Cross intersection of European energy geopolitical changes
December 23, 2020 09:49 Source: "China Social Sciences" December 23, 2020 Total 2075 Author: Li Xinlei

2016 British "Brexit" referendum,Become one of the most sensational "Black Swan Incidents" in the world at that time,Push Britain to push Europe to the cusp of the "Drinking"。During the transition period of the past year,Britain and the European Union conducted multiple rounds of negotiations on the future relationship。Now,At the time of entering the countdown,The prospect of negotiations is still full of various uncertainty,The possibility of "hard Brexit" in the UK is still very likely。

The follow -up effect produced by Brexit not only affects its own development,It will also have a significant and far -reaching impact on the geographical structure of Europe。Energy is the bloodline of a country that can operate well,Brexit also changes European energy geopolitical structure at a historic crossroad。"Brexit: Issues and Challenges in the Energy Sector" (Cao Hui,China Social Science Press, October 2020),Provides us to understand the "tear process" of Brexit's "tearing process" of Brexit。

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The characteristics of this book are reflected in three aspects。The first is to close energy with climate problems during the analysis。Energy security has simply emphasized the availability of energy from the past、acquisition and burden,Gradually shift to a composite security that takes into account the dimension of energy green use,Emphasizing the green sustainability and de -carbonization of energy。Since 2007,EU integrates energy and bet365 live casino games climate change policies together,The foundation of becoming the EU's green normative leadership。The author thinks,After Brexit,If the UK is unwilling to perform energy and climate targets bound to the European Union,Then Britain and the European Union need to reach a new political agreement,Coordinate the energy relationship between the two parties。Brexit will inevitably trigger the EU re -evaluating its energy and climate change policies,If the European Union and the United Kingdom cannot reach a consensus that maintains the status quo,EU will have to revise energy and climate targets,The choice of path will affect the European Union's leadership in the global climate energy strategy pattern。

Second, the analysis of the empirical system of Brexit in Brexit。The author combines the "Policy Interpretation+Empirical Analysis" method,In -depth analysis of how Brexit influences the institutional character of its own energy regulatory agency in the European Union。The British EU Energy Regulatory Cooperation Bureau caused by Brexit、European Energy Regulatory EU Commission and other EU's internal energy market operation changes in the operation of the EU's internal energy market。Overall,Analysis of this empirical system is explained from 8 fields,Examine Brexit to Britain、EU in energy target、Decision process、Regulatory cooperation、Energy Security、Nuclear Energy Industry、Nuclear Energy Industry、No Agreement Brexit Arrangement、Multi -dimensional impact brought by relations with Ireland。

Third is to focus on the forward -looking path analysis of Brexit。Author through the Brexit process bet365 Play online games of Brexit,Proposal three core problems in the energy field,In what way Brexit will Brexit? What is the prospect of Britain in the European energy market after Brexit?,There are three possibilities in the internal energy market of the UK and the European Union: first,The UK signed a contract with the third country with the European Union,Maintain the connection and cooperation with the EU's internal energy market; second,The UK as the third country enforces the EU energy、Laws in related fields such as environment and competitiveness; third,Signing contract with the European Union,Create relevant mechanisms,Clearly explain the purpose of the third country to participate in the project、range、Process、Capital scale and employees。The author thinks,Even if the United Kingdom will withdraw from all the agreement and framework related to the EU's energy system,Its power market and natural gas will also have a "inextricable" relationship with the EU's internal energy market,To ensure the stability and safety of energy supply。This is especially important for Ireland and Britain in Northern Ireland。

