best casino games structure and policy adjustment of related countries should be the main way to govern imbalance,For example,The United States should adjust the debt economic model,And China has proposed reform goals such as supply -side structural reforms and promoting high -quality economic development。but,The Trump administration uses the trade friction method with neighbors,The huge cost of trying to transfer the imbalance。The ideas and methods of imbalance adjustment,not only the potential possibility and risk from trade friction to financial friction,It also endangers the international financial system,Security of the international system。
third,System path dependence and the obstruction of the vested interests of great powers,Reconstruction of major international financial institutions reform。Born in major international financial institutions after World War II,Especially the reform of the International Monetary Fund is directly related to the stability of the international financial system。The reform of these institutions has always been obstructed by the major vested interests,From the reform of the World Trade Organization to the establishment of the Group of 20th Group,From the change of the IMF special withdrawal right basket currency to the reform of the major financial standard formulation institution,Behind the change of each change is the game between the great powers。Power competition in international financial institutions,The pace of reform will be severely lagged behind the changes in international political and economic reality。
Fourth,International Financial System、The lagging of bilateral relations and the reform of international financial institutions,Cover the international financial system into a crisis cycle。Although the huge external impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 promoted the existing system、Reform of relations and systems,But the system path dependence and the vested interests of the great power are limited to one acceptable range,This leads to insufficient reform。Incorrect reform,or the reality of the development of the global financial governance system again,The crisis may be brewed and occurred again bet365 best casino games under the lagging global governance system,The history of the crisis of international finance is continued to write。
(Author Unit: School of Management of Zhou Enlai Government Management)
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