Current,EU countries are experiencing the raging of the second wave of new crown pneumonia,At the same time,EU Green Revolution Plan has gradually become a public health crisis、Economic crisis、Core strategies for social crisis and climate crisis。Method、De、Italia、Spain、Dutch and other 18 countries, the Minister of Environment, published an open letter on April 11, 2020,I hope the "European Green Agreement" signed at the end of 2019 plays a core role in the EU Green Revolution Plan,Targeting 2050 "climate neutral" as the goal。May bet365 best casino games 18,Method、Development of the United Economic Recovery Initiative,It will speed up the economic green transformation、Performing the promise of climate change commitments as one of the pillars。May 27,The European Commission announced a recovery plan with a total value of 750 billion euros,Among them, a series of measures to support green transformation,"Trimination into a machine after the epidemic、The motivation to recover the economy ",Lay the foundation for Europe to move more modern and sustainable future。In this context,The progress of Brexit negotiations is not smooth,The possibility of "No Agreement Brexit" is constantly rising,What is the far -reaching impact of the transformation and change of European energy geographical structure? The core conclusion of the book analyzes the basic trend and development trend of the future European energy climate strategy pattern,Provided useful revelation。

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First,The cost of leaving the EU's energy market is higher than the EU。Brexit will not have a substantial impact on the existing energy market in the European continent (except Irish),It is also difficult to cause substantial impact on the functions and voting mechanisms of EU energy regulatory agencies,EU energy market integration construction around the "Energy Alliance",will be developed forward as always。And if Britain wants to keep a high liquidity、More mature and competitive power market,Then you need to continue to participate in the EU's internal energy market。So,The UK must not only abide by the management of the European Union regulatory agency,At the same time, it will Bet365 lotto review lose the right to vote and discourse in the EU Energy Supervision Bureau。But when there is no agreement with a Brexit,Manage in the energy hub、Co -construction of large energy projects、Judicial jurisdiction and regulations and regulations,The UK and the European Union seem to face dual -infusion results。

Next,Under multiple crises such as Brexit and the epidemic of new crown pneumonia,EU green recovery is ambitious。Because some EU energy targets have not been shared to member states,If renewable energy targets in 2030,These goals will not affect the EU after Brexit,EU's overall goal will not be affected by this and decline。Especially June 2018,EU legislature has increased the 2030 renewable energy target from the original 27%to 32%,List energy target as the first place in EU energy target,Expressing the confidence of the European Union to achieve energy and climate goals after Britain's Brexit。In terms of carbon market,In the short term,Britain withdrawing from the EU Carbon Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) may have negative effects such as carbon quota surplus,This is the company's hope to sell the British quota before Brexit。But in the middle and long term,Brexit will drive EU-ETS to develop in the direction of strong binding mechanism。

Last,After Brexit, Germany and France need to strengthen the coordinated leadership in the Energy Alliance。Brexit replaced the "French axis" instead of "British French" three -driving carriage。For a long time,Germany has always played the key role of the European economy "locomotive",It plays an important leading role in promoting EU energy transformation and green digital economy development。bet365 live casino games France is the only member of the UN Security Council in the EU member states、The only big country,This unique advantage helps France to lead the leadership of the European Union's political and defense field。

In the process of promoting the institutional construction of the energy alliance,Germany can pass energy security through collaborative leaders、Internal Market、Foreign policy and climate change are integrated together,Bring a new governance mode to EU energy,But the institutional development of this energy market integration is still full of many challenges。Current,Although Brexit does not cause a fatal threat to EU power and natural gas supply security,But the negative radiation effect brought by it,It will exacerbate the contradictions between Germany and Central and Eastern European countries in climate goals and energy transformation,For example, Polish will power the coal thermal power、Hungary and Bulgaria use nuclear power generation as an important power guarantee pathway,Surong the EU concept。This episode is reflected in Poland not long ago、Hungary opposes linked to the EU budget with the rule of law,As a result, the European Union's budget cannot be passed quickly。Another,So far,A close collaboration、High mutual trust、The recognized "French axis" has not been completely formed,Institutional reform in the Energy Alliance、Market integration、The renewable energy industry transitions to the market -oriented transition,There are still many differences between the two countries。For example, Germany has always opposed over marketization of renewable energy policy,The current EU New Law Bet365 app download has greatly reduced green energy subsidies,It has a big impact on the renewable energy industry,It also highlights that there are still contradictions between various systems in the EU green recovery process。

 (Author Unit: School of Political Science and Public Management, Shandong University)

Editor in charge: Chen Jing
